碳税的就业“双重红利”效应研究

碳税是减少碳排放的一种重要经济手段.文章通过分析碳税对就业的影响机制,构建了一个体现中国经济和就业结构特征的资源环境可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,研究碳税政策对劳动就业的短期和长期影响效应,验证中国是否存在产生就业“双重红利”的条件.结果表明,总体上而言中国就业需求趋于下降,但对不同就业群体的影响有所差异.假如在开征碳税的同时选择合适的碳税循环方式,就有可能实现就业的“双重红利”.     

基于可计算的一般均衡模型的我国碳税政策“双重红利”研究

建立了分析我国减少二氧化碳排放而征收碳税的可计算的一般均衡模型,分析碳税政策的双重红利。结果显示:为减少二氧化碳排放而征收碳税,对社会经济变量将造成一定的负面影响。保持财政中性,在征收碳税的时候,减少居民或者企业间接税,都可以在减少二氧化碳排放量的同时提高社会福利或者保持社会福利变化不大,实现碳税的双重红利。但是在保持财政中性,在征收碳税的同时减少企业所得税,虽然减少了二氧化碳排放量,居民的社会福利却有了更大程度的下降。     

Double Dividend with Involuntary Unemployment: Efficiency and Intergenerational Equity

This paper analyzes the double dividend and distributional issues within an overlapping generations model framework with involuntary unemployment. We characterize the necessary conditions needed to obtain a double dividend, when the revenue of the environmental tax is recycled by a variation of the labor tax rate. We show that an employment dividend may occur without any efficiency dividend and that the young generation is not always harmed by the fiscal reform, even without any intergenerational transfers. Therefore, three dividends (environmental, efficiency and intergenerational equity) can occur simultaneously.     

Green fiscal reform and employment: A survey

In the European debate an increase in employment is generally regarded as an important extra-dividend-in addition to improved environmental quality-from environmental taxes. The scope of this paper is to evaluate, going through the existing empirical literature, if-and to what degree-this result could be achieved through a green fiscal reform. A further goal of this paper is to assess which taxes are more efficient in terms of employment-creation when they are utilized for recycling back to the economy the revenue flowing from environmental taxes. This kind of exercise is largely different from the theoretical analysis of the double dividend issue. A large quantity of literature has grown during the recent years according to this approach, but this version of the double dividend theory will be disregarded in this paper.     

Consequences of Environmental Tax Reform for Unemployment and Welfare

We investigate the welfare effects of environmental tax reform, i.e. raising environmental taxes and using the proceeds to reduce distortionary taxes on labour. The framework of analysis is a small open economy with involuntary unemployment due to a rigid consumer wage. Environmental tax reform boosts not only environmental quality but also employment if substitution between labour and resources is easy, the production share of the fixed factor is large, and the initial tax rates on resources and profits are small. If the initial tax system is sub-optimal with a negligible tax on resources, profits rise as well.     

Energy Tax and Competition in Energy Efficiency: The Case of Consumer Durables

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the role of anenergy tax on technical improvements and on prices ofconsumer durables induced by strategic competition inenergy efficiency. If the gasoline tax is raised thisdoes in principle not affect the producers of carsbecause the motorist pays for it in terms of a highercost of using the car. This, however, affects the unitsales of car producers because of substitution towardsother modes of transportation. A second element ofreaction to energy price variation is an indirect oneand relates to the effect of energy prices ontechnology. Competition forces car producers todevelop more energy efficient cars in order to reducethe cost of using a car. This indirect effect canpartly offset the direct effect of higher energyprices on demand if it is profitable for theautomobile industry to engineer more energy efficientequipment. We will analyze the impact of an energy taxon energy efficiency and on the price of a durablegood. This will be done within the framework of aduopoly competing in prices and in the energyefficiency of its products. The government chooses awelfare maximizing energy tax as an incentive toinnovate. Then we will analyze a strategic two-stagedecision process in which the duopolists first decideabout energy efficiency and then compete in prices.     

策略性环境政策:环境税和减排补贴的比较分析

文章把战略性贸易政策模型扩展到环境领域,策略性环境政策认为政府有动机通过降低环境标准补贴出口企业,以达到利润转移的目的.文章分析了策略性环境政策中比较受忽视的一部分--环境技术补贴,本国政府结合使用环境税和减排补贴,我们验证了政府使用策略性环境政策的动机,得到了最优的污染排放税率,认为虽然环境政策仍旧不能消除生产带来的环境损害,但是环境技术补贴提高了本国的环境标准,企业会更少地遇到绿色壁垒报复.     

