东亚新贸易模式的形成与转型——基于中国地位及作用的考察

本文在分析东亚新贸易模式形成与发展的基础上得出结论:此次东亚贸易转型的核心即为中国经济的转型。随后,本文运用传统简化的引力模型,从分产品的视角考察中国在东亚区域内的市场提供能力,得出如下结论:无论是按产品分类还是按行业分类,中国在东亚区域内的市场提供能力随着自身经济的不断发展显著提升,这是中国在"新三角贸易"格局下作为地区出口平台的结果;中国提供的最终产品市场以资本品市场为主,最终消费品的吸收能力仍较弱;未来,中国最终产品市场提供能力的提升将有赖于最终消费品市场提供能力的提升,而这又取决于中国国内最终消费规模的扩大。     

台海两岸ICT制造业的贸易模式及其决定因素分析

本文基于中国台湾1993～2010年的贸易数据对台海两岸信息通信科技(ICT)制造业最终产品和零部件贸易模式进行解析,研究结果显示:台海两岸ICT制造业的贸易模式逐步从20世纪90年代以产业间贸易为主转变为21世纪以产业内贸易为主,这一点在零部件贸易中表现得尤为突出;无论是最终产品还是零部件,台海两岸ICT产品产业内贸易都以垂直产业内贸易为主,并且零部件产业内贸易中垂直产业内贸易所占比重明显高于最终产品;进一步分析ICT产品垂直产业内贸易中台湾的相对技术优势发现,无论是在最终产品还是零部件垂直产业内贸易中,台湾对大陆出口的高技术含量产品均占据优势份额且呈迅速上涨趋势。台海两岸ICT制造业的产业内贸易模式的实证检验表明,两岸ICT零部件的产业内贸易主要是由驱动ICT全球性生产网络发展的垂直专业分工链条的分解所导致,而ICT最终产品的产业内贸易则主要是由市场规模等需求性因素所导致。     

中国在东亚区域内的进口贸易分析

从"三角贸易"到"新三角贸易",东亚地区贸易模式都未能摆脱对外部市场的高度依赖,特别是对美国市场的依赖。中国作为区域内经济贸易大国,随着经济改革的日益深入及增长方式的转变,其在东亚区域贸易分工模式转变中的地位及作用将不断增强。本文以中国在东亚区域内的重要贸易伙伴国为研究对象,从世界和东亚两个区域范围入手,以进口份额分布与进口增长率分解指标按进口来源地和按产品分类的分布分别进行静态和动态分析,在此基础上对中国市场在东亚区域内的地位及作用进行深入研究。     

东亚区域生产网络的动态演变——基于零部件贸易产业链的分析

东亚区域生产网络已经成为东亚经济增长的核心特征,但尚缺乏对该生产网络系统勾勒的研究。本文借助投入产出表对国际贸易分类标准中的零部件划分进行修正,以产业链为基础系统总结了SITC(Rev3)第7、8类四分位最终产品所对应的零部件,进一步探讨了东亚产品竞争力的来源、区域生产网络的变迁以及两者之间的关系。我们发现:(1)东亚零部件贸易是其产品出口竞争力的重要来源;(2)诸多生产链交织形成了东亚区域生产分工网络,并呈现出不断强化、加深和技术升级的趋势;(3)中国经济的融合推动了东亚分工网络的发展和调整,成为区域内主要的零部件出口国,日本的主导地位逐渐削弱。     

东亚地区贸易自由化的福利影响及前景展望

东亚贸易自由化是全球区域贸易自由化的重要议题,但是,自从2002年中国与东盟、日本与新加坡达成自由贸易协定以来,东亚贸易自由化进展并不顺利。其原因在于东亚贸易自由化在整体呈现福利改进的同时,对主要参与国的部分产业产生了负面的影响,使得区域贸易自由化遭受了来自国内的较大阻力。作者根据全球贸易分析模型,分析了中国在东亚地区贸易自由化中的地位与应采取的战略。作者认为,中国在东亚贸易中的中心地位非常明显,而且有不断加强的趋势。中国要充分利用“市场中心”的优势,争取在东亚地区贸易自由化中占据主导地位。同时,为了减轻区域贸易自由化对中国制造业的负面影响,应当注重培养国内制造业的竞争力。     

中国对主要东亚经济体的贸易依存考察

从国(域)别、产品分类两层面,借助贸易份额等指标,考察中国对主要东亚经济体的贸易依存关系,发现东亚地区都是中国的传统贸易伙伴,市场(贸易)依赖较大,但依存程度总体上逐年下降,且变动趋势不对称的特征。总体上说,对亚洲新兴经济体的贸易依存关系基本稳定,对日本依存迅速下降,与东盟有较明显的制成品出口替代初级品出口的趋势。     

