Home Bias,Border Effect and Internal Market Integration in China: Evidence from Inter‐provincial Value‐added Tax Statistics

This paper examines the home bias in regional trade and the integration of the internal market in China using inter‐provincial value‐added tax statistics. The administrative border between regions is an important trade barrier that results in home bias. Using a border effect model, we find evidence of home bias in provincial trade and relatively low border effects in domestic‐products trade in China. Moreover, the multilateral resistance model, based on a microeconomic foundation, also has strong power in explaining border effects in provincial trade. The empirical results imply that in accordance with some developed economies, China's market integration appears to have reached a high level.     

China's Regional Trade and Domestic Market Integrations

The global economic crisis in 2007 forced China to move from export‐led growth to promoting domestic demand. The move is significant, but the success of this new growth strategy depends critically on the level of domestic market integrations. In this paper, we use the methodology proposed by Anderson and Wincoop to examine China's domestic market integrations. We find evidence of border effects at both national and regional levels with significant regional differences, but they are smaller than some earlier studies suggest. Income growth, lower transportation costs, and higher intra‐industry trade all have positive effects on China's regional trade. Among the factors affecting regional trade, a better business environment has the largest positive impact on lifting China's domestic trade between regions, especially in intermediate goods, suggesting that improving business environment should be the priority of government at all levels in China.     

出口国技术水平与进口国知识产权保护的互动效应对出口国出口贸易的影响——基于中国出口贸易的实证

利用2007—2014年中国对112个国家出口贸易的面板数据,实证研究了中国技术水平、进口国知识产权保护及两者的交互效应对中国出口贸易的影响。结果显示:中国技术水平与高收入进口国知识产权保护的交互效应对中国出口贸易的影响显著为负,而与低收入进口国知识产权保护的交互效应的影响并不显著。这说明,中国出口产品技术水平的提升,对高收入进口国企业的威胁加大,迫使其建立更严苛的贸易壁垒,抑制中国企业出口。     

Productivity and Firms’ Sales Destination: Chinese Characteristics

In the trade literature, it is often assumed that there is little or no trade cost within a country's borders, but large trade costs across a country's borders. Thus, productive firms self‐select into exporters and the less productive firms can only serve domestic consumers. This paper presents a similar but different case in China, whose domestic markets are segmented by provincial borders mainly owing to the various (hidden) protective measures favoring local firms. These discriminative measures are de facto trade barriers. It applies the heterogeneous trade theory to examine the effects of firms’ productivity on their sales choices in both the international and domestic markets, in the presence of intra‐national and international trade costs. We find that productive firms not only self‐select into exporters, but also into sales in other provincial markets. This pattern is sensitive to firms’ locations and ownerships. For foreign direct investment (FDI)‐controlled firms, increases in productivity are associated with a higher probability of selling into other provincial markets, rather than into international ones. Productivity increases for firms operating in the inland area exhibit different patterns than those in the Eastern area.     

HOW MUCH DOES GEOGRAPHY DEFLECT SERVICES TRADE? CANADIAN ANSWERS

We estimate geographic barriers to trade in nine service categories for Canada's provinces from 1997 to 2007 with novel high‐quality bilateral provincial trade data. The border directly reduces average provincial trade with the United States relative to interprovincial trade to 2.4% of its borderless level. Incorporating multilateral resistance reduces foreign trade relative to interprovincial to 0.1% of its frictionless potential. Geography reduces services trade some seven times more than goods trade overall. Surprisingly, intraprovincial (local) trade in services and goods is equally deflected upward, implying that the border increases interprovincial trade much more in services than goods.     

Exchange‐rate Effects on China's Trade*

Though China's share of world trade exceeds that of Japan, little is known about the response of China's trade to changes in exchange rates. The few estimates available have two limitations. First, the data for trade prices are based on proxies for prices from other countries. Secondly, the estimation sample includes the period of China's transformation from a centrally‐planned economy to a more market‐oriented one. We address these limitations with an empirical model explaining the shares of China's exports and imports in world trade in terms of the real effective value of the renminbi. The specifications control for foreign direct investment and for the role of imports of parts to assemble exports. Parameter estimation uses disaggregated monthly trade data and excludes China's decentralization period. We find that a 10 percent real appreciation of the renminbi lowers the share of aggregate Chinese exports by nearly one percentage point. However, the estimated response of imports is negligible and lacks precision.     

