STADIUM CONSTRUCTION AND MINOR LEAGUE BASEBALL ATTENDANCE

The established literature shows that new stadium construction for major league baseball (MLB) teams can increase attendance, but there are limited studies at the minor league level. We use a data set encompassing all A, AA, and AAA minor league baseball teams from 1992 to 2006 to estimate the impact of stadium construction on minor league attendance. This data set includes almost 200 teams, over half of which constructed a new stadium during the 15‐year observation period. Over a 10‐year period our results show that new stadiums increase attendance by 1.2 million fans at the AAA level, 0.4 million at the AA and high A level, and 0.2 million at short season low A. A cost benefit analysis suggests that increased ticket sales do not offset the stadium costs, in line with previous works on MLB. (JEL H0, L83)     

A case for complements? Location and attendance in Major League Soccer

As Major League Soccer (MLS) continues to award expansion franchises throughout North America, the league must be considerate of how new clubs may impact attendance levels at nearby clubs. Regardless of whether new MLS clubs are awarded to cities with strong North American Soccer League histories, league officials must be mindful of the effect that geographically close competitors can have on attendance. Perhaps stemming from the limited number of clubs in competition, MLS teams currently appear to operate as strategic complements to one another, increasing season-long attendance as teams locate closer to one another.     

A COMPENSATING DIFFERENTIAL APPROACH TO VALUING THE SOCIAL BENEFIT OF MINOR LEAGUE BASEBALL

This research utilizes a compensating differential framework to measure the social benefits of minor league baseball teams. Consistent with findings at the major league level, individual housing observations from 138 metropolitan areas between 1993 and 2005 show that affiliated teams are associated with a significant 6 to 8% increase in rents in mid‐sized markets ranging from 0.4 to 1.4 million people. On the other hand, independent teams and stadiums are associated with insignificant effects on rents. The positive effect of affiliated minor league teams suggests they are a valuable urban amenity that can contribute to local quality of life. (JEL H23, H41, H71, R50, L83)     

Revealed preferences for car tax cuts: an empirical study of perceived fiscal incidence

In this paper, the authors examine the economic and policy implications of the National Football League (NFL) ‘blackout rule,’ a league rule that prohibits local television broadcast of games that are not sold out at least 72 hours prior to game time. The foundation for understanding and assessing the impact of the blackout rule is an analysis of attendance using data on games during the 1996–1997 National Football League season. Expanding on previous research, three separate components of attendance (season ticket sales, game day ticket sales, and game day noshows) are examined in detail. Accounting for the endogeneity of key variables, Tobit and Probit analyses are used to estimate and predict individual game attendance. These empirical estimates are then used as a vehicle to assess the implications of game day blackouts and the potential for public policy intervention. More specifically, the authors begin by estimating the impact of the blackout on game day attendance. Using these estimates, they assess the implications of imposing a local blackout for individual team revenues. The gain in on-site stadium revenue due to the blackout (e.g., through additional ticket and concession sales) are then viewed in the broader context of the societal loss due to the game not being broadcast in the local area. The empirical results suggest that the gain in team revenue is small in comparison to the loss of viewership rights. This suggests that public policy intervention may be possible that would result in a Pareto superior market outcome. The paper concludes by exploring possible intervention strategies.     

Our fans in the north: the demand for British Rugby League

This paper reports the results of estimating a single equation model of an attendance function for British Rugby League over the seasons 1982/83 to 1990/91. The data are panel data covering virtually every team which played in the two division league over the nine year time period. Diagnostic tests indicate that the appropriate model is a semilog random effects model, where the dependent variable is league attendance weighted by population. The major results are as follows: there are significant positive relationships between league attendance and various measures of team success (although the direction of causality is moot), team quality (as proxied by the two divisions) and the economic quality of team location (as proxied by the unemployment rate); but there is no discernible relationship between league attendance and either success in nonleague trophy competitions or measures of exceptional player quality.     

