The history of happiness

In the 18th century, the Enlightenment ushered in the notion that happiness was the attainment of a worthy life. Since then the pursuit of happiness has spread to every aspect of behavior, from religion and politics to work and parenting. Today the happiness imperative creates pressures that, paradoxically, can make us miserable. Sadness is often mistaken for a pathology. Understanding the cultural commitment to good cheer as an artifact of modern history, not as an inherent feature of the human condition, opens new opportunities for understanding key facets of our social and personal experience.     

试析亚里士多德的德性幸福论

古往今来许多哲人岛学说都涉及过幸福问题,但其中最具有智慧和影响力的要数古希腊思想家亚里士多德的幸福论。亚里士多德认为至善是幸福,幸福是灵魂合与德性的实现活动,只有具备一定德性的人才能够获得幸福。     

CEO happiness and forecasting

We utilize the IBM Watson Tone Analyzer to measure chief executive officers' (CEOs') levels of joy (happiness) in year-end conference calls, and empirically test how CEOs' happiness affects the properties of their own and analysts' forecasts. We find that joyful CEOs are more likely to issue forecasts, less likely to miss their forecast targets, and exhibit lower optimistic bias in their forecasts. When joyful CEOs issue earnings forecasts, analysts revise their forecasts upwards and produce forecasts that are less dispersed and more accurate. Our results demonstrate that inherent CEO happiness significantly impacts the forecast properties of both managers and analysts, thus supporting upper echelons theory.     

The future of politics

Humankind is undergoing subtle but vast transformations, from the impact of globalization to the pull of local comforts, from the movement toward regional organizations to the demands of transnational groups, from the ever more powerful consequences of microelectronic technologies to the ever deepening bonds of interdependence. These changes can fairly be described as the emergence of a new epoch marked by altered global structures and driven by a skill revolution, an organizational explosion, and a continuous flow of ideas, money, goods, and people that is rendering long-standing territorial boundaries increasingly obsolete and fostering an extensive decentralization of authority. The future of politics is thus conceived to be pervaded by contradictions, ambiguities, and uncertainties.     

The future of religions

The global future of religions is considered in the context of ‘worldviews’ which, unlike traditional Western beliefs, combine religious and secular belief systems into a dynamic functioning whole. Seven world blocs relating to seven worldviews are identified: the ‘democratic West’ (with a largely Christian background); the Euro—Asian Marxist bloc; the Islamic crescent from Indonesia to North Africa; the non-Marxist, non-Islamic cultures of old Asia; Latin America; Black Africa south of the Sahara; and the smaller countries of the Pacific. The dual forces of individualism and nationalism will have the largest impact on the future development and interactions of religions. The most powerful changes politically will be the convergence of the interests of Christianity and Western humanism on the one hand, and Buddhism and other religions on the other. The ecumenical North—South character emerging in Christianity will make the churches more critical of the present economic system, ‘privatized’ religion will appear in the Marxist countries, hardline Judaism will intensify in the USA (despite developments in Israel) and the friction between radical Hindu and Islamic values will increase (especially in India) and could be a major factor in warfare over the next 30 years.     

The future of fintech

This article describes the growing field of financial technology (fintech) and the different financial paradigms and technologies that support it. Fintech is primarily a disintermediation force where disruptive technologies are the drivers. This framework discusses 10 primary areas in fintech comprising a taxonomy, which categorizes research in the field and also proposes a pedagogical structure. Pitfalls of fintech are also analyzed. Overall, the great strides made in computing technology, mathematics, statistics, psychology, econometrics, linguistics, cryptography, big data, and computer interfaces have combined to create an explosion of fintechs.     

The future of morality

Moral criticism of human institutions is frequent : the acceptance of social constraints by the free individual is rare. This moral inversion is inconsistent with the survival of an increasingly interdependent society. Statements of human rights must be replaced by statements of human responsibility if we are to make the world viable.     

The Museums' future

‘The Museums' Future’ argues that through the effects of the postmodernisation of museums, art has been ceded variously to culture, commerce, politics, values and to experience. In this scenario, political culture has surrendered to cultural politics.It asks whether a museum project of the future can be envisaged in which history and experience are not replaced entirely by spectacle, and memory is not banalized? Can the museum contribute to reconfigurations of the Subject and Other and to identity and difference without falling into the traps of a politics of identity? Can the museum find ways of reaffirming universal principles without running the risk of imposing a new order dominated by a single culture?     

The future quantified

The results reported in this paper demonstrate that the qualitative (group) research and quantitative (individual) survey techniques that have been developed now offer a viable means for mapping current expectations and the possible future directions these will take. Sensible use of these should provide governments, and large organisations in general, with a powerful new set of tools for positively managing the future. In terms of the issues themselves, the group which emerged most strongly from the quantified responses of the individuals are those which might be seen as relating to the ‘green' environment. On the other hand, our qualitative groups looked upon these key issues as representing matters of survival for humanity as a whole. Such a focus on survival may seem selfish, but it can also be seen as altruistic not concerned with personal survival. It also represents a sound, rational approach to long-term planning, where the respondents focused instead on how governments might positively, and safely, manage all the long-term issues threatening the future of humankind. If we move away from ‘green' issues, it is also clear that even individuals recognize the globalisation of issues in particular the globalisation of business, the possibility of a global financial crash and the (threat of) domination by Pacific Rim countries. At the opposite end of the spectrum are worries about the significant problems faced by the underclasses—and, in turn, the significant threat these present to society as a whole. In general though, apart from technological issues, the emphasis was—across almost all areas—on survival in the face of events ranging down from catastrophes to mere crises and stresses!     

