The employment effects of trade regimes and industrialisation policy in South Africa

This paper compares two studies which have estimated the employment effects of different trade regimes for South Africa. The differing results of these studies are important in terms of facilitating the choice among alternative trade strategies at a time when the economy is experiencing low growth and economic sanctions. The paper concludes that one of the studies is incorrect in its conclusions in that it falls to carefully define the problem being examined, leading to results which have limited applicability.     

Coordinating unions,wages and employment

Summary In this paper we consider a two-sector economy in which individual unions are affiliated into a federation of unions. We analyze the consequences of two different types of wage setting. Firstly, individual unions set wages in their own sector without taking into account the effect of their wages on the employment level in the other sector. There may be positive as well as negative externalities. A positive (negative) externality may exist if a higher (lower) wage in one sector implies a higher level of employment in the other sector. Both cases may occur in our model. Secondly, wages in the two sectors are set by the federation of unions. We show that in this case higher (lower) wages result than in the first case if a positive (negative) externality exists.Preliminary versions of this paper were presented at seminars at the University of Oldenburg and the University of Groningen and the Fourth Annual Congress of the European Economic Association, Augsburg, September 2–4, 1989. The authors would like to thank W.H. Buiter, H. van Ees, J. Hartog, Th. v.d. Klundert, S.K. Kuipers, Chr. Mulder and T. van Veen for their comments on an earlier version of this paper.     

Real wages,investment and employment: New evidence from West German sectoral data

Real Wages, Investment and Employment: New Evidence from West German Sectoral Data. — Non-separable capital adjustment costs imply that investment directly affects the demand for labour and therefore justify not only the lagged dependent variable but also the presence of investment expenditures or Tobin’s valuation ratio Q in labour demand estimation. On this basis, the authors estimate a very parsimonious specification of demand for blue-collar workers in a panel of 32 West German industries. They find much larger short-run real wage employment elasticities than previous research, and robustly significant positive effects of investment or Tobin’s Q on labour demand.     

Income distribution,economic structure and employment in South Africa

This paper discusses the impact of a redistribution of current income from the White to the Black population on the distribution of sectoral output, and total employment by means of a semi‐closed input‐output model.

The results show that a redistribution of current income towards Black households — which no doubt will have positive social and political repercussions — has a non‐negative effect on GDP and a definite positive effect on the performance of sectors with a high private consumption expenditure component, as well as on total employment.     

Real exchange rate, agglomerations, and irreversibilities: macroeconomic policy and FDI in EMU

Fiscal policy in EMU has to be evaluated in the light of thechanging nature of capital mobility in Europe and its effectson growth. Most arguments about the effects of fiscal policyin EMU assume that we live in a perfect competition world witha unique natural rate of output for each country. The removalof barriers to foreign direct investment (FDI) accompanied bythe prevalence of imperfect competition mean that the naturalrate of output is to be determined by locational competition.We show that FDI is influenced by relative costs and is attractedby agglomerations, and that the level of technology dependson the stock of FDI. Sustained expansionary fiscal policieswill raise costs and make locations less attractive. Agglomerationscould be destroyed by these higher costs, and the size of thenation will shrink. These effects will constrain policy-makersmuch more than the Stability Pact.     

The rationale for an employment guarantee in South Africa

This article considers what would happen if unemployed people in South Africa had a right to a minimum level of regular work on decent terms. It looks at the example of India, where a law was passed in 2005 guaranteeing rural households up to 100 days of work a year at minimum wage rates. More than 55 million households now participate in this programme – a rare example of a policy innovation bringing about significant change in a society. India's employment guarantee has important implications for social and economic policy and gives new meaning to the concept of ‘a right to work’. The article explores how structural inequality limits South Africa's development options, and considers early lessons from South Africa's Community Work Programme to make the case for an employment guarantee in South Africa.     

Defining and measuring informal employment in South Africa

There is limited consensus on how to define informal employment in South Africa, but in the South African and international literature the three most common ways of capturing informal employment are the enterprise, employment relationship and worker characteristics approaches. This paper reviews the methods used by Statistics South Africa to measure informal employment before and after the introduction of the Quarterly Labour Force Survey, and other recently proposed methods. It then investigates the congruence, if any, between five measures of informality used in 2009. It finds that 94.7% of the self-employed are informal according to at least one definition, but only 62.6% according to all five combined. In addition, these two proportions are only 67.7% and 6.9% respectively in the case of informal employees. Econometric analysis is conducted to further investigate the differences between these measures.     