NOVELTY EFFECTS OF NEW FACILITIES ON ATTENDANCE AT PROFESSIONAL SPORTING EVENTS

We investigate the effect of new facilities on attendance in professional baseball, basketball, and football from 1969 to 2001. We find a strong, persistent effect in baseball and basketball, and little effect in football. Size and duration estimates imply that baseball teams sell 2,500,794 additional tickets over the first eight seasons, basketball teams 293,878 over the first nine seasons, and football teams 137,792 over the first five seasons, implying an increase in revenues that could defray public subsidies that state and local governments provide for new sports construction projects. Rough calculations suggest that stadium subsidies are an inefficient method of subsidizing professional sports franchises. (JEL R39 , D12 , L83 )     

ESTIMATING THE IMPACT OF MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL GAMES ON LOCAL AIR POLLUTION

Professional sporting events attract millions of fans to urban areas each year as they cheer on their favorite teams. While benefits, such as increased tax revenues and economic development, are often cited as reasons to host a professional sports franchise, the public and private costs receive much less attention. This paper uses air quality readings from the Environmental Protection Agency and Major League Baseball schedules to estimate the impact of Major League Baseball games on local air pollution. The results suggest that attendance at a Major League Baseball game has a statistically significant but negligible impact on local air pollution. (JEL Q53, R11)     

The demand for cricket: the case of the John Player League

Multiple regression analysis is used to estimate attendance functions (1976 and 1977) for the John Player League, one of the one-day competitions in English top-class cricket. Likely determinants of attendance are grouped according to whether they are economic, locational, team performance, player attraction, seasonal and residual preference factors. The results suggest implications for the management of the game in respect of pricing strategy, scheduling, the structure of competition, player qualification rules, payment scales and television policy.     

Just looking for a good game: competitive balance in the Korean Professional Baseball League

Rottenberg’s uncertainty of outcome hypothesis is about preferences that can vary across fans and sports. We provide the first evidence of the empirical power of the hypothesis in the Korean Professional Baseball League (KPBL). In a panel data set, team-level aggregation over years shows that fans of this league attend in ways consistent with the hypothesis at the level of game uncertainty and consecutive season uncertainty, but only the first is statistically significant. KPBL fans appear to just be looking for a good game. This is consistent with the nearly complete concentration of post-season participation among a very few teams outside of the major population centre in Seoul and a lack of local team identification among KPBL fans. Our work adds to the diversity of league structures in the competitive balance literature since talent levels in KPBL are the result of parent company advertising choices rather than geographic identification. There are research questions and a policy implication.     

Ownership of property-rights and the allocation of talents

Under the reserve-clause system that assigns the property-rights on the Major League Baseball players’ services to teams, player transfers are negotiated between teams without the involvement of players. In contrast, under the current free-agency system, players with free-agent status negotiate directly with potential suitors. Thus, the system assigns the property-rights to players. Using data extracted from the Baseball Archive (http://baseball1.com), this article examines the effect of the change in the property-rights assignment on the allocation of talents across teams. We find that the change increased large-market teams’ shares of veteran all-star players and the concentration of senior players.     

Reputation and the league standing effect: the case of a split season in minor league baseball

Split season league design resets standings at the midpoint of the season, thus allowing for two periods in which a team can potentially achieve success in a single season. This context allows us to test both the reputation of the first half winner and the league standing effect on demand. Examination of game-level data from the 2010 Southern League reveals fans are unaffected by measures of both team quality and league standing in the second half of the season. On the other hand, the first half winners saw an 11% increase in attendance as a percent of stadium capacity, suggesting that in the second half of the season winners matter more than winning.     

The effects of labour strikes on consumer demand in professional sports: revisited

Previous research has concluded that the 1981 and 1994–1995 Major League Baseball (MLB) strikes have caused short-term losses in attendance but have not resulted in any long-term effects on attendance. While total attendance at MLB games following the 1994–1995 strike has recovered to its pre-strike levels, this has been done only through the construction of new stadiums at an unprecedented pace which cannot continue into the future. After accounting for stadium effects, average MLB baseball attendance has dropped significantly since the 1994–1995 strike.     

Prospective measures of competitive balance application to money lines in the national hockey league

The authors have previously introduced the concept of utilizing point spreads to measure competitive balance in professional sports and a methodology for doing so. They assessed competitive balance in the National Football League and the National Basketball Association. This methodology was extended to measuring competitive balance utilizing money lines in major league baseball. This study starts by applying the same model to the money lines for the 2005–2015 seasons to measure competitive balance in the National Hockey League. It then statistically adjusts the money lines under various scenarios to estimate the effects of overtime rules and shootouts on competitive balance. Similar analyses of overtime effects on competitive balance of other sports are also completed for comparison purposes. The results indicate that competitive balance in the National Hockey League increased rather substantially during this period and that overtime rules and shootouts have had a much larger positive impact on competitive balance in the NHL than overtime approaches have had on the competitive balance of any of the other sports examined.     

