Objective measures as a predictor of late payments by high‐risk borrowers

Manufactured homes (also known outside the US as prefabricated homes) are a viable housing option for low‐income buyers, but traditional mortgages are not available for purchase of manufactured homes because of a perception of higher risk of default among purchasers of manufactured homes. Research suggests that creditscoring models which incorporate objective data such as income, debt‐to‐income ratio and credit history result in an accurate and objective predictive tool to estimate likelihood of late payments and default among traditional home buyers. This study showed that these same models can be applied similarly to purchasers of manufactured homes. A Tobit model was developed to evaluate which factors most accurately predict default and late payment behaviour among borrowers who purchased a manufactured home. The model showed that when decomposed into the probability of making a late payment and number of late payments, credit score and income are both significant predictors in both sets of borrowers of both the probability of making a late payment and the number of late payments. The higher the credit score, the less likely the borrower is to make a late payment.     

A hybrid information approach to predict corporate credit risk

This study proposes a hybrid information approach to predict corporate credit risk. In contrast to the previous literature that debates which credit risk model is the best, we pool information from a diverse set of structural and reduced‐form models to produce a model combination based on credit risk prediction. Compared with each single model, the pooled strategies yield consistently lower average risk prediction errors over time. We also find that while the reduced‐form models contribute more in the pooled strategies for speculative‐grade names and longer maturities, the structural models have higher weights for shorter maturities and investment grade names.     

ARBITRAGE AND INFORMATION IN A SEQUENTIAL ECONOMY WITH MANY CREDIT AGENCIES

This paper augments the theoretical foundations of organized commodity futures markets and uncovers singular facts about arbitrage and the role of information. Using the term "credit agency" to embrace organized futures markets such as the Chicago Board of Trade as well as independent brokerage houses, we extend the extant theory of temporary equilibrium for an economy with a single credit agency to economies with many credit agencies. In the process, we find that arbitrage with no risk of bankruptcy and with perfect interagency trade information can be incompatible with equilibrium (exact or approximate). On the other hand, the usual regularity assumptions are sufficient for the existence of at least an approximate equilibrium, provided that interagency trade information is imperfect (or risky). However, such imperfect information limits arbitrage so different agencies can have different prices.     

Vulnerable options,risky corporate bond,and credit spread

In the current literature, the focus of credit‐risk analysis has been either on the valuation of risky corporate bond and credit spread or on the valuation of vulnerable options, but never both in the same context. There are two main concerns with existing studies. First, corporate bonds and credit spreads are generally analyzed in a context where corporate debt is the only liability of the firm and a firm’s value follows a continuous stochastic process. This setup implies a zero short‐term spread, which is strongly rejected by empirical observations. The failure of generating non‐zero short‐term credit spreads may be attributed to the simplified assumption on corporate liabilities. Because a corporation generally has more than one type of liability, modeling multiple liabilities may help to incorporate discontinuity in a firm’s value and thereby lead to realistic credit term structures. Second, vulnerable options are generally valued under the assumption that a firm can fully pay off the option if the firm’s value is above the default barrier at the option’s maturity. Such an assumption is not realistic because a corporation can find itself in a solvent position at option’s maturity but with assets insufficient to pay off the option. The main contribution of this study is to address these concerns. The proposed framework extends the existing equity‐bond capital structure to an equity‐bond‐derivative setting and encompasses many existing models as special cases. The firm under study has two types of liabilities: a corporate bond and a short position in a call option. The risky corporate bond, credit spreads, and vulnerable options are analyzed and compared with their counterparts from previous models. Numerical results show that adding a derivative type of liability can lead to positive short‐term credit spreads and various shapes of credit‐spread term structures that were not possible in previous models. In addition, we found that vulnerable options need not always be worth less than their default‐free counterparts. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:301–327, 2001     

An Empirical Investigation of Trade Credit Demand

This paper investigates the motivations for a firm's demand for trade credit. Demand for credit is modelled as a function of transaction costs motivations, financing motivations, operational considerations, seller compliance issues and supplier marketing, whilst controlling for the firm's business environment and for firm characteristics such as size and industry. This paper builds on previous studies by considering a wider range of factors that can affect trade credit demand holistically on a single sample. It appears that the use of trade credit is widespread, and that it is generally perceived as an important short term financing option, although the availability of trade credit is not a major influence on supplier choice. The level of a firm's trade credit demand is found to be significantly influenced by transaction costs, financing, operational issues, marketing activities by suppliers, the firm's investment in trade debtors and firm size.     

The impact of international diversification on credit scores: Evidence from the UK

Despite the great deal of previous research into international diversification, we know little about the impact of international diversification on firms’ credit scores. Drawing upon the resource-based view and transaction cost economics, we examine the relationship between international diversification and credit scores by using a large sample of 6,557 UK firms between 2016 and 2017. We find an inverted U-shaped relationship between international diversification and firms’ credit scores, indicating that the effect of international diversification on credit scores is initially positive but becomes negative with over-diversification. In addition, we find that R&D intensity positively moderates the relationship between international diversification and credit score, implying that the credit scores of highly diversified firms improve as they increase their investment in R&D. Further analysis suggests that a firm’s credit score becomes less dependent on international diversification for large firms, firms in concentrated industries, firms in the manufacturing sector, and firms distant from key metropolitan areas, such as London.     

