European equity markets volatility spillover: Destabilizing energy risk is the new normal

While energy risk is increasingly recognized as a systemic risk, there is limited comprehensive analysis of the risk propagation in regional contexts. In this study, we examine oil and natural gas price changes and shocks in relation to equity market returns and volatility for 24 European Economic Area (EEA) countries. In addition to traditional panel regressions, we also deploy the Diebold-Yilmaz (2014) spillover index for a closed network analysis. We differentiate in the cross-section across the core EU block, PIIGS countries, EU enlargement countries joining after 2004, and other non-EU countries, to provide insights into the ongoing debates on the European energy market stability. While we find evidence of the manifestation of energy risk throughout the sample period, we find that until 2019 the primary sources of volatility spillover in the EEA economic network arose from economic or political uncertainty. Energy risks, measured by large crude oil and natural gas price shocks also significantly contributed to equity market volatility, with increasing volatility risk arising from natural gas, a green labelled energy source after 2019. Last, we show that CEEC equity markets are more sensitive to oil and natural gas price shocks when domestic currencies depreciate against the Euro.     

Causality in volatility and volatility spillover effects between US, Japan and four equity markets in the South China Growth Triangular

In examining co-movement across international stock markets, previous researchers usually pre-determine the direction of causation and neglect the Chinese equity markets. In this study, we examine the spillover effects of volatility among the two developed markets and four emerging markets in the South China Growth Triangular using Chueng and Ng's causality-in-variance test. Several findings deserve mention: (1) the Japanese stock market affects the US stock market and there is a feedback relationship between the Hong Kong and US stock market. (2) Markets of the SCGT are contemporaneously correlated with the return volatility of the US market. (3) Econometric models constructed according to the results of variance-in-causality tests have greater explanatory power than the conventional GARCH(1,1) model. (4) Using the return volatility of foreign exchange as a proxy for informational arrival can explain excess kurtosis of a stock return series, especially for the less open emerging market. (5) Geographic proximity and economic ties do not necessarily lead to a strong relationship in volatility across markets.     

Asymmetry in return and volatility spillover between equity and bond markets in Australia

We document asymmetry in return and volatility spillover between equity and bond markets in Australia for daily returns during the period 1992–2006 using a bivariate GARCH modelling approach. Negative bond market returns spillover into lower stock market returns whereas good news originating in the equity market leads to lower bond returns. Bond market volatility spills over into the equity market but the reverse is not true. Transmission of bond volatility into equity volatility depends in a complex way upon the respective signs of the return shocks in each market.     

Covid-19 pandemic and spillover effects in stock markets: A financial network approach

This paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on 51 major stock markets, both emerging and developed. We isolated the countries susceptible to shock transmissions, and evaluated countries with immunity, during the lockdown. Specifically, using dependence dynamics and network analysis on a bivariate basis, we identify volatility and contagion risk among stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic. The empirical findings add to the existing body of literature, given that previous work has not placed emphasis on network topologic metrics when it comes to financial networks, specifically during the COVID-19. The evidence shows instant financial contagion a result of the lockdown and the spread of the novel coronavirus. The methodological framework outlines important information for investors and policymakers on using financial networks to improve portfolio selection, by placing an emphasis on assets according to centrality.     

Exchange rate volatility response to macroeconomic news during the global financial crisis

We investigate the volatility reaction to macroeconomic news in major currency markets during the recent global financial crisis. We first present an alternative method for determining the changes in economic states by endogenously estimating crisis thresholds. Second, we assess which macroeconomic indicator gave the earliest warning signal for the upcoming contraction. Third, we investigate whether there is a systematic change in the volatility reaction of exchange rates to news during the crisis period. We find that the estimated logistic transition function based on the housing starts data exhibits the earliest warning signal compared to other indicators. Our results suggest that although volatility response to most news indicators is larger in expansion, currency market reaction to new home sales and Fed funds rate news is larger in the crisis period. We attribute this finding to the context-specific relevance of the housing and credit sectors in the evolution of the global financial crisis.     