FAVORITISM AND REFEREE BIAS IN EUROPEAN SOCCER: EVIDENCE FROM THE SPANISH LEAGUE AND THE UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

In this paper, we test for, and find evidence of, referee bias in favor of home teams in European football using minute‐by‐minute analysis to control for within‐game events. The context for the analysis is Spain's Primera Liga and the Union of European Football Association (UEFA) Champions League. We find that the award of sanctions by Spanish referees in the Champions League are not significantly different to those of the referees from other countries and as such are subject to the same sources of bias. In Primera Liga matches where the crowd is separated from the pitch by running tracks, we find that the probability of the award of a yellow card to the home team is higher and that of the away team is lower compared to matches played at stadia without running tracks. Similar results are found in the Champions League, where efforts are made to hire “neutral” referees. Referee behavior is also influenced by the size of the crowd in attendance. (JEL D8, J2)     

INTEGRATION OF NORTH AND SOUTH AMERICAN PLAYERS IN JAPAN'S PROFESSIONAL BASEBALL LEAGUES

Teams in Japan's two professional baseball leagues began to add foreign players in the early 1950s, with the average number per team reaching 5.79 in 2004. This was primarily because foreign hitters outperformed Japanese hitters. Hazard analysis shows that a poorly performing team was more likely to hire its first Caucasian and African American players earlier than a successful team. Econometric analysis of team use of foreign players over 45 seasons (1960–2004) shows that losing Central League teams used foreign players more often in following season(s), whereas past success of Pacific League teams did not affect their use of foreign players.     

Location and attendance in major league baseball

This study uses a travel-cost model to analyse the attendance impacts on Major League Baseball (MLB) of the closest substitute MLB team. It is found that the closer two teams are, the lower attendance is at each team relative to two teams that are farther apart. In addition, when a new team moves into the area of an existing team, there is an additional initial reduction in attendance for the incumbent team. This has implications for actions aimed at changing the number of teams in MLB either by contraction or by possible antitrust approaches that would increase the number of teams, especially in megalopolis markets. Further, and consistent with past demand studies, pricing is in the inelastic portion of gate demand and fan loyalty is a significant contributor to the estimation of gate attendance.     

Value of public goods from sports stadiums: the CVM approach

Many state and local governments have subsidized the construction of arenas and stadium for the use of professional sports teams. They often justify the subsidies by claiming the projects generate valuable public goods and positive externalities, though such benefits are difficult to measure. This article reports an application of the contingent valuation method (CVM) to measure the value of public goods generated by two proposed projects in Lexington, Kentucky: a new basketball arena for the University of Kentucky and a minor league baseball stadium. Neither project would generate sufficiently valuable public goods to justify public financing. Although the results cannot be generalized to other cases, they do shed light on some of the main issues involved, and they demonstrate the feasibility of applying CVM to the evaluation of the subsidized stadiums.     

Major league baseball’s Moneyball at age 15: a re-appraisal

In the 15 years since publication of the book Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game in 2003, major-league baseball (MLB) has seen the embrace of analytics by both fans and teams. Using 45 seasons of MLB data, since the introduction of the designated-hitter in the American League in 1973, the present study validates the central premise in Moneyball regarding the importance of certain performance metrics, such as on-base percentage (OBP). The terms in our empirical model are constructed such that our results permit a straightforward comparison of the relative contribution of each factor towards MLB teams’ success in winning games. We also provide evidence indicating that MLB teams have moved to align their payrolls with Moneyball analytics in the years following the book’s publication.     

Two universal,probabilistic measures of competitive imbalance

I propose two universal measures of competitive imbalance. The first is, like those in the existing literature, based on team season win–loss records. The second is based solely on the outcomes of the various series of individual matchups during a season. Both measures will on average equal (2p ? 1)², where p is the ‘typical’ probability that the stronger team will win any particular game. Both measures will average zero when a league is competitively balanced and will converge to 1 as the league approaches perfect imbalance. In addition, both measures are universal, in that they are on average independent of the number of teams in the league and the number of games played during the season.     

SATELLITE TELEVISION AND THE DEMAND FOR FOOTBALL: A WHOLE NEW BALL GAME?

A recent development in the UK television industry has been the emergence of satellite coverage of sporting events. This paper examines the relationship between broadcasting and football, culminating in the 1992 joint BBC and BSkyB contract to televise the English Premier League. A demand function is estimated which exteds the familiar model of attendance to incorporate television together with quadratic functions. We find that, although live transmission reduces attendance, the net financial consequences are positive for Premier League teams. Moreover, significant estimators are found for the quadratic functions of pricel earnings, distance, seasonal trend and length of Premier League status.