Test–Retest Reliability of Choice Experiments in Environmental Valuation

The paper presents the results of the first test–retest study on choice experiments in environmental valuation. In a survey concerning landscape externalities of onshore wind power in central Germany, respondents answered the same five choice sets at two different points in time. Each choice set comprised three alternatives described by five attributes, and the time interval between the test and the retest was eleven months. The analysis takes place at three different levels, investigating choice consistency at the choice task level and repeatability of the latent construct utility at the level of parametric models as well as at the level of willingness-to-pay estimates. At the choice task level we observed 59?% identical choices. The parametric analysis shows that the test and retest estimates are not equal, even when we control for scale, that is, differences in the error variance. However, comparing the marginal willingness-to-pay estimates among test and retest reveals only a statistically significant difference for one of the attributes. Overall, this indicates a moderate test–retest reliability taking into account that consistency at the choice task level overlooks the stochastic nature of the process underlying discrete choice experiments.     

Nonparticipation or Misspecification? The Impacts of Nonparticipation on Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation

Dichotomous choice (or Referendum) contingent valuation surveys have become the predominate choice for valuing goods and services otherwise not valued in a standard market (nonmarket goods and services). A number of researchers have recently recommended that dichotomous choice contingent valuation studies include a follow-up question to all no responses to determine whether the no response is a result of unwillingness to pay, or nonparticipation. If the goal of the study is to investigate the impact of covariates on either mean willingness to pay or the probability of nonparticipation, simple identification of indifferent individuals will not suffice. A simulation study shows that existing econometric models designed to account for nonparticipation are extremely sensitive to misspecification bias. Accurate identification of the probability of nonparticipation is hampered by potential misspecification of the distribution of willingness to pay.     

My Choice: Women’s Contraceptive-Use Autonomy in Bangladesh

ABSTRACT

Using a nationally representative household survey for two cohorts of married women, this study examines women’s contraceptive-use autonomy (CUA) incidence and correlates in Bangladesh, focusing on the role of education. Previous research has examined the incidence and correlates of contraceptive use and of several dimensions of female autonomy but only rarely the intersection of the two – that is, CUA. This study finds that women from the younger cohort are far more likely to have complete autonomy over contraceptive use than women from the older cohort. Detailed decompositions reveal that the improvement in education across cohorts is the main correlate of the improved generational CUA gap. Health knowledge, especially knowledge that the use of condoms can help avoid contracting HIV/AIDS, is part of the transmission mechanism between women’s education and women’s CUA but also exerts an additional influence on CUA.     

Marginal WTP and Distance Decay: The Role of ‘Protest’ and ‘True Zero’ Responses in the Economic Valuation of Recreational Water Quality

We evaluate the sensitivity of distance decay in individuals’ stated willingness to pay (WTP) for water quality improvements in eutrophied lakes. We extend the standard model of contingent valuation (CV) by allowing individuals to adopt a sequential evaluation process consisting of two decision stages. In the first stage respondents decide whether they are ‘protesters’, have a WTP   \(=\)   ‘true zero’ or a \(\hbox {WTP}>0\) . Conditioned on a strictly positive WTP, we use Lee’s selectivity-corrected model to determine the magnitude of their WTP in the second stage. Using CV survey data from Norway we find significant distance decay in the first stage classification of respondents as ‘protesters’, ‘true zero’ WTP, or positive WTP. In the second stage model for positive WTP responses, we find little or no significant relationships when correcting for selection. Results suggest that previous findings of significant distance decay in contingent valuation of lake and river water in Europe may be driven by the definition of ‘protest’ and ‘true zero’ respondents. We find that WTP for water quality may be more useful as a qualitative indicator of political support for user financed water quality measures, than as a cardinal measure of marginal utility of water quality improvements.     

Age effects in Okun’s law with different indicators of unemployment

We reassess the results from the literature on the relationship between the youth unemployment rate and GDP growth (Okun’s law), based on the concern that the unemployment rate is not an ideal indicator for teenagers and young adults. Using the unemployment ratio instead, we find that youth unemployment (15–24 years old) is not significantly more responsive to economic growth than prime-age (25–64) unemployment. However, compared to prime-age unemployment, teenagers’ unemployment (15–19) is relatively unresponsive, whereas young adult’s (20–24) unemployment is more strongly correlated with economic growth. These results are quite different than those obtained with the unemployment rate as the dependent variable.     