Dynamic correlations and volatility effects in the Balkan equity markets

This paper investigates the presence of time-varying comovements, volatility implications and dynamic correlations in major Balkan and leading mature equity markets, in order to provide quantified responses to international asset allocation decisions. Since asset returns and correlation dynamics are critical inputs in asset pricing, portfolio management and risk hedging, emphasis is placed on the respective (constant and dynamic) equity market correlations produced by alternative multivariate GARCH forms, the Constant Conditional Correlation and the Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation models. The Balkan stock markets are seen to exhibit time-varying correlations as a peer group, although correlations with the mature markets remain relatively modest. In conjunction with sensitivity analysis on the asymmetric variance–covariance matrix, active portfolio diversification to the Balkan equity markets indicates to potentially improve investors’ risk-return trade-off.     

Contagion,decoupling and the spillover effects of the US financial crisis: Evidence from the BRIC markets

Even though the global contagion effects of the financial crisis have been well documented, the transmission mechanism as well as the nature of the volatility spillovers among the US, the EU and the BRIC markets has not been systematically investigated. To examine the dynamic linear and nonlinear causal linkages a stepwise filtering methodology is introduced, for which vector autoregressions and various multivariate GARCH representations are adopted. The sample covers the after-Euro period and includes the financial crisis and the Eurozone debt crisis. The empirical results show that the BRICs have become more internationally integrated after the US financial crisis and contagion is further substantiated. Moreover, no consistent evidence in support of the “decoupling” view is found. Some nonlinear causal links persist after filtering during the examined period. This indicates that nonlinear causality can, to a large extent, be explained by simple volatility effects, although tail dependency and higher-moments may be significant factors of the remaining interdependencies.     

Linkages between Indian and US financial markets: impact of global financial crisis and Eurozone debt crisis

This paper examines inter-linkages between Indian and US equity, foreign exchange and money markets using the vector autoregressive-multivariate GARCH-BEKK framework. We investigate the impact of global financial crisis (GFC) and Eurozone debt crisis (EZDC) on the conditional volatility and conditional correlation estimates derived from the multivariate GARCH model for Indian and US financial markets. Our results indicate that there is significant bidirectional causality-in-mean between the Indian stock market returns and the Rs./USD market returns, and significant unidirectional causality-in-mean from the US stock market returns to the Indian stock market returns. As regards volatility spillovers, we find that volatility in the Indian stock market rises in response to domestic as well as US financial market shocks but Indian financial market shocks do not impact the US markets. Further, impact of the recent crisis episodes on the covariance matrix is found to be significant. We find that volatility in the Indian and US financial markets significantly amplified during GFC. The conditional correlations across asset markets were significantly accentuated in the wake of the two crisis episodes. The impact of GFC on cross-market conditional correlations is higher for majority of the asset market pairs in comparison to the EZDC.     

The financial crisis in Norway: effects on financial markets and measures taken

This article guides through the measures implemented in Norway in order to dampen negative effects stemming from the financial crisis. We also discuss some features of the Norwegian money market and the liquidity system in Norway. From the point of view of central banks, the widening gap between money market rates and the key policy rate has been one disturbing element of the financial crises. We develop a simple model, which illustrates how developments in forward exchange premiums can provide insight as to why money market premiums differ across currencies. The model shows that the excess supply of term liquidity in dollar relative to the excess supply of term liquidity in other currencies has an impact on the domestic money market premium relative to that on USD.     

Asymmetric volatility and risk in equity markets

It appears that volatility in equity markets is asymmetric:returns and conditional volatility are negatively correlated.We provide a unified framework to simultaneously investigateasymmetric volatility at the firm and the market level and toexamine two potential explanations of the asymmetry: leverageeffects and volatility feedback. Our empirical application usesthe market portfolio and portfolios with different leverageconstructed from Nikkei 225 stocks. We reject the pure leveragemodel of Christie (1982) and find support for a volatility feedbackstory. Volatility feedback at the firm level is enhanced bystrong asymmetries in conditional covariances. Conditional betasdo not show significant asymmetries. We document the risk premiumimplications of these findings.     

