我国短期融资券募集资金是否存在短融长投——对中国上市公司的实证研究

本文以发行短期融资券的上市公司为样本,用回归分析的方法实证研究了上市公司短期融资券募集资金的使用情况。实证结果显示短期融资券发行额与营运资金增加额呈显著的负相关关系,与长期资产现金支出、以及偿还债务所支付的现金均呈显著的正相关关系。表明上市公司发行短期融资券募集的资金存在短融长投及集中还贷的现象,也就反映了企业利用市场时机进行融资、并用短期资金进行长期投资的行为。这种短融长投的行为可能因为投融资期限不匹配而导致企业财务风险,并给投资者带来一定的兑付风险。     

Moral hazard,debt overhang and capital structure

This paper investigates the impact of managerial moral hazard on the debt overhang of a firm by constructing a contingent claims model in which the manager faces costly effort. Using a calibrated capital structure model, we show that the costs of debt overhang become more serious in the presence of managerial moral hazard. Such costs even account for more than half of the total agency costs at a high level of cash flow. Moreover, in contrast to the results of Hackbarth and Mauer (2012), our model predicts a U-shaped relationship between the leverage ratio and investment opportunities of a firm, which is caused by managers’ moral hazard. Finally, by considering this moral hazard, we also show the coexistence of low leverage ratios and high credit spreads, which explains the phenomenon of “low debt levels and high credit spreads” observed in practice.     

Capitalizing Non-cancelable Operating Leases

There have been recent international moves to require the capitalization of non‐cancelable operating leases. Most prior research on the constructive capitalization of leases has been undertaken on US data. The results from US studies may not apply to international firms because non‐US operating lease contracts may differ in lease term, discount rates, and renewal options. This study presents the financial statement impact of constructive capitalization for 38 firms listed on the New Zealand Stock Exchange. New Zealand is an appropriate institutional setting because the required footnote disclosures for operating leases are similar to the International Accounting Standard. The method of constructive capitalization follows the general approach developed by Imhoff, et al. (1991) . The results show that constructive capitalization has a material impact on reported liabilities and financial ratios. The results suggest that, relative to present value procedures of constructive lease capitalization, heuristics used by analysts lead to the overstatement of lease liabilities and lease assets. However, the use of single cross‐sectional parameters (e.g., discount rates, lease life) results in constructed lease assets and liabilities that are similar to more elaborate firm‐specific procedures.     

基于Logistic模型的物流业上市公司财务预警

从物流业104家A股上市公司中选取了60家上市公司作为样本,分别用提取主成分构建逻辑回归模型和原指标构建逻辑回归模型的方法进行财务预警研究,得出了以下结论:用聚类分析方法判断上司公司是否处于财务困境能减少误差且更具有现实意义,方便投资者做出投资决策;主成分构建的逻辑回归模型和原指标构建的逻辑回归模型预测效果并无显著差异,构建的Logistic模型预测正确性都在80%左右,预测效果良好;在以后研究物流业上市公司财务预警时,必须考虑选取主营业务收入增长率、流动资产周转率、现金债务总额比和现金流量比率四个财务指标。     

基于自由现金流的投资组合研究

本文运用我国股市1998～2006年间的财务报表数据,选择正自由现金流、低自由现金流乘数和低财务杠杆的大公司,对其以自由现金流为基础的投资组合进行了检验。结果显示,以自由现金流为基础的投资组合回报始终优于市场指数,说明在我国股市实行基于自由现金流的投资组合是积极可行的。     

对我国股份制公司交叉持股的探讨

文章指出,上市公司交叉持股带来的股权投资增值,意味着这些交叉持股公司面临价值重估机遇,尤其是一些持有大量流通股的公司,由于变现能力强,也易于在公司业绩中得到体现。据新会计准则,上市公司交叉持股的股权将由成本法统计改成权益法统计,这将极大增加上市公司的价值,这些股权将出现在"交易性金融资产"、"可供出售金融资产"、"持有至到期投资"3个新的会计科目中。     

基于增量与流量关系的企业财务状况动态研究——总资产增加的原因与结构分析

企业财务分析的核心是对于财务状况的分析。影响财务状况的变量包括资产负债存量及其变化所引致的增量,现金流量和收入费用流量是导致增量的本质因素。本文分析了增量与流量之间存在的各类关系,并着重从总资产增加的原因与结构上进行了探讨。     

After Modigliani,Miller, and Hamada: A new way to estimate cost of capital

In this article, we discuss the impact of financial debt on shareholder value using a new approach that aims: (a) to explain the effect that leverage from debt has on a stock’s systematic risk, or what we shall call here “the systematic cost of leverage,” and (b) to account for default risk in the cost of equity, or what we shall call here “the cost of default.” Our assessment of systematic risk is based on a stochastic approach that is materially different from the one proposed by Hamada: the risk premium remunerates the investor for the probability of equity (expressed as market value) generating a return below that of the risk‐free rate. Furthermore, the approach we use to account for default risk is derived from reduced‐form models, but in this case, (a) we use real probabilities of default and not risk‐neutral probabilities, and (b) we extend the approach to stocks.     

