The impact of meeting or beating analysts' operating cash flow forecasts on a firm's cost of debt

Extant literature provides conflicting results with respect to the usefulness and accuracy of analysts' operating cash flow forecasts. Our study empirically examines the importance and influence of meeting or beating analysts' operating cash flow forecasts on a firm's cost of debt. Results indicate that firms meeting/beating analysts' cash flow forecasts have higher initial bond ratings as well as lower initial bond yields. Additionally, based upon an analysis of rating changes, firms meeting or beating cash flow forecasts have a higher probability of receiving a debt rating upgrade and a lower probability of a ratings downgrade compared to firms missing cash flow forecasts. A direct comparison of the importance of meeting/beating cash flow versus earnings benchmarks indicates that debt market participants appear to incrementally value both types of forecasts, and contrary to selected equity market findings, neither forecast subsumes the other for debt market participants.     

Screening,Market Signalling,and Capital Structure Theory

This paper develops an equilibrium model in which informational asymmetries about the qualities of products offered for sale are resolved through a mechanism which combines the signalling and costly screening approaches. The model is developed in the context of a capital market setting in which bondholders produce costly information about a firm's a priori imperfectly known earnings distribution and use this information in specifying a bond valuation schedule to the firm. Given this schedule, the firm's optimal choices of debt-equity ratio and debt maturity structure subsequently signal to prospective shareholders the relevant parameters of the firm's earnings distribution.     

Earnings Management During Antidumping Investigations in Europe: Sample‐Wide and Cross‐Sectional Evidence

This paper examines earnings management by EU firms that initiate an antidumping investigation. We first document economically and statistically significant income‐decreasing earnings management around the initiation of an antidumping investigation. We show that earnings management increases when accounting data directly affect the magnitude of the tariffs imposed in the trade investigation. We also find that earnings management decreases as the number of petitioning firms increases or as the distance between petitioning firms increases, suggesting free‐rider and coordination problems. We find that earnings management increases when the petition is directed at a country that imports more goods from the petitioning firm's home country, suggesting that retaliation threats affect incentives. We document that raising equity or debt financing moderates income‐decreasing earnings management, consistent with the idea that sample firms trade off capital market and regulatory considerations. Our results indicate that contemporary research methods can detect accruals‐based earnings management in settings in which the incentives for earnings management can be clearly identified.     

Development costs capitalization and debt financing

This study investigates debt market effects of research and development (R&D) costs capitalization, using a global sample of public bonds and private syndicated loans issued by public non‐financial firms. Firstly, we show that firms capitalize larger amounts of R&D in a year when they exhibit a propensity for issuing bonds, rather than borrowing funds privately from the syndicated loan market, in the subsequent year. Secondly, we provide evidence that capitalized R&D investments reduce the cost of debt. We infer that debt market participants are able to identify firms’ motives for R&D capitalization, as we find a reduction in the cost of debt only for those firms that do not show indications of employing R&D capitalization for earnings management reasons. Indeed, only for this sub‐sample of firms, the amount of capitalized R&D contributes positively to future earnings. We confirm that R&D capitalization is positively associated with audit fees and thus can be deemed to be a signaling device. Lastly, we find that it is the amount of R&D a firm is expected to capitalize and not the discretionary counterparts, which facilitates a firm's access to public debt markets, reduces bond and syndicated loan prices, and contributes to future benefits.     

Product market advertising and corporate bonds

Research shows that by enhancing visibility, advertising improves stock liquidity and returns. Unlike stock holders, bond holders may view advertising skeptically. Without proven effectiveness in improving revenues, large pre-interest advertising expenditures can be seen as eroding a firm's ability to meet its debt service obligations. We find that although greater advertising by a firm improves liquidity of its bonds in the market, it does not lower the firm's cost of debt. However, firms with ineffective advertising experience reduced bond market liquidity and a higher cost of debt. Without a real positive economic impact, advertising has little or no value for bond investors.     