Choosing one’s own informal institutions: on Hayek’s critique of Keynes’s immoralism

In the main, Hayek favored rules that apply equally to all and located such rules in tradition, beyond conscious construction. This led Hayek to attack Keynes’s immoralism, i.e., the position that one should be free to choose how to lead one’s life irrespective of the informal institutions in place. However, it is argued here that immoralism may be compatible with Hayek’s enterprise since Hayek misinterpreted Keynes, who did not advocate the dissolving of all informal rules for everybody. By avoiding this misinterpretation, immoralism can be seen as institutional experimentation at the margin, which Hayek himself favored.

Effects of European integration on Austria’s economy

High expectations were placed on the project of European economic integration and Austria’s participation in it. Economists had expected that the Single Market would provide a positive supply shock, i.e. rising productivity, resulting in more growth. The optimistic forecasts for neither the EU nor for Austria were borne out by actual economic trends. Economic growth as well as productivity growth decelerated, while unemployment increased. Monetary union was implemented with an economic policy framework, the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) that geared monetary policy only to price stability and at the same time prescribed restrictive fiscal policies. The SGP therefore reveals a deflationary bias. The existing literature on the effects of EU accession on the Austrian economy by design fails to account for the restrictive effects of the SGP. The paper presents simulation results allowing for supply shocks as well as demand shocks. The simulations are based on a medium‐sized macroeconometric model. The results indicate that recent studies overestimate the positive effects of European integration. A simulation of the restrictive demand‐side effects of the SGP, with the assumption that around half of the fall in public consumption growth in the Euro countries can be attributed to the SGP, produced significant negative growth effects. The net effect suggests a negative quarter percentage point p.a. during the period 1995–2004.     

Differential effects of mother’s and child’s postnatal WIC participation on breastfeeding

We evaluate the effect of postnatal participation in the Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) programme on breastfeeding decisions using the data from the IFPS II. We find that the infant’s WIC participation positively affects the hazard of discontinuing breastfeeding, both partial and exclusive (and is thus associated with abbreviated breastfeeding duration). No significant association is found between the mother’s participation and the hazards of stopping exclusive or partial breastfeeding. Such differential effects might be a result of the programme’s policy, according to which the infant, but not the mother needs to be enrolled to receive free formula.     

The effect of a wife’s retirement on her husband’s mental health

This article examines the effect of wives’ retirement on their husband’s mental health in Australia. By exploiting the exogenous variations in women’s retirement induced by the age pension qualifying ages, we find that spousal retirement status has a positive impact on the mental health of older men. This beneficial impact is found to strengthen with wives’ time spent in retirement. We show that wife’s retirement affects the constituents of her husband’s mental well-being in different ways. We also have identified four channels for the positive linkage between older women’s retirement and the mental health of their spouse.     

The Effect of Consumers’ Real-World Choice Sets on Inferences from Stated Preference Surveys

For stated preference (SP) studies, we develop a model that assesses the influence of choice set misspecification arising from the omission of perceived substitutes among real-world alternatives in the same class of goods. This problem is most likely to be present when individuals are allowed to select a “no purchase” option instead of being forced to choose from an explicit set of SP alternatives with hypothetical attribute levels. A convenient feature of our model is that researchers do not need to know exactly which omitted real substitute the individual most prefers, only the set of real substitutes that exists. In our empirical illustration, a comparison of rival models suggests researchers who overlook the presence of perceived real alternatives related to an SP experiment can end up with noticeably biased welfare estimates. Our more-general model suggests that it may be prudent for future SP researchers to anticipate, then test and possibly correct for, distortions in utility parameter estimates that result from this problem.      

The Time-varying Impact of China’s Economic Rebalancing on Korea’s Exports to China

While China seeks to shift from exports and investment to a consumption-oriented economy and to increase the self-sufficiency rate of exports, this study uses time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) to examine the impact of economic structural changes in China on Korea’s exports to China over time. The study results suggest that the impact of China’s export shocks on Korea’s exports has weakened, which demonstrates the slowdown in regional production fragmentation, considering that Korea’s export goods are mainly intermediate goods. Instead, the influence of China’s domestic demand shock on Korea’s exports has expanded, which implies that China has increasingly become the final destination of intermediate goods made in Korea.     