Who benefits from China’s coal subsidy policies? A computable partial equilibrium analysis

Using a computable partial equilibrium model with monopolistic competition and based on global coal production, trade and consumption data in 2014, this study simulates the economic and welfare impacts of China’s coal subsidies at the industry level. Simulation results show that, first, the government’s subsidies have greatly promoted China's coal output, but may aggravate the overcapacity in China’s coal industry. Second, China's coal subsidies have significant trade destruction effects and its coal imports fall by more than 20% annually. Third, if considering the environmental cost, China's coal subsidies cause not only huge net welfare loss to China, but also harm to the global environment, thus no country benefits from China's coal subsidies.     

The effects of trade,aid, and investment on China's image in Latin America

Using repeated cross-sectional survey data, we analyze whether China's growing economic engagement in Latin America has an effect on citizens’ perceptions of China within 18 Latin American countries over the 2002–2013 period. Our instrumental-variables regressions exploit exogenous variation in the supply of Chinese exports, aid, and investment. Specifically, we use China's market penetration of developing countries outside of Latin America as the instrumental variable. In contrast to the widespread criticism, we do not find evidence that China's growing economic activities in the respective countries diminish average attitudes towards China—neither at the national nor at the provincial level. However, China's economic engagement appears to contribute to more polarized opinions on China: more individuals develop either very positive or very negative opinions on China. We interpret this as suggestive evidence that China's economic engagement creates winners and losers.     

Little Divergence: Evidence from Cotton Textiles in Japan and China 1868–1930

This paper looks at the role of textile exports in Japan and China's economic development in the period of 1868–1930 as a major explanation for the “Little Divergence” between the two countries in the context of the “Great Divergence” between Europe and Asia. Because of textiles' large weighting in proto‐industrialization gross domestic product (GDP), we postulate that China's initial 20‐year lag in textiles vis‐à‐vis Japan turns out to be fatal for its industry and that it eventually ordains totally different development patterns for the textile industry in the two countries, which ultimately led to different growth patterns for the overall economy. Although both countries saw rapid growth of textile exports, the nature of those exports and the entailed position of each country in the industry value chain of trade were quite different. We then use Granger causality tests to show that in one case (Japan) it is in support of the export‐led‐growth hypothesis (ELG) while in another (China) it is not. Our study then also explains why Japan's industrial revolution took place much earlier than China's.     

In Search of Fiscal Interactions: A Spatial Analysis of Chinese Provincial Infrastructure Spending

Using a dataset for 31 Chinese provinces from 1998 to 2006, this paper provides a spatial Durbin panel analysis to test for fiscal interactions among China's provinces in their public spending on infrastructure. We find significant positive interactions across Chinese provincial governments. Further analysis attempting to distinguish between the possible sources of such fiscal interactions reveals evidence of expenditure competition instead of yardstick competition.     

Firm ownership,industrial structure,and regional innovation performance in China's provinces

This paper uses panel data between 2000 and 2010 to explore how firm ownership and regional industrial structures contribute to regional innovation performance in Chinese provinces. Specifically, we explore how the extent of specialisation and diversification in regional industrial structures at the province level fosters both Marshall–Arrow–Romer and Jacobs spillovers, as well as how foreign and state ownership influence regional innovation. We find: (i) China's regional innovation systems benefit from Jacobs but not MAR externalities, with the former spurring higher quality innovation in the form of increased invention patenting; (ii) state-owned enterprises and foreign-invested enterprises advance local innovation, with the latter again fostering higher quality innovation; and (iii) a convergence towards a combination of low specialisation and high diversity in provincial industrial structure is taking place between China's more developed inland coastal provinces and less developed inland provinces. Implications and suggestions for policy-making and future research are discussed.     

Accounting for the China–US Trade Imbalance: An Ownership‐Based Approach

This paper focuses on measuring the trade imbalance between China and the United States (US) within the framework of the ownership‐based approach. It extends the baseline model developed, respectively, by NAS, Julius, and BEA into a three‐country framework, consisting of the domestic economy, the foreign economy, and the rest of the world. The results of the study show that the non‐US foreign direct investment in China is mostly responsible for China's trade surplus with the US. As a result, China's ownership‐based trade surplus is surprisingly small relative to the conventional measure.     

Shareholding structure, depoliticization and firm performance

In this study we use a dataset that provides information on Chinese Communist Party grassroots organizations’ political control over decision‐making in China's listed firms. Specifically, we examine how different types of shareholders affect (1) the party's level of decision‐making power and (2) the implications of party control for firm performance. We obtain two major results. First, we find that the proportion of shares held by domestic individual shareholders is negatively related to the party's level of decision‐making power. Second, we find that the existence of large institutional investors is associated with a reduced negative performance effect of party control. Our results suggest that both the exit and the voice channels may offer mechanisms for depoliticizing China's listed firms and improving their performance. This study both addresses an important corporate governance issue relevant to China's listed firms and offers interesting information in terms of comparative studies of corporate governance and reform strategies in transitional economies.     