Environmental Policy, Tax Incidence, and the Cost of Public Funds

This paper studies under what conditions a double dividend may occur in the sense that both environmental quality and employment rise. A simple static general equilibrium model is employed in which tax policy faces the dual task of internalising a negative environmental externality and raising revenue to finance public consumption. The model features a clearing labour market with both labour demand and supply and a fixed factor of production (e.g. capital). Hence, we can study tax incidence and its effect on employment, environmental quality, and the marginal cost of public funds. It is shown for the case of an upward sloping labour supply curve and less than full tax shifting by employers that a shift towards greener preferences cannot yield a double dividend, even if the fixed factor is important. However, if labour supply curve bends backwards, more environmental concern confers a double dividend.     

基于CGE模型的环境税优惠政策的环保效应分析

通过建立一个CGE模型,并对该模型在存在和不存在环境税优惠政策两种场景下的社会产出、产品供应和社会福利状况进行模拟分析,考察环境税优惠政策的环保效应。结果表明,环境税的税收减免在长期内对社会福利的影响不大,但是,它却会对环境税的环境保护效果产生较大的负面影响。在使用税收减免工具时,政府要从社会福利和环境保护、能源使用等方面加以考虑,避免社会总福利的净损失。     

新能源汽车企业R&D投入与税收政策的关联关系

以2012—2014年中国17家新能源汽车上市公司的R&D投入和税收收入等数据为原始数据,将研发支出占营业收入比例作为参考序列,运用灰色关联度模型分析企业所得税、增值税和消费税3个主要税种与新能源汽车企业R&D投入的关联关系。结果表明:消费税与新能源汽车企业R&D投入的关联度最高,其次是所得税、增值税。最后,针对企业所得税、增值税和消费税分别提出了税收政策改革建议。     

Energy Taxes in the Netherlands: What are the Dividends?

In this paper the environmental and economic effects of the introduction of a unilateral energy tax in the Netherlands are analysed using an applied general equilibrium (AGE) model. The effects of a small user energy tax and a general energy tax are compared, while taking into account different tax recycling mechanisms. The model contains a great level of detail with respect to emissions and environmental indicators (greenhouse effect, acidification, eutrophication and waste), which is helpful for assessing environmental quality. The results show that the introduction of a small environmental tax reform not only improves the environment but also raises non-environmental welfare, which is due to an improvement of the efficiency of the tax structure.     

欧盟新能源产业政策的基本特征及启示

按照欧盟支持新能源产业政策发展的4个阶段,对其演变过程进行了分析;从科技及产业政策的一般构成要素出发,揭示了欧盟支持新能源产业发展政策的3个基本特征,即认清产业本质特征基础上的统一战略,以技术领先及社会机制构造为主的整体体系,创造符合自然生态的战略及政策实施环境和条件;并结合我国现有支持新能源产业发展政策及存在的问题,提出了若干建议和启示。     

欧盟发布战略能源技术计划欲抢占低碳能源技术制高点

文章分析了欧盟战略能源技术计划提出的背景,综述了计划确定的欧盟未来十年面临的技术挑战以及欧委会提出的四个方面具体措施建议。欧委会认为,欧盟在应对气候变化方面处于全球领先的地位,为保证欧盟减排政策目标的实现,欧盟应该抢占低碳能源技术的制高点,领导世界低碳能源技术的发展。为此,欧委会在广泛征求各方意见的基础上,提出了未来十年需要解决的关键技术,并提出了联合编制战略计划、采取具体措施保证计划有效实施、增加资源投入和建立统一而有差别的国际合作战略等四个方面的具体建议。     

河南省能源消费碳排放量演变及其与经济增长关系的研究

笔者计算了1978年~2009年河南省一次能源消耗的碳排放量。研究发现,1978年以来,河南省一次能源消耗的碳排放数量一直在增加。碳排放强度虽然逐渐下降,但人均碳足迹却不断上升,其中,煤炭消耗的碳排放量是总排放量的主要来源。河南省一次能源消耗的人均碳足迹与人均GDP的关系并不符合标准的环境库兹涅茨曲线,而是呈现出三次曲线关系,而碳排放强度与人均GDP之间呈则现出反比曲线关系。     

Environmental and Economic Effects of a Fall in Cereal Prices in the EU Internal Market: the Case of Denmark

Reform of the EuropeanCommon Agricultural Policy (the CAP) willreduce cereal prices in the Internal Marketwhile simultaneously increasing direct supportto farmers (Agenda 2000). This paper examinesthe possible effects of liberalisation of theCAP by modelling the effects of a 10 per centreduction in cereal prices combined withcompensation to farmers. We applied anintegrated modelling system suitable forestimating both the economic and environmentalconsequences of agricultural and environmentalpolicy measures and calculated the effects of a10 per cent fall in cereal prices on nitrogenloading of the Danish marine waters, on privateconsumption, GDP, the balance of payments, andemployment. The results indicate that pricereductions do not have significant effects onnitrogen loading relative to the 50 per centreduction target, since a 10 per cent reductionin cereal prices only leads to a 2.4 per centreduction in loading.     

