Transmission of US financial and trade shocks to Asian economies: Implications for spillover of the 2007–2009 US financial crisis

This paper describes an investigation of the transmission of US shocks to Asian economies with consideration of financial linkages and trade linkages. Using the sign restriction vector autoregression (VAR) approach during 2000–2012, our empirical results can be summarized as follows. First, both US financial and trade linkages exert a significant impact on production in Asian economies. Second, through both financial and trade linkages, US spillover shocks account for around 50% of the production fluctuation in Asian economies. Third, during the episodes of 2007–2009 US financial crisis, the impact of financial shocks is greater than that of trade shocks. Results suggest that (i) Asian economies are not decoupled with US; and (ii) different from conventional findings, financial linkages between US and Asian economies are strong, especially for highly developed Asian economies. Therefore, investors and policymakers of Asian economies should take account of US financial conditions.     

Banks’ capital,regulation and the financial crisis

This paper investigates whether regulatory capital requirements play an important role in determining banks’ equity capital. We estimate equity capital regressions using panel data of a sample of 560 banks for 2004–2010. Our results suggest that regulatory capital requirements are not first order determinants of banks’ capital structure. We document differences on the effect of most factors on banks’ share of equity according to the type of bank and to the region of the bank. Finally, we show that the determinants of this share are sensitive to the recent international financial crisis and to a set of regulatory country factors.     

Does more finance mean more inequality in times of crisis?

Many recent empirical studies show that both banking crises and financial development (FD) play an important role in understanding the dynamics of income inequality (IncI) over the last decades. However, so far no study has investigated the role of FD in the amplification of IncI following banking crises. This paper seeks to address this issue based on a sample of 69 banking crises in 54 countries over the 1977–2013 period. Our analysis suggests that FD is associated with a significant increase in IncI in the aftermath of banking crises. This result is robust to a broad range of alternative specifications and is unaffected by various potential sources of endogeneity. We also show that the relationship between FD and the redistributive consequences of banking crises is not subject to a threshold effect and is stronger for developing countries.     

How does investors' heterogeneous trust affect the complexity of financial products? A look into the development of online finance

We introduce “trusting effects” to market complexity strategy and, through modeling, measure the decision‐making behavior of financial institutions' complexity choices as online and offline finance develops into different stages. We find that the complexity of financial products is not only determined by the intrinsic value and structure of products but also largely influenced by the behavior of investors. In addition, the characteristics of financial institutions, as well as different investor structures, also affect the complexity of the products and the equilibrium. Therefore, financial institutions attempt to exploit investors' biases and cognitive limitations through complexity strategies and ultimately obtain excess returns.     

Temporary open market operation on MBS repos: any foreshadowing of the financial crisis of 2008?

The financial crisis of 2008 was significantly influenced by housing, mortgage markets and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The Federal Reserve (Fed) conducts temporary open market operations on a daily basis and frequently uses repos on MBS. With this daily interaction with MBS, we examine whether any signal about the impending financial crisis could have been seen in the Fed’s temporary open market operations. We identify four anomalous events in MBS temporary open market operations and examine those events for signals of the financial crisis. We find nothing in the four events that would have provided signals of the financial crisis. Instead, the common feature of the four events is an unusually large supply of MBS made available to the Fed for those day’s temporary open market operations.     

Government support and bank performance during the 2007–2008 financial crisis

Though previous studies suggest a state participation has a negative impact on banks, this paper highlights the potential benefits of state ownership for confidence and stability in the post-crisis period that can outweigh the inefficiencies and potential for corruption of political intervention. We find that the state guarantees are valuable during the crisis. The negative (positive) relation between state ownership and bank profitability (risk) is mitigated in the post-crisis period. Financially troubled banks that receive a transfer payment or capital injection experience improved performance during the post-bailout period.     

Non-structural and structural models in productivity analysis: study of the British Isles during the 2007–2009 financial crisis

Journal of Productivity Analysis - The paper compares unrestricted and restricted reduced-form estimates of productivity and efficiency performance constructed from non-structural stochastic...     

The 2007–2009 financial crisis,global imbalances and capital flows: Implications for reform

The paper discusses the currents that led to the 2007–2009 financial crisis. We discuss the crisis in a historical context and present evidence regarding the incidence and unit price of risk. Our results show that the unit price of risk prior to the subprime crisis is comparable to the price of risk prior to the great depression and similar to the price of risk at onset of the technology bubble. We then discuss global imbalances, the associated risks with regard to international optimal allocation of capital, and arrangements to minimize problems of global imbalances.     

