全面利率市场化条件尚不成熟

全国人大财经委经济室研究员许健博士认为,"在我国全面利率市场化的条件尚不成熟". 利率作为一种最重要的价格,它不仅反映资金供求关系,而且对提高宏、微观经济运行质量有着决定性作用.利率市场化根本含义是放松利率管制直到最后彻底放开利率,由市场供求关系决定利率的高低.但是利率市场化是一柄双刃剑,在条件成熟时放开利率则对宏观经济发展可起着良性循环作用,反之,如果是一些条件不具备时,则对宏观经济起着负面作用,甚至出现失控局面.     

利率市场化及商业银行的利率风险管理

随着利率管制的逐步放开,我国利率市场化进程开始加快推进。与此同时,商业银行越来越面临一个不容忽视的风险:利率风险。本文对我国利率市场化的基础、推进的迫切性、可能采取的模式等进行了分析,并针对利率市场化对我国银行业的影响,提出了我国商业银行应采取的利率风险管理的若干建议。     

基于利率市场化的利率风险管理研究

随着我国利率市场化进程的推进,商业银行面临的利率风险将日益凸现。如何管理商业银行的利率风险问题将是摆在商业银行面前一个非常现实的问题。本文首先对我国商业银行所面临的利率风险进行分析,然后对商业银行在新的利率市场化条件下提高定价能力和加强利率风险管理提出见解。     

利率改革迈向市场

利率作为经济发展的基本经济杠杆,在经济运行中有着重要的地位。但是,我国现行利率制度还存在许多问题,主要是利率总水平偏低,利率结构不合理以及中央银行在利率上统得过死等,利率的作用难以正常发挥。 对此,我们提出“利率市场化改革”,只有利率市场化,中央银行的调控机制才能顺畅运行;只有利率市场化,中央银行才能有效制导整个货币政策的运行,吞吐基础货     

我国利率调整的投资效应分析

１９９６ 年以来，我国连续六次下调利率，一方面体现了我国宏观经济调控方式由直接性向间接性转变，另一方面也反映出利率调整对经济的刺激作用逐渐增强。本文针对现在社会上对利率下调存在的疑义，阐述了利率下调对于促进投资的积极作用。通过分析，笔者认为，我国微观经济主体的利率敏感性已逐渐增强，投资主体的预期也随经济形势好转发生较大变化，因此利率调整可以通过拉动投资促进经济增长。但是，由于我国经济发展的阶段性限制，对利率的调控作用也不能过分夸大，利率调控机制还有待进一步完善     

改革利率管理体制推进利率市场化进程

利率从一定意义上说是银行借贷币货金的价格，是反映资金供求的“晴雨表”，近几年，为适应国家宏观调控的需要，中国人民银行自1996年5月1日以来已连续七次下调人民币存贷款利率，加之存款实名制的实施及对居民个人储蓄存款实名制的实施及对居民个人储蓄存款征收利息所得税等。这一系列货币政策的贯彻实施，对于合理分流资金，减轻企业利息负担，分散金融机构信用风险，改变存款结构等发挥了一定的积极作用，然而据笔调查了解，由于现行利率运行机制的弊端，当前利率管理中还存在着许多矛盾和问题，影响了利率政策效应的有效发挥，对现有利率管理体制进行改革成了社会各界普遍关注的焦点。     

浅析利率市场化

一、目前我国利率的市场化程度 　　在一国经济中，利率政策在实现内外均衡、保证金融资源有效配置、促进经济增长中起到重要作用。利率市场化政策推行的直接目的是消除价格扭曲、产生客观的市场信号、引导金融资源合理流动、改善社会资源配置、提高经济效率、促进经济增长。我国的社会主义市场经济体制已初步确立，利率市场化是我国金融体制改革的目标之一，也是需要我们研究的重要课题。 　　从我国利率改革的进展看，利率形成的市场化已经取得了一定的进展，目前我国正在向关键性阶段迈进。经过十几年的利率改革，我国部分利率已经或基本…     

利率市场化问题探析

一、利率市场化的内涵及其功能 利率市场化就是要建立起由市场供求决定金融机构存贷款利率的市场利率体系.具体地说,就是将中央银行用计划手段确定的利率转变为由金融机构自身依据其资金余缺状况、边际成本、市场资金供求状况、银企合作关系以及风险程度等因素而确定的资金价格形成机制.近年来,随着我国市场经济体制的逐步建立,利率管理的程度正在不断地松动,这标志着利率市场化己成为必然趋势,而且资金价格在市场经济中的资源配置、宏观调控、自我约束等方面发挥的作用也越来越明显.     

