环境质量与中国城市发展沉浮:人力资本视角的解释

环境质量日益成为影响中国城市品质和高质量发展的重要因素。本文采用中国人口普查、夜间灯光和基于卫星反演的大气污染等数据,分析空气污染引致人力资本选择性流动,进而带来的城市长期经济增长效应。结果发现,空气污染并没有显著影响城市人口规模变化,但是降低了城市经济增速和增长质量。以PM_2.5和SO₂为代表的空气污染导致城市大学及以上学历人口显著流出,进而带来城市人均夜间灯光亮度值和GDP增长率的下降。本文进一步基于“两控区”政策,反向论证了环境规制政策能够带来空气质量改善,从而减缓高人力资本的流出,促进经济增长。本文从经验上分析了环境规制、环境质量、经济增长之间的关系,也为中国城市兴衰格局提供了一个基于环境视角的解释。     

More on the emigration of the peasantry

This paper sets out some circumstances in which emigration of some fraction of the population may be harmful to those who are left behind. In elaborating on the recent work of Keith Griffin, we argue that when emigration takes place, non-emigrant income will rise or fall depending upon the proportion of the original endowment of capital emigrants take with them. When pure labour emigrates, in a one-sector model, non-emigrant income must decline. In a two-sector Heckscher-Ohlin framework, the income of non-emigrants may also decline if one of the goods is non-traded.     

REGIONAL INCOME INEQUALITY IN INDONESIA AND THE INITIAL IMPACT OF THE ECONOMIC CRISIS

This paper estimates regional income inequality from 1993 to 1998, using a Theil index based upon district-level GDP and population data. Between 1993 and 1997, when Indonesia's annual average growth rate exceeded 7%, regional income inequality rose significantly. A two-stage nested inequality decomposition analysis indicates this was due mainly to an increase in within-province inequality, especially in Riau, Jakarta and West and East Java. In 1997, the within-province component represented about 50% of regional income inequality. The crisis caused per capita GDP growth to revert to its 1995 level, but the impact was spread unevenly across provinces and districts. In 1998 regional income inequality declined to its 1993-94 level. In contrast to 1993-97, three-quarters of the 1998 decline was due to a change in between-province inequality, with the Java-Bali region playing a prominent role. The crisis appears particularly to have afflicted urban Java and urban Sumatra.     

人口老龄化的长期经济影响：上海的挑战与对策

在全球人口老龄化趋势日益显著的背景下,生育率的迅速下降和预期寿命的延长使得上海人口正在经历快速的老龄化,这一人口年龄结构的转变也对上海经济发展产生着长期的影响。作为目前我国老龄化程度最高的城市,如何在经济迅速发展的同时迎接和应对老龄化挑战,这是上海当前需要高度重视的问题,关系到社会和谐稳定与经济可持续发展。本文将从上海...     

Urban mortality in Greece: Hermoupolis (1859–1940)

The paper examines mortality patterns in the city of Hermoupolis, on the Greek island of Syros, from 1859 to 1940. It produces important new insights into Mediterranean urban historical demography and is the first comprehensive study of urban mortality in Greece, utilising the largest and one of the longest time series at the individual level yet calculated from civil registration and census data. Abridged life tables were constructed for the first time for a Greek urban settlement, enabling the calculation of age-specific mortality rates and life expectancies. Hermoupolis experienced much higher mortality levels than the national average. The findings suggest that early childhood mortality started to decline rapidly from the late nineteenth century onwards, with declines in early adulthood and infancy following. The paper reinforces and confirms our limited knowledge about the timing of the mortality transition in Greece. It proposes that an urban penalty was clearly operating in the country even during the early twentieth century. Finally, this paper suggests that a combination of factors was responsible for the mortality decline in Hermoupolis, including wider access to water, which even when it was not clean enough to drink, nevertheless enabled improvements in personal hygiene among the residents of the city.     

