美联储加息的外溢效应与中国对策——基于DSGE模型的分析

构建一个含名义与实际刚性、带金融加速器的开放经济模型,研究美联储加息对中国经济的外溢效应及中国的应对之策。通过贝叶斯估计与数值模拟发现：美联储加息后国内利率将呈“驼峰”状上升,汇率即期大幅贬值,远期小幅升值。汇率贬值使进口需求锐减,出口需求骤增,国内通胀高企。实际利率上升使居民消费产生跨期替代,国内消费持续低迷;企业外部融资成本上升,由于金融加速器效应,国内投资锐减。因此,美联储加息使国内总需求降低,出口需求增加,净产出增加,同时出现一定程度的通货膨胀。进一步的福利绩效分析表明,若货币当局实行单一最优货币规则可有效提高社会福利。基于此,提出货币政策调控与汇率制度改革的相关政策建议。     

Understanding the adoption of new brands through salespeople: a multilevel framework

So far there has been scant empirical attention paid to the role of the sales force in the adoption of new brands in the early implementation stages. We test a framework of internal (sales manager and salespeople) brand adoption using an empirical multilevel study. Our findings suggest that the construct of expected customer demand (ECD) plays an important role in sales force brand adoption. First, ECD directly influences salespeople’s and sales managers’ brand adoption. Second, ECD serves as a cross-level moderator of new brand adoption transmission. We find the influence of sales managers’ brand adoption on salespeople’s brand adoption to be stronger when salespeople’s ECD is lower.     

The perception of kosher as a third party certification claim in advertising for familiar and unfamiliar brands

This study was undertaken to investigate the inclusion of a kosher claim in an advertisement for a familiar and unfamiliar brand of breakfast cereal. Results showed that, as hypothesized, for the familiar brand a kosher third party endorsement led to significantly more kosher attribute-related thoughts, more favorable product attitude and greater purchase intention. For the unfamiliar brand, no significant impact upon these dependent measures was observed given a kosher endorsement. Findings are interpreted from a cognitive perspective regarding the salience of the kosher attribute in a product familiarity context. Managerial implications are discussed.     

The effects of exposure-order and market entry-information on brand preference: a dual process model

A dual process model is proposed that identifies the conditions under which two separate and additive effects on brand preference may obtain. The first is an exposure-order effect that can influence attribute-based processing. The second is the effect of market entry-information that can result in theory-driven processing. The model was tested and supported across two experiments, which demonstrate that the effects of market entry-information and exposure-order on brand preference depend on attribute-type and the time between attribute encoding and preference construction. In contrast to previous research, conditions are identified where market entry-information has no effect on preference and where the second-encountered brand is preferred to the first.     

Prototypicality advantages for pioneers over me-too brands: the role of evolving product designs

Prior empirical research suggests that consumers perceive pioneers as more prototypical (i.e., representative) of their product categories than me-too followers. This prototypicality advantage is believed to contribute to an enduring marketplace advantage for the pioneer. We extend research into pioneering prototypicality advantages by considering the ramifications of simultaneous product design (i.e., product attribute) evolutions. We hypothesize that the simultaneous evolution of product designs of both the pioneer and me-too will diminish the pioneer’s prototypicality advantage over the me-too, even though the me-too does not initiate the change. To test our hypotheses, we create an experimental environment consisting of four cells, each corresponding to a different marketplace scenario: a no-change condition; a simultaneous-evolution condition; a pioneer-updates-first condition; and a leapfrogging (i.e., me-too updates first) condition. The results suggest that simultaneous design evolutions can diminish the pioneer’s prototypicality advantage. As a result, me-too entry may be a more attractive strategy in the long-run than currently believed in product categories characterized by substantial design evolution.