INTRA-INDUSTRY EFFECTS OF BOND RATING ADJUSTMENTS

Several studies find that bond rating downgrades cause negative valuation effects. Other studies find that signals conveyed by earnings releases, earnings forecasts, bankruptcies, and stock offerings of individual firms can be transmitted to their corresponding industries. By combining the two sets of studies, we hypothesize that bond rating changes may contain relevant information not only about the firm, but also about the corresponding industry. We find significantly negative valuation effects for rating downgrades, which are transmitted throughout the industry. Furthermore, we find that intra-industry effects depend on particular characteristics of the bond downgrade, the downgraded firm, and industry rivals. Specifically, the negative intra-industry effects are more pronounced when (1) the downgraded firm experiences a more severe share price response to the bond rating downgrade, (2) the downgraded firm is dominant in the industry, (3) the downgraded firm is more closely related to its rivals in the industry, and (4) the downgrade is due to a deterioration in the firm's financial prospects.     

应计与真实盈余管理：替代抑或互补

基于中国转型经济特有的制度环境,考察应计与真实盈余管理之间的相互关系。结果表明,在中国市场上,应计与真实盈余管理之间存在"二元"关系,即替代关系和互补关系。具体而言,市场竞争压力在应计与真实盈余管理之间具有明显的成本比较优势,使得两者具有替代关系。控制利益、管制压力在应计与真实盈余管理之间不具有显著的成本比较优势,而是应计与真实盈余管理的驱动因素,使得两者具有互补关系。     

Managerial myopia and the unintended real consequences of conditional conservatism

We examine whether the demand for conditional conservatism produces unintended real consequences that are exacerbated by managerial incentives to report higher earnings. We document a robust positive association between conditional conservatism and real earnings management (REM), particularly for firms whose CEOs face greater compensation incentives and capital market incentives to report higher earnings. Using mediation analyses, we find that conservatism has a negative indirect relation with future returns via REM over the next 1–3 years. In additional tests, we find that the relation between conservatism and REM is attenuated for firms with higher debt-to-equity, which suggests that debtholders moderate the negative relation between conditional conservative reporting and REM. Our findings suggest that, in contrast to its monitoring benefit, conditional conservatism can exacerbate managerial myopia, resulting in negative consequences for future firm value.     

Earnings Predictability,Bond Ratings,and Bond Yields

We examine the role that earnings predictability plays in establishing a firm’s cost of debt capital by measuring its influence on establishing a new issue’s bond rating. In addition, we also examine the effects of earnings predictability on the initial pricing of the firm’s debt. Using new corporate bond issues from the period 1990–2000, our results indicate that the degree of predictability of a firm’s earnings is positively associated with a firm’s bond rating. Moreover, earnings predictability is also documented to be negatively associated with the offering yield. Importantly, bond rating classification accuracy is improved when specific measures of a firm’s earnings predictability are added to a robust model.JEL Classification:     

Real earnings management and the properties of analysts' forecasts

Prior literature generally finds analysts are able to identify and process complex financial information. However, research suggests that in certain settings, analysts struggle to fully incorporate into their forecasts all available information. We examine analysts' forecast properties in the face of a specific type of complex financial information: real earnings management (REM). First, we investigate the relation between measures of REM and analysts' forecast properties. We find REM measures are associated with greater forecast error and dispersion in the following year. However, REM measures, by definition, capture abnormal operating results, and thus include both firms engaging in manipulative REM as well as firms experiencing firm-specific economic shocks. Thus, we conduct cross-sectional tests of analysts' forecasts for firms with and without incentives to manipulate earnings. We find that firms with low incentives to engage in earnings management (i.e., firms most likely experiencing firm-specific economic shocks) generate the strongest positive relation between REM measures and the following year's analysts' forecast properties, suggesting analysts more fully incorporate the earnings implications of firms with high incentives (i.e., firms most likely engaging in manipulative REM). Our results are consistent across numerous REM proxies and indicators of earnings management incentives.     