The association of default risk factors with the systematic risk of corporate bonds

This study examines the association between bond betas and default risk factors. We find that both long-term debt and the relative ratio of long-term debt to short-term debt increase the bond beta; two measures of profitability, net income/total assets and EBIT/total assets and a cash flow measure of cash flow from operations/total assets decrease the bond beta. A proxy measure of standard deviation of returns is also significantly negatively related to bond betas, confirming the prediction from the option pricing model. In addition, by using new cash flow measures in the discriminant analysis, we improve on the successful prediction rate of bond ratings.     

所有权性质、融资约束与企业投资——基于投资现金流敏感性的经验证据

本文通过研究中国制造业上市公司投资支出与其内部现金流的敏感性,分析经济转轨过程中不同所有权企业融资约束的变动情况。研究发现:(1)制造业上市公司存在明显的融资约束,且民营企业的融资约束明显高于国有企业;(2)在研究期间,全部样本企业的投资现金流敏感性随时间逐渐降低;(3)预算软约束的存在,使得国有企业投资现金流敏感性随时间下降的幅度比民营企业低。     

上市公司财务危机预警模型构建

本文以2005年发生ST的A股上市公司为研究对象,采用行业和总股本规模作为选择配对样本的标准,构建了上市公司财务危机预警模型。预警指标除选择常用的财务指标外还引入了现金流量指标,并运用费雪(Fisher)判别准则,通过实证研究建立线性判别函数,以期为预测上市公司财务危机提供参考。     

上市公司财务危机预警“Z”值区域研究与分析

本文以上市公司作为研究对象,将公司因财务状况异常而被特别处理(ST)作为企业陷入财务困境的标志,利用奥特曼的Z记分模型作多元判别分析,测试符合我国上市公司实际情况的Z值,并将其作为我国上市公司财务危机预警的指标值。实证结果显示,采用多元判别分析可以得到判别财务危机公司与非财务危机公司的Z值区域,并且可以保证较高的判别精确度。同时也发现,相对于主营业务收入指标,现金流量指标为更好的警兆指标。     

Partial cross-quantilogram networks: Measuring quantile connectedness of financial institutions

We propose partial cross-quantilogram networks for measuring the connectedness of 30 China’s financial institutions at different quantiles. We find that networks at the extreme quantiles are more closely connected than those at the median quantile. The network density and centrality show that the systemically important financial institutions vary across different quantiles. We observe an asymmetric effect in quantile connectedness during the period of “2015–16 Chinese stock market turbulence;” that is, the network connectedness at the lower quantile (i.e., 0.05 quantile) is higher than that at the upper and median quantiles (i.e., 0.95 and 0.50 quantiles). By analyzing the similarity of networks across quantiles, we find that the similarity index is relatively high in the crisis period. Our study provides useful information on connectedness of financial institutions for regulators and investors.     

Corporate groups,liquidity, and overinvestment by Belgian firms quoted on the Brussels stock exchange

For a sample of large Belgian non-financial firms quoted on the Brussels stock exchange, it is found that investment of firms borrowing on an internal capital market is not determined by internal cash flow, while cash flow has a significant effect on investment for the other firms in the sample. Further analysis indicates that the cash flow effect is caused by overinvestment, not by financing constraints. No evidence is found that firms borrowing on an internal capital market in turn transfer surpluses of funds to other group members by investing in financial fixed assets. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Accounting for derivatives: An evaluation of reporting practice by UK banks

In 1995, the Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants (CICA) changed its Generally Accepted Accounting Principles on accounting for joint ventures from permitting a choice between the equity method (EM) and proportionate consolidation (PC) to requiring only PC. More recently, the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) has decided to issue a new standard that will eliminate choice between EM and PC and require only EM; but as of October 2010 a new standard was still to be issued. The past Canadian and proposed IASB changes are similar in that choice between the same two reporting methods is removed but differ in the required alternative, PC for Canada and EM for the IASB. In this paper we use a sample of Canadian companies over the period 1985–2003 to study financial reporting for joint ventures. To our knowledge, our Canadian sample is the only one reflecting a reduction of choice in financial reporting methods for joint ventures. Therefore, our results have particular relevance for evaluating the IASB's proposed change. Specifically, we investigate whether firms that use EM between 1985 and 1994 experience a decline in value relevance of key balance sheet amounts such as total assets and liabilities when forced to use PC from 1995 onwards. Since 1995 firms are also required to provide footnote disclosures on their share of joint venture assets and liabilities in addition to revenues, expenses and cash flows. Using these disclosures, we investigate whether disaggregate joint venture assets and liabilities are incrementally and overall value relevant. We find that firms that are forced to switch from EM to PC experience a decline in value relevance of reported assets and liabilities. The firms that use PC for the entire sample period experience no such decline. We also find that joint venture assets and liabilities are incrementally and overall value relevant when disclosures are mandatory from 1995 onwards. Our results show that the removal of choice of financial reporting method does have value-relevance implications, something that is of importance to users. We also find that the requirement of additional disclosure of joint venture assets and liabilities is value relevant, which may offset, to some extent, the costs of the reduction in choice. Our inferences may have implications for a number of jurisdictions across Europe and beyond that are affected by a similar reduction of accounting choice proposed by the IASB.     