中国电力行业环境效率及其影响因素研究 ——基于2008—2017年省级面板数据

本文采用SBM超效率模型,对2008—2017年中国30个省份电力行业环境效率进行测度,并开展空间差异和空间自相关分析.结果表明:中国电力行业环境效率还比较低;呈现出东部高于西部、西部高于中部的走势;各年度不同省份的电力行业环境效率差异显著;且存在空间依赖性.通过Tobit回归实证显示:中国电力行业环境效率的影响因素存在区域显著性差异;经济规模水平、电源结构、技术水平、燃煤效率对中国电力行业环境效率具有促进作用;人口水平对中国电力行业环境效率具有反向作用.最后提出了提升中国电力行业环境效率的政策建议.     

China's Fiscal Decentralization and Regional Economic Growth

The present paper applies Lucas's theory of endogenous growth and Stiglitz's theory of local public goods to build an econometric model consisting of five simultaneous equations to study China's fiscal decentralization effects on regional economic growth. The model is estimated by two‐stage least squares using a set of panel data on 31 Chinese provinces during 1996–2005. The estimated results show that China's fiscal decentralization increased the local governments' expenditure on physical infrastructure and education, which led to the rising local physical capital stock and human capital levels, respectively, and then resulted in the growth of regional economies.     

Industrial coal demand in China: A provincial analysis

The general concern on the environmental implications of the rising demand for coal registered in China during the last few years has induced considerable research effort to produce accurate forecasts of China's energy requirements. Nevertheless, no previous study has modelled the coal demand in China at provincial level. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we estimate and forecast the Chinese demand for coal using panel data disaggregated by provinces and accounting for spatial heterogeneity. Second, given the spatial nature of the data, we explicitly capture the spatial autocorrelation among provinces using spatial econometrics. In particular, we specify the Chinese industrial coal demand at provincial level with fixed-effect spatial models. The empirical results show that the fixed-effect spatial ADL model is able to capture the existing interdependence between provinces. This model forecasts an average annual increase in coal demand to 2010 of nearly 2%.     

高技术产业国家价值链网络结构与省域增加值分解——来自电子信息产业的证据

为破解我国在高技术产业全球价值链中面临的低端锁定困境,需要构建并完善国家价值链分工体系。构建中国高技术产业国家价值链内生增值传导网络结构分析框架,并以电子信息产业为例,对省域国内增加值进行分解。结果表明,现阶段中国电子信息产业上游技术研发能力较弱,整体增值能力不强;下游间接关联产业部门数量及关联系数值仍待提高;除中游外,上下游出口国内增加值偏低,国际竞争力较弱;东、中部省域国内完全增加值占据优势,内生增值能力方面各有所长,东北、西部省域国内完全增加值及其内生增值能力均较弱。同时,中国省域国际垂直专业化程度未表现出显著地理地区特征,即使同一地域的省域之间也存在不同程度差异。     

China's export growth and the China safeguard: threats to the world trading system?

Abstract Is there evidence from China's pre‐WTO accession period that newly imposed U.S. or EU import restrictions deflect Chinese exports to third markets? We examine this question by drawing on a newly constructed data set of U.S. and EU product‐level import restrictions on Chinese trade imposed between 1992 and 2001, and we estimate their impact on Chinese exports to alternative markets. We find no systematic evidence that the import restrictions imposed during this period resulted in Chinese exports surging to third markets. To the contrary, there is weak evidence of a chilling effect on China's exports to third markets.     

中国省域大数据与制造业融合测度分析 ——基于2013-2018年中国省级面板数据

基于2013—2018年中国省级面板数据,本文从产品、企业和产业三个层面系统分析大数据与制造业融合的内在机制,从融合基础、融合应用、融合动力和融合效益4个维度构建大数据与制造业融合水平评价指标体系,并利用熵值法对中国29个省市大数据与制造业融合水平进行测度与比较分析。研究发现:中国及各省市大数据与制造业融合水平均在不断提升;大数据与制造业的融合水平呈现出区域差异和两极分化的现象,东部地区大数据与制造业融合水平明显高于中西部地区。在此基础上,提出了推动大数据与制造业深度融合的对策性建议。