Excess Returns, Inflation and the Efficiency of the Housing Market

This paper examines the influence that unexpected inflation has on the reported time pattern in housing returns. Two alternative models of expected inflation are used to study its effect: a rational expectations model and an adaptive expectations model. Findings indicate that both estimates of unexpected inflation are positively correlated with excess returns to housing. If inflation expectations are assumed to have been adaptive during the 1970s and early 1980s, serial correlation in the excess returns is shown to be greatly diminished when adjusted to control for unexpected inflation. However, substantial inertia in the pattern of the adjusted return series remains.     

Forecasting the Discounts of Market Prices from Appraised Values for Real Estate Limited Partnerships

A vexing problem for the appraisal industry has been estimating an appropriate discount for the value of real estate limited partnerships (RELPs) relative to their appraised value. This research develops a linear regression model that explains over 80% of the cross-sectional variation in discounts across 60 RELPs using characteristics of each partnership. Among a holdout sample of 41 RELPs, the model provides forecasts of discounts that are superior to assuming no discount or applying a mean discount to all partnerships. Discounts are greatest for RELPs with low current yields, low leverage and high trading ranges for their market prices.     

Social Returns to Housing and Other Fixed Capital

This paper addresses the efficiency of the allocation of the capital stock between housing and other types of private capital. Using national income data from 1929 to 1986 the returns to housing capital relative to all other private fixed capital are computed. The analysis indicates that the real returns to capital have been much smaller and much more variable for housing than for non-housing fixed capital in the U.S. economy.     

上海市住宅价格影响因素及未来走势研究

本文采用实证分析方法,以2000~2009年上海市宏观经济数据为样本选取上海市33个经济社会指标,通过主成分分析得到影响上海市商品住宅价格的4个主成分并以指标载荷得分为其命名,即:需求因素,供给因素,市场因素,土地因素。选取主成分代表指标,通过多元回归方法求出其与上海市商品住宅价格的回归方程,并以此为依据进行预测分析。分析结果显示,需求因素为影响上海市住宅房价的最主要因素,供求矛盾推动了上海市商品住宅价格的持续走高,并在未来一段时间仍然保持上升趋势。文章最后从政府监管和需求者角度分别给出了相关建议。     

Housing Policy Implementation Effect Analysis in the Macro-control Round of Housing Market

为了解政府对住房市场宏观调控采取政策的执行效果,采用定性分析的方法对住房市场宏观调控中的金融、房贷和土地政策进行分析.在梳理总结各类政策的基础上,分析政策出台规律、政策实施效果以及造成市场现状的根源及深层次原因.结合政策特点和问题根源,提出相应的政策建议改善住房市场调控现状,建立住房市场宏观调控的长效机制.     

Risk and Return within the Single-Family Housing Market

The trade-off between risk and return in equity markets is well established. This paper examines the existence of the same trade-off in the single-family housing market. That market is dominated by homeowners, who constitute about two-thirds of U.S. households. For them the choice about how much housing and what house to buy is a joint consumption-investment decision. Furthermore, owner-occupied housing is by nature a lumpy investment whose risk cannot be completely diversified. Does this consumption-investment link negate the risk-return trade-off within the single-family housing market? Theory suggests the link still holds. This paper supplies empirical evidence in support of that theoretical result.     

Forecasting Market Size and Market Growth Rates for New Products

How many times is a forecast of a technological development correct? According to many experienced managers, it almost never is. Then what good is a forecast? A forecast helps make important innovation decisions, according to Brian C. Twiss. He argues that precision in forecasting a technological development is seldom needed for purposes of long-term planning and that any innovation so marginal that small errors in forecasting will make a big difference should not be considered anyway. Twiss suggests that technology forecasting can be of real value once it is accepted that it is essentially concerned with modeling human behavior. This is the unexpected viewpoint that Twiss presents in this article. He explains how to develop and how to use a technology forecast in long-range planning.     