中国产品内分工的区域化与全球化北大核心CSSCISSCI

本文采用全世界范围内40个经济体作为总体样本,9个东亚经济体作为东亚区域性样本,并将总体样本按照收入水平划分为四组样本,分别对其进行回归检验。结果表明,中国的零部件进口仍然具有区域性特征,零部件出口则更趋于全球化。生产者服务进口促进了中国产品内分工的全球化发展趋势。从收入等级来看,区域性特征主要表现在中国对马来西亚和泰国的零部件进口方面。生产者服务进口则大大降低了中国与该收入等级零部件贸易的区域性特征。本文分析认为,中国零部件贸易的区域分布变化源于中国的加工贸易升级以及东亚生产网络的技术结构演变。由于生产者服务贸易等方面的原因,中国对东亚生产网络的依赖程度有所降低,未来中国的产品内分工将更加趋于全球化。     

中国在东亚－美国贸易链中的地位分析

随着经济全球化的发展，东亚与美国的贸易往来日益密切。中国作为东亚经济体的主要一员，在东亚-美国贸易链中发挥着重要的作用，正是中国这个巨大的市场把美亚贸易链顺利地连接起来。本文分析了近几年来中国对东亚主要经济体的贸易逆差和对美国的贸易顺差情况，同时对从东亚主要经济体进口的商品结构和对美国出口的商品结构进行了分析总结，得出了中国在东亚-美国贸易链中处于中低端的位置，最后指出中国向东亚国家进行产业转移和市场转移，减少对美国市场的依赖，从而提升中国在美亚贸易链中的地位。     

东亚与欧盟区域的产品需求结构与贸易模式

东亚和欧盟分别表现为外需主导型和内需主导型的贸易模式。两种不同的贸易模式对经济发展产生着不同的影响。由于东亚区域对外部最终产品市场的严重依赖,所以,后危机时代下,东亚贸易模式转型的必要性更加明显。但是,东亚贸易模式的转型将是一个长期的过程,而中国将在这个过程中发挥重要的作用。     

东亚产业内贸易发展状况及原因分析

近年来,东亚地区产业内贸易发展十分迅速。本文对东亚10个主要经济体1992-2005年的产业内贸易发展状况进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,产业内贸易已经成为东亚的主要贸易形式。在各类产品中,机械和运输设备(SITC7)的产业内贸易程度最高,且提高最快。产业内贸易发展的原因在于东亚地区产业内分工的不断深化以及基于生产环节专业化分工的产品零部件贸易的迅速发展。     

Impact of the US Economic Crisis on East Asian Economies： Production Networks and Triangular Trade through Chinese Mainland

This paper investigates the impact of the 2008 economic crisis on industries in East Asia. It attempts to identify the transmission mechanism and the magnitude of the impact of the crisis on industries in East Asia using the updated Asian international input–output table for 2008. The analyses reveal that the crisis significantly affected industrial output of the nine East Asian economies included in the present study. The economies that are deeply involved in production networks were affected most seriously. Our analyses also show that the impact was transmitted to East Asian industries through triangular trade, in which Chinese mainland imports parts and components from neighboring East Asian economies and then exports final products to the US and EU markets. Although such intricate production networks have improved the competitiveness of East Asian economies, they have also increased vulnerability to external shocks.     

Effects of China's Structural Change on the Exports of East Asian Economies

The Chinese economy is slowing down and is in the midst of a structural transformation from export‐led and investment‐led growth to domestic demand‐led and consumption‐led growth. While there are widespread concerns among China's trading partners about the effect of the slowdown in China's growth on their exports, China's structural changes are also likely to have a significant impact: for example, China will import fewer machines and more cosmetics. The central objective of the present paper is to empirically examine the effect of China's structural transformation on the exports of East Asian economies, which have close trade linkages with China. We find that economies that have failed to increase the share of consumption goods in their exports to China have suffered larger declines in their quantities of exports to China. In addition, economies that have suffered losses in their shares of China's parts and components imports have faced reductions in their shares in China's total imports.     

Ties Binding Asia,Europe and the USA

We investigate changes in Asia's regional and global trade linkages and their influence on macroeconomic relationships among Asia, Europe and the USA. We first document changes in tripartite trade patterns and discuss stylized facts about East Asia's trade structure, with particular focus on the role of China. China plays a critical role in the rapidly expanding intra‐Asian trade as an assembly and production center that supplies final goods for the advanced economies. However, China's trade shares in final goods with East Asia and in parts and components with Europe and the USA are rising, suggesting that the region's production chains are becoming increasingly integrated into the global business network. Empirical results from a panel vector autoregression model generally confirm increasingly mutual macroeconomic interdependence among East Asia, Europe and the USA. The findings suggest a future role for Asia as an important trade partner and balancing power in the world economy.     

China＇s Trade Acceleration and the Deepening of an East Asian Regional Production Network

China＇s recent surge in trade has been associated with its deepening but contrasting trade relations with its two groups of key trading partners. On the one hand, China＇ s trade surpluses with the USA and the EU have risen rapidly, reaching US$144bn and US$91bn in 2006, respectively. On the other hand, China is importing heavily from its Asian neighbors. This diverging pattern of trade relations between China and its main trading partners reflects the continuous expansion and intensification of a complex cross-border production network in Asia, particularly for consumer electronics. In the process of deepening manufacturing sharing, China serves as an essential export platform for firms headquartered in the more advanced economies. These firms export intermediate goods from the relatively more advanced Asian economies to their affiliates in China where these inputs are assembled and then shipped to key export markets, including primarily the USA and the EU. One apparent outcome of the growing processing and assembly trade is the increased interdependency among Asian economies, which are now more dependent on each other than ever. It has also led to substantial structural changes and technological upgrading in China＇ s traded goods.     