Towards a science and technology‐policy for South Africa

The history of industrial development in South Africa is marked by lack of a coherent science and technology policy. The changing political and economic context has brought a recognition of the need for such a policy, especially for attaining international competitiveness. This article explores some considerations that should enter into the formulation of such a policy. It focuses on the definition of goal sets for science and technology policy and on the mechanisms needed to pursue them; discusses the debate between the structuralist and neoclassical approaches to the role of technology in growth and development; and examines the roles of various research and development agents and some of the main determinants of R&D activity for their implications for policy instruments.     

Efficiency wages, trade unions, and employment

This paper integrates union bargaining into an efficiency modelwith imperfect monitoring of worker performance. The model isused to examine the effects of an increase in the benefit replacementratio on wages, employment, and effort. It is shown that, incontrast to both standard shirking and trade union models, theseeffects are all ambiguous. In particular, if unions have somebargaining strength, a higher replacement ratio may reduce wagesand increase employment Whenever employment is increased thelevel of effort falls.     

Outward investment, employment, and wages in Swedish multinationals

Examining detailed data for the home-country operations in Swedishmultinationals during the period 1986-94, this paper shows thatthere are signs of very notable structural changes in the home-countryoperations of these corporations. It also shows that the effectsvary according to economic conditions in the home country. Inthe 1980s, when the Swedish economy was characterized by hightaxes, high inflation rates, and a tight labour market, relativelyattractive jobs within the multinational corporations (MNCs)were relocated from Swedish plants to foreign affiliates. Inthe 1990s, by contrast, when the financial crisis had necessitateda host of micro- and macroeconomic reforms, the location decisionof the MNCs were more favourable for the Swedish economy. Newjobs created by the multinationals were found in activitieswith high productivity and wages. Thus, home-country effectsof foreign direct investment seem, to a large extent, to bedetermined by the home countries' economic environment.     

Population policy in South Africa: a critical perspective

The argument in this article is that population growth and the concept of balancing resources against population growth is flawed when the context, in this case South Africa, is gross inequalities in resource distribution. The fact is that causes of poverty are located in the social and political structures which give people unequal access to existing resources or international aid. Population trends reflect the mode of production of that society. It is argued that the Malthusian law of population and the theory of demographic transition is ahistorical and inaccurate. The theory does not explain why population growth rates change. In South Africa, fertility reflects lack of control over one's life and poverty. Migrant labor in South Africa undermined normal social institutions and disrupted family life. Government has emphasized a fear of a future population crisis because of resource shortages and a fear of the growing black population. The South African population development program is extracted and discussed. Questions are raised about the theory of demographic transition, the way resource allocation is ascertained, the relationship between resources and population in a specific area, and the relationship between population growth and development in general. The theory of demographic transition is examined and the Western influences which contributed to population growth through requests for changes in sexual mores and the effects of colonization. When demographic transition theory postulates that mortality rates decline with industrialization as a result of access to medical care and an improved diet, it doesn't take into account the discriminatory health care allocation under apartheid, or the displacement of rural people from their land and undermining of the rural peasantry. Separate development has led to inferior schooling and lack of access to skilled employment. In discussing the availability of resources in South Africa, the question is raised as to whether there is an absolute limit to water, or whether water management or water conservation is at issue, as in the case example of the Transkei. What is economical reflects political decisions about national priorities when consideration is given to alternative strategies for increasing the water supply, or solving pollution problems. The potential to feed South Africans is substantiated, and the problems of maldistribution identified. In establishing the balance between family planning and development, the Population Development Program (PDP) expresses contradictory aims; i.e., seeking community involvement of a politically disenfranchised population. The concept of overpopulation and the application of population control programs in South Africa does not address the problems of poverty and powerlessness.     

Levels,trends and consistency of employment and unemployment figures in South Africa

This article appraises the similarities and dissimilarities between the major sources of information on the South African labour force, ie the CSS Employment Series, the Standardised Employment Series and recent household surveys. It concludes that the generally bleak picture of very high unemployment rates presented in the household surveys is broadly accurate. Further, race, gender and location are major determinants of labour‐force participation and employment. Finally, the article highlights the lack of work experience among the unemployed.     

