The impact of government debt on the long-run natural real interest rate – a quantitative evaluation

Persistently low natural real interest rates are a problem for monetary policy and financial stability. I analyse to what extent a permanent increase in government debt that is financed by higher taxes could raise the long-run natural real interest rate. As a measurement tool, I use an incomplete markets model with capital and government bonds. Increasing the public debt/GDP ratio by one percentage point raises the real interest rate by between 0.4 and 1.5 basis points, depending on the degree of inequality generated by the model and the tax instrument used to balance the government’s budget constraint. I also show that the interest rate effect of a change in public debt/GDP predicted by the model is significantly smaller than its empirical counterpart for the US, due to the fact that the model understates the empirical fraction of households that are constrained in their consumption decision.     

Sustainability of public debt,public capital formation,and endogenous growth in an overlapping generations setting

Under the golden rule of public finance for public investment with a constant budget deficit/GDP ratio, we show that for the sustainability of government budget deficits there is a threshold of the initial public debt for a given stock of public capital, and that this threshold level of public debt is increasing in the stock of public capital. If the initial public debt is greater than the threshold, the government can no longer sustain budget deficits, while if it is smaller, the government can conduct a permanent deficit policy, which eventually leads to a positive public debt/GDP ratio.     

External sustainability in Spanish economy: Bubbles and crises, 1970–2020

We address the issue of the sustainability Spain's external debt, using data for the period 1970–2020. To detect episodes of potentially explosive behavior of the Spanish net foreign assets over GDP ratio and the current account balance over GDP ratio, as well as episodes of external adjustments over this long period, we employ a recursive unit root test approach. Our empirical analysis leads us to conclude that there is some evidence of bubbles in the ratio between Spanish net foreign assets and the GDP. In contrast, the evidence that the ratio between the Spanish current account balance and the GDP had explosive subperiods is very weak. The episode of explosive behavior identified in the position of net foreign assets during the period 2002–2015 was the result of the country's economic expansion 1995–2007. The results also show an external adjustment during the period 2008–2019 after the start of a cyclical economic recession.     

How big is the Chinese Government debt?

China’s public debt does not provide a meaningful guidance about the government’s overall debt burden, since it also has various forms of contingent liabilities such as shortfalls in the pension fund, debts of local government investment vehicles, and nonperforming loans of the state-owned commercial banks. However, there is no authoritative data on the government’s overall debt burden. In this paper, we try to put together a complete picture by piecing together information available, following a consistent framework. Our results suggest that the Chinese Government’s total debt could be already above 100% of GDP, in contrast to the public debt/GDP ratio of 15.5. Urgent reforms are needed in order to reduce fiscal risks, although risks of debt crisis look small in the short term, given sound balance sheet of the public sector. Local governments’ borrowing without hard budget constraint presents the greatest risk to sustainability of China’s fiscal system.     

Ricardian equivalence and fiscal distortions in the Dominican Republic

This paper tests the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis in the context of the Dominican Republic (DR). The results rejected the Ricardian theorem but a weaker version is shown to have significant implications for the DR. If the government borrows to increase spending, private consumption is crowded out and the economy will suffer in the long run. The outcome is worst if the government borrows to deliver a tax cut. In particular, for every RD$ 1.00 of additional debt incurred to finance government primary spending, private consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) fall by a meaningful RD$ 2.15 and RD$ 1.15 respectively. If the debt is used to finance the tax cut, the fall is RD$ 2.15 in both consumption and output. Interestingly, if the government uses taxes to cover a budget deficit, the effect is neutral and consistent with Ricardian equivalence. The paper argues that fiscal distortions are in part responsible for these multipliers. Distortions are estimated to be 21 % coming from different sources including taxes evasion and fiscal drainage. These findings suggest that the DR could benefit from either reducing the level of fiscal distortions or the size and scope of the Dominican government. If, however, the government continues to pursue an active fiscal role under the current environment, it will generate an unnecessary burden to consumption and economic growth.     

PUBLIC DEBT AND PUBLIC INVESTMENT IN AN ENDOGENOUS GROWTH MODEL WITH REAL WAGE RIGIDITIES

We present an endogenous growth model with public capital, public debt and real wage rigidities due to labor market imperfections. Assuming that the primary surplus relative to gross domestic produce (GDP) is a positive function of the debt to GDP ratio, we study growth and employment effects of deficit‐financed public investment using simulations as well as how fiscal policy affects stability of the economy. Further, we contrast the growth rate and the unemployment rate in the deficit scenario with that of the balanced budget scenario. Finally, we compare our results with those obtained in case of flexible wages and full employment.     

