100 Jahre Federal Reserve System

The Federal Reserve System (Fed) was created in December 1913 when the Federal Reserve Act was signed. Since then, the Fed has become the most influential central bank in the world. This article gives an overview of the Fed’s history and its structure before evaluating the Fed’s monetary policy over the last 100 years. The main findings are that the last 100 years have shown that a central bank is useful for solving economic problems but that sometimes the central bank has created its own problems.     

Federal Reserve and private forecasts of growth in investment

This study examines the Federal Reserve and private forecasts of growth in both business and residential investment for 1983-2004 and reaches four main conclusions: First, in support of the asymmetric information hypothesis, the shorter (longer) horizon Federal Reserve forecasts of growth in business (residential) investment contain useful predictive information beyond that included in private forecasts. Second, the Federal Reserve forecasts are all biased. The same is true for the private forecasts of growth in residential (but not entirely for the forecasts of growth in business) investment. Third, the private forecasts overall do better than those of the Federal Reserve in outperforming the univariate forecasts. Fourth, the Federal Reserve and private forecasts of growth in business (residential) investment, while directionally accurate, imply symmetric (asymmetric) loss. We conclude this study by discussing the usefulness of these forecasts.     

Keynote Speech: Federal Reserve Policy in the Post-Crisis Period

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) engaged in a series of extraordinary monetary policy actions in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2008 to support economic activity in the United States. Interest rates were lowered to their effective lower bound and the Fed’s balance sheet was greatly expanded through a series of large-scale asset purchase programs. As the U.S. economy has recovered, “normalization” of monetary policy (which will be data-dependent) has drawn closer. This article reviews some factors that may impact the post-normalization course of monetary policy.     

Foreign‐Exchange Trading Volume and Federal Reserve Intervention

We find a large positive correlation between daily trading volume in currency futures markets and foreign‐exchange intervention by the Federal Reserve over the period 1979 to 1996. Neither contemporaneous nor predicted volatility can fully account for the increases in trading activity. Whether or not the intervention operation is publicly reported appears to be an important determinant of trading volume. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:851?860, 2001     

Institutional lending to knowledge-based businesses

Knowledge-based businesses (KBBs) are vital to economic development and revitalization in many regions, especially in areas that have experienced a decline in traditional industries. While much attention has been devoted to various aspects of traditional small firm financing, there is a paucity of empirical research to explain how new knowledge-based firms are externally financed. The current study researches institutional strategies, structures and risk assessment practices of chartered banks and government agencies in a peripheral region of Canada. It examines the extent to which these institutions have modified traditional lending approaches and practices to meet the needs of knowledge-based firms. The study explores the existence of institutional lending cultures through an empirical investigation of risk assessment practices employed by account managers.Two business proposals, one for a knowledge-based firm and one for a more traditional firm, were presented to account managers in chartered banks and government agencies for initial review and subsequent due diligence and risk assessment. Verbal protocols and interview data obtained at three stages of the due diligence process were analyzed using standard multivariate techniques and consensus analysis (CA). CA, a tool developed to measure cultural agreement in cognitive anthropology, was employed to assess the level of agreement among lenders with respect to risk assessment.Overall, the study findings confirm that specialized strategies, structures and processes for lending to KBBs are only partially developed, are still evolving and are considerably diverse in both the banking and government sectors. Furthermore, the level of agreement among lenders develops during the course of the due diligence process. Results confirm consensus and the existence of a lending culture sensitive to the needs of KBBs among a select but important subgroup, knowledge-based lending specialists. The paper discusses the implications of these findings for researchers, entrepreneurs in search of capital and policy makers seeking to develop new business opportunities for regional economic development.     

Bank lending,deposits and risk-taking in times of crisis: A panel analysis of Islamic and conventional banks

In this study, we conduct a panel analysis of Islamic and conventional banks to ascertain whether Islamic banks are able to sustain financing supply and whether its growth is higher than conventional bank lending growth in times of stress. For concreteness, we also assess whether the sustained financing supply of Islamic banks is justified by a concomitant increase in Islamic deposit growth and is not linked to excessive risk taking. Utilizing a panel sample of 25 Islamic banks and 114 conventional banks from 10 dual-banking countries, we observe sustained financing supply by Islamic banks but significant reduction in the lending growth by conventional banks during the crisis period. The results further suggest that the financing growth of Islamic banks is higher than the lending growth of conventional banks during the crisis period. However, we find no clear evidence that the deposit growth of Islamic banks behaves differently during the period. Finally, there is no indication to suggest that Islamic banks exhibit excessive risk taking in times of stress. Our results contribute to the evidence supporting the contributive role of the Islamic banking system to financial and economic stability.     

