迪维西亚(Divisia)货币总量VAR模型的预测分析

本文针对最新编制的我国迪维西亚(Divisia)货币总量(指数)数据,运用向量自回归(VAR)模型预测实际产出和物价指数并与简单加总货币总量所得到的结果进行比较.结果显示,在预测我国实际产出值的VAR模型中,含有Divisia狭义货币(M1)总量的模型比含有简单加总货币总量M1的模型更精确;在预测我国的物价指数值的VAR模型中,含有Divisia广义货币(M2)总量的模型比含有简单加总货币总量M1和M2的模型更精确.     

Monetary Policy

We are fast approaching the point at which the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will have to make a decision about the future of its forward guidance policy. The policy had been intended to reassure households, firms and markets that Bank Rate would remain at 0.5% for a prolonged period. However, the economy and, in particular the labour market, have improved so quickly that unemployment will reach the 7% threshold within the next few months, more than two years earlier than the Bank had forecast when it introduced forward guidance…     

The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy

Abstract.  The paper deals with the asymmetric effects on output of tight and easy monetary policy: the output reduction following a negative monetary policy shock appears bigger than the expansion induced by similar sized positive shock. The paper first reviews historical evidence of asymmetry, focusing on the United States, Japan and Italy. This is followed by a review of the econometric literature on monetary policy asymmetry and consideration of the theoretical reasons that can explain this asymmetry.     

从货币政策规则看货币政策中介目标选择

本文从货币政策最优规则和有效规则的角度出发,分析中央银行的福利损失情况,进而对不同的货币政策中介目标作出福利评判。     

Briefing Paper The Debate about Monetary Policy

The main implications from the discussion above are:

• 1. 

  If the PSBR affects the money supply it should also have a direct influence upon inflation.
• 2. 

  Our research indeed suggests that the PSBR is the root cause of inflation as well as the root cause of monetary growth.
• 3. 

  The government should therefore be less pre-occupied with M3 and lay even greater emphasis on the PSBR.
• 4. 

  It should avoid sinking its energies into money base control. At most some form of money base control is advisable as a precaution.
• 5. 

  To avoid any further money market disturbances the authorities should resort to a floating rate policy for MLR as was formerly the case.

     

The Monetary Policy Committee: an end-of-term evaluation

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee has controlled interest rates since June 1997. By comparing the MPC's record with that of the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) and evaluating the degree of volatility in the financial markets, this paper concludes that in many respects the MPC succeeded in its task. However, whilst the lack of 'groupthink' and the record compared with the SMPC are commendable, increased financial market volatility suggests the MPC could have done better.     

Evaluating the Monetary Policy Committee

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee has now been in operation for two years. How can one judge whether it is performing its tasks successfully? In this article Alan Budd considers some of the difficulties in answering what might appear to be a straightforward question.     

Briefing Paper: The Interdependence of Fiscal and Monetary Policy under Economic and Monetary Union

This article explores the implications of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) for the conduct of fiscal policy. Under EMU, where the European Central Bank is successful in controlling inflation, the loss of seigniorage revenues causes a potential problem for public sector deficits. To prevent the debt-income ratio from spiralling upwards, a primary budget surplus is ultimately required. EMU has usually been considered as a strong central monetary authority which forces fiscal discipline on lax national governments. But this is not the only possibility. Because the debt ratio can be reduced by surprise inflation, the price expectations of the private sector are important. Once these are taken into account, EMU can be examined in a 'game' framework in which the reputation of the authorities and the existence or otherwise of cooperation between the fiscal and monetary authorities becomes a critical factor.
The paper finds that where the authorities enjoy reputation and cooperate, a one-off reduction in public spending will lead to a permanent decline in the real interest rate and crowd in extra private spending (consumption and investment). Without reputation the cut in government spending has to be sustained. Where there is neither reputation nor cooperation, the outcome depends on the structure of the European economy and whether fiscal policy can effect the terms of trade between countries. If the terms of trade remain unchanged, the outturn is similar to the case of cooperation without reputation, but where the terms of trade can be improved in one country, there is no incentive to cut public spending. In this case the outturn is higher inflation with private spending crowded out.     

