商业银行设置海外机构的国家风险测定及防御

我国商业银行到海外去设置经营机构是我国商业银行开展国际化经营的重要策略。然而,我们也应看到,在海外设置分支机构比在国内要拥有更大的风险,一个国家一旦面临战争、内乱和其他政治经济风暴就可能使这些海外分支机构遭受灭顶之灾,从而给我国商业银行带来重大损失。随着我国金融体制改革的不断深入和各商业银行国际化经营的逐步开展,我们认为认真研究一下设置海外金融机构的风险问题是有一定现实意义的。     

刍议中资商业银行对海外分行的合规督导

随着国内企业海外业务拓展的加速,中资商业银行纷纷在海外设立分支机构,但海外监管环境与国内存在较大差异,政策风险和合规风险较高,如何加强中资商业银行对其海外分支机构的合规经营的督导管理,必须引起高度重视。本文分析中资银行海外布局情况,剖析海外分行面临的监管环境与政策风险,对中资银行海外分行的合规管理提出督导建议。     

信息科技促进商业银行国际化进程

当前，我国金融业迎来一个海外投资的黄金时代，各家商业银行海外分支机构纷纷设立，跨境并购层出叠现，中国银行业正在大步走向国际市场。在商业银行国际化进程中，要求“科技先行”，建立与当地业务发展相适应的信息系统。然而，由于境外业务的复杂性和多样性，海外分支机构信息化面临着一系列新的挑战，对各行信息科技部门提出了一个新的课题。     

商业银行的国家风险评级与管理

自亚洲金融危机以来，国家风险对商业银行安全性的影响日益显现。中国加入WTO后，经济开放度迅速提高，大批跨国公司涌入国内市场，同时，我国商业银行海外分支机构不断增加，使得各项业务活动中越来越多地涉及国家风险管理，这对现有风险监控体系和分析工具提出更高要求。     

商业银行境外经营会计核算及报表编制研究

近年来，我国大型商业银行纷纷以打造全球化金融集团为目标，积极稳妥地推进境外经营战略，逐渐形成了海内外业务一体化发展的新格局。商业银行国际化经营主要依托以下几种方式实现，分别是增设海外分支机构、自主申设或并购设立海外子公司、作为战略投资者参股海外金融机构等。     

商业银行分支机构利率风险控制研究

我国利率市场化改革和国内利率调整频率的进一步加快,客观上已经对商业银行的净利息收入、经济价值产生了重要影响.然而,这些影响并没有引起商业银行及其分支机构的足够重视,现阶段国内商业银行及其分支机构对利率风险的识别、计量、防范和控制能力还相当脆弱.笔者在深入分析研究后认为,国内商业银行及其分支机构必须在充分认识利率风险的基础上,尽快采取诸如建立健全利率风险的管理流程、利率风险的工作机制,以及采取灵活的经营策略和技巧等一系列措施,力争将利率风险时商业银行的危害降至最低程度.     

商业银行分支机构利率风险控制研究

我国利率市场化改革和国内利率调整频率的进一步加快，客观上已经对商业银行的净利息收入、经济价值产生了重要影响。然而，这些影响并没有引起商业银行及其分支机构的足够重视，现阶段国内商业银行及其分支机构对利率风险的识别、计量、防范和控制能力还相当脆弱。笔者在深入分析研究后认为，国内商业银行及其分支机构必须在充分认识利率风险的基础上，尽快采取诸如建立健全利率风险的管理流程、利率风险的工作机制，以及采取灵活的经营策略和技巧等一系列措施，力争将利率风险对商业银行的危害降至最低程度。     

基于人民币国际化视角的银行卡发展策略

近年来,我国加快了人民币国际化的步伐,包括推出跨境贸易投资人民币结算、在境外设立人民币离岸市场、与其他国家和地区的央行签订货币互换协议等。随着人民币国际化进程的加快,我国商业银行也加大了拓展海外市场的步伐,纷纷在国外设立分支机构,发行国际通用的银行卡,完善海外受理环境,扩大银行卡的使用范围。     

境内外联动:中资银行全球化过程的必选战略

随着全球经济一体化的不断深入,我国商业银行在海外布局的步伐逐日加速,全球经营战略的地位日益提升。在商业银行"走出去"的过程中,为了充分利用境内外两个市场、两种资源,商业银行的境内外分支机构必须通过联动来强化整体竞争力,本文就我国商业银行境内外联动的模式和存在的问题进行了研究,并就如何更好实施境内外联动提出了相关建议。     

商业银行海外并购的行为分析

第二次世界大战以后,经济全球化开始蓬勃发展起来,这其中,以资本流动全球化,金融市场一体化和金融机构的全球扩张为特征的金融全球化,成为全球化进程中的主导趋势.在这样的趋势下,商业银行跨国经营不断涌现.商业银行跨国经营是商业银行参与全球经济一体化的前提,也是参与世界一体化竞争的必然结果.商业银行的跨国经营主要通过两种形式:一是直接在东道国设立分支机构,二是通过并购当地的银行实现业务扩张,其中,以海外并购的方式进入当地市场是国际银行业海外扩张最有效、最快捷的方式.这是因为,与直接设立分支机构相比,海外并购作为一条方便快捷的持续扩张路径具备以下优势.     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.