密切相关--美联储加息节奏与人民币升值预期的思考

近期外汇市场伴随对人民币升：值预期的猜测,出现日元价格变化扩大趋势,进而使美元和欧元汇率也有波折。同时国内外金融市场对于人民币升值的预期再掀高潮,尽管我国央行以及决策官员明确表述了人民币汇率形成机制的进程与问题,但是市场炒作人民币的势头仍难以抑制。仔细分析这些现象的背景,似乎与美国官员近期对人民币问题的言论有关,     

Further Evidence on the Firm-Size Relation and Stock Market Responses to Changes in Federal Reserve Margin Levels

The virtually monotonic firm-size/price-reactions observed following changes in U.S. Federal Reserve market margin requirements over the post-1962 period provide dramatic new evidence in support of the hypothesis that changes in margin levels are associated with changes in security return behavior. Variance tests of the 1970 and 1971 margin decreases also produce evidence consistent with this hypothesis.     

Tapering talk: The impact of expectations of reduced Federal Reserve security purchases on emerging markets

In May 2013, Federal Reserve officials first began to talk of the possibility of tapering their security purchases. This “tapering talk” had a large negative impact on the exchange rate and financial markets in emerging markets. In this paper, we analyze who was hit and why. We find that countries with larger and more liquid markets and larger inflows of capital in prior years experienced more pressure on their exchange rate, foreign reserves, and equity prices. We interpret this as investors being able to rebalance their portfolios more easily when the target country has a large and liquid financial market.     

Federal Reserve Independence in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis: Should We Be Worried?

The extraordinary circumstances of the past few years have led to extraordinary responses by the Federal Reserve and other central banks. These ventures into uncharted waters have heightened political scrutiny to the point of raising concern about future independence. In discussing independence of the Federal Reserve, it is important to separate its regulatory and supervisory functions from its monetary policy function. It is the latter in which the question of independence is most important. History indicates that independent monetary policy has been a powerful deterrent to inflation. This paper outlines the threats to Federal Reserve independence, particularly as it exists from the unconventional policies that it pursued to mitigate the financial crisis. Economists have an important role in making the case that monetary policy remains independent.     

Exporting to the Federal Republic of Germany

Among Industrialised countries, the Federal Republic is certainly one of the largest markets able to absorb vast quantities of products from the LDCs of South East Asia. However, to open up this sales outlet with its formidable future, it will be necessary to operate an all-embracing marketing strategy.     

外资银行人民币业务的放开对我中资银行的影响及对策

2004年2月13日，花旗、汇丰、东亚和瑞穗成为中国内地涉足非外资企业人民币贷款业务的第一批外资银行，并先期在上海实行试点。不久，上述4家获准的外资银行将可接受国有企业和民营企业两大类中资企业的贷款申请或为其办理其他人民币业务。此前，在华外资银行仪获准向内地的境外人士和外商投资企业提供人民币服务。外资银行人民币贷款业务的进     

Determinants of Corporate Donations to Nonprofits

The current study was undertaken to begin an initial investigation of determinants of corporate charitable giving. Factors analyzed include donor corporation demographics, forms of donations utilized, and corporate preferences with regard to the beneficiaries of their giving. Results indicate that age of the nonprofit and age of the corporation as well as relationships between owners/managers and workers with the nonprofit are positively related to donations. Strategic implications for these and other results are discussed.     

Basic analytics of multilateral lending and surveillance

I analyse the role of multilateral financial institutions in a world of global capital markets assuming that they have an informational advantage over private lenders in the market for sovereign debt. I show that the adverse selection problem in this market may be solved through certification if the multilateral agency does not care too much about borrower country welfare. However, with lending the private information of the agency will be revealed whatever its weighting of borrower welfare vs. private lenders' profits. Multilateral lending on concessional terms also alleviates the moral hazard problem — that investment in creditworthy borrowers is reduced as private lenders seek to avoid ex post default by constraining credit.     

Interstate banking,bank consolidation,and bank lending to small business

Proponents and critics of interstate banking argue over the implications of nationwide banking for bank lending to small business. This study explores the patterns of (1) bank consolidation at the national level and (2) the share of domestic-bank commercial lending extended to small firms, specifically, small manufacturing firms, over the period 1976–90. The evidence indicates that despite the trend toward fewer banking organizations and increased aggregate bank concentration due largely to cross-state expansion by superregional banking organizations, no significant downtrend is observed in the share of domestic-bank credit extended to small manufacturing firms. Nor is there any discernible downtrend in banks' share of borrowing by small manufacturing firms. These results are consistent with the thesis that banking industry consolidation hasnot led to a reduction in the supply of bank credit to small firms, at least within the manufacturing sector.     

Lending technologies,lending specialization,and minority access to small-business loans

We investigate minority access to small-business loans using a probit model of loan application denial that recognizes two loan types (line-of-credit loans and non-line-of-credit loans) made by two lender types (commercial banks and nonbank financial institutions). We estimate our model on data from the 1998 Survey of Small Business Finances. We find evidence consistent with minority equal access to bank credit lines and nonbank non-line-of-credit loans in highly competitive loan markets; in less competitive markets we find evidence consistent with unequal access to these loans. We also find evidence consistent with unequal minority access to bank non-line-of-credit loans, regardless of loan market competitiveness. Our findings differ from previous research which treats small-business loans as a homogenous product and finds evidence consistent with unequal minority access to small-business loans generally. We argue that the existence of multiple small-business lending technologies and loan specialization by lenders account for our findings and demonstrate the need to treat small-business loans as a heterogeneous product when investigating equal access to small-business credit.