Is fiscal policy stationary in China? A regional study by local government

In this study, we apply a stationarity test with a flexible Fourier function proposed by Enders and Lee (2012) to test the stationarity of the deficit–GDP ratio in China. We find that our approximation has a higher power to detect U-shaped breaks and to smooth breaks than the linear method if the true data-generating process of the deficit–GDP ratio convergence is, in fact, a stationary non-linear process. The results show that the stationarity for fiscal policy varies across different regions and that the deficit–GDP ratio of half of the regions is stationary. The results related to the budget structural balance and the fiscal deficit indicate no expansion in the Eastern and Central regions. We find that China's provinces in these two regions meet the stability theory of fiscal policy in the current stage of development. The deficit–GDP ratio is not stationary in the Western and Northeastern regions. These results indicate that the fiscal deficits in these regions are expanding and cannot be controlled by automatic market adjustment, and the government should therefore avoid deficit expansion in favor of a balanced budget policy.     

Human capital formation and public debt: growth and welfare effects of three different deficit policies

We analyze an endogenous growth model public educational spending. We show that the balanced budget policy and the policy with a slight deficit yield higher growth than a debt policy where public debt grows at the same rate as GDP, unless the government is a creditor. As concerns welfare, it can be demonstrated that a strong deficit policy yields lower welfare than a balanced budget and a slight deficit policy, unless initial debt ratios are low and the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is high. Finally, there may exist an inverted U-shaped relation between welfare and deficit-financed educational spending.     

居民消费能力视角下的中国经常账户顺差影响因素协整分析

持续、巨额的经常账户顺差给中国带来了一系列负面影响。彻底扭转中国经常账户失衡,迫在眉睫。文章基于居民消费能力的视角,对中国经常账户问题进行了理论和实证分析。理论研究结果表明,居民消费能力是影响中国经常账户的主要因素;实证研究结果表明,中国经常账户顺差与居民消费能力、投资率、净国外资产比率和人口抚养比存在长期动态均衡关系,其中居民消费能力是影响经常账户的重要因素且与经常账户余额/GDP呈负相关关系。最后文章提出了相关的对策和建议。     

Fiscal policy,government debt,and economic growth in the Kaleckian model of growth and distribution

This article presents the Kaleckian model of growth and distribution that sets a budget deficit ratio as an indicator of fiscal policy and examines the short- and long-run effects of an increase in budget deficits and a rise in income tax rates on the economy. The key short-run outcomes are as follows. First, expanded budget deficits have a positive effect on the rate of capacity utilization. Second, the tax rate for wage income does not affect the rate of capacity utilization, whereas the tax rate for capital income has a favorable impact on it. This result implies that raising the tax rate for capital income can be an important policy instrument for stimulating the economy. Third, we find that the economy exhibits a wage-led aggregate demand in the short run. The main long-run results are as follows. First, the effect of expanded budget deficits on the growth rate is ambiguous, since a higher debt burden negatively influences the rate of capacity utilization and hence economic growth, despite the increase in demand caused by government borrowing. A higher budget deficit ratio thus raises the growth rate only if a certain condition is satisfied. Second, the tax rate for capital income has a positive impact on the growth rate. Third, the economy shows a wage-led growth in the long run.     

Public debt in a basic endogenous growth model

We work out the mechanism that makes public debt affect the allocation of resources in the long-run. To do so we analyze an AK growth model with elastic labor supply and a government sector. The government levies a distortionary income tax and issues bonds to finance lump-sum transfers and non-distortionary public spending. We show that the long-run growth rate is the smaller the higher the debt ratio if the government adjusts public spending to fulfill its inter-temporal budget constraint. If the government adjusts lump-sum transfers the public debt ratio does not affect the balanced growth rate.     

The Measurement of the Utilisation Efficiency of External Debt Funds and Its Influencing Factors

This paper uses stochastic frontier analysis to measure the utilisation efficiency of external debt funds, and identifies what factors actually influence the utilisation efficiency of external debt funds. Measurements show that in both developing and developed countries, the utilisation efficiency of external debt funds shows a downward trend; this downward trend is more obvious in developed countries. Empirical analysis found that the trade deficit rate, the trade openness, the ratio of fiscal revenue to gross domestic product (GDP), and the inflation rate have a significant negative effect on the utilisation efficiency of external debt funds. The ratio of money and quasi money (M2) to GDP, the ratio of the population aged 15–65 to total population, the ratio of industry value‐added to GDP, and the investment growth rate have a significant positive effect on the utilisation efficiency of external debt funds. Furthermore, under the condition of high ratio of the population aged 15–65 to total population, an increase in the ratio of the population aged 15–65 to total population will have a larger effect on improving the utilisation efficiency of external debt funds. Under the condition of high trade deficit rate, an increase in trade deficit rate will have a bigger effect on decreasing the utilisation efficiency of external debt funds.     

