城市轨道交通客流短时预测

城市轨道交通客流计划是其运营编组设计的基础,根据城市轨道交通短时预测的实时断面客流量进行运营编组设计,更贴近客流的实际情况,具有实时性、灵活性和快速响应性等优点.在此基础上进行城市轨道交通运营编组设计,更能适应客流量的实时变化.     

杭州地铁客流特征分析与客流预测

通过对杭州地铁2019年1月1日到2019年1月25日的地铁刷卡数据进行分析,根据进出站高峰小时系数和站点位置将80个站点分为居住、工作、交通场站和混合类型四类。不同类型的车站早高峰晚高峰进出站高峰小时系数均不相同。对不同地铁线路的换乘量进行分析发现3号线换乘量比例最高,占其出站人数的77.7%。使用机器学习方法(随机森林和lightgbm)对不同站点每小时的进出站人数进行预测,平均相对误差均值为9.0%。表现出较强的可预测性。     

基于LM-BP算法的轨道交通客流短时预测

BP神经网络是当前比较常用的人工神经网络,针对BP神经网络存在易陷入局部极小值、收敛速度慢等缺陷,将LM算法引入到BP神经网络中,以改进BP神经网络在预测时的训练过程,并利用轨道交通客流的时间序列对其有效性进行验证,结果证明该方法对轨道交通客流的短时预测有着更高的准确度和精度。     

我国外汇储备的现状及发展预测分析

中国人民银行今日公布的数据显示,截至2014年3月末,国家外汇储备余额为3.95万亿美元,较2013年末增长了1300亿美元。我国外汇储备余额居世界第一。如此之多的外汇储备,其来源、结构以及带来的影响,已经成为大家关注的焦点。本文在分析我国外汇储备的现状的同时,运用线性回归分析方法对我国未来三年的我国外汇储备做出预测。并针对我国高额外汇储备给我国经济带来的负面影响,提出了合理建议。     

基于回归BP神经网络的短期负荷预测

负荷的形成受多方面因素的影响,在建立短期负荷预测模型时,需要综合考虑多种因素.同时,负荷是一种时间序列信号,目前的数据能够对以后的数据产生重要的影响,所以文章采用回归BP神经网络模型应用于短期负荷预测.实例计算表明,该方法有效,预测精度比常规方法高,收敛性好,运算速度快.     

基于回归BP神经网络的短期负荷预测

负荷的形成受多方面因素的影响,在建立短期负荷预测模型时,需要综合考虑多种因素。同时,负荷是一种时间序列信号,目前的数据能够对以后的数据产生重要的影响,所以文章采用回归BP神经网络模型应用于短期负荷预测。实例计算表明,该方法有效,预测精度比常规方法高,收敛性好,运算速度快。     

基于MATLAB的回归分析模型在经济预测分析中的应用

经济预测是企业决策的前提与基础，MATLAB具有强大的数据处理和分析功能，可以方便、快捷、准确、直观地进行回归数学建模和预测分析。本文通过案例分析，运用MATLAB统计工具箱中提供的命令regress建立回归分析数学模型，并进行回归预测分析，取得很好的效果。     

普通高校学费模型的建立与预测

目前,高等学校收取学费已为社会普遍接受。但是近年来学费水平日益飞涨,成为全国城乡居民关注的热点。本文在分析高校学费影响因素的基础上,建立了普通高校学费的回归模型,对未来三年的学费水平进行了区间估计,并提出了一些针对性的建议。     

New evidence on the efficiency of Italian airports: A bootstrapped DEA analysis

A bootstrapped DEA procedure is used to estimate technical efficiency of 18 Italian airports during the period 2000-2004. Departing from previous studies, we separate the efficiency related to ability to manage airside activities (operational) from that related to the management of all business activities (financial). In general, Italian airports operate at poor levels of efficiency, with slightly better performance in terms of their financial activities. In the current study, selected intrinsic and environmental characteristics are considered as possible drivers of Italian airport performance. In particular, we found that: (i) the airport dimension does not allows for operational efficiency advantages, (ii) on the other hand, the airport dimension allows for financial efficiency advantages for the case of hubs and disadvantages for the case of the smallest airports (iii) the type(s) of concession agreement(s) might be considered as important source of technical efficiency differentials for those airports running marginal commercial activities; (iv) the introduction of a dual-till price cap regulation might create incentives which lead to the increase of financial efficiency at the detriment of the operational performance. Lastly, the development of a second hub (Milano Malpensa), has negatively affected the performance of the country’s national hub (Roma Fiumicino).     

A stochastic frontier analysis to estimate the relative efficiency of Spanish airports

There exists a common belief among researchers and regional policy makers that the actual central system of Aeropuertos Españoles y Navegación Aérea (AENA) should be changed to one more decentralized where airport managers could have more autonomy. The main objective of this article is to evaluate the efficiency of the Spanish airports using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation to estimate a stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) model. Our results show the existence of a significant level of inefficiency in airport operations. Additionally, we provide efficient marginal cost estimates for each airport which also cast some doubts about the current pricing practices.     

