Innis Lecture: Universal early childhood interventions: what is the evidence base?

Abstract Universality is a hallmark of Canadian social policy for very young children. The evidence base for these policies is small, non‐experimental, and offers mixed results. In contrast, the evidence base for targeted early childhood interventions is largely experimental and offers strong guidance. Policy makers and advocates often cite the research on targeted programs in support of universal programs, although this is problematic for a number of reasons. Universal programs require a better understanding of the developmental trajectories of more advantaged children. Evidence from the NLSCY suggests there are some potentially important differences in the association of early and later childhood developmental outcomes by family economic resources.     

Son Preference,Number of Children,Education and Occupational Choice in Rural Nepal

A unique family survey was conducted in Nepal to investigate the economic consequences of having a first‐born girl. Women have more children, but we find no causal effect of number of children on economic outcomes, but independently of the number of children there is a positive effect on boys’ education of having a first‐born sister, who presumably takes care of household work so the boys can focus on school. This indicates a stronger son preference in Nepal than that found in studies from neighboring countries.     

The Determinants of School Participation Rates: A Cross-Sectional Analysis for New South Wales and Victoria*

Using data from the 1976 Australian Census of Population and Housing, estimates of the influence of family income. labour market conditions, religious denomination, foreign origin, locality and teenage income on the school participation rate of various teenage groups are obtained. These results suggest that family income is the most important determinant of school participation. The effect of the level of unemployment upon school participation is only modest. In some instances the direction of its influence is contrary to conventional wisdom .     

Does Maternal Age Affect Children's Test Scores?

We estimate the relationship between maternal age and child outcomes, using indices aimed at measuring overall outcomes, learning outcomes and social outcomes. In all cases, we find evidence that children of older mothers have better outcomes. Not only do children born to mothers in their twenties do better than children born to teen mothers, but children born to mothers in their thirties do better than children born to mothers in their twenties. However, when we control for other socioeconomic characteristics, such as family income, parental education and single parenthood, the coefficients on maternal age become small and statistically insignificant. The only exception is an index of social outcomes, which is positively associated with maternal age, even controlling for socioeconomic factors. For cognitive outcomes, young motherhood appears to be a marker, not a cause, of poor child outcomes.     

College Choice and Subsequent Earnings: Results Using Swedish Sibling Data*

Using data on 19,000 whole siblings, it is shown that earnings vary significantly among students who have graduated from different colleges. The cross‐section estimates are up to twice the within‐family estimates, indicating that a regression estimator of college effects that does not adjust properly for family characteristics will overestimate the earnings premium of college. This study also shows that the effects of college choice vary between sisters and brothers and that there is a relationship between teacher quality and the college effects. These findings suggest that there is no straightforward interpretation of college in individual earnings equations.     

Fatal fluctuations? Cyclicality in infant mortality in India

This paper investigates the impact of aggregate income shocks on infant mortality in India and investigates likely mechanisms. A recent OECD-dominated literature reports the provocative finding that mortality at most ages is pro-cyclical. Similar analyses for poorer countries are scarce, and both income risk and mortality risk are greater in poor countries. This paper uses data and methods designed to avoid some of the specification problems in previous studies and it explores mechanisms and extensions that have not been previously considered. It uses individual data on infant mortality for about 150,000 children born in 1970-1997, merged by cohort and state of birth with a state panel containing information on aggregate income. Identification rests upon comparing the effects of annual deviations in income from trend on the mortality risks of children born at different times to the same mother, conditional upon a number of state-time varying covariates including rainshocks and state social expenditure. Rural infant mortality is counter-cyclical, the elasticity being about − 0.33. This is despite the finding that relatively high-risk women avert birth or suffer fetal loss in recessions. It seems in part related to recessions stimulating distress labor amongst mothers, in contrast to the case in richer countries, where they discourage labor market participation. Health-care seeking declines in recessions, and this appears to be related to the opportunity cost of maternal time. Disaggregation reveals that the average results are driven by rural households in which the mother is uneducated or had her first birth in teenage, and that it is only girls that are at risk; boys are protected from income shocks. Exposure to poor conditions in the fetal and neonatal period appears to have a larger effect on infant mortality than similar exposure in the postneonatal period.     