Prices,debt and market structure in an agent-based model of the financial market

We develop an agent-based model in which heterogeneous and boundedly rational agents interact by trading a risky asset at an endogenously set price. Agents are endowed with balance sheets comprising the risky asset as well as cash on the asset side and equity capital as well as debt on the liabilities side. A number of findings emerge when simulating the model: we find that the empirically observable log-normal distribution of bank balance sheet size naturally emerges and that higher levels of leverage lead to a greater inequality among agents. Furthermore, greater leverage increases the frequency of bankruptcies and systemic events. Credit frictions, which we define as the stickiness of debt adjustments, are able to explain a key difference in the relation between leverage and assets observed for different bank types. Lowering credit frictions leads to an increasingly procyclical behavior of leverage, which is typical for investment banks. Nevertheless, the impact of credit frictions on the fragility of the model financial system is complex. Lower frictions do increase the stability of the system most of the time, while systemic events become more probable. In particular, we observe an increasing frequency of severe liquidity crises that can lead to the collapse of the entire model financial system.     

现金持有与研发投入的相关性研究——基于我国A股上市公司数据

采用2007—2013年沪深两市A股上市公司作为样本,对现金持有与研发投入的关系进行分析,结果显示:研发投入越多的企业的现金持有水平越高;期初现金持有越多的企业研发投入越多,研发-现金敏感性越显著,而且随着现金持有量的增加该敏感性会逐渐下降;相比于成熟期公司,成长期公司现金持有与研发投入之间的正相关性更强,而且成长期公司的研发-现金敏感性不会随着现金持有水平的增加而下降。     

Dependence structures between Chinese stock markets and the international financial market: Evidence from a wavelet-based quantile regression approach

In this study, we investigate the dependence structures between six Chinese stock markets and the international financial market including possible safe haven assets and global economic factors under different market conditions and investment horizons. The research is conducted by combining a quantile regression approach with a wavelet decomposition analysis. Although we find little or insignificant dependence under short investment horizons, we detect the strong asymmetric dependence of oil prices and the US dollar index on the six Chinese stock markets in the medium and long terms. Moreover, not only is crude oil not a safe haven, it may damage Chinese stock markets as it increases over the long term, even in bull markets. Meanwhile, appreciation of the US dollar (depreciation of RMB) damages (boosts) Chinese stock markets during bull (bear) market conditions under long investment horizons. Moreover, we find that VIX (volatility index)-related derivatives may serve as good risk management tools under any market condition, while gold is a safe haven asset only during crisis periods.     

CEO Stock‐Based Incentive Compensation and Firm Performance: A Quantile Regression Approach

This study employs the quantile regression model to examine the non‐monotonic impact of CEO stock‐based compensation on firm performance, using the data for U.S. non‐financial firms from 1993 to 2005. The results indicate that while the impact of CEO stock‐based pay on firm performance is positive for firms in the higher earnings quantile levels, the impact is negative for firms in the lower levels. In addition, the “V‐shaped” relationship between CEO stock‐based pay and firm performance satisfactorily explains the longstanding disagreement among earlier studies with regard to whether CEO stock‐based pay can enhance firm performance. Furthermore, the quantile‐varying pattern of the impact of stock‐based compensation on firm performance is robust after controlling for the industrial and yearly effects. It is also robust to the use of the pay‐for‐performance sensitivity as an alternative explanatory variable or the market‐based measure of performance as the dependent variable, or the consideration of the suspected endogenous problem between firm performance and stock‐based compensation.     

不同规模制造业上市公司投资与现金流关系研究

本文对制造业上市公司在不同规模下投资与现金流关系进行了理论分析;其次以我国沪深两市制造业上市公司2004～2007年的财务数据为样本,以企业规模为分组标准,利用实证检验投资与现金流之间的关系。通过理论分析和实证研究,得知与大规模企业相比,小规模企业投资对现金流依赖性更强。