江苏省民航机场集疏运体系研究

随着长三角经济发展和对外交流增多,发展航空业已成为增加地区竞争力的重要方面,我省周边地区航空发展开始呈现出激烈竞争的趋势。面对激烈的市场竞争,我省民航业也在积极应对。民航作为综合运输方式中的高端运输方式,其运输服务过程无法独立完成,而是需要其他运输方式共同参与,即需要公路或轨道交通等方式为其集疏运,因此,一个良好的综合运输体系将为民航业快速发展提供保障。长期以来,由于各种运输分属不同的管理部门,存在一定条块分割、相关规划建设不协调、管理过程中沟通不够等现象,一定程度上制约了我省民航业的发展。根据落实科学发展观的要求,构筑协调发展的机场综合运输体系已成为今后我省民航发展的重点。本次研究结合相关运输设施规划,立足于地面综合运输,以南京禄口国际机场为例,从集疏运基础设施布局和运营组织两个层面,构筑衔接通畅的机场集疏运体系。     

Market structure,countervailing power and price discrimination: The case of airports

A number of interesting policy questions have arisen regarding airport landing fees. For example, what is the impact of joint ownership of airports? Does airline countervailing power stop airports raising fees? Should airports be prohibited, as an EU directive intends, from charging differential input prices to airlines? We set out a model of upstream airports and downstream airlines with varying countervailing power and pricing structures. Our major findings are: (a) an increase in upstream concentration or in the degree of differentiation between airports always increases the landing fee; (b) the effect of countervailing power, via an increase in downstream concentration, lowers landing fees, but typically does not pass through to consumers; (c) with Cournot competition, uniform landing fees are always higher than discriminatory fees.     

Internalization of congestion at US hub airports

I study delays and congestion patterns in US hub airports during periods of high flight volume. I find that these periods are longer when the share of flights operated by the hub airline is greater, and these longer periods exhibit shorter delays. These results lend support to recent theoretical work on congestion, implying that hub-airlines take into account the impact of their scheduling decisions on the congestion that they bear. The results may suggest that congestion management solutions implemented at hub airports dominated by one airline could have only a limited impact on congestion in general.     

机场特许经营权运作的博弈分析

国际航空港不仅是现代交通运输业的象征,而且还是世界城市经济发展的重要门户.对于机场特许经营问题国内学者多是以法学的视角给予阐述和剖析,本文试图从微观经济学博弈论的分析框架入手,结合上海浦东国际机场开展特许经营的实践活动,尝试性地做出一个新的解释.     

Forecasting third-party mobile payments with implications for customer flow prediction

Forecasting customer flow is key for retailers in making daily operational decisions, but small retailers often lack the resources to obtain such forecasts. Rather than forecasting stores’ total customer flows, this research utilizes emerging third-party mobile payment data to provide participating stores with a value-added service by forecasting their share of daily customer flows. These customer transactions using mobile payments can then be utilized further to derive retailers’ total customer flows indirectly, thereby overcoming the constraints that small retailers face. We propose a third-party mobile-payment-platform centered daily mobile payments forecasting solution based on an extension of the newly-developed Gradient Boosting Regression Tree (GBRT) method which can generate multi-step forecasts for many stores concurrently. Using empirical forecasting experiments with thousands of time series, we show that GBRT, together with a strategy for multi-period-ahead forecasting, provides more accurate forecasts than established benchmarks. Pooling data from the platform across stores leads to benefits relative to analyzing the data individually, thus demonstrating the value of this machine learning application.     

Time for carbon neutrality and other emission reduction measures at European airports

Since 2009, one out of five European airports participate in carbon dioxide (CO₂) reduction programmes, although only 8% of them are certified as CO₂ neutral. This study aims to examine empirically internal as well as external factors of importance for airport participation in emission reduction programmes at different levels of involvement. Estimates of the Cox proportional hazard model based on almost 600 airports for the period 2009 to 2017 reveal that the likelihood and timing of participation increase with the size of the airport (number of passengers), independent of level of commitment. Performance (growth in number of passengers) and if the airport is part of a group are crucial for the advanced levels of the programme. Environmental progress at the country level is also a significant predictor, most distinctly represented by renewable electricity generation, whereas airports serving as hubs for low‐cost airlines are less likely to enter the carbon reduction programmes.     

基于现金流量管理的企业财务状况分析

通过现金流量分析,可以知道企业是如何产生现金以及如何使用现金的。而现金流量表是通过现金的流入与流出,反映企业在一定时期内的经营活动、投资活动和筹资活动的会计报表。文章通过对现金的流入与流出二者综合研究,分析企业当前财务状况,及早防范企业财务风险。