Supply uncertainty of the bond investor base and the leverage of the firm

We examine the effect of the bond capital supply uncertainty of institutional investors (e.g., mutual bond funds and insurance companies) on the leverage of the firm using a novel data set. Our main finding is that the supply uncertainty of the firm's bond investor base — measured as (i) the average portfolio turnover, or (ii) the average flow volatility of investors holding the firm's bonds, or (iii) the prevalence of mutual funds among the firm's bondholders as opposed to insurance companies — has a negative and significant effect on the leverage of the firm. The supply uncertainty of the firm's bond investor base also has a negative and significant effect on the firm's probability of issuing bonds, and a positive and significant effect on the firm's probability of issuing equity and borrowing from banks. We take a multi-pronged approach to address potential endogeneity issues, including use of geography-based instruments and firm fixed effects, subsample analyses, and a placebo test. Our results highlight the fragility of access to the bond market for companies that depend on mutual funds with high turnover/ flow volatility as primary bond investors.     

THE MARKET REACTION TO STRAIGHT DEBT ISSUES: THE EFFECTS OF FREE CASH FLOW

In this paper we measure the market reaction to 937 straight debt issues between 1983 and 1993. We find a negative and significant market reaction to a straight debt announcement. In addition, we find that the market reaction to a straight debt issue is directly related to the issuing firm's level of existing cash and inversely related to the issuing firm's investment opportunities.     

UNIVERSITY OF GEORGIA ROUNDTABLE ON ENTERPRISE-WIDE RISK MANAGEMENT

For many years, MBA. students were taught that there was no good reason for a company that hedged a large currency exposure to trade at a higher P/E than an otherwise identical company that chose not to hedge. Corporate stockholders, simply by holding well‐diversified portfolios, were said to neutralize any effects of interest rate and currency risk on corporate values. And thus corporate efforts to manage risk were thought to be “redundant,” a waste of corporate resources on a function that was already accomplished by investors at far lower cost. But the theory underlying this “perfect markets” framework has changed in recent years to focus on ways that corporate risk management can add value. The academics and practitioners who participated in this roundtable began by discussing in general terms how risk management can be used to support a company's strategic plan and investment policy. At Merck, for example, where R&D spending was determined as a percentage of earnings, a policy of hedging foreign currency exposure to reduce earnings volatility was viewed as adding value by “protecting” the firm's R&D. The panelists also agreed that a well executed risk management policy can increase corporate debt capacity and, in so doing, reduce the cost of capital by lowering the likelihood of financial distress. For example, companies with debt covenants might undertake a risk management program to lower earnings volatility and ensure a minimum level of earnings for debt compliance purposes. But one of the clear messages of the roundtable is that risk management and earnings management are not the same thing, and that companies that view risk management as primarily a tool for smoothing reported earnings have lost sight of its real economic functions. Moreover, in making decisions to retain or transfer risks, companies should generally be guided by the principle of comparative advantage. That is, if there is an outside firm or investor willing to bear a particular risk at a lower price than the cost to the firm of managing that risk internally, then it makes sense to lay off that risk. In addition to the cost savings and higher return on capital promised by such an approach, a number of the panelists also pointed to a less tangible benefit of an enterprise‐wide risk management program—namely, a marked improvement of the internal corporate dialogue, leading to a better understanding of all the firm's risks and how they are affected by the interactions among the firm's business units.     

More than words: Can tone of consumer product reviews help predict firms’ fundamentals?

Although financial market participants are increasingly interested in the financial value of unstructured qualitative information regarding the prospects of a firm, empirical evidence remains sparse on the properties of qualitative content in consumer product reviews and their capital market implications. Using a broad sample of consumer reviews posted on Amazon.com, I examine whether the linguistic tone of aggregate consumer product reviews conveys information that is associated with firms’ sales, earnings, stock returns and risk. I find that aggregate review tone successfully predicts a firm's forthcoming quarterly sales. Moderating analyses show that this predictability is stronger for firms operating in a highly competitive environment. I further find that review tone predicts a firm's quarterly earnings surprises, abnormal stock returns and risk. A path analysis shows that the effect of review tone on stock prices is partially channeled through its effect on firms’ earnings. I finally find that negative review tone is more informative and useful than positive tone in predicting a firm's fundamentals. Importantly, these results hold after controlling for other review characteristics, including review rating, review volumeand review dispersion. Overall, my findings highlight the importance of considering the tone of consumer reviews when evaluating a firm's prospects and value.     

