通货膨胀目标制的国际实践及其启示

一、通货膨胀目标制理论的内涵通货膨胀目标是由官方公开宣布未来一段时间内需要达到的通货膨胀目标或区间,明确承认低的、稳定的通货膨胀率是货币政策的首要长期目标(Bernanke,1999)。目标区间的宽度传达出中央银行对政策效应的不确定性进行评估的有用信息。在中央银行选择宣布目标区间的情况下.一个     

通货膨胀目标制理论与实证研究综述

通货膨胀目标制是20世纪90年代开始实施的一种新型的货币政策理论,各国金融经济学家们对这种新的理论框架开展了大量的理论和实证研究.通货膨胀目标制通过钉住通货膨胀可以减低通货膨胀预期、增强中央银行透明度和责任度,从而提高货币政策和中央银行的可信度,这对新兴市场和转型国家的宏观经济发展和货币政策目标的选择具有一定的借鉴意义.     

浅谈通货膨胀目标制的有效性

自1990年以来,通货膨胀目标制作为缓解恶性通货膨胀、降低通货膨胀率波动性的工具,逐渐为越来越多的国家采用。然而,围绕这一类货币政策有效性的争论一直没有停止。使用68个国家的数据重新检验这一命题,基本方法是应用动态面板数据固定效应模型。由于结果随数据、方法的改变而有所不同,因此认为没有决定性的证据表明通货膨胀目标制对于降低通货膨胀率有效。     

通货膨胀目标制：前景及问题

20世纪70年代我们所经历的通货膨胀及过去20年里货币政策理论的发展都使得中央银行家和学术界进一步意识到货币政策操作的局限性，越来越多的批评认为货币政策应该完全独立，或者货币政策目标应该是推动经济在其自然水平上的进一步增长。对这些目标的认识也伴随着对通货膨胀代价和低通货膨胀环境对经济长期发展及资源有效分配的必要性的体会而变得更加清晰。     

通货膨胀目标制的特点及其借鉴意义

20世纪90年代以来,在国际货币政策领域出现了一个新框架—通货膨胀目标制,在这种政策框架下,稳定物价成为中央银行货币政策的首要目标,中央银行根据通货膨胀预测值的变化进行政策操作,以引导通货膨胀预期向预定水平靠拢。通货膨胀是否得到有效控制是公众评价     

实行通货膨胀目标制的前提

货币政策战略的实施必须依赖一定的宏观经济金融环境，甚至包括一定政治环境的支持。虽然通货膨胀目标制并不要求货币供应量与价格之间具有强相关性，但其有效实施仍需要一定的条件（或者说前提），这些条件包括：把价格稳定作为货币政策的首要目标；中央银行的独立性；中央银行的透明度和责任性；稳定的财政状况；健全的金融体系；良好的通货膨胀预测能力；有效的货币政策工具；等等。上述条件大体可以归纳为三方面：制度要求、经济环境要求和操作要求。尽管在这些条件不满足的情况下，也可以建立起通货膨胀目标制的货币政策操作模式，但却会使货币政策效果大打折扣，甚至损害货币政策的可信度，给货币政策操作带来重大负面影响。     

通货膨胀目标制的国际实践及启示

本文对通货膨胀目标制的实施情况及实施条件进行分析,得出我国实行通货膨胀目标制的条件还不成熟。但是在制定货币政策时,我国可以借鉴通货膨胀目标制的单一货币政策目标,减少货币政策对经济周期的扰动,进而实现经济的稳定增长。     

论通货膨胀目标制在我国的可行性

最近一段时间，国内学术界建议我国采纳通货膨胀目标制的呼声越来越高，通货膨胀目标制也确有许多优越性。但从该制度实施的必要条件和我国当前的具体国情来分析，我国目前并不适合实行通货膨胀目标制。     

汇率目标制、货币目标制和通货膨胀目标制的比较及其在我国的应用的探讨

汇率目标制、货币目标制在各自的经济背景下都起到了稳定一国通货、稳定汇率从而稳定一国物价总水平、促进经济增长的作用。起始于20世纪80年代末期,通货膨胀目标制代替汇率目标制、货币目标制成为许多国家追逐长期价格稳定的一种货币政策新框架,在取得长期价格稳定和金融稳定上具有更多优点和灵活性。我国金融开放条件下货币政策调控面临国内货币需求不稳定,内部、外部经济不平衡,金融不平衡等问题,在货币目标制和汇率目标制难以实现货币政策有效调控的情况下,建议应对我国的货币政策调控方式做出调整,采用通货膨胀目标制的货币政策框架。     

加拿大的通货膨胀目标制及其启示

通货膨胀目标制是20世纪90年代开始实施的一种新型的货币政策，通货膨胀目标制成为货币政策领域最受人关注的焦点。本文以加拿大作为样本，分析了加拿大中央银行实施通货膨胀目标制的背景、目标设定以及实施情况，研究了通货膨胀目标制对中央银行的结构影响，实证检验了该政策的效果，最后得出相关结论。     

What measure of inflation should a developing country central bank target?

In closed or open economy models with complete markets, targeting core inflation enables monetary policy to maximize welfare by replicating the flexible price equilibrium. We analyze this result in the context of developing economies, where a large proportion of households are credit constrained and the share of food expenditures in total consumption expenditures is high. We develop an open economy model with incomplete financial markets to show that headline inflation targeting improves welfare outcomes. We also compute the optimal price index, which includes a positive weight on food prices but, unlike headline inflation, assigns zero weight to import prices.     