Patterns and determinants of intra-industry trade in Asia

Intra-industry trade (IIT) has gained in importance across Asia as a result of the rapid growth of Asian economies and their key role in the international fragmentation of production. This paper examines the level of IIT for 22 countries in East, Southeast, South, and Central Asia in 2003. IIT is measured as a multilateral trade-weighted index and is reported for ten different categories of goods in the primary and secondary sectors. In addition, the determinants of IIT are investigated using a Tobit regression model. The results indicate that ASEAN and the high-income countries in East Asia exhibit the highest levels of IIT, followed closely by China and India. R&D spending, openness, and a higher share of manufactured exports were found to promote IIT, while geographical distance and the difference in economic size had an adverse effect, especially for manufactured goods. The ASEAN free trade area was most prominently associated with IIT across all SITC categories. Central and South Asian regional trade agreements had a positive influence on IIT in primary products.     

China trade: Busting gravity's bounds

Since China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001, annual growth rates of its imports and exports have increased, and raised tensions between China and some of its major trading partners. Using a gravity model of trade, we find that China's orientation toward foreign trade is much greater than expected for an economy of its size and level of development. Our analysis shows that China's excessive orientation toward foreign trade (“over-trading”) varies substantially across countries and we consider various explanations for the over-trading. A comparison of China's export boom with the earlier export booms of more market-based East and Southeast Asian economies shows that China's export boom has exceeded earlier booms in magnitude but not in duration. We conclude with a discussion of the likely scale of future export and import flows from and to China.     

Tracing Trade Interdependence between EU and East Asia

Abstract

There have been two related trends shaping global trade during the past couple of decades: the increasing role of international supply chains and the rise of China. Increased complexity in global trade has generated a need to construct more processed trade data — trade in value added — in order to deepen our understanding of trade relations between countries. In this article, we present a broad picture of trade in value added between the EU28 and East Asian countries. We find that East Asia is important as a final demand and supply chain export destination, especially for Northern European countries, while for CEE countries it is more important as an import source for both final demand and supply chain trade. Trade with East Asia is least important for Southern European countries. The production structure of an EU country seems to be one of the main factors explaining the importance of supply chain trade with East Asian countries. The data also suggest that supply chain trade could support the growth of domestic value-added exports to the supply chain trade partner country as well as to other countries.     

中国出口市场选择与贸易转型升级——基于分类市场的比较研究

本文从出口市场这一新的视角,实证检验较之于以发达经济体为出口市场,以发展中经济体为出口市场是否更有利于中国出口贸易转型升级。结果表明,中国以发达经济体为出口市场,并非如要素禀赋理论所预期,出口被长期"锁定"在技术含量较低的商品;而以发展中经济体为出口市场,也并非如重叠需求等理论所预期,更有利于中国出口商品的技术含量升级。相反,以发达经济体为出口市场更有利于中国出口贸易的转型升级。本文认为,出现上述结果是中国融入产品内分工这一新的国际分工体系所致。因此,在后危机时代不断提高开放型水平,通过产业政策、科技政策以及利用FDI等,不断向产品内分工体系下的产品"高端"价值链攀升,是中国出口贸易转型升级的有效路径。     

China's emergence and the reorganisation of trade flows in Asia

The emergence of China has intensified the international segmentation of production processes within Asia, but has not created an autonomous engine for the region's trade, as Asia still depends on outside markets for its final goods exports. The reorganisation of production has weakened the position of the advanced economies in Asia's trade, but up to now has not severely affected the position of the emerging Asian economies. However, the deterioration of China's terms of trade raises the question of the sustainability of its recent growth strategy.     

ECFA的建立与海峡两岸垂直分工模式

通过计算中国大陆加入WTO以来中国大陆出口的垂直专业化比率,以及东亚各经济体的中间产品的来料比率及其贡献,本文发现,无论是在出口总量上,还是在台湾地区出口到中国大陆的主要产品,其对中国大陆垂直专业化的贡献程度从2002年以来一直在下降。这表明中国大陆不断深化的开放并没有促进海峡两岸产业链的进一步深化,相反,受此前台湾的"戒急用忍"政策所至,海峡两岸产业互补性垂直分工减弱。进一步采用GTAP模型模拟中国大陆参与东亚区域贸易自由化的各种不同场景,结果显示,通过ECFA参与中国大陆区域贸易自由化进程的三种模式均有利于提高台湾来料对大陆出口垂直专业化的贡献度,有利于台湾走出在东亚分工体系中被边缘化的困境,优化海峡两岸产业垂直分工体系。反之,如果中国大陆率先与其他东亚国家实现全面贸易自由化,会给两岸产业垂直分工模式带来一定的负面影响。