南京市房建工程交易市场结构及温饱度分析

文章旨在考察南京房建工程交易市场的市场结构与企业温饱度情况.利用南京市房建工程交易市场的交易数据,从市场供需、市场集中度、各资质级别企业比例结构三个方面分析了交易市场结构.根据有关规定和相应的假设,推算了企业市场规模基本额,并在此基础上分析了各资质等级企业群的市场温饱度.分析结果表明,南京房建工程交易市场是一个集中度较低,供求关系不平衡,各资质等级企业比例结构不合理的市场结构;交易市场中各资质等级企业群的市场温饱度偏低.     

Appraisal-Based Real Estate Returns under Alternative Market Regimes

In this article we use Monte Carlo simulation to study the statistical properties of real estate returns. We set up a model where transactions prices are noisy signals of true prices. We then consider a number of appraisal rules, derived from Bayesian and non-Bayesian theory, to estimate the current true price and rate of return. The class of exponential smoothing and Kalman filter rules perform well at both the disaggregate (returns on an individual property) and aggregate (returns on a real property portfolio) levels. A special case of exponential smoothing (α= 1.0) places all weight on current market data. Since this case eliminates smoothing, our results suggest that appraisers should place all weight on current data (no weight on past data) provided that they want to estimate returns rather than values. However, these results should be used with caution if sales prices are very noisy.     

The Effect of Regional Growth Characteristics on Regional Housing Prices

As contrasted with strictly national housing reports, this article highlights the regional variations in population growth patterns and recently built owner-occupied housing as a means of determining single-family housing price components (i.e., developed lot values, homebuilding costs, and builder's profit and overhead) by region. The assertion that escalating lot costs and increases in new housing costs will limit the demand for single-family housing is challenged on a national basis and treated individually for the West, Northeast, South, and North Central Regions of the country.     

The Housing Market and Real Estate Brokers

The major development in this paper concerns the failure, in earlier studies, to consider interaction between alternative methods of arranging sales in the housing market. A seller may market a house by direct negotiations with buyers, without the intermediation of real estate brokers, or by listing the house with a broker. A rational seller would choose the option which offers the higher expected return on the house. In a sequence of models we argue that the seller's option of a method of sale induces competitive pressure in the choice of the commission rate by the broker. We also consider the split rate in a multiple listing system, ease of entry of brokers and the cartel hypothesis as applied to brokers. We conclude that the competitive pressure of direct negotiations between sellers and buyers, relative free entry of brokers and the inappropri-ateness of the cartel hypothesis cast serious doubt about a general consensus of opinion that the brokerage system is characterized by price fixing, excessive commissions and excessive marketing costs.     

Uses and Abuses of Residential Building Permits in Forecasting Private Housing Starts

This paper examines the commonly held view that the Census Bureau's monthly series for residential building permits issued is a leading indicator of the series for private housing starts. A close study of the residential building permits and housing starts series shows that on a quarterly basis the series are coincident, with cyclical peaks and troughts in the seasonally adjusted data occurring in the same period. On the monthly basis for the period 1960 through 1976, the peaks and troughs in the building permits series have usually followed those in the housing starts series. Also, evidence presented in the paper shows that monthly changes in the residential building permits series are not highly correlated with changes in the housing starts series one to five months in the future. Finally, the analysis suggests that changes in the backlog of unused residential building permits are not indicative of future changes in the rate of housing starts. The major implication of these results is that permits data offer little or no information about future month-to-month changes in the rate of housing starts. However, because the building permits series is less irregular than the housing starts series and the cyclical movements of the series are basically the same, permits data can be used to identify irregular monthly movements in the starts series.     

The Impact of Growth Control Regulations on Housing Prices in California*

This paper examines the impact of growth controls on the price of new single-family homes. Four types of growth controls are discussed and each is found to have a significantly different impact on housing prices. Regulations that are imposed by one locality only are first compared to those that are imposed by a locality whose neighbors also control growth. In California, increases in house prices in communities with only local growth controls cannot be distinguished from communities that do not control growth. However, the 1969 to 1976 housing price increase in growth control jurisdictions located in extensively regulated housing markets is significantly higher than in local-only or no-control jurisdictions. In addition, controls that restrict the rate of development are compared to those that specify the quality of development. In the extensively regulated San Francisco Bay area, the 1969 to 1976 housing price increase was 35% higher in rate-controlled communities and 20% higher in quality-controlled communities than in no-control communities.     