温州商行的苦乐历程——访温州市商业银行行长邢增福

创新与科学管理让一家“落后银行”完成质的蜕变。一个“意外”2006年底,本刊为评选“2006年中国十佳城市商业银行”面向全国城商行发放了调查问卷,在对回收的问卷进行分析中,温州商行在2006年一系列经营数据反映出的优良表现引起了本刊的格外关注。这个“格外”来自于其在2006年取得的丰     

Unix终端还能走多远?

今天,当桌面计算已经进入了一个图形化的视窗时代后,曾经最早进入信息化的Unix终端行业用户,依然在使用着纯粹的Unix终端。当行业应用对终端产品提出更多新的需求,传统的Unix终端显然已经不能适应应用需求的快速延伸与扩展,我们不禁质疑:传统Unix终端还能走多远?2003年5月,国内图形终端的领导者升腾资讯公司,以“终结Unix终端时代”的鲜明旗帜,发布数十款升腾终端产品,以完善、成熟的“一台清”行业桌面应用方案,打响了一场全面替换传统Unix终端的产业升级革命。行业应用深刻变化提出“一台清”终端需求回顾终端发展历史,具有相对简单的…     

The future of social security

We analyze the effect of the projected demographic transition on the political support for social security, and equilibrium outcomes. Embedding a probabilistic-voting setup of electoral competition in the standard OLG model with capital accumulation, we find that intergenerational transfers arise in the absence of altruism, commitment, or trigger strategies. Closed-form solutions predict population ageing to lead to higher social security tax rates, a rising share of pensions in GDP, but eventually lower social security benefits per retiree. The response of equilibrium tax rates to demographic shocks reduces old-age consumption risk. Calibrated to match features of the U.S. economy, the model suggests that, in response to the projected demographic transition, social security tax rates will gradually increase to 16%. Other policies that distort labor supply will become less important; labor supply therefore will rise, in contrast with frequently voiced fears.     

贸易信用的未来

18个月前,使用贸易信用保险的公司还很少,他们中的大多数甚至还不了解贸易信用保险的真正价值所在。贸易信用保险是帮助贸易商规避坏账风险的工具。你不能指望一个评级机构会为其评级的差错提供赔偿。     

伊斯兰金融的未来

回顾伊斯兰金融的发展历程,从1963年成立首家伊斯兰银行,到2007年伊斯兰金融资产达到3000亿美元,伊斯兰金融发展迅速。文章通过实例剖析了伊斯兰债券与资产支持证券的异同,并从伊斯兰债券的金融本质入手,从宏观的角度展开对伊斯兰金融的未来前景的探讨,指出伊斯兰金融是传统伊斯兰融资体系适应全球化经济下的一种新模式探索,并期待着伊斯兰现代主义能够更好地促进伊斯兰金融的发展和成熟,使伊斯兰社会更好地融合到全球化的经济发展中。     

The future of the elderly

Between now and the 1990s the population of most Western European countries will, on present fertility and mortality rates, show little increase. However, the proportion aged 65 or more will increase; this will be almost entirely due to the 20–25% increase in the numbers aged 75 or more. At the same time there will be pressure to lower the retirement age so as to avoid unemployment among the young. Schemes to encourage early retirement have had little success; without considerable economic growth the conflict between the interests of the elderly and the young will inevitably become more acute.     

The forfeit of the future

Throughout history, perceptions and experiences in the present have shaped different images of the future. Today, we are living in an increasingly complex world, one which has brought as much consternation as hope. Technology-aided exploitation of the natural environment has made us fearful of irreversible damage to the ecosystem, generating bleak predictions for human survival. As the pace of economic, political, and social change increases, confounding the process of prediction, how do such changes shape our present visions of the future, and how do they contrast with those of previous eras? This article shows how optimistic and pessimistic images of the future evolved from presumptions of unchanging order and apocalyptic destinies to techologically inspired Utopian visions, and how such images now reflect our present anxieties.     

The future of human consciousness

It is remarkable that few serious thinkers have speculated in public about the possible future forms that our species might take. A few Western philosophers and scientists—Nietzsche, ¹ Teilhard de Chardin ² and Yoneji Masuda ³—have touched on the next stage of evolution. In the East, others such as Sri Aurobindo ⁴ have interpreted contemporary transformations of society and culture as a cyclical manifestation of the upward spiral of human consciousness. The only genre of literature that seems to touch systematically on this matter has been science fiction—a professionally safe genre. There is no certainty of prediction required, only speculation about potentialities and possibilities—alternative futures and future alternatives. This article outlines a structural view that anticipates what may result from the complexification and reorganization of human consciousness.