The Effect of Timeliness and Credit Ratings on the Information Content of Earnings Announcements

This paper investigates the impact of timeliness and credit ratings on the information content of the earnings announcements of Greek listed firms from 2001 to 2008. Using the classical event study methodology and regression analysis, we find that firms tend to release good news on time and are inclined to delay the release of bad news. We also provide evidence that the level of corporate risk differentiates the information content of earnings according to the credit rating category. Specifically, firms displaying high creditworthiness enjoy positive excess returns on earnings announcement dates. In contrast, firms with low creditworthiness undergo significant share price erosions on earnings announcement days. We also observe a substitution effect between timeliness and credit ratings in relation to the information content of earnings announcements. Specifically, we find that as the credit category of earnings-announcing firms improves, the informational role of timeliness is mitigated.     

会计信息的数据挖掘方法与银行信贷风险预测

基于信息熵理论和数据挖掘技术,文章提出一种会计信息的数据挖掘方法,投资者和债权人可用这种方法从企业的会计数据中挖掘出决策有用信息.本文以银行信贷风险预测模型构建为例,对这种方法的有效性进行了实证检验.     

Credit Indebtedness and the UK Retail Trade

Prior to the end of 1989, most sectors of the UK retail trade had for some time been benefiting from a boom in sales. Many reasons may be forwarded to explain the high level of sales that had devéloped. This paper focuses attention on the greatly increased levels of consumer credit indebtedness associated with high retail sales. Examination is made of the possibility that a fundamental change in UK patterns of saving and spending has taken place. It is suggested that the retail trade must pay attention to the implications of rising credit and of any restrictions on consumer credit that may be introduced at some future date.     

出口信用保险影响下的出口贸易高质量发展研究——以浙江省为例

在中美贸易摩擦日渐加剧的背景下,出口信用保险成为出口企业重要的避险工具,在出口企业转嫁出口风险、提高风控水平、补偿企业损失、优化资源配置等多方面发挥重要作用。文章采用2003-2016年浙江省出口贸易数据及保险数据（均不含宁波）,通过统计分析、构建理论模型及实证检验,试图进一步明确出口信用保险影响出口贸易的作用机制。研究结果表明：在出口信用保险计划下,国际信用评级的存在、投保概率的增加、对出口企业损失的赔偿均可增加浙江省企业的货款回收概率,从而优化出口资源配置、提高出口水平。实证检验证明了以上结论,并发现在面临金融危机时,浙江省出口信用保险对出口的促进作用尤为显著,随着金融危机影响的逐步减小,其作用依然显著。     

信用证单证审核环节受益人所面临的风险与对策

随着国际贸易的不断发展,国际贸易结算方式也呈现出多元化的趋势。信用证作为传统结算方式的一种,依然在其中占有一席之地。但是由于信用证结算方式本身存在制度上的缺陷,使得受益人在很多情况下并不能安全、快速地收回货款。受益人应在交易前期做好资信调查及目标市场调研,设置完善、协调的交易合同条款,及时催开信用证,做好备货与装运、审证和改证工作,及时交单,以规避风险。     

A replication study of the credit card effect on spending behavior and an extension to mobile payments

Prior research has shown that credit cards increase spending behavior as measured by the willingness to pay (WTP) or basket value. This research aims to replicate the credit card effect and to extend this effect to mobile payments. In four empirical studies, of which three online studies and one lab study (total n = 692), we manipulated payment methods (i.e., cash, credit cards, and mobile payments) and measured spending behavior (i.e., WTP and basket value). Across four studies, we did not replicate the credit card effect on either measure of spending behavior, suggesting the effect in the literature may be inflated or may have been fading away. A meta-analysis of the relevant literature revealed the expected credit card effect but also showed that the credit card effect has become weaker through the years and that this effect is contingent on the location of data collection. We also did not find evidence that the credit card effect extends to mobile payments on either measure of spending behavior in the three online studies. However, we found a significant difference between mobile payments and cash on the basket value measure (but not for the WTP measure) in the lab study. This paper also explored whether the pain of payment or payment convenience may be a mechanism underlying the relationship between payment methods and spending behavior. Although the pain of payment tended to be lower and the payment convenience tended to be higher for mobile payments, these effects did not translate into more spending behaviors.     

商品贸易中的赊欠交易研究

从商品贸易中的赊欠交易特征入手,分析赊欠交易存在的基础及制度保障,并就国际贸易中赊欠交易双方博弈及利弊进行分析,指出在现代市场经济条件下从事赊欠交易所具有的信用风险,提出了信用风险的防范及分散措施。     

Information Economics of Asian Bond Markets: A Comparative Analysis of Credit Agencies

ABSTRACT

This paper examines financial data and credit ratings of corporate bond issuers in East Asia. The empirical results suggest that the U.S.-based credit agency principally monitors issuers' creditworthiness as a determinant of corporate bond ratings. In contrast, local agencies focus on profitability and firm size. We consider that the similarities and differences in determinants originate from the following: (1) the business experience of agencies; and (2) the degree of development of each individual market.     