股市“财富效应”对我国货币政策的影响

伴随着中国证券市场的长足发展 ,股市的“财富效应”也日益显著。本文从分析股市“财富效应”及“财富负效应”影响货币政策的机制入手 ,进而探讨了其对我国现行货币政策的冲击 ,并相应提出了几点政策建议。     

离散卡根模型中的货币政策机制分析

在离散卡根模型中引入理性预期假设,可以对卡根货币模型进行扩展,通过求解模型的理性预期解来分析跳跃变量约束下各种货币政策的冲击效果。本文结合价格变量的动态调整途径,对形成通货膨胀和通货紧缩的货币政策方式进行分析,进而提出一些有助于经济运行脱离流动性陷阱和缓解通货紧缩的政策建议。     

财政政策与货币政策相对有效性研究

本文从实证的角度 ,对我国财政政策和货币政策的相对有效性进行了研究。运用协整分析方法并通过邹氏检验 ,对整个数据期间进行了制度检验。结果显示1980年以前平均来说 ,财政政策比货币政策有效 ,而其后平均来说货币政策比财政政策有效。这一结论与我国建国以来宏观经济调控政策选择的基本情况相吻合 ,为对宏观调控的政策选择提供了有力的支持。     

我国货币政策:面临的问题与政策建议

一、当前我国货币政策面临的问题与挑战 从长期来看,我国金融形势和货币政策方面存在一些慢性紧缩因素,需要逐步加以解决. (一)经济增长速度放慢,物价指数再次下降,货币政策的法定目标受到越来越大的压力和挑战     

货币政策的产业效应研究:一个理论综述

货币政策已成为推动产业结构变迁的重要动因。文献回顾发现,货币政策产业非对称性效应对产出和产业结构有不同的涵义,利率渠道和金融加速器效应是影响货币政策产业效应的主要因素,货币政策产业效应的传导机制及其与产业政策的协调是未来研究的方向。     

A Proposed Framework for Monetary Policy

Leave the ERM, cut interest rates and let the pound find its own level⃛ it's the cut and run option. The credibility of our anti-inflationary strategy would be in tatters. And quite soon interest rates would have to go back up again - Norman Lamont, in a speech to the European Policy Forum, July 1992.     

Trade Credit and Monetary Policy Transmission

Abstract.  Recently, an increasing number of papers have investigated the role of trade credit as an external source of finance when analyzing the monetary transmission mechanism. These works support the balance sheet-channel view and at the same time explain the difficulties encountered when looking for evidence in favor of the bank-lending channel. This paper presents a survey of the emerging literature on the role of trade credit in the transmission of monetary policy, trying to link it with the well-established credit-channel literature.     

中国货币政策效应的区域差异研究

货币政策效应的区域差异影响地区经济协调发展。本文运用固定效应变系数模型估计了各地区的货币政策敏感系数,并进一步用结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型和结构方差分解法分析了货币冲击对区域经济的影响。研究发现中国货币政策效应存在显著的区域差异,主要原因在于货币政策传导机制差异。建立充分反映区域经济特点的货币政策体系以及发挥货币政策结构性功能,有利于提高货币政策作用和缩小区域间货币政策的不对称性。     

我国货币政策产业效应的非对称性研究——来自制造业的实证

货币政策影响实体经济的主要传导途径有三个:利率途径、汇率途径和信贷途径。制造业中,不同的行业对这三种传导途径的反应速度和深度均不同,所以统一的货币政策对不同产业往往带来不同的影响,这种影响既包括产量也包括价格,被称为货币政策产业效应的非对称性。本文利用向量自回归和脉冲响应函数证实了我国货币政策对制造业中各产业存在的这种非对称性,提出并检验了造成这种产业效应非对称性的原因。     

我国财政货币政策的区域差异效应研究

财政货币政策的区域效应是有关区域协调发展的重要问题。本文建立了一个包括政府投资、银行贷款、价格指数和东中西部人均产出等变量的结构向量自回归SVAR模型,通过比较投资和贷款冲击的脉冲响应,发现:①我国的财政货币政策对东部的作用强于中西部,存在明显的区域差异效应;②与货币政策相比,财政政策对区域经济发展的作用更大;③1978年后,两种政策的作用都有所增强,货币政策对中西部,特别是对西部的影响明显增加。其含义是,为了缩小地区差距,应根据各个区域的特点,制定差异化的区域政策,在注重财政政策的同时,充分发挥货币政策的积极作用。