Relationship between gold and stock markets during the global financial crisis: Evidence from nonlinear causality tests

This paper investigates the nonlinear dynamic co-movements between gold returns, stock market returns and stock market volatility during the recent global financial crisis for the UK (FTSE 100), the US (S&P 500) and Japan (Nikkei 225). Initially, the bivariate dynamic relationships between i) gold returns and stock market returns and ii) gold returns and stock market volatility are tested; both of these relationships are further investigated in the multivariate nonlinear settings by including changes in the three-month LIBOR rates. In this paper correlation integrals based on the bivariate model show significant evidence of nonlinear feedback effect among the variables during the financial crisis period for all the countries understudy. Very limited evidence of significant feedback is found during the pre-crisis period. Results from the multivariate tests including changes in the LIBOR rates provide results similar to the bivariate results. These results imply that gold may not perform well as a safe haven during the financial crisis period due to the bidirectional interdependence between gold returns and, stock returns as well as stock market volatility. However, gold may be used as a hedge against stock market returns and volatility in stable financial conditions.     

Market-specific and currency-specific risk during the global financial crisis: Evidence from the interbank markets in Tokyo and London

This paper investigates how international money markets reflected credit and liquidity risk during the global financial crisis. After matching the currency denomination, we examine how the Tokyo Interbank Offered Rate (TIBOR) was synchronized with the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR). We find remarkably asymmetric responses in market-specific and currency-specific risk during the crisis. The regression results suggest that market-specific credit risk increased the difference across markets, whereas liquidity risk caused the difference across currency denominations. They also support the view that liquidity shortage of the US dollar occurred in international money markets during the crisis. Coordinated central bank liquidity provisions were useful in reducing the liquidity shortage of the US dollar, but their effectiveness was asymmetric across markets.     

Volatility linkages of the equity,bond and money markets: an implied volatility approach

This study proposes an alternative approach for examining volatility linkages between Standard & Poor's 500, Eurodollar futures and 30 year Treasury Bond futures markets using implied volatility from the three markets. Simple correlation analysis between implied volatilities in the three markets is used to assess market correlations. Spurious correlation effects are considered and controlled for. I find that correlations between implied volatilities in the equity, money and bond markets are positive, strong and robust. Furthermore, I replicate the approach of Fleming, Kirby and Ostdiek (1998) to check the substitutability of the implied volatility approach and find that the results are nearly identical; I conclude that my approach is simple, robust and preferable in practice. I also argue that the results from this paper provide supportive evidence on the information content of implied volatilities in the equity, bond and money markets.     

Demand for debt and equity before and after the financial crisis

Supply and demand responses to financial crises result in fluctuations in credit flow to the private sector. Policy makers concerned with the sustainability and growth of viable firms should disaggregate these responses. Utilising firm level data, this study investigates characteristics of firms applying for external finance before and after the financial crisis, along with characteristics of successful applicants. Notwithstanding changes in credit conditions, salient features of external financing demand endure across the period, including ownership, asset structure, age and size. Failure to secure debt in an earlier period does not deter firm owners from applying for loans in a subsequent period. Evidence suggests that the most financially distressed firms are suffering the greatest consequences of the credit crunch.     

Foreign reserve management during the global financial crisis

This paper examines how countries managed their foreign currency reserves during the global financial crisis. Evidence based on changes in reserve stocks suggests that many governments, even those with high levels of pre-crisis reserves, were reluctant to use them during the crisis. As a consequence, a number of recent studies of cross-country experiences during the crisis find little evidence of a positive role for reserves in macroeconomic crisis-management. This paper examines whether this assessment of the non-role of reserves during the crisis is justified. While the reserve stock data indicates stable reserve levels for many countries during the crisis, distinguishing between reserve changes that occurred due to interest income and valuation changes on existing assets and asset purchases and sales, indicates that many emerging economies actively depleted reserves. Further, the data indicate that countries whose pre-crisis reserve levels were in excess of what can be explained by standard models of reserve accumulation were the most likely to sell reserve assets during the crisis.     