近期国内成品油价格走势分析

8月份,为了贯彻落实国务院关于整顿市场秩序的规定和国家经贸委提出的推动成品油价格到位的指示精神,石油与石化两大集团在保持低原油加工量的同时,继续开展联手推价工作;南海休渔期的结束和秋收季节的即将来临,导致农业、渔业用油量增加,国内柴油市场出现复苏迹象;加之市场人士推测国家即将出台有利于提高油品价格的成品油定价新机制,这些因素共同促使国内成品油市场好转。至下旬,大部分地区执行价格已基本上推到位,销量亦有不同程度的增加。从区域差异看,东北、西北大部分地区到位情况较好,销售平稳,华北、华东、中原、西南等地价格波动较大;从品种方面看,柴油普遍好于汽油。     

Real Estate Brokers, Nonprice Competition and the Housing Market

Given a fixed commission rate and easy entry, economic profits must be competed away on some nonprice margin in the real estate brokerage market. This paper focuses on nonprice competition in the level or quality of services offered buyers and sellers in the market, examining the equilibrium adjustment process, comparative static predictions and efficiency implications. In contrast with earlier studies focusing on wasteful advertising, this paper demonstrates that higher commission rates can either increase or decrease deadweight loss, depending upon how broker services affect buyer and seller transaction costs.     

当前炼焦煤市场行情及未来走势分析

分析了当前我国炼焦煤市场行情以及影响未来炼焦煤需求的影响因素,综合分析得出山西省煤炭产业政策是影响我国炼焦煤供应的关键因素,对我国炼焦煤进口格局与前景进行了展望。     

Rational Expectations, Market Fundamentals and Housing Price Volatility

This paper derives a forward-looking rational expectations house price model and empirically tests its ability to explain short-run fluctuations in real house prices. A novel approach to proxying the imputed rents of owner-occupied housing, as a function of observable housing market fundamentals, is combined with a housing market arbitrage relation to derive a present value model for real house prices. Tests of the rational expectations, nonlinear cross-equation restrictions reject the joint null hypothesis of rational expectations and the asset-based housing price model for quarterly, single-detached house prices in the city of Vancouver, British Columbia from 1979–1991. The model fails to fully capture observed house price dynamics in two real estate booms but tracks real house prices well in less volatile times, suggesting that prices may temporarily deviate from fundamental values in real estate price cycles.     

Forecasting Using Long-Order Autoregressive Processes: An Example Using Housing Starts

A long autoregressive (AR) modeling procedure for monthly U.S. housing starts data is considered. Neither differencing to remove the trend, nor differencing to remove the seasonal component is required in this method. The model is fitted by a Householder transformation-Akaike AIC criterion algorithm. Forecast performance is compared to that obtained by the Box-Jenkins ARIMA method. The prediction error variance of the long AR model method tends to be smaller than the prediction error variance of the Box-Jenkins model method. The long AR method is well suited for housing market time-series which are characterized by both strong seasonal and slowly changing trend components.     

Regressive Interest Rate Expectations and Mortgage Instrument Choice in the United Kingdom Housing Market

The paper considers the choice of mortgage instrument when the rate of interest is fixed for a short duration, with reversion to a variable (bullet) rate mortgage contract. The research is the first direct test for regressive interest rate expectations using United Kingdom data while testing for wealth and portfolio effects. The econometric modeling uses a variety of nonparametric and parametric techniques to control for classification error in the dependent variable. There is evidence that households adopt regressive interest rate expectations. The lack of statistical significance of wealth and portfolio effects confirms the short run cash flow perspective of United Kingdom mortgage choices.