Assessing the stochastic stability of public debt: the case of Austria

This paper characterizes the long-run distribution of Austrian public debt using a Markov chain model of the debt-GDP ratio and several key macroeconomic variables. We apply Bayesian techniques to estimate the transition probabilities of the model which allows to incorporate information from other countries. Based on the model, we argue that the historical record of Austrian fiscal policy is consistent with a stable long-run distribution of the debt-GDP ratio with an expected value close to the 60% threshold of the Maastricht treaty. Our results suggests that the strong increase in the debt-GDP ratio in the aftermath of the recent financial crisis should be seen as a transitory tail event rather than as a sign of long-run unsustainability. However, we also show that the existence of a stable long-run distribution depends on a continuing tendency of fiscal policy to “lean against debt” by reducing the primary deficit in face of rising debt. Finally we assess how exogenous shocks to the primary deficit and real GDP growth affect the model-implied distribution.     

关于编制国有资产经营预算的探讨

编制国有资产预算必须遵循支出,市场,数量和对应四个准则,收入方面划分为经营收益,资产转移,信用性,特许权和转移性收入,支出方面划分为资本性,费用性,债务性,转移性和其他支出。其预算平衡应特别注意公共预算结余转入,公共预算专项拨款,国有资产经营预算对社会保障预算的专项拨款和债务等几个问题,改革国家原有预算制度,建立新的国有资产经营预算的目的在于政府一般职能与资产占有,使用,经营职能分开。     

Creative accounting and electoral motives: Evidence from OECD countries

Using an unbalanced panel of 27 OECD countries over the period 1970–2011, I examine whether electoral motives influenced creative accounting. Governments engage in “below-the-line” operations, such as transactions in financial assets, that do not show up in the deficit figures but give rise to changes in debt. I use the difference between the change in public debt and the deficit (stock-flow adjustment) to measure creative accounting. The results suggest that governments strategically engaged in creative accounting before regular elections so as to sugarcoat the budget balance. I also provide an overview of government interventions that gave rise to large stock-flow adjustments.     

Current account deficits and sustainability: Evidence from the OECD countries

Whether or not a current account deficit sustainable has important implications for policy. If the current account deficits of a nation is sustainable, then it implies that the government should have no incentive to default on its international debt. In this article we examine whether or not the current account deficits for the OECD countries can be characterized by a unit root process with regime switching. The econometric methodology allows us to distinguish periods that are associated with unsustainable outcomes from those in which the intertemporal national long-run budget constraint (LRBC) holds. Among the main results, it is found that it is very likely that the LRBC will not hold for the Australia, the Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary, New Zealand, Portugal or Spain, thus signifying a red signal that the current account deficits observed during the period were probably not on a sustainable path.     

Comparative analyses of fiscal sustainability of the budgetary policy rules

We construct a continuous-time overlapping generations model with an endogenous growth structure and consider fiscal sustainability under two fiscal rules: (i) the government fixes the budget deficit-to-GDP ratio and (ii) the government fixes the primary balance-to-GDP ratio. Under the constant budget deficit-to-GDP rule, fiscal sustainability is ensured when the initial public debt-to-GDP and budget deficit-to-GDP ratios are sufficiently small. Under the constant primary balance-to-GDP rule, it is difficult to ensure fiscal sustainability when the primary balance is in deficit or zero. However, fiscal sustainability is ensured when the primary balance is in surplus and the initial government debt-to-GDP ratio is sufficiently small.     

A Note on the (Un)Pleasant Arithmetic of Fiscal Policy: The Case of Italian Public Debt

Using the simple arithmetic of government budget constraint, we perform an illustrative analysis on the Italian case, investigating the consequences on the main public finance aggregates of the adoption of a fiscal policy rule responding to past real debt/GDP ratio. Such a rule, firmly grounded in the economic analysis, would allow the reduction of Italy's outstanding stock of debt without requiring the strict adherence to the 3 per cent criterion for deficit/GDP ratio, as prescribed by SGP (Stability and Growth Pact). We perform a forecasting exercise under five alternative scenarios and analyse the details of a structural debt reduction strategy with alternative yearly step.     

The Tax‐smoothing Hypothesis: Evidence from Sweden, 1952–1999

This paper tests Barro's (1979) tax‐smoothing hypothesis using Swedish central government data for the period 1952–1999. According to the tax‐smoothing hypothesis, the government sets the budget surplus equal to expected changes in government expenditure. When expenditure is expected to increase, the government runs a budget surplus, and when expenditure is expected to fall, the government runs a budget deficit. The empirical evidence suggests that the model provides a useful benchmark and that tax‐smoothing behavior can explain about 60 percent of the variability in the Swedish central government budget surplus.     

Long-run equilibrium between budget deficits and long-term interest rates

Recently, there has been much concern about the size of federal budget deficit and its impact on interest rates. The peace time recovery after the 1981–1982 recession was the longest in U.S. history, accompanied by the largest budget deficit to GDP ratios. The present study investigates the effects of cyclically-adjusted federal deficits on long-term interest rates for 1970:1–1991:2. Using Johansen-Juselius procedures, we find evidence of a long-run relationship between federal budget deficits and long-term interest rates.