The role of contingency awareness,involvement, and need for cognition in attitude formation

This research investigates the role of involvement and need for cognition in influencing contingency awareness in attitude formation. Two experiments examine the nature of favorable attitudes formulated through established classical conditioning procedures. The results of Experiment 1 indicate that awareness influences attitudes toward a conditioned stimulus, particularly under conditions of high involvement and high need for cognition. Experiment 2 suggests that contingency awareness mediates the relationship between inferential belief formation and attitudes and that this effect is stronger under high involvement and high need for cognition. Implications for understanding the role of classical conditioning procedures in advertising are discussed. Randi Priluck (Rpriluck@pace.edu) is an associate professor of marketing at Pace University in New York. She received her Ph.D. from Drexel University in 1995. Her research areas of interest include classical conditioning and its advertising implications, cobranding strategies, and relationship marketing. She has written articles for theJournal of Advertising, theJournal of Current Issues and Research in Advertising, theJournal of Product & Brand Management, Psychology & Marketing, theJournal of Consumer Marketing, theJournal of Marketing Management, theJournal of Marketing Practice: Applied Marketing Science, theInternational Journal of Consumer Marketing, theInternational Journal of Retail & Distribution Management, theJournal of Marketing Education, and theJournal of Services Marketing. Brian D. Till (Tillbd@slu.edu) is an associate professor and chair of marketing at Saint Louis University. He received his Ph.D. from the University of South Carolina in 1993. His research areas of interest include classical conditioning, cobranding strategies, and the use of celebrity endorsers in advertising. He has published in theJournal of Marketing Research, theJournal of Advertising, theJournal of Current Issues and Research in Advertising, Psychology & Marketing, theJournal of Product and Brand Management, and theJournal of Consumer Marketing.     

Sibling brands, multiple objectives, and response to entry: The case of the marion retail coffee market

A new brand entering a market often finds itself in competition with sibling brands (those owned by the same parent company). In a case study of a retail coffee market, the authors examine how these brand relationships might influence the sibling and competitor brands' responses to entry. Using an empirically validated brand-share attraction model, the authors compare the actual responses to entry with the optimal responses under different incumbent objectives. The authors find that the responses by sibling brand are more accommodating than those of unrelated brands whose responses are consistent with the preservation of preentry levels of sales. Thomas S. Gruca (Ph.D., University of Illinois) is a Lloyd J. and Thelma W. Palmer Research Fellow and an associate professor of marketing in the Tippie College of Business at the University of Iowa. His research on defensive marketing strategy has appeared in the International Journal of Research in Marketing, the Journal of Marketing, the Journal of Marketing Research, Marketing Management, and Marketing Science. His research on health care has appeared in Contemporary Accounting Research, Health Care Management Science, and Strategic Management Journal. He is currently working on electronic prediction markets and modeling hospital network formation. He is a member of the editorial board of Marketing Letters and a reviewer for a number of management science journals. D. Sudharshan (Ph.D., University of Pittsburgh) is a professor of business administration in the College of Commerce and Business Administration at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. His research interests lie in the areas of marketing strategy, new product and service development, and marketing technology management. He serves on the editorial boards of the Journal of Marketing and the Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science. His articles have appeared in various journals including Marketing Science, Management Science, the Journal of Marketing, the Journal of Marketing Research, the Strategic Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational Research, the Journal of Service Research, and the Journal of Market Focused Management. K. Ravi Kumar (Ph.D., Northwestern University) is a professor in the Department of Information and Operations Management, Marshall School of Business, at the University of Southern California. His current research interests include the embedding of information systems within global physical operation and the development of sustainable information technology industries in developing countries. He is the author or coauthor of articles appearing in Management Science, Marketing Science, the Journal of Economic Theory, Production and Operations Management, and the Journal of Operations Management. He serves on the advisory boards of Production and Operations Management and Technology and Operations Review.     

