甘肃省经济发展态势分析——基于时序主成分分析

本文利用时序主成分分析法,对甘肃的经济发展态势进行了分析,时序全局主成分分析的方法是时序分析和全局主成分分析方法的结合,从文中的实证部分来看,时序主成分分析法得到的分析结果与甘肃省的现实经济状况相吻合.     

基于主成分分析的经济发展水平综合评价

衡量一个国家的经济发展程度,要从其社会生产的各个方面去考察,要看各项生产能力的综合效果。为了客观、科学地分析我国的经济发展状况,首次把居民消费价格指数和商品零售价格指数引入评价指标体系中,提出一种新的社会发展水平综合指标体系,并通过SPSS分析软件进行上机计算,应用主成分分析方法对我国31个省、直辖市、自治区(不包括香港、澳门和台湾)的经济发展水平进行综合分析和评价,突出了各大省市经济发展进程的特点和优势,以期为我国实现均衡发展提供理论依据。     

基于主成分分析的黑龙江省农业技术经济效益分析

采用主成分分析法,建立了黑龙江省各县市和全国部分地区生态农业和农业可持续发展的技术经济综合评价的线性模型。利用该模型计算了黑龙江省62个县市和全国部分地区的农业技术经济发展水平,并与其它地区的水平进行了比较。结果表明:黑龙江省的农业技术经济发展水平在全国处于中等水平,为评判黑龙江省的农业技术经济现状提供了理论依据。     

基于主成分分析法的皖北六市经济发展水平评价

近年来主成分分析在多指标评价上得到越来越广泛的应用,因为这种方法能消除样本指标之间的相关性,通过提取少量具有代表性的主成分来反映样本的主要信息。皖北六个城市的经济发展问题一直困扰着安徽省,文章利用皖北六个城市2011年的12个经济数据构建成经济发展水平评价体系,对这六个城市经济发展现状给出了综合评价,并提出相关建议。     

基于时序全局主成分分析的江西省地级市中医药医疗服务能力比较

目的 科学客观评价江西省地级市中医药医疗服务能力水平。方法 主要运用时序全局主成分分析法,开展江西省地级市中医药医疗服务能力比较研究。结果 2015—2018年,江西省各地级市中医药服务能力波动上升：3个地级市中医药服务能力得分一直保持正向增长,其他8个地级市至少一年有负增长,但最终得分均保持正增长;排名基本保持不变：南昌等4个地级市中医药医疗服务能力排名一直稳定,其他排名变化均不超过1位;最终得分差异较大：排名第一的南昌,综合得分最低为1.71,而排名最低的新余市,最高得分仅为-1.54。结论 各级政府的重视和投入直接提升了中医药服务能力,区域卫生规划的制度刚性决定了各地级市能力排名稳定性,资源配置不均导致各地级市能力差异较大。应进一步加大中医药投入,优化中医药发展规划,统筹全省中医药资源配置。     

湖南省城市公用事业供给现状评价——基于主成分分析

城市公用事业是城市经济和社会发展的主要载体.本文运用主成分分析法,选取能充分反应城市公用事业供给情况的12个指标,对湖南省13个地级市2007年的统计数据进行了分析,对各城市公用事业供给情况进行了评价.     

基于主成分-可变模糊分析的省区低碳经济评价体系探索

可变模糊集理论综合评价中,针对各指标之间信息重叠和指标权重主观设定的问题,应用主成分分析求解相应指标的权重,同时降低可变模糊综合评价的维度。文章综合评价了云南2005~2009年低碳经济发展现状,结果相对于仅可变模糊集理论评价结果更接近实际,主成分-可变模糊分析为区域低碳经济发展状况综合评价提供了一种可行的方法。     

基于稀疏主成分的房地产市场发展分析——以北京为例

采用稀疏主成分分析,对房地产市场发展的综合评价进行了探讨,并且以北京市房地产发展为例进行了分析.研究结果表明:(1)相比于主成分分析,稀疏主成分分析法更适合进行房地产市场综合评价.(2)基于该方法得到的结果基本符合市场的实际情况,更利于宏观调控,以保证房地产市场的健康有序发展.     

基于稀疏主成分的房地产市场发展分析——以北京为例

采用稀疏主成分分析,对房地产市场发展的综合评价进行了探讨,并且以北京市房地产发展为例进行了分析。研究结果表明:(1)相比于主成分分析,稀疏主成分分析法更适合进行房地产市场综合评价。(2)基于该方法得到的结果基本符合市场的实际情况,更利于宏观调控,以保证房地产市场的健康有序发展。     

主成分分析在综合评价中的应用

应用主成分分析原理,以较小的综合变量取代原有的多维变量,并且能客观的确定权数,避免主观随意性。把原指标综合成几个主成分,再以这几个主成分的贡献率为权数构成加权平均,构造出一个综合评价函数。给出了多指标复杂系统的排序方法,它排除了各指标间的相关性和量纲的不一致性,使系统信息不重叠,得到的排序结果合理可信。     

Contribution of international ecotourism to comprehensive economic development and convergence in the Central American and Caribbean region

Drawing on the positive experience from Costa Rica, the study examines whether international ecotourism makes a significant contribution to comprehensive economic development for the Central American and Caribbean region and contributes to comprehensive economic convergence. Following a standard empirical growth model, a dynamic panel regression model is estimated using time-series data from 1995 until 2012 for a cross section of seven countries. The interaction of international tourism and various established sustainability indicators is employed allowing ecotourism to be consistently quantified across countries, while numerous country-specific structural characteristics are controlled for. The estimation results show that international ecotourism has a statistically significant positive effect on both traditional economic development (real GDP per capita) and comprehensive economic development (adjusted net savings; ANS per capita), which is a measure of a society’s potential future well-being, thus providing evidence in support of the tourism-led growth hypothesis and pointing towards an important role for ecotourism in driving comprehensive economic convergence.     