The effects of inflation targeting on Okun’s law

This article provides the first empirical evidence that the adoption of inflation targeting (IT) matters for the extent of tradeoff between unemployment and output, that is Okun’s law. Our full sample results indicate that IT leads to a more negative Okun’s coefficient, suggesting that, for a given reduction of output, the introduction of IT is associated with a higher unemployment rate. Subsample analyses reveal that the whole sample results are mainly driven by the industrial subsample outcomes, not the developing counterparts. Our findings point out that IT not only influences macroeconomic variables per se but also affects the relationship between/among macroeconomic variables.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Effects on Firms’ Economic Performance of Implementing Environmental Management Systems

This paper investigates whether environmental management system (EMS) implementation influences a firm’s value added, one of the indices of economic performance. Because it is expected that EMS implementation increases a firm’s value added through an increase in demand and an improvement in productivity, a simple model to identify how these effects influence a firm’s value added is developed and is empirically investigated using panel data for Japanese manufacturing firms in the period 1996–2007. The main findings are as follows. For the full sample, EMS implementation increases a firm’s value added through an increase in demand and improvement in productivity. Among these firms, however, the positive effect of the implementation through an increase in demand mainly exists for export-oriented firms. At the industry level, the effects of EMS implementation vary among different industries. These results empirically prove that there are plural paths for EMS implementation to improve a firm’s economic performance.     

Firm’s tax evasion in a principal-agent model with self-protection

Gatekeepers have an increasing role in taxation and regulation. Whereas burdening them with legal liability for misconducts that benefit those who resort to their services actually discourages wrongdoings—as will be clarified in the article—an alienation effect can also arise. The gatekeeper might become more interested in covering up the illegal behavior. This article studies the problem with respect to tax evasion by firms in a principal-agent framework. It highlights the role of legal rules pertaining to liability for tax evasion in shaping the choices of the parties, as concealment costs vary according to whether the risk-neutral principal or the riskaverse agent is held responsible when tax evasion is detected. The main result of the analysis is that there is a simple ex post test that can be carried out to infer whether harnessing the agent was socially beneficial.     

Critical remarks on Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-first Century

This article discusses the central macroeconomic claims that are made in Thomas Piketty’s book Capital in the Twenty-first Century. The article aims to show that Piketty’s contentions are not only logically flawed but also contradicted by his own data.     

An economic evaluation of SPREAD on Rwanda’s rural population

Sustainable Partnerships to Enhance Rural Enterprises and Agricultural Development (SPREAD) was a programme to enhance the value chain for commodities in Rwanda including coffee. The implicit concept was that improving the value chain would increase the incomes for smallholders and, hence, reduce the poverty rate. The results indicate that Rwanda coffee prices increased relative to an index price for traded coffee with the implementation of SPREAD. In addition, the results indicate that participation in the coffee market at this time was associated with higher household income and lower rates of poverty.     

The effects of China’s split-share reform on firms’ capital structure choice

China’s split-share structure reform in 2005–2006 mitigates agency conflicts between controlling shareholders and minority shareholders and thus may bring substantial changes to corporate financing behaviour. This article examines the impact of that reform on the capital structure decisions of firms by applying a variety of trade-off and pecking-order models. Using data from 1176 non-financial Chinese listed firms during the period 2000–2012, we present empirical evidence indicating that equity tracks the financing deficit better than debt in Chinese firms, a finding which is not consistent with pecking-order theory. This phenomenon is more prominent after 2006 as share reform increases trading activity in the secondary stock market and improves the transparency of financial markets. In addition, Chinese firms have an optimal leverage ratio and they adjust below-target leverage ratios faster than above-target leverage ratios after the implementation of share structure reform, although they make symmetric adjustments towards the target leverage ratio before 2007. Finally, recent share reform has prompted Chinese firms to more quickly address the divergence of actual leverage ratios from long-term target levels, but has slowed their response to short-term target leverage divergence.     