Including the effects of prior and recent contact effort in a customer scoring model for database marketing

Database marketers often use a scoring model to predict the likely value of contacting customers based on their purchase histories and demographics. However, when purchase history has been a partial result of the firm’s own contacting efforts, these contacts should also be accounted for in the scoring model. The current work extends the existing literature to account for the firm’s contacts by focusing on each customer’s most recent purchase. Contacts prior to that purchase are designated “prior contacts” and those after that purchase “recent contacts.” A new latent variables formulation of the customer’s propensity to respond is used to predict the likelihood and time of response as well as the relationship to the independent variables. The methodology also addresses the statistical problems of “selection bias” and “endogeneity,” which have been largely ignored in most customer scoring models. An application to the database of a charitable organization confirms that, in this case: (1) the effect of the firm’s customer contact efforts is associated with a stronger propensity to respond than is the case for the included demographics; (2) the firm’s “recent contact” efforts are associated with larger returns in customers’ propensity to respond than the “prior contact” efforts; and (3) the “recent contact” efforts are associated with an at-first increasing but then diminishing propensity to respond up to a point beyond which actual decreasing returns are observed with further contacts. Clearly, too much contacting can alienate would-be donors. The proposed model is general enough to calibrate such impacts in other database marketing applications where the relative effects might be different.

Human brands and mutual choices: an investigation of the marketing assistant professor job market

We present a two-sided matching framework to investigate the entry-level marketing assistant professor job market. Under this framework, candidates’ and departments’ decisions to mutually choose one another are driven by the matching value produced by the pair, which is in turn determined by observable department brand cues and candidates’ human brand cues such as field of research, research productivity, and ranking status. Our results suggest that matches between candidates and faculty trained in the same field do not always generate the highest matching value. Candidates’ publications in top marketing journals enhance their likelihood of matching with research-oriented hiring departments, and this effect is moderated by their field of research. In general, the ranking status of candidates boosts their chance of being matched with research-oriented hiring departments. However, this effect differs across fields, and it also interacts with candidates’ own research productivity. In particular, publications by candidates from top-ranked degree-granting departments are taken as three to four times more valuable by research-oriented hiring departments. Our work extends the current research on the marketing job market and, most importantly, quantifies and compares the significance of various human brand cues in influencing mutual choices in the job market.     

Experimentation in the 21st century: The importance of external validity

Much of the consumer behavior literature is devored to what has been referred to as theory applications (TA) research in which the main focus is on laboratory experiments with student subjects and high internal validity. In this articlee, the author argues that external validity concerns should be given more attention, particulary in TA research. Three recommendations are made for implementing these concerns: (1) consumer behavior articles should be required to have a section indicating how increased levels of external validity can be obtained with other studies, (2) “joint ventures” between consumer behavior and marketing science researchers can be profitable and should be encouraged, and (3) analyses of electronic scanner panel data or other secondary data can be used to generate higher levels of external validity. Three examples are given from the marketing literature of how findings from experiments and scanner data can be combined to advance a stream of research. Russel SS. Winer is the J. Gary Shansby Professor of Marketing Strategy, the associate dean for academic affairs, and the chair of the marketing group at the Haas School of Business, University of California at Berkeley. He received a B.A. in economics from Union College (New York) and an M.S. and Ph.D. in industrial administration from Carnegie-Mellon University. He has been on the faculties of Columbia and Vanderbilt universities and has been a visiting faculty member at M.I.T., the Helsinki School of Economics, the University of Tokyo, and ócole Nationale des Ponts et Chauséee. He has written three books,Marketing Management, Analysis for Marketing Planning, and Product Management, and has authored more than 50 papers in marketing on a variety of topics, including consumer choice, marketing research methodology, marketing planning, advertising, and pricing. He is the editor of theJournal of Marketing Research and is on the editorial boards of theJournal of Marketing, Journal of Consumer Research, and theJournal of Interactive Marketing. He is the academic director of the Fisher Center for the Strategic Use of Information Technology. He has participated in executive educattion programs around the world and is an academic trustee of the Marketing Science Institute.     