Does too much government spending depress the economic development of transition economies? Evidences from dynamic panel threshold analysis

This paper investigates the relationship between government size and economic growth and determines the optimal level of government spending to maximize economic growth. The paper applies a dynamic panel data analysis based upon a threshold model to test the threshold effect of government spending in 26 transition economies over the period spanning 1993–2016. According to the analysis results, government expenditures have a threshold effect on economic growth, and there is a non-linear relationship depicted as an Armey curve in these transition economies. The findings indicate that a government size above the threshold government spending level adversely affects economic growth, while a government size below the threshold level has a positive effect. Furthermore, there is a statistically significant relationship between the two variables above and below that optimal level, even if we divide the sample into developed and developing countries. Our findings suggest that governments in transition economies should consider optimal government size at around the estimated threshold level to support sustainable economic growth.     

Forecasting nonlinear economic time series: A simple test to accompany the nearest neighbor approach

This paper is based on a recent nonparametric forecasting approach by Sugihara, Grenfell and May (1990) to improve the short term prediction of nonlinear chaotic processes. The idea underlying their forecasting algorithm is as follows: For a nonlinear low-dimensional process, a state space reconstruction of the observed time series exhibits spatial correlation, which can be exploited to improveshort term forecasts by means of locally linear approximations. Still, the important question of evaluating the forecast perfomance is very much an open one, if the researcher is confronted with data that are additionally disturbed by stochastic noise. To account for this problem, a simple nonparametric test to accompany the algorithm is suggested here. To demonstrate its practical use, the methodology is applied to observed price series from commodity markets. It can be shown that the short term predictability of the best fitting linear model can be improved upon significantly by this method.     

基于时间序列的BP神经网络预测鄂尔多斯市的GDP

国内生产总值(GDP)是制定经济发展战略、规划、年度计划以及各种宏观经济政策的重要依据,研究GDP预测方法具有重要的现实意义。在对鄂尔多斯市GDP数据序列分析的基础上,考虑到BP神经网络可以通过简单非线性函数的复合能够实现对于复杂函数的映射,本文采用BP神经网络方法来预测鄂尔多斯市的GDP,取得了较好的预测效果。     

The role of industrial policy in the economic development of Uzbekistan

This paper discusses the role of industrial policy in the economic development of Uzbekistan, which took a gradualist approach in transition and continued to record rapid economic growth from the early 2000s. It stopped depending on cotton monoculture and was able to achieve self-sufficiency in grain. It transformed itself from a net fuel importer to an exporter. The government promoted the manufacturing sector, focusing on the heavy industries, such as the automotive and chemical industries. Industrial restructuring in Uzbekistan has been supported by the industrial policy. The government has taken several industrial policy measures, including tax and financial incentives, state orders, policy selectively welcoming foreign direct investment, import protection and export promotion, and exchange-rate management. This paper provides policy implications for the other developing and transition economies pursuing economic development and considers the appropriate role of the government.     

An empirical analysis of the relationship between economic development and population growth in China

China has experienced a dramatic demographic transition since the latter half of the twentieth century, and thus, assessing the global economic implications is an important issue. This article uses time-series data on China to estimate the determinants of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. According to the results of the presented co-integration analysis, population has a significantly negative impact on GDP per capita, while savings rate, total factor productivity and degree of industrialization have significantly positive impacts on GDP per capita. These results suggest that the share of the working-age population relative to the total population does not have a strong influence on GDP per capita. Therefore, the contribution of the working-age population to economic growth might not be as large as previously assumed. It is also possible that an increase in savings, remarkable industrialization and rapid technological progress have all stimulated economic growth in China greatly.     

A grey dynamic model for the evaluation of regional sustainable development and its emoirical study

Currently,traditional development issues,such as economic stagnation,as well as new challenges like environmental degradation and globalization,need attention.Sustainable development,including economic,environmental,and social elements,is a main goal of decision-makers.The key to sustainable decision-making is to evaluate and forecast the status quo of sustainable development.Policy makers need a tool based on scientific information to forecast the effects of future actions on sustainability and make policies for sustainable development.This paper analyzes the relation of the economy,environment and social welfare by the grey dynamic model.The proposed method use time series and basic indicators of ecological system,including economic,environmental and social sub-systems.It is applied to Heilongfiang Province and Jiangsu Province.The results have proved different status quo of sustainable development in these two regions,and suggestions are proposed,such as optimization of industrial structure and eco-industrial development.The conclusion is that there is no unique sustainable path,and accordingly,policy makers shouM choose different criteria and strategies to make efficient sustainable decisions for each region.     

A grey dynamic model for the evaluation of regional sustainable development and its empirical study

Currently, traditional development issues, such as economic stagnation, as well as new challenges like environmental degradation and globalization, need attention. Sustainable development, including economic, environmental, and social elements, is a main goal of decision-makers. The key to sustainable decision-making is to evaluate and forecast the status quo of sustainable development. Policy makers need a tool based on scientific information to forecast the effects of future actions on sustainability and make policies for sustainable development. This paper analyzes the relation of the economy, environment and social welfare by the grey dynamic model. The proposed method uses time series and basic indicators of ecological system, including economic, environmental and social sub-systems. It is applied to Heilongjiang Province and Jiangsu Province. The results have proved different status quo of sustainable development in these two regions, and suggestions are proposed, such as optimization of industrial structure and eco-industrial development. The conclusion is that there is no unique sustainable path, and accordingly, policy makers should choose different criteria and strategies to make efficient sustainable decisions for each region.