Forecasting economic and financial variables with global VARs

This paper considers the problem of forecasting economic and financial variables across a large number of countries in the global economy. To this end a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model, previously estimated by Dees, di Mauro, Pesaran, and Smith (2007) and Dees, Holly, Pesaran, and Smith (2007) over the period 1979Q1–2003Q4, is used to generate out-of-sample forecasts one and four quarters ahead for real output, inflation, real equity prices, exchange rates and interest rates over the period 2004Q1–2005Q4. Forecasts are obtained for 134 variables from 26 regions, which are made up of 33 countries and cover about 90% of the world output. The forecasts are compared to typical benchmarks: univariate autoregressive and random walk models. Building on the forecast combination literature, the effects of model and estimation uncertainty on forecast outcomes are examined by pooling forecasts obtained from different GVAR models estimated over alternative sample periods. Given the size of the modelling problem, and the heterogeneity of the economies considered–industrialised, emerging, and less developed countries–as well as the very real likelihood of possibly multiple structural breaks, averaging forecasts across both models and windows makes a significant difference. Indeed, the double-averaged GVAR forecasts perform better than the benchmark competitors, especially for output, inflation and real equity prices.     

About “strategy” and “strategies” in supply management

This article addresses the context and content of a generic supply strategy and discusses its strategy-making process. Building mostly on fundamental strategic management theories, the authors explain the role of supply strategy in its managerial context. In so doing, some light is shed on the meaning and use of the terms “strategy” and “strategies”. Also, a practical conceptual framework for supply strategy formulation is provided. The generic checklist, built by segmenting supply management decisions, is intended to guide supply professionals in addressing strategic issues to create value to customers, avoiding confusion and optimising resource allocation.     

Is the financial system to blame for “low”UK investment?

The sluggishness of capital spending over the recovery has reinvigorated the debate over UK investment performance. It has frequently been alleged that the UK financial system holds back investment, while the institutions of continental European countries – particularly Germany – are more supportive of long-term spending by companies. In this article, Harold Rose examines the theoretical and factual basis for this line of argument. He warns policy-makers against acting to promote investment on the basis of arguments which are either not securely founded or which are directly contradicted by the evidence.     

Getting from “just-in-case” to “just-in-time”: Insights from a simple model

Many factory managers are hesitant about implementing a just-in-time system due to concern about the dip in productivity that occurs. Here, a simple analytic model is used to study the trade-off between disruption and learning/improvement on a production line. While simple, the model is shown to capture many of the effects of just-in-time mentioned in the literature.Using insights from the model, an attempt is made to identify those factors to which successful implementation of just-in-time is most sensitive.     

Repugnance for “menial jobs”

A man's sense of well-being and meaningfulness in work is not so much a matter of external circumstances—the kind of job he has—as it is of his deepdown belief that he is a worthy human being. If he lacks that, any job can seem dissatisfying and “menial.” Executives may suffer from this (or related behaviors) as much as assembly-line workers.     

Een toepassing van “importance sampling”

Summary This paper describes an experiment with “importance sampling”, to show how much reduction of the computation time and sample size can be achieved in comparison with the usual Monte Carlo method. A comparison is made between each of the three methods of “importance sampling” and the usual Monte Carlo method by the determination of the expression Of the three methods A, B and C the first one uses the shifted exponential distribution, the second one uses the gamma distribution, and the third one uses the exponential distribution with modified parameter. These three methods have all smaller variances, ranges and sample sizes than the usual Monte Carlo method. Their order of preference is A, B, C. With respect to computing time only the method A is significantly better. So only the method A is an improvement in respect of both the sample size and the computing time.     

“But we can't go back”

In 2004, a provincial cancer agency in Canada developed and implemented a provincewide Leadership Development Initiative (LDI) to enhance organizational leadership and relationships. Research using a quasi‐experimental survey design determined whether LDI implementation influenced the emotional health and leadership practices of LDI participants. An ethnographic approach (18 focus groups and 13 individual interviews) explored participants' perceptions of the LDI. This article presents qualitative findings that contribute to understanding the statistically significant findings of increasing levels of cynicism, emotional exhaustion, and burnout for most LDI participants. The LDI was regarded as a critical strategy for helping leaders grow and cope with change and help in changing organizational leadership culture to be more collaborative and inclusive. However, an organizational history of short‐lived, flavor‐of‐the‐month development initiatives and growing skepticism and disengagement by leaders represented in the themes of Catch‐22 and “there is no going back” contributes to understanding why these quantitative measures increased. Few studies have explored the hypothesis that real organizational development happens through a series of planned stages. In this study, leaders experienced escalating frustration because change was not seen to occur fast enough in “others” and reported that this was necessary before they would alter their own behavior. Leadership development programs in general need to reflect the reality that it takes considerable time, patience, and effort to effect fundamental change in leadership culture.     

“Want to” Versus “Have to”: Intrinsic and Extrinsic Motivators as Predictors of Compliance Behavior Intention

“Worthless,” “money burning,” or “black holes” is how media and professionals describe compliance practices today. Practitioners are unenthusiastic about control systems, codes of conducts, and systems for compliance management that are increasing in volume but not in effectiveness. In order to help practitioners clarify what actually makes employees comply with their compliance program, this study examines intrinsic and extrinsic motivators of 119 employees from procurement and sales. We contribute to the existing motivation literature, testing the self‐determination theory in low and high hierarchical levels. Our findings show that intrinsic motivators are more strongly and positively related to compliance intention on higher hierarchical levels than the lower ones. However, employees from higher hierarchies show overall less compliance intention than employees from lower hierarchies. © 2015 The Authors. Human Resource Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Heavy Constraints on a “Weightless World”?

A bstract .   Late 1990s claims of a shift toward a new economy in the United States and other developed economies were said to accelerate earlier trends reducing the material content of production. The shift toward a postindustrial services economy is said to have been accentuated by application of new information and communications technologies, dramatically reducing the material content of production. This offers the possibility for continuous economic expansion unconstrained by resources supply. This paper provides a critical analysis of these trends in relation to resource use by developed economies. It shows that trends toward a lower material content of production are occurring, and this has led to poor demand conditions for primary producers. Nevertheless, these trends fall well short of eliminating Western economies' dependence on key resources. This paper shows the changing role of resources in economic activity among developed economies.     

The “Big 3” Foundations and American Global Power

This article shows how the major foundations were extremely influential in America's rise to global hegemony over the past century. The leadership of these foundations was part of the eastern foreign policy establishment that initially mobilized support for a globalist, anti‐isolationist agenda and after World War II worked to construct a viable intellectual framework promoting American perspectives in world affairs. The development of foundation leadership in international relations took place in three phases with different emphases, aimed at softening the sharper edges of globalization and elite dominance to retain public legitimacy: 1) shifting American public opinion from the 1920s to the 1950s in favor of liberal internationalism and a strong national government, 2) creating an integrated global elite from the 1950s to the 1970s that could serve as conduits for American interests within the institutions of each nation, and 3) developing democratic reforms in response to neoliberalism after 1980 to gain legitimacy for the international order, in order to sustain the idea that the political and economic systems work for everyone. In this fashion, foundations were able publicly to espouse principles of self‐determination and economic development for every nation, even though their actions paved the way for the continuation of neocolonialism.