Linking multiple layers of innovation-oriented corporate culture, product program innovativeness, and business performance: a contingency approach

In recent years, firms have invested considerably in programs to raise their innovativeness by inspiring employees with an innovation-oriented corporate culture. However, extant literature is inconclusive on how an innovation-oriented culture leads to increases in product program innovativeness (PPI). This study investigates this question by analyzing a multilayer model of innovation-oriented corporate culture, using data from three different informants: marketing managers, R&D managers, and customers. The effects of innovation-oriented values and norms on PPI are fully mediated by cultural artifacts. Therefore, values and norms must be transformed into specific artifacts to exert an influence on innovativeness. Furthermore, market dynamism and technological turbulence have opposite moderating effects on the relationship between innovation-oriented artifacts and PPI. Market dynamism weakens this relationship, whereas technological turbulence strengthens it.     

Market valuation models of the effect of advertising and promotional spending: A review and meta-analysis

A narrative review is presented, within the organizing framework of a meta-analysis, of econometric models reported in the business literature that estimate the effect of advertising and promotional spending on the market value of the firm. Results from published market valuation models are aggregated, and various model specifications are appraised. In brief the meta-analysis finds support for a positive relationship between levels of advertising and promotional spending and the market value of the firm. That is, marketing activities (represented here by observed advertising and promotions spending) are generally expected to deliver future cashflows and produce increases in shareholder wealth. The review seeks to enhance understanding among the community of marketing scholars of the properties of market valuation models published in the literature and serves as a springboard for ongoing investigation of a crucial question for marketing theory and practice. Margy P. Conchar (concharm@mail.ecu.edu) (Ph.D., University of Georgia) is an assistant professor at East Carolina University. Her research focuses on consumer behavior and advertising. Her work in consumer behavior concentrates on risk, motives, and optimal consumption experience. Her research in advertising focuses on the interface between advertising and finance, accounting, or economics. She has previously published in the proceedings of the Academy of Marketing Science, the Association for Consumer Research, the American Marketing Association of Educators, and the Society for Marketing Advances. Melvin R. Crask (mcrask@terry.uga.edu) (DBA, University of Indiana) is an associate professor of marketing at the University of Georgia (UGA). He is currently serving as director of the MBA program at UGA. His teaching interests are in the areas of marketing research and marketing strategy. He has published more than three dozen articles and papers dealing with marketing research methods and with strategic issues in marketing. He is also the coauthor of two books, one on marketing strategy and one on marketing research. George M. Zinkhan (gzinkhan@terry.uga.edu) (Ph.D., University of Michigan) is the Coca-Cola Company Chair of Marketing at the University of Georgia. His major research interests include advertising, communication, and e-commerce.     

Innovating for sustainability: a framework for sustainable innovations and a model of sustainable innovations orientation

In an environment characterized by growing awareness of environmental sustainability among various stakeholders in organizations, innovating for sustainability can be expected to grow in importance from the standpoints of organizational legitimacy, reputation, and performance. Relatedly, a firm’s sustainable innovations capabilities as a source of competitive advantage and the sustainability related attributes of a firm’s product offerings as bases for market segmentation, target marketing, positioning, and differentiation can also be expected to grow in importance. The emergence of sustainability as a major driver of innovation highlights a number of important issues that merit investigation, such as potential avenues for sustainable innovation and sustainable product innovation and factors underlying differences between firms in their commitment to a sustainable innovations orientation. In an attempt to gain insights into these issues, this paper presents (1) a conceptual framework delineating potential avenues for sustainable innovations and (2) a conceptual model delineating a number of firm-related and industry-related antecedents of sustainable innovations orientation, along with performance outcomes of sustainable innovations orientation. Implications for theory, research, and practice are discussed.     

Exciting red and competent blue: the importance of color in marketing

From beverages to consumer electronics, marketers are using color in innovative ways. Despite this, little academic research has investigated the role that color plays in marketing. This paper examines how color affects consumer perceptions through a series of four studies. The authors provide a framework and empirical evidence that draws on research in aesthetics, color psychology, and associative learning to map hues onto brand personality dimensions (Study 1), as well as examine the roles of saturation and value for amplifying brand personality traits (Study 2). The authors also demonstrate how marketers can strategically use color to alter brand personality and purchase intent (Study 3), and how color influences the likability and familiarity of a brand (Study 4). The results underscore the importance of recognizing the impact of color in forming consumer brand perceptions.     