Does scoring a subpopulation make a difference

Scorecards used by consumer credit providers to assess the probability that an applicant will default are usually built for the population of potential applicants as a whole. This paper investigates whether it is permissible and worth-while to build a separate scorecard for each subpopulation of applicants. We review the legal requirements to find that it is permissible to use separate scorecards for many, but not all, personal characteristics. Second, using data supplied by a credit card organization separate scorecards were built for several subpopulations for each of twelve personal characteristics. The predicted performance of each was compared with that gained form estimating a scorecard for the full population using three methods for setting the cut-off scores in an `independent' way. These methods differ in the degree to which the cut-off scores are independent of information about other subpopulation, in the level of discrimination achieved between likely good payers and defaulters and in the degree to which each method is robust to new data. We conclude, first, that creating scorecards using subpopulations does not necessarily give better discrimination between likely good payers and defaulters. Second, none of the three methods examined to set the cut-off scores dominates the others using the three desirable properties described; trade-offs are required. Finally, subpopulation scorecards lead to the rejection of fewer applicants than scorecards built on full populations.     

浅谈信用证业务中的单证问题

在国际货款结算中信用证业务备受青睐,然而信用证属于单据业务,因此,出口商应了解信用证业务及其相应规则,做到认真审证、准确制单、及时交单,以确保安全收汇,维护自身的利益。     

Trade Credit in Small and Medium Size Firms: An Application of the System Estimator With Panel Data

Financing through suppliers is a subject that has been little studied in the economic literature in general and in corporate finance in particular. Although several hypotheses have been put forward to explain the different reasons behind this phenomenon, trade credit is not based on a general theory. This study provides empirical evidence about factors determining the use of trade credit for a sample of small and medium size firms, which are potentially the firms that would follow this financing route, since they are more rationed in credit markets. Using a panel of Canary-Island firms from 1990 to 1996, and by means of specifications with the system estimator, results reveal that trade credit leads to a reduction in asymmetric information between firms and their financial backers, as well as in transaction costs. Furthermore, we confirm the theory that companies with easier access to institutional finance act as a credit channel for those with greater difficulties to obtain external funds.     

The Impact of Automated Reminders on Credit Outcomes: Results from an Experimental Pilot Program

This study evaluates the impact of an automated reminder program designed to help credit counseling consumers manage their payment obligations and financial goals. Credit counseling consumers were randomly assigned to receive reminders linked to their financial goals and payment obligations for one year after an initial credit counseling session. We find that consumers offered reminders were 21% less likely than the control to experience severe (60+ day) payment delinquencies and were 12% less likely to experience a 30+ day delinquency. At the same time, these consumers saw a 10.5 point increase in credit scores relative to the control group. There were no significant impacts on total credit card balances or installment debt levels. This analysis provides promising evidence that automated reminders can provide an important complement to traditional credit counseling when it comes to improving consumers' credit profiles and does so at a fairly low cost.     

Corporate Social Responsibility: Views from the Frontline

This paper offers an evaluation of corporate policy and practice in respect of corporate social responsibility (CSR) deriving from an analysis of qualitative data, obtained during semi-structured interviews with the representatives of 16 companies from a variety of UK sectors including retail, mining, financial services and mobile telephony. The findings of the empirical survey are presented in five sections that trace chronologically the process of CSR policy development. The first identifies the meaning attributed to CSR by the respondent companies followed in the second section by the factors that are driving them to implement the CSR agenda. The third examines the use of the language of CSR and the concept’s role as either a substantive concept or simple label. The fourth identifies the criteria used for determining CSR policies and the objectives underlying them. The fifth and final section offers an analysis of the respondents’ predictions as to the future development of CSR. On the basis of the findings of the survey, this paper argues that, despite genuine attempts on the part of those responsible for CSR policy development to address stakeholder concerns, the context within which CSR has been implemented hinders its potential to offer stakeholders sufficient information by which to evaluate corporate performance in respect of CSR and the ability of CSR to operate as a meaningful and systematic constraint on corporate behaviour. Lisa Whitehouse is a Senior Lecturer in the Law School at the University of Hull. She has published in the areas of the English law of mortgage, the UK railway infrastructure and corporate social responsibility. She received her Ph.D. in Law from the University of Hull.     

收入分配差距、金融信贷约束与中国外贸失衡

20世纪90年代以来,与中国持续性贸易失衡相伴随的重要现象,就是国内收入分配差距问题日益突出。收入分配差距的拉大,使得中低收入者因占有的社会总产出份额下降而致使其消费和投资能力相对下降,在金融信贷约束下,"过剩"的总产出又难以通过借贷的方式在国内进行消费和投资,最终"被迫"出口到国际市场,因而对贸易失衡产生了重要影响。进一步的计量检验结果验证了上述理论假说的正确性,即:收入分配差距和金融信贷约束的确是中国外贸失衡的重要促成因素。据此,在中国实施进出口贸易平衡发展战略的过程中,应该更加关注缩小收入分配差距在其中所起的重要作用。