Trade policy,productivity and learning: Evidence in South Africa

The theoretical argument in support of trade liberalisation is based, in part, on exports that foster dynamic efficiency gains primarily through learning and technological upgrading. Using data collected in the motor vehicle components industry, the article explores whether there is any evidence in the South African manufacturing sector to support this hypothesis. Although the conclusions are tentative, the author finds no unambiguous empirical support for the argument that, in the South African context, trade liberalisation fosters learning and innovation at the level of the firm.     

Recent fertility patterns and population policy in South Africa

This study presents estimated levels of age-specific fertility (ASF) and P/F ratios in South Africa, by selected characteristics for the African population. Data were obtained from the nationwide 1993 Living Standards Survey and adjusted to reflect ASF. The national total fertility rate (TFR) was 3.7 children/woman, or significantly higher than the 2.9 estimated by the 1994 October Household Survey. Fertility was highest in Northern Province (4.5). Three other provinces had over 4.0 TFR: Free State, Eastern Cape, and North-West. The lowest fertility was in Western Cape (2.3) followed by Gauteng (2.9). Whites had the lowest rates; Africans had the highest rates. Fertility declined for Africans and Indians. Fertility was associated with residence, age, and work status, and did not differ by residence for Africans. Differences between African and White fertility were in the timing of the start, peak, and termination of childbearing. Peak childbearing was 20-24 years for Africans and older ages for Whites and others. Adolescent childbearing among Africans was high in 4 regions and 2 provinces. Fertility declined among women aged over 30 years and rose among younger women. Fertility decline in any age group was not apparent in Venda and Bophuthatswana. Nonmarital fertility rose for all but the oldest childbearing ages. Fertility did not decline among well educated women aged under 40 years. Over 50% of African women in peak childbearing ages had never been married and had at least 1 baby. Fertility decline has slowed due to nonmarital childbearing and increased childbearing in the peak ages.     

Income distribution,macroeconomic analysis and barriers to full employment

This paper seeks to reassert the significance of income distribution for macroeconomic analysis. It argues that the non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, which has been central to mainstream macroeconomic analysis, should be viewed as a distributional constraint on the achievement of full employment with the implication that mechanisms to resolve distributional conflict without resort to the weapon of unemployment are required if full employment is to be secured. The significance of income distribution for aggregate demand is then been examined, and it is argued that higher profit shares in the past 15 years have harmed the prospects for high levels of economic activity and employment, and that rising profitability does not appear to have stimulated investment. It is then finally argued that monetary policy should not be seen as a technical matter but rather as a policy with significant distributional impacts.     

The relationship between employment and mental and physical health in South Africa

This paper estimated the relationship between employment and depression, hypertension, diabetes and tuberculosis in South Africa between 2008 and 2014. South Africa has high levels of economic inactivity and unemployment as well as a high disease burden occasioned by depression, other non-communicable diseases and tuberculosis. Data came from the National Income Dynamics Study panel dataset. Using fixed effects, random effects and pooled ordinary least squares regressions, depression and diabetes were associated with a 4–6 percentage point decline in employment probability, while tuberculosis was associated with a 12–13 percentage point employment decline. The results suggested that the employment-health relationship possibly operated through illness being associated with increased economic inactivity, rather than through making the search efforts of the unemployed unsuccessful. Moreover, the employment-health relationship not only existed contemporaneously, but extended into the future (especially for the physical health indicators).     

The employment environment for youth in rural South Africa: A mixed-methods study

South Africa has high youth unemployment. This article examines the predictors of youth employment in rural Agincourt, Mpumalanga Province. A survey of 187 out-of-school 18 to 24 year olds found that only 12% of women and 38% of men were currently employed. Men with skills/training were significantly more likely to report employment, mostly physical labour (adjusted odds ratio: 4.5; confidence interval: 1.3, 15.3). In-depth interviews with 14 of the youth revealed that women are perceived more suitable for formal employment, which is scarce, informing why women were more likely to pursue further education and yet less likely to be employed. Ten key informants from local organisations highlighted numerous local youth employment resources while, in contrast, all youth in the sample said no resources were available, highlighting a need for the organisations to extend their services into rural areas. Because these services are focused on entrepreneurship, programmes to increase financial literacy and formal employment opportunities are also needed.