我国利率市场化改革研究

利率市场化是经济市场化的必然.利率作为连接商品市场和金融市场经济主体的枢纽,在货币政策的制定和执行中发挥着日益重要的作用.只有积极推进利率市场化改革,才能发挥利率调控金融的杠杆作用和对金融资源的配置功能.     

利率互换与我国商业银行利率风险管理

随着我国金融改革的深化,金融市场的不断开放,市场化利率逐渐形成,利率风险越来越受到金融机构从业者的关注。在我国开展利率互换交易的条件基本成熟的情况下,引入的利率互换为我国商业银行的利率风险管理展开了新的一页。由于仍存在阻碍利率互换交易发展的定价、风险、制度及供需问题,所以需要从加快利率市场化;加快相关制度建设;加快市场培育,增加参与主体;完善信用风险防范等方面来推进商业银行的利率风险管理。     

Completing China's Interest Rate Liberalization

China's recent removal of the last ceiling restriction on deposit rates in October 2015 is a milestone in interest rate liberalization, but not the end of it. International experience suggests that, without structural and quantitative reforms, simply freeing interest rates can result in major financial stress. Before China's central bank can completely relinquish implicit or explicit guidance for commercial banks' interest rate determination, it needs to accomplish two tasks: improvement of commercial banks' pricing capability as well as the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Both tasks require significant reform measures to be initiated, such as enforcing market discipline, forming a new monetary policy framework, developing money and capital markets, abandoning quantitative restrictions on credit and reforming the financial regulatory system.     

Interest Rate Pass‐Through in Mongolia

This study empirically examines the interest rate pass‐through of the money market interest rate to bank lending and bank deposit interest rates in Mongolia using both linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models. The results from the empirical analysis using data from December 2002 to September 2015 suggest that interest rate pass‐through is generally weaker, slower, and asymmetric in Mongolia. The new findings provide evidence that: (i) interest rate pass‐through has improved over time; (ii) the bank deposit rate has a higher long‐run interest rate pass‐through and slower adjustment than the bank lending rate; and (iii) there is a negative long‐run asymmetric pass‐through with respect to the bank lending rate and a positive long‐run asymmetric pass‐through with respect to the bank deposit rate.     

Explaining Interest Rate Spreads in Ghana*

Abstract: The question of the optimal spread between bank lending rates and rates that banks pay on deposits, which is fair to bankers, depositors and borrowers, has dogged economies for some time. In Ghana, there is widespread perception that the spread is too wide. Bankers, on the other hand justify the spread on the basis of economic variables that affect them. This paper contributes to the literature by identifying, in the case of Ghana, the short‐run response of the net interest margin of banks to changes in bank‐specific, industry‐specific and macroeconomic variables within the broad framework of Ho and Saunders (1981) . We find that increases in the following factors significantly increase net interest margin — bank market power (or concentration), bank size, staff costs, administrative costs, extent of bank risk aversion and the rate of inflation. On the other hand, increases in the following variables decrease net interest margin significantly — bank excess cash reserves, the central bank lending rate, management efficiency and the passage of time. To help reduce interest rate margins, we recommend that banks should not get too big, the central bank should consider lowering the capital adequacy ratio and banks should be required to pass on to borrowers the full extent of reductions or increases in the central bank lending rate. Continued efforts at keeping inflation at bay will also help.     

Regional Interest Rate Premia in the American Railroad Bond Market from 1876 to 1890

A pattern of higher interest rates in the South and West of the postbellum United States has been well established in the literature. Kenneth Snowden has examined their effects on home and farm mortgages (1987a). Lance Davis has tracked similar patterns in bank-financed projects (1965). This work complements that of Snowden and Davis by establishing that similar interest rate premia existed in the railroad bond market—the most institutionally mature capital market of the era. Hence a broad range of investment opportunities of the era were subject to capital market imperfections. In this paper I examine the offering yields of long-term, railroad bonds issued from 1876 to 1890. I use a risk-neutral model of a bond's value that incorporates both the likelihood and severity of default to solve for the interest rate premia paid by the South and West—0.97 and 1.02%, respectively.     