The marketing of hamburger buns: An improved model for prediction

The Spring 1974 issue of this Journal published a paper that presented a model for predicting sales of hamburger buns. This article evaluates the model on the bases of statistical reporting, model specification, and implications for production policy. In addition, using the same data used for the original model, an improved model is developed whereby there is a 50% increase in explained variance.     

A comprehensive model of customer direct and indirect revenge: understanding the effects of perceived greed and customer power

This article develops and tests a comprehensive model of customer revenge that contributes to the literature in three manners. First, we identify the key role played by the customer’s perception of a firm’s greed—that is, an inferred negative motive about a firm’s opportunistic intent—that dangerously energizes customer revenge. Perceived greed is found as the most influential cognition that leads to a customer desire for revenge, even after accounting for well studied cognitions (i.e., fairness and blame) in the service literature. Second, we make a critical distinction between direct and indirect acts of revenge because these sets of behaviors have different repercussions—in “face-to-face” vs. “behind a firm’s back”—that call for different interventions. Third, our extended model specifies the role of customer perceived power in predicting these types of behaviors. We find that power is instrumental—both as main and moderation effects—only in the case of direct acts of revenge (i.e., aggression and vindictive complaining). Power does not influence indirect revenge, however. Our model is tested with two field studies: (1) a study examining online public complaining, and (2) a multi-stage study performed after a service failure.     

On the importance of complaint handling design: a multi-level analysis of the impact in specific complaint situations

Given the large investments required for high-quality complaint handling design, managers need practical guidance in understanding its actual importance for their particular company. However, while prior research emphasizes the general relevance of complaint handling design, it fails to provide a more differentiated perspective on this interesting issue. This study, which is based on an integrative multi-level framework and a dyadic dataset, addresses this important gap in research. Results indicate that the impact of a company’s complaint handling design varies significantly depending on the characteristics of the complaining customers with which the firm has to deal. Further, this paper shows that, contingent on these characteristics, a company’s complaint handling design can shape complainants’ fairness perceptions either considerably or only slightly. Overall, findings suggest that companies should apply an adaptive approach to complaint handling to avoid misallocation of attention, energy, and resources.     

The perceived importance of ethics and social responsibility on organizational effectiveness: A survey of marketers

A necessary but insufficient condition for marketers to act ethically and be socially responsible is that they must perceive ethics and social responsibility to be important. However, little is known about marketers’ perceptions regarding the importance of ethics and social responsibility components of business decisions. The objectives of this study are (1)to assess the marketing practitioners’ perceptions regarding the importance of ethics and social responsibility in achieving organizational effectiveness, and (2) to analyze the relative influences of selected personal characteristics and organizational factors underlying a marketer’s perceived importance of ethics and social responsibility. The results from a mail survey of American Marketing Association members indicate that the marketers generally believe that ethics and social responsibility are important components of organizational effectiveness. The results partly indicate that there is a positive relationship between a marketer’s corporate ethical values and his or her perceptions regarding the importance of ethics and social responsibility. The results also indicate that the marketers’ perceptions regarding ethics and social responsibility can be explained by idealism and relativism. He has also served on the marketing faculty at Thammasat University, Thailand. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Mississippi. His research focusing on marketing ethics and social responsibility has been published inJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Journal of Business Ethics, Journal of Macromarketing, Journal of Personal Selling & Sales Management, Journal of Public Policy & Marketing, and elsewhere. He received his D.B.A. in management from the University of Maryland. His work on business ethics, organizational design, and strategic planning has been published inAcademy of Management Review, American Business Review, andJournal of Business Ethics. His current research interest centers on the measurement of moral intensity. He received his Ph.D. from Texas Tech University. His work has appeared inJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Journal of Business Ethics, Journal of Business Research, Journal of Macromarketing, Journal of Personal Selling & Sales Management, Research in Marketing, and elsewhere. He received his Ph.D. in marketing from the University of Mississippi. His research has been published inJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Journal of Business Ethics, Journal of Pharmaceutical Marketing and Management, Journal of Social and Administrative Pharmacy, and elsewhere. His research interests include marketing ethics, health care marketing, international marketing, and direct marketing.     