Effect of cash flow risk on corporate failures,and the moderating role of earnings management and abnormal compensation

In this study, we find that United States firms' average cash flow risk (CFR) shows a significantly increasing trend over the past four decades or so. This does not portend well considering the significance of cash flows in maintaining a firm's financial health and going concern status. The CFR also increases dramatically for firms approaching financial distress or bankruptcy, suggesting its important role in predicting a firm's failure. Empirically, we find that CFR has a strong positive effect on a firm's financial distress likelihood. We also find that the association between CFR and financial distress is negatively moderated in firms with high earnings management and abnormal compensation. The results suggest that managers in firms with high CFR are more likely to use heuristics in form of earnings management. Thus, supporting the upper echelons theory related to managers under performance pressure. Meanwhile, consistent with the notion in the agency theory that financial incentives serve as effective monitoring mechanisms, compensation packages can incentivize better risk management practices and decrease the likelihood of a firm's failure. Our findings are also robust to alternative definitions of a firm's failure: financial constraints, presumed debt covenant violation and legal bankruptcy filings.     

Asset specificity and conditional accounting conservatism

Asset specificity, the redeployability of an asset to alternative uses, is a key determinant of an asset's resale value. Asset specificity has a direct impact on a firm's ongoing fair value determination, bankruptcy risk, liquidation value, and abandonment option. We document a significant negative association between asset specificity and conditional conservatism. Further tests reveal that this inverse relation manifests as bad news being less quickly incorporated in earnings as asset specificity increases. We find no difference in the extent to which good news is delayed in earnings for firms conditional on asset specificity. In addition, the documented association is stronger when asset specificity arises from lower within‐industry acquisition activity. The association is also more pronounced for firms that are in less competitive industries, have institutional investors, have limited access to the public debt market, and/or have more unsecured debt. Our findings are noteworthy for regulators and researchers given the recent interest in the determinants of conservatism.     

Employee Costs of Corporate Bankruptcy

An employee's annual earnings fall by 13% in the first full calendar year after her firm's bankruptcy, and the present value of lost earnings from bankruptcy to six years following bankruptcy is 87% of pre-bankruptcy annual earnings. More worker earnings are lost in thin labor markets and among small firms. Ex ante compensating wage differentials for this “bankruptcy risk” are up to 2% of firm value for a firm whose credit rating falls from AA to BBB, comparable in magnitude to debt tax benefits. Thus, wage premia for expected costs of bankruptcy are sufficiently large to be an important consideration in capital structure decisions.     

Earnings Smoothing,Cash Flow Volatility,and CEO Cash Bonus

Prior studies generally relate managers’ decisions to smooth earnings to their desire to maximize their overall compensation and to smooth their consumption. However, earnings smoothing could also be driven by the firm's expected benefits from reporting a smooth earnings stream. Our paper provides empirical support for the latter explanation of earnings smoothing. Specifically, we find that while CEO bonus on average increases with earnings smoothing, the increase is larger when the firm's cash flow volatility is higher. Further, CEO bonus is shielded from the negative effects of lower earnings arising from the need to report a smoother earnings stream.     

Earnings Management Surrounding New Debt Issues

We examine whether firms manage earnings before issuing bonds to achieve a lower cost of borrowing. We find significant income‐increasing earnings management prior to bond offerings. We also find that firms that manage earnings upward issue debt at a lower cost, after controlling for various bond issuer and issue characteristics. Our results are consistent with studies that report earnings management around equity issuance. The results indicate that, like equity holders, bondholders fail to see through the inflated earnings numbers in pricing new debt.     

Do bond rating changes affect the information asymmetry of stock trading?

Using a sample of 279 upgrades and 310 downgrades from 1996 to 2004, we find that bond rating changes affect the information asymmetry of stock trading and other measures of information risk. Specifically, when a firm's bond rating is upgraded, its stock information asymmetry and its analysts' earnings forecast dispersion are significantly reduced, while the institutional equity holdings of its shares are significantly increased. The reverse is true for a downgrade. In addition, the degree of change in stock information asymmetry is positively associated with the magnitude of the bond rating changes.