Origins of Menger’s thought in French liberal economists

Carl Menger, who became regarded as the founder of the Austrian School, did not only confront the German Historical School and criticize British Classical Political Economy, he also read the French Liberal economists. The link between Say and Menger has already been asserted, but on an intuitive basis. It seemed necessary to give substantial proof of its true extent, as well as to document it with proper archival work—that is done in the present article. Menger’s reading of other French authors: Count Pellegrino Rossi, who succeeded Say at the Collège de France, Michel Chevalier, a major name of the French Industrialization, Frédéric Bastiat, the famous defender of free-trade, is less known. It is also documented here, bringing to light first-hand material, mainly from the Menger Collection located in Japan, and the Perkins Library at Duke University. Thus are acknowledged the origins of Menger’s thought in French liberal economists.

Expert panel on practice patterns in the management of cow’s milk protein allergy and associated economic burden of disease on health service in Turkey

Aims: To evaluate practice patterns in the management of cow’s milk protein allergy (CMPA) and associated economic burden of disease on health service in Turkey.

Materials and methods: This study was based on experts’ views on the practice patterns in management of CMPA manifesting with either proctocolitis or eczema symptoms and, thereby, aimed to estimate economic burden of CMPA. Practice patterns were determined via patient flow charts developed by experts using the modified Delphi method for CMPA presented with proctocolitis and eczema. Per patient total 2-year direct medical costs were calculated, including cost items of physician visits, laboratory tests, and treatment.

Results: According to the consensus opinion of experts, 2-year total direct medical cost from a payer perspective and societal perspective was calculated to be $US2,116.05 and $US2,435.84, respectively, in an infant with CMPA presenting with proctocolitis symptoms, and $US4,001.65 and $US4,828.90, respectively, in an infant with CMPA presenting with eczema symptoms. Clinical nutrition was the primary cost driver that accounted for 89–92% of 2-year total direct medical costs, while the highest total direct medical cost estimated from a payer perspective and societal perspective was noted for the management of an exclusively formula-fed infant presenting either with proctocolitis ($US3,743.85 and $US4,025.63, respectively) or eczema ($US6,854.10 and $US7,917.30, respectively). The first line use of amino acid based formula (AAF) was associated with total direct cost increment $US1,848.08 and $US3,444.52 in the case of proctocolitis and eczema, respectively.

Limitations: Certain limitations to this study should be considered. First, being focused only on direct costs, the lack of data on indirect costs or intangible costs of illness seems to be a major limitation of the present study, which likely results in a downward bias in the estimates of the economic cost of CMPA. Second, given the limited number of studies concerning epidemiology and practice patterns in CMPA in Turkey, use of expert clinical opinion of the panel members rather than real-life data on practice patterns that were used to identify direct medical costs might raise a concern with the validity and reliability of the data. Also, while this was a three-step study with six experts included in the first stage (developing local guidelines for diagnosis, treatment, and follow-up of infants with CMPA in Turkey) and 410 pediatricians included in the second stage (a cross-sectional questionnaire-survey to determine pediatricians’ awareness and practice of CMPA in infants and children), only four members were included in the present Delphi panel, which allows a limited discussion. Third, lack of sensitivity analyses and exclusion of indirect costs and costs related to alterations in quality of life, behavior of infants, and general well-being of infants and their parents from the cost-analysis seems to be another limitation that may have caused under-estimation of relative cost-effectiveness of the formulae. Fourth, calculation of costs per local guidelines rather than real-life practice patterns is another limitation that, otherwise, would extend the knowledge achieved in the current study. Notwithstanding these limitations, the present expert panel provided practice patterns in the management of CMPA and an estimate of the associated costs, depending on the symptom profile at initial admission for the first time in Turkey.

Conclusions: In conclusion, in providing the first health economic data on CMPA in Turkey, the findings revealed that CMPA imposes a substantial burden on the Turkish healthcare system from both a payer perspective and societal perspective, and indicated clinical nutrition as a primary cost driver. Management of infants presenting with eczema, exclusively formula-fed infants, and first line use of AAF were associated with higher estimates for 2-year direct medical costs.