Selling strategies: The effects of suggesting a decision structure to novice and expert buyers

This research investigates the impact of selling strategies on selling effectiveness. The authors compare two selling strategies: (1) an agenda strategy, in which a salesperson attempts to influence the structure of the buyer’s decision by suggesting constraints that eliminate competitive products from consideration, and (2) a more typical selling strategy that summarizes the target product’s benefits. The results show that when sellers use an agenda selling strategy, target products receive higher evaluations and have higher probabilities of being considered and chosen. Buyer expertise moderates this effect, with the agenda strategy in most cases having more impact on novice buyers than on expert buyers. These findings demonstrate the importance of selling strategy to selling effectiveness, suggest the potential benefit for sellers of using selling strategies that attempt to influence the structure of the buyer’s decision, and provide support for the contingent nature of selling effectiveness. Judy A. Wagner (Ph.D., Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University) is currently an assistant professor of marketing at the University of Texas at Arlington. Her primary research interests are personal selling strategies, sales management, and buyer decision making. Her research has been published inAdvances in Consumer Research and the proceedings of the American Marketing Association and is forthcoming in theJournal of Business Research. Noreen M. Klein (Ph.D., Pennsylvania State University) is currently an associate professor of marketing at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. Her research interests include consumer decision making and the behavioral aspects of pricing, and her research has been published in theJournal of Consumer Research andOrganizational Behavior and Human Decision Making. Janet E. Keith (Ph.D., Arizona State University) is currently an associate professor of marketing at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. Her research interests lie in behavioral issues in channels of distribution and in sales and sales management. Her studies have been published in journals such as theJournal of Marketing Research, Journal of Marketing, Journal of Business Research, andJournal of Marketing Channels.     

An attitudinal model of technology-based self-service: Moderating effects of consumer traits and situational factors

The accelerating growth in technology-based self-service today is giving rise to questions about the acceptance of such forms of service delivery by all kinds of consumers and under different situational contexts. This study investigates the moderating effects of consumer traits and situational factors on the relationships within a core attitudinal model for technology-based self-service. An experimental design is used with perceived waiting time and social anxiety (through perceived crowding) as the situational treatments. Relevant consumer traits for technology-based self-service are examined and include inherent novelty seeking, self-efficacy with respect to technology self-consciousness, and the need for interaction with an employee. The results lend support to the hypothesized moderating effects. Implications for service practitioners as well as directions for future research are discussed. Pratibha A. Dabholkar (Ph.D., Georgia State University) is an associate professor of marketing at the University of Tennessee. Her research interests include technology in service delivery; attitude, choice, and means-end models; service quality and customer satisfaction; and business-to-business relationships. Her work has been published in theJournal of Consumer Research; Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science; Journal of Retailing; International Journal of Research in Marketing; International Journal of Service Industry Management; Psychology and Marketing; Journal of Business Research; Journal of Consumer Satisfaction, Dissatisfaction, and Complaining Behavior, andJournal of Business and Industrial Marketing. Richard P. Bagozzi (Ph.D., Northwestern University) is the J. Hugh Liedtke Professor of Management and professor of psychology at Rice University. Prior to this, he was at the University of California at Berkeley, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Stanford University, and University of Michigan. His current research interests include the theory of action, emotion, self-regulation, means-end models, and technology adoption. His work has been published in theJournal of Consumer Research, Journal of Marketing, Journal of Marketing Research, Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, International Journal of Research in Marketing, Psychology and Marketing, Marketing Science, andJournal of Consumer Psychology.