Trading income and bank charter value during the financial crisis: Does derivatives dealer designation matter?

Derivative markets have exploded over the last decade, remained active in the midst of the 2007–2009 financial crisis and continue to be dominated by a small group of bank holding companies (BHC). BHC motives for derivative usage are usually tied to hedging purposes (balance sheet risk management), trading purposes (profit motives) or some combination thereof. This paper examines the relationship between derivative trading income and bank charter value for 27 BHC between 2001Q1 and 2011Q3. We find that the impact of derivative trading income on bank charter value, using Tobin's Q, is very small and seems to be tied to BHCs derivatives dealer trading designation. We also find that trading incomes are a modest fraction of net operating revenue, highly volatile, and did not contribute to overall BHC income during the crisis.     

Slowdown of credit flows in Jordan in the wake of the global financial crisis: Supply or demand driven?

This paper estimates a disequilibrium model of credit supply and demand to evaluate the relative role of these factors in the slowdown of credit flows in the Jordanian economy in the wake of the global financial crisis. The empirical analysis suggests that the credit stagnation is mainly driven by the restricted credit supply amid tighter monetary policy conditions in Jordan relative to the United States, as evidenced by the widened interest differential between the Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) re-discount and the U.S. Federal Reserve funds rates. Although it appears that demand side factors related to the slowdown of economic activity have also had an impact, their role has been relatively modest. The estimation results imply that economic policies targeted towards stimulating the supply of credit are likely to be a more effective tool for expanding credit flows relative to demand stimulating policies.     

Risk spillover and network connectedness analysis of China’s green bond and financial markets: Evidence from financial events of 2015–2020

This study investigated the dynamic return and volatility spillovers, together with the network connectedness analysis between China’s green bond and main financial markets. Based on a multidimensional DCC-GJRGARCH model and the spillover index method, we found significant two-way risk spillovers between the green bond market and traditional bond markets. Moreover, the green bond market was subject to one-way risk spillover from the stock and commodities markets. Meanwhile, risk spillovers between the green bond market, forex market, and monetary market were not significant. Finally, network connectedness analysis provided specific information about connectivity and strength during different subperiods corresponding to financial events. The analysis indicated that under the influence of emergencies, China’s financial market will enhance the risk-spillover level by transforming the same type of market’s internal spillover into cross-market spillover.     

Supply chain finance and impacts of consumers’ sustainability awareness

Several new methods have been proposed for supply chain finance (SCF) with bank credits, but none of them mentions how to solve the borrowers’ moral hazard problems in SCF. This paper examines the moral hazard problem in supply chain financing with procurement contract (or purchase order). We show that since supply chain is an up-down directed structure, when financing with the procurement contract, the supplier’s effort monitoring task can be rendered to the procurement contract, which can secure the supplier’s optimal effort and capital choices in production. Hence, compared to separate lending, the supplier’s credit rationing problem can be mitigated, and most importantly, banks’ under-estimation on the supplier’s default risk and the over-estimation on the retailer’s default risk will both decrease. We further show that the retailer’s corporate social responsibility expenditure can increase consumers’ brand recognition, thus when facing demand shocks arising from consumer’s unexpected concerns, the retailer can better stabilize the firm value.     

Has recent financial crisis changed permanently the correlations between BRICS and developed stock markets?

The paper finds recent financial crisis has changed permanently the correlations between BRICS and developed U.S. and Europe stock markets. 70% of BRICS stock markets⿿ conditional correlation series demonstrate an upward long-run trend with the developed stock markets. Our results provide convincing evidence that the reducing diversification benefits are a long-run and world-wide phenomenon, especially after recent financial crisis.     

Does Size Matter? Evaluating Corporate Environmental Disclosure in the Australian Mining and Metal Industry: A Combined Approach of Quantity and Quality Measurement

There are an increasing number of companies in the mining and metals sector disclosing environmental sustainability information in their annual reports, sustainability reports and corporate internet web pages. However, there is ongoing debate about the relationship between the quantity and the quality of environmental disclosure. That is, does an increase in number equate to an increase in quality? This study investigates the relationship between the quantity and the quality of environmental disclosure reports. Using content analysis, we examine the environmental disclosure of 55 Australian mining and metal companies which are listed among the Australian Securities Exchange's (ASX) Top 100 mining and metal sector companies. We find that the size of firms influences both the quantity and the quality of corporate environmental disclosure. That is, we find that market capitalization is positively and significantly correlated to the quantity (number of words) and the quality of disclosure. We also confirm that there is a very highly significant, positive correlation between quantity (number of words) and quality of environmental disclosure. In order to investigate any differences between the top performing group and the bottom performing group in terms of environmental disclosure quality, further analysis also confirms that there is a positive relationship between the quantity and the quality of environmental disclosure. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