Financial Factors,Openness and the Natural Interest Rate in China

China's financial market has undergone significant changes since financial deleveraging commenced and regulatory supervision was tightened in 2017. Intensifying China–US trade tensions have further increased the uncertainties of external environments. In this article, we use a Bayesian approach instead of the standard maximum likelihood estimation in the Laubach–Williams model to estimate the natural interest rate by considering financial factors and open conditions, and analyze the relationships among the natural interest rate, economic activities and monetary policies. We find that technological and demographic factors are the main drivers of natural interest rates, while financial factors and open conditions also play important roles. In particular, shocks in the financial markets and the external economic environment in recent years are important reasons for the decline of China's natural interest rate. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen research on the estimation of the natural interest rate to ensure China's transformation into more price‐based monetary policy and high‐quality development.     

An Analysis of the Structure of Interest Rates in Taiwan: An Application of the Vector ARIMA Model

The structure of interest rates in Taiwan is analysed through the vector ARIMA approach using monthly and quarterly data from 1978 to 1989. These rates are the regulated bank interest rate and unregulated money market interest rates in the formal financial market and the kerb rate in the informal market. The results show that the adjustments in the bank interest rate follow that of the money market interest rate. Furthermore, the time lag has been shortened from one quarter in the early stages of interest rate liberalization in Taiwan to only one month in the later stages. Increases in the money market interest rate might be followed by an increase in the kerb market interest rate because of partial market segmentation. In periods when there is excess supply of funds in the banking sector, an increase in the bank rate might be followed by a decrease of the kerb rate. The interest rates structure of Taiwan is relevant to developing countries which have an informal financial sector.     

利率管制、LPR与完全市场化下的货币政策传导机制:理论对比与实证检验

2019年8月,中国人民银行正式启用修订后的贷款基础利率（LPR）,标志着中国利率市场化改革步入收官阶段。这使得有关利率市场化能否保障货币政策有效性并从根本上改善货币政策传导效率的探讨再度成为焦点。鉴于此,文章构建了DSGE模型和TVP-VAR模型,详细对比了不同市场化程度下利率政策的有效性和传导效率,主要得出以下三点结论：第一,随着市场化程度的不断加深,产出、通胀与企业价值对利率调控的反应愈加敏感,表明利率市场化改革能够优化利率的宏微观传导效率;第二,模拟分析显示,完全市场化将会大幅降低利率政策的宏观传导效率,同时还可能诱发逆向选择并导致微观传导渠道失灵,因此货币当局仍应对利率完全市场化持必要谨慎;最后,实证检验结果表明,LPR的推出进一步提高了利率传导效率,这说明在完全市场化的初级阶段,采取LPR等过渡元素逐渐加强市场定价主导地位不失为双轨合一过程中的有益尝试。     

Real Interest Rate and Labor Market Performance around the World

This article studies the effects of the real interest rate on labor market performance. Using a much larger sample of countries and more indicators of labor market performance than have been used in previous articles, it finds that a rise in the real interest rate increases the unemployment rate, raises the share of long‐term unemployed, and reduces the employment rate. The magnitude of these effects is very small in the short run but much more pronounced—though still fairly small—in the long run. Young people are disproportionately affected. The results are robust to variations in specification.     

货币市场利率的跳跃行为及影响因素实证分析

中国货币市场短期利率存在明显跳跃行为，本文采用Gaussian-jump-GARCH和Vasicek修正形式等跳跃扩散模型，对银行间市场和交易所市场的7天期利率进行实证检验，并采用边界蒙特卡罗模拟方法显著拒绝了非跳跃模型。结论说明新股申购能够显著的解释利率的跳跃行为：新股申购日之前的三天内，利率跳跃概率已经显著提高，并产生向上跳跃；中购日之后，利率又发生显著的向下跳跃，申购日之后第一天的向下跳跃最为显著。通过新股中购微观效应和股市宏观经济效应等渠道，股票市场影响货币市场利率的跳跃行为。     

中国市场短期利率动态研究-基于有效矩方法的实证分析

本文以上海证券交易所国债回购市场的7天期回购利率为分析对象,选择从2000年1月4日到2005年12月13日的每日数据为样本,采用有效矩估计对三个在国外文献中流行的利率模型:CKLS模型、SV2模型、SV3模型进行实证分析.结果表明单因子CKLS模型不能很好的刻画我国短期利率的动态特征,SV2模型和SV3模型则可以较好的描述短期利率的动态变化过程.同时,受制于利率市场化问题,我国短期利率的水平效应较之于美国弱很多.