Something in the water: contaminated drinking water and infant health

This paper provides estimates of the effects of in utero exposure to contaminated drinking water on fetal health. To do this, we examine the universe of birth records and drinking water testing results for the state of New Jersey from 1997 to 2007. Our data enable us to compare outcomes across siblings who were potentially exposed to differing levels of harmful contaminants from drinking water while in utero. We find small effects of drinking water contamination on all children, but large and statistically significant effects on birth weight and gestation of infants born to less educated mothers. We also show that those mothers who were most affected by contamination were the least likely to move between births in response to contamination.     

Childhood obesity and the income gradient: evidence from Australia

This article examines the dynamic nature of human capital formation in the context of childhood obesity and the association of household income and childhood obesity in Australia using the first five waves of the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children. Our results show a strong evidence of dynamic nature of child obesity: the lag obesity is a significant and robust predictor of obesity in the current period. We also found that the main channel for childhood obesity is inter-generational trait: the probability of obesity in children born to an obese mother or father is 15% higher than that of other children. Other important determinants are lifestyle factors, including the consumption of drinks with a high sugar content and the amount of time watching TV. Income becomes an insignificant determinant of childhood obesity once we control for unobserved individual heterogeneity.     

Indian residential schools: Height and body mass post‐1930

We study the effects of Canadian Indian residential schooling on two anthropometric measures of health during childhood: adult height and body weight. We use repeated cross‐sectional data from the 1991 and 2001 Aboriginal Peoples Survey and leverage detailed historical data on school closures and location to make causal inferences. We find evidence that, on average, residential schooling increases adult height and the likelihood of a healthy adult body weight for those who attended. These effects are concentrated after the 1950s, when the schools were subject to tighter health regulations and students were selected to attend residential school based partly on their need for medical care that was otherwise unavailable. Residential schooling is only one policy in Canada that had an impact on the health of status First Nations peoples, so our results must be understood in the broader social context. Taken in context, our results suggest that health interventions in later childhood can have significant impacts on adult health. We also document significant increases in height and body weight for status peoples born after the 1960s, suggesting substantial changes in diet and living conditions during this period.     

Canadian contributions to family economics

Canadian scholars have made substantial contributions to the relatively new field of family economics. These include new models of how men and women match in marriage markets, and of how decisions are made in multi‐person households. Several were early contributors to the literature on married women's labour supply and labour supply in a family context, and helped to develop empirical methods in this area. A particular focus has been on the impacts of policy‐relevant parameters, such childcare costs, on family labour supply and child well‐being. New work on child development, the impact of early life conditions, and the processes of intergenerational transmission also highlight the importance of family context in determining economic well‐being.     

The Effects of Incidence of Care Needs in Households on Employment,Subjective Health,and Life Satisfaction among Middle‐aged Family Members

In this study, based on longitudinal data, we investigate whether Japanese middle‐aged men and women become less likely to have a job and whether their sense of well‐being decreases when they have a family member who needs care. We find a consistent negative impact of having a family member who needs care on employment, but no impact on subjective health and life satisfaction. Further, the differences‐in‐differences (DID) estimation, based on both unmatched and matched data, shows that the Long‐Term Care Insurance (LTCI) introduced in 2000 did not mitigate the adverse impact on the probability of being employed.     

Intergenerational Educational Mobility in Hong Kong: Are Immigrants More Mobile than Natives?

We characterize intergenerational educational mobility by the percentage of children who have more schooling than their parents, and the change in the relative probability of the children attending university across their parents’ schooling levels. In Hong Kong, immigrant children are very upward mobile; their percentage of upward mobility has caught up with that of the children of the Hong Kong‐born parents. Hong Kong‐born children of immigrant parents are also more mobile than the children of Hong Kong born parents. Even though parental educational background remains important for university attendance, immigrant children experience higher mobility than Hong Kong‐born children in terms of access to university education.     

Parental preference for investment risk incites family strife

Older stronger siblings in many birds and mammals enjoy decisive and often lethal advantages in sibling competitions by virtue of being born or hatching first. Asynchronous hatching in birds divides the brood into core (advantaged) and marginal (disadvantaged) elements generating an asymmetric sibling rivalry with often fatal outcomes. Given that these asymmetries are under parental control, the obvious question is why parents seem to incite family conflict. Here I show in a model system (an altricial songbird) that family strife in the form of fatal sibling rivalry arises as a consequence of parental investor??s appetite for risk: in accord with an axiom of investment theory, obtaining greater potential rewards required taking greater risks. I analyze the risk and reward of investment in different family structures using a tool borrowed from modern portfolio theory, and show that the most successful parents gambled with brood size, placing bets on incipient families that often proved too large. Failed bets triggered a fatal sibling rivalry for insufficient resources. Parents driven to maximize reproductive success incited family strife among their offspring.     