TFP change and its components for Swedish manufacturing firms during the 2008–2009 financial crisis

Journal of Productivity Analysis - A driving force of economic development is growth in total factor productivity (TFP). Manufactured goods are, to a large extent, exports, and represent an...     

Regional or global shock? A global VAR analysis of Asian economic and financial integration

This study employs a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model to empirically investigate the viability of regional monetary arrangements in Asia. In marked contrast to the previous studies, we analyzed whether recent regional economic and financial integration in Asia were driven by global (U.S.) shock or regional (Japanese and Chinese) shock, using the GVAR model that allows global inter-linkages between domestic and foreign variables. By estimating generalized impulse responses of Asian economies’ real outputs and interest rates to global and regional shocks, we found that the Chinese shock exerted more real and financial influences on Asian economies than the U.S. shock. Another regional shock, i.e., the Japanese shock, had a far smaller influence on Asian economies. The relative importance of regional shocks originating from China needs to be considered when establishing regional monetary arrangements in Asia.     

Why do some economies benefit more from climate finance than others? A case study on North-to-South financial flows

The Copenhagen and Paris Agreements, in which developed countries committed to mobilise USD 100 billion a year by 2020, indicate that climate finance will continue to grow. Even though economic development is not the aim of climate finance, climate-related disbursements will generate an economic impact on recipient countries’ economies. This impact will also reach other countries (including climate finance donors) through induced international trade. In this paper, we apply a structural decomposition analysis to study why the economic impact of climate finance varies between countries. We focus on specific climate actions and quantify the contribution of four drivers: value-added intensity, domestic multiplier, foreign multiplier and trade structure. The paper helps identifying the factors with the greatest potential to enhance the economic gains of climate finance in each country. This information can be useful for policy-makers trying to design national strategies that exploit the synergies between climate action and economic development.     

A bivariate causality between stock prices and exchange rates: evidence from recent Asianflu☆

This paper applies recently developed unit root and cointegration models to determine the appropriate Granger relations between stock prices and exchange rates using recent Asian flu data. Via impulse response functions, it is found that data from South Korea are in agreement with the traditional approach. That is, exchange rates lead stock prices. On the other hand, data of the Philippines suggest the result expected under the portfolio approach: stock prices lead exchange rates with negative correlation. Data from Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Taiwan indicate strong feedback relations, whereas that of Indonesia and Japan fail to reveal any recognizable pattern. %JEL classification: F300; G150     

The impact of VIX on China’s financial market: A new perspective based on high-dimensional and time-varying methods

Based on the new perspective of high-dimensional and time-varying methods, this paper analyzes the contagion effects of US financial market volatility on China’s nine financial sub-markets. The results show evidence of non-linear Granger causality from the US financial volatility (VIX) to the China’s financial markets. Increased US financial volatility has a negative next-day impact on the stock, bond, fund, interest rate, foreign exchange, industrial product and agricultural product markets, and a positive next-day impact on the gold and real estate markets. US financial volatility has the greatest impact on industrial product market, following by stock, agricultural product, fund, real estate, bond, gold, foreign exchange, and interest rates. Major risk events such as the global financial crisis can cause an enhanced contagion effect of US financial volatility to China's financial markets. This paper supports the achievements of China's actions to prevent and resolve major financial risks in the period of the COVID-19 epidemic.     

Economic growth,volatility and their interaction: What’s the role of finance?

This paper examines the relation between financial depth and the interaction of economic growth and its volatility. We use a sample of 52 countries for the period 1980–2011, and our main finding is that, at moderate levels of financial depth, further deepening increases the ratio of average growth to volatility; however, as financial depth increases, this relation reverts, and the rise in volatility overcomes that of economic growth. This result is obtained both in the medium and long run; however, the peak of the relation seems to be lower in the medium run (around 40%–55% of domestic credit/GDP) than in the long run (around 75%–99%). This suggests that increasing the level of domestic credit may intensify relative volatility in the medium term, but still raise relative long-term growth before the long-run threshold is achieved.