The impact of central bank independence on the performance of inflation targeting regimes

This paper examines the effects of inflation targeting on inflation in both advanced and emerging economies. We do not detect significant effects in advanced economies and only find small benefits in emerging economies, in line with previous studies. However, when we differentiate the impact of inflation targeting based on the degree of central bank independence, we find large effects in emerging economies with low central bank independence. Our results therefore suggest that central bank independence is not a prerequisite for countries to experience significant declines in inflation following the adoption of inflation targeting. Furthermore, we provide evidence that one channel through which inflation targeting lowers inflation more in countries with low central bank independence is the reduction of budget deficits following the adoption of an inflation target.     

Evaluating the effectiveness of exchange rate bands in reducing inflation

This paper contributes to the debate between the intermediate option and the corner solution through evaluating effectiveness of exchange rate bands (target zone and crawling band) in retaining inflation. I employ propensity score matching methods, based on the conditional independence assumption (CIA), to overcome the selection bias and problem of functional form in a sample covering observations from 88 countries from 1998 to 2005. The result suggests countries with target zones experienced significantly lower inflation rates than those with floating exchange rates. I use the sensitivity analysis for matching estimators, which highlights that the result is robust to specific failures of the CIA. Meanwhile, no significant evidence has been found that crawling bands offer a counter- inflationary benefit. It might be explained by the possibility that frequent exchange rate realignments could weaken the role of a nominal anchor and raise inflationary expectations.     

Monetary policy for emerging market economies: beyond inflation targeting

Monetary policymakers normally seek to achieve multiple objectives: for prices as well as real economic activity, sometimes for the composition of real activity as well as the aggregate, and often for aspects of the economy's international balance. The fact that monetary policy has only one basic instrument to use therefore creates both complexity and tensions among these objectives. Although inflation targeting represents a way of imposing a logical consistency on monetary policy, in the presence of multiple policy objectives inflation targeting undermines policy transparency and therefore makes accountability more difficult too. Because of the limitation of monetary policy's having only one instrument, but multiple objectives, fiscal policy and prudential supervision and regulation of financial institutions are also important for enabling emerging market economies to achieve their macroeconomic aims.     

Evaluating underlying inflation measures for Russia

We apply several tests to the underlying inflation measures used in practice by central banks and/or proposed in the academic literature in an attempt to find the best-performing indicators. We find that although there is no single best measure of underlying inflation, indicators calculated on the basis of dynamic factor models are generally among the best performers. These best performers not only outdid the simpler traditional underlying indicators (trimmed and exclusion-based measures) but also proved to be economically meaningful and interpretable.     

Futures prices and inflation information

This study examines the timing and speed with which inflation futures prices absorb inflation information. Results of the study show that inflation futures prices already reflect the expected inflation. Moreover, 71% of unexpected inflation has been reflected in futures prices about 25 business days prior to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) announcement, which usually coincides with the end of the CPI measurement period. Reaction to the remaining 29% occurs on and shortly after the CPI announcement date, especially on day 0 and day 2. The inflation risk premium that investors are willing to pay to avoid uncertain inflation is estimated to be 1.41% per annum.     

Testing the transparency benefits of inflation targeting: Evidence from private sector forecasts

Using inflation forecast data for 11 IT adoption countries, IT adoption is found to promote convergence in forecast errors, suggesting that it enhances transparency. This result, which is subjected to several robustness checks and found to be robust, supports Morris and Shin's (2002) contention that better public information is most beneficial for forecasters with bad private information. However, it does not support their hypothesis that better public information could make private forecasts less accurate.     

Inflation Announcements and Social Dynamics

We propose a new framework for understanding the effectiveness of central bank announcements when firms have heterogeneous inflation expectations. Expectations are updated through social dynamics and, with heterogeneity, not all firms choose to operate, putting downward pressure on realized inflation. Our model rationalizes why countries stuck at the zero lower bound have had a hard time increasing inflation without being aggressive. The same model also predicts that announcing an abrupt target to disinflate will cause inflation to undershoot the target, whereas announcing gradual targets will not. We present new empirical evidence that corroborates this prediction.     

Preparing for higher inflation: Portfolio solutions using U.S. equities

Investors have always been interested in reducing inflation risk in their portfolios. However, investors face different types of inflation than those measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Moreover, different asset classes can be used to hedge portfolio inflation. In this paper, we show how individual equities can be used to construct equity portfolios sensitive to customized inflation targets. We illustrate portfolios for three types of inflation: US headline CPI, Forbes Cost of Living Extremely Well Index, and the US Medical Care Price Index. We also show how alternative weighting schemes, such as minimum volatility and maximum inflation beta, can be used to construct inflation‐hedged portfolios.     

Are REITs inflation hedges?

This study investigates the relationship between returns on Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and anticipated inflation. It was motivated by the contradictory findings in the literature concerning the inflation-hedging characteristics of financial and real assets. We employ the methodology developed by Fama and Schwert, which represents a generalization of the Fisher equation. Two different measures of anticipated inflation were used to estimate the regression equations. The results show that REITs generally tend to behave like equities with respect to their hedging characteristics, regardless of how inflation expectations are measured. When we used a survey measure of anticipated inflation, however, we found some evidence that REITs are partial hedges against anticipated inflation.