Reinterpreting the performance of immigrant wages from panel data

Immigrants differ from the native born in terms of unobserved factors, such as motivation, and observed factors, including those related to the interruption of labour market activity and earning capacity, which may bias estimates of immigrant integration. Using panel data from the Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics, we show that using potential experience, rather than actual experience, exaggerates estimates of the disruption and recovery caused by immigration. More importantly, we find support for omitted variables bias, arising from unobserved fixed effects. Instrumental variable estimates for both pooled and separate samples of immigrant and native born men demonstrate a wage disadvantage for immigrants upon entry that persists through their lifetime. Standard estimates of a modest wage advantage for the children of immigrants also suffer from omitted variables bias arising from unobservables. Contrary to most of the literature to date, our instrumental variable estimates which allow for unobservable fixed effects suggest that immigrants never catch up to otherwise comparable native born workers, but their children do just as well. We would like to thank Statistics Canada for permitting access to the data and solving associated technical problems, the Prairier Centre for Research on Immigration and Integration for financial assistance, and Peter Schnabl for excellent research assistance. An earlier version of this paper was presented to the 10th International Conference on Panel Data in Berlin, July 5–6, 2002. The authors take sole responsibility for errors, omissions and interpretation of the data.     

Measuring Search Frictions Using Japanese Microdata

This paper estimates individual‐level matching functions to measure search frictions in the Japanese labour market and presents the determinants of search duration. We employ administrative microdata that track the job search process of job seekers who left or lost their job in August 2005 and subsequently registered at their local public employment service. Our finding is that the matching function exhibits decreasing rather than constant returns‐to‐scale for job seekers and vacancies. We also find that after controlling for the benefits period, job seekers who lost their job involuntarily were more likely than those quitting voluntarily to exit from unemployment.     

Adolescent premarital childbearing: do economic incentives matter?

This paper develops and tests a three-stage nested logistic model of teenage childbearing that is influenced by economic incentives and costs created by US public policy. The modeling of teenage childbearing involves becoming pregnant, the choice to have an abortion or to bear the child, and the choice to bear the child premaritally or maritally. Data were obtained from a sample of 1718 Black and White women aged 14-16 years in 1979 from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. In 1990, the birth rate among unmarried youth was 29.5/1000 unmarried White women vs. 110.1/1000 unmarried Black women. In the sample, the pregnancy rate was 24% among White teenagers and 48% among Black teenagers. Miscarriages or stillbirths occurred among 11% of Whites and 12% of Blacks. Abortions were performed for 37% of Whites and 12% of Blacks. An incentive variable is the welfare guarantee. Cost variables include the cost of obtaining an abortion and the cost of obtaining contraceptive services and supplies. Access to family planning services is also accounted for in the model. Findings indicate that welfare, abortion, and family planning policy variables have a racially specific impact. For White teenagers, these variables have significant effects on pregnancy outcomes. For Black teenagers, the insignificance may reflect differences in sample size or important unmeasured racial differences in factors that influence fertility and marital behavior. The authors suggest that the rational choice perspective does not adequately explain premarital childbearing. It is also suggested that the specification of the variables on abortion, family planning, and adolescent sexual behavior may be fundamentally different and reflect differences in state attitudes and social customs. Only if the policy variables really change the costs of different pregnancy outcomes will changes in social policy change individual adolescent behavior. The authors state that focusing on only economic incentives did not rule out other influences on premarital childbearing.     

LONG‐TERM CARE AND FAMILY BARGAINING*

We present a structural model of how families decide who should care for elderly parents. We use data from the National Long‐Term Care Survey to estimate and test the parameters of the model. Then we use the parameter estimates to simulate the effects of the existing long‐term trends in terms of the common but untested explanations for them. Finally, we simulate the effects of alternative family bargaining rules on individual utility to measure the sensitivity of our results to the family decision‐making assumptions we make.     

‘Beautiful Serbia’ ‐ objective and subjective outcomes of active labour market policy in a transition economy

This paper studies the causal impact of participation in the Beautiful Serbia programme providing training and temporary work in the construction sector in Serbia on labour market outcomes as well as on measures of subjective well‐being approximating individual welfare. According to our estimates, the positive impact of this particular programme appears much stronger when judged by subjective well‐being than when judged by the immediate labour market effect.