税收优惠与FDI的时空分析——基于税收优惠信号理论的实证研究

文章从税收优惠信号理论的视角出发,研究我国税收优惠政策对外国直接投资(FDI)的影响。文章认为在我国市场化改革的不同阶段,以及在市场化进程的不同的地区,税收优惠政策对FDI的影响力大小是不同的。进而利用1986~2004年我国28个省市的面板数据进行了实证检验;扩展了Sylvie Demurger等(2002)所建立的地区优惠政策指数,以度量我国各省市的相对税收优惠程度;同时还利用樊纲和王小鲁(2001、2003、2004)编制的中国各地区市场化进程数据,将各省市分为市场化程度高的地区和市场化程度低的地区两组样本,分别进行了实证分析。结果表明,从整个样本区间(1986~2004年)来看,我国税收优惠政策是影响FDI的重要因素,但在1992年之后其影响力明显减弱,而且从横向来看,市场化程度越高的地区,税收优惠对FDI的影响力越弱。     

环境保护税对经济和碳排放影响研究——以江苏省为例

环境保护税的征收,有效减少了污染物排放,同时也会对经济和碳排放产生一定影响。通过构建包含环境保护税模块的CGE模型和江苏省2018年环境社会核算矩阵,模拟分析不同环境保护税税率对江苏省经济发展和碳排放的影响。研究发现:(1)征收环境保护税会给江苏省经济带来负面影响,但影响程度较小,当征收税率上升时,江苏省GDP、出口、省际调出等会下降,而居民和地方政府收入几乎没有变化。(2)环境保护税税率上升时,不仅会增加环境保护税收入,还会减少江苏省碳排放水平。(3)对于大多数行业,环境保护税税率上升会造成行业产出下降,但是对于污染物排放强度较低的行业,行业产出会上升,碳排放会增加。(4)为了更好地完成碳减排目标,建议江苏省可以适度增加环境保护税税率或加征碳税,对于污染物排放浓度较低的行业,可以采取补贴措施鼓励发展;对于污染物排放强度较高的行业,要推动转型升级,降低排放强度。     

激励资源开采业节能减排的资源税政策研究——以我国煤炭行业为例

煤炭是我国的基础能源和重要原料,在开采环节提高煤炭开采效率、有效回收地下呆滞资源、降低煤炭生产排放水平是我国能源经济健康持续发展的关键,也是能源税收政策调控的重点。从煤炭企业节能减排实践与资源税政策的矛盾出发,列示了促进煤炭企业节能减排和生态保护的资源税调控政策理论依据、政策依据及经验依据,设计了促进煤炭企业节能减排的资源税政策方案,期望对即将开展的煤炭资源税改革提供理论依据。     

经济发展与能源产业政策协调研究

我国经济的发展和能源的高耗低效增长方式加剧了能源供需矛盾,能源的供需紧张关系成为制约我国经济发展的瓶颈。笔者首先对我国能源产业的发展状况进行了回顾,然后对能源产业所面临的突出问题进行深入分析,针对能源产业结构现状,提出了增加国内能源供应,加强能源的国际合作,适时调整能源国际贸易政策与重视国际石油期货市场作用等政策性建议。     

Fiscal policy in Central and Eastern Europe with real time data: cyclicality,inertia and the role of EU accession

This article evaluates the cyclicality, inertia and effect of EU accession on fiscal policy in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) using a real time dataset. Budget balances are found to react in a stabilizing way to economic activity – every extra percentage point of economic growth is associated with an improvement in the budget balance of 0.3 percentage points of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – and there is no evidence of an asymmetric reaction to the cycle. Balances are much less inert than is typically found in Western Europe. However, there is clear evidence of a fiscal loosening in the run-up to EU accession. This began in 1999 in larger central European countries, often identified as ‘front-runners’. The other seven began loosening in 2001, after the Nice Treaty was agreed. For both sets of countries, this loosening cumulatively amounts to some 3% of GDP.