Detecting signed spillovers in global financial markets: A Markov-switching approach

We examine the dynamics of the signed-spillover across financial markets using historical decomposition approach. By incorporating Markov-switching framework into the VAR model, this paper assesses the dynamics of signed-spillover during turbulent periods and period of tranquillity. Additionally, this approach enables us to detect the source and direction of the spillover and identify its signs. We show that this approach outperforms the classical single-regime spillover estimation by distinguishing shocks under different economic conditions. Specifically, we assess spillovers in global financial markets using realised variance between January 1999 and December 2017. Our empirical findings clearly indicate that spillovers are intense during period of turbulence and moderate during periods of tranquillity.     

No place to hide: The global crisis in equity markets in 2008/2009

This paper provides a broad analysis of the effect of the current financial crisis on global equity markets and their major components. We also examine the magnitude of the crisis in terms of value destruction in comparison to other market crashes. In brief, upon looking at return performance across an array of regions, countries, and sectors, broad market averages are down approximately 40% on their end of 2006 levels. While deterioration started in most markets in early to mid 2008, the crisis period of mid-September to the end of October 2008 is responsible for the lion's share of the collapse with just about all indices falling 30–40% in this short period. Financial sectors have taken a bigger hit than non-financials over the period, though they both suffered similarly during the peak of the crisis. Due to larger rises in 2007 the emerging markets drop more in 2008 than developed markets but in large part end up at the same level as the other markets. The global nature of the crisis is also apparent from the high correlations between markets and investment styles that further increased during the crisis. As a result, diversification provided little help to investors when needed most as markets dropped in tandem.     

The global financial crisis and the evolution of markets, institutions and regulation

This paper analyses the recent global financial crisis in the context of the dual processes of market development and regulation. It discusses how, in the absence of a globally integrated financial framework, past and present regulations and interventions in reaction to national and global financial crises did not resolve the cross border regulatory arbitrage. The paper discusses how crises often lead to the emergence of new national and international institutions. It also analyses the proposed “new global framework” that needs to be in place if the policy recommendations contained in the G20 communiqué are going to be effectively implemented. The paper argues that unless international agreements are ratified by all nations and become part of national rules and laws, the presence of regulatory arbitrage and the lack of adequate cross border information and data may prevent the global economy from addressing the underlying causes of the recent global financial crisis. The paper also discusses the evolution of central banks and their new role in contributing to global financial stability. The paper argues that the recent global financial crisis has provided a unique opportunity to go beyond economic data and attempt to capture cross border financial data and other information that could assist international and national institutions to measure and manage financial risk more effectively. Finally, the paper discusses “too big to fail” and argues that only an internationally integrated financial system will make large banks global, both when operational and in the event of insolvency.     

Nonparametric realized volatility estimation in the international equity markets

Using high-frequency intraday data, we construct, test and model seven new realized volatility estimators for six international equity indices. We detect jumps in these estimators, construct the jump components of volatility and perform various tests on their properties. Then we use the class of heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) models for assessing the relevant effects of jumps on volatility. Our results expand and complement the previous literature on the nonparametric realized volatility estimation in terms of volatility jumps being examined and modeled for the international equity market, using such a variety of new realized volatility estimators. The selection of realized volatility estimator greatly affects jump detection, magnitude and modeling. The properties each volatility estimator tries to incorporate affect the detection, magnitude and properties of jumps. These volatility-estimation and jump properties are also evident in jump modeling based on statistical and economic terms.     

Common stochastic trends and volatility in Asian-Pacific equity markets

This paper uses Johansen's cointegration test and a modified cointegration test with generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) effects to examine linkages between the U.S. and five Asian-Pacific stock markets (Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia, and Singapore) during the period from 1988 to 1994. The modified cointegration test with GARCH effects is used to assess whether these stock price series share common time-varying volatility. The results indicate that the six stock markets are highly integrated through the second moments of stock returns but not the first moments.