国内外关于城镇贫困治理的主要经验及其启示

为了有针对性地提高现行贫困治理政策面向城镇贫困人口时的供给能力,本文对国内外关于城镇贫困治理的主要经验进行了梳理,并提出对我国城镇贫困治理的启示。研究发现,国外城镇贫困治理的主要经验是困治理制度覆盖范围广泛、保障项目丰富水平较高或灵活性较强、保障资金的筹集方式较为灵活;国内城镇贫困治理的主要经验是保障标准确定方式较为科学、严格准入制度细化分类救助、鼓励城镇贫困人口积极就业。最后从理念层面、技术层面、政策层面、制度层面提出了国内外经验的启示。     

The Development of Inequality and Poverty in Indonesia, 1932–2008

We estimate inequality in Indonesia between 1932 and 2008. Inequality increased at the start of this period but declined sharply from the 1960s onwards. The increase was due to a shift from domestic to export agriculture over the period up to the Great Depression. During the 1930s, as the price of export crops declined, the income of rich farmers suffered a blow. Yet this was counterbalanced by an increasing gap between expenditures in the urban and rural sectors, causing an overall rise in inequality. As for the second half of the century, we find that the employment shift towards manufacturing and services—combined with an increase in labour productivity in agriculture—accounts for inequality’s decline, which was halted in the 1990s. These inequality trends affected poverty as well, but prior to the 1940s the negative impact of the rise in inequality was offset by an increase in per capita GDP. Between 1950 and 1980 a decline in inequality, combined with increased per capita GDP, rapidly raised a large portion of the population above the poverty line.     

城市服务设施更新对房价异质性作用研究——以成都市为例

以2013—2021年成都市二手房价格数据和城市服务设施POI数据为例，探究1 km×1 km空间格网尺度下房价和城市服务设施的时空关系演化。研究表明：城市服务设施和居住空间分布一致，沿交通干线呈“米”字状放射特征，城市服务设施逐步丰富但速度小于房价增长；城市服务设施分布与房价相关性显著，却逐渐减弱，尤其营利性设施相关系数降幅更为明显，区域内部房价分异态势日益加深；地理探测器模型能够有效识别出不同变量对房价影响差异，人口密度、建筑年份、路网密度影响最强，初级教育设施与其他设施交互对房价解释力显著增强。     

Perspectives on poverty and income inequality in Brazil

Exploratory analysis of the advance tabulations of the 1980 Brazilian demographic census suggests the proportion of the population in poverty fell during the decade 1970–1980. The degree of inequality of the distribution of the income of individuals apparently remained about the same from 1970 to 1980, after rising in the 1960s. This near-constancy of the overall inequality of income distribution resulted from two offsetting changes: a narrowing of the gap between rural and urban incomes, and greater inequality within the rural sector.     

北京都市型现代农业发展的现状、困境与改革方向

对北京农业发展现状进行分析的结果显示,北京农业所占比重趋于下降,虽然各基础性产业质量效益保持稳定,但各类生产要素均出现不同程度的萎缩,农业生产发展形势严峻。在此基础上提出：在农业供给侧结构性改革与“调转节”的背景下,必须打破资源环境与体制机制约束,拓展生产性空间,加快培育新型农业经营主体与多元社会化服务主体,实现北京都市型现代农业可持续发展。     

中国城市人口密度过高了吗:经济增长的视角

优化人口分布空间格局、提高城镇化质量对未来保持经济增长的重要性不言而喻，但对于如何优化人口分布格局和提高城镇化质量，现有的文献存在持续争议。文章从经济发展的过程来讨论城市最优人口密度问题，认为各城市之间存在一种赶超现象，少数城市是吸收和转化国外技术的主要场所，是本国的增长前沿，其他城市通过接受前沿城市的溢出来实现增长，城市人口的最优密度与城市在宏观经济增长中的角色有关，人口密度对经济增长的影响随城市在经济发展中的作用不同而不同。借鉴发展经济学的理论，文章在一个赶超的框架下分析了人口密度对城市经济增长的影响，重点考察在靠近增长前沿和远离增长前沿的城市中人口密度对经济增长的影响是否存在差异。运用1999—2014年中国地级以上的城市数据，实证结果表明，对于靠近增长前沿的城市来说，人口密度的经济增长正效应更大；对于远离增长前沿的城市来说，人口密度的经济增长正效应更小或效应为负；进一步研究发现，城市人口密度对经济增长的这种非线性效应随着与增长前沿城市的空间距离和行政边界数量增加而衰减。文章结果意味着，限制增长前沿城市的人口密度将会对它们的经济增长产生负向影响。下一步城镇化的政策重点应该是对这些城市做好发展规划，在增加城市人口密度的同时，通过科学规划公共服务设施和交通基础设施的空间分布，从而控制这些城市的拥挤，而不是简单地限制人口进入和将人口分布在广阔的空间上。     

体谅一下可怜的行人

最近,很多新闻都在报道,说中国正在向城镇人口占总人口数过半的城市化社会过渡。听到这个消息,我想到了一个问题：他们打算怎么安置这些涌进城市的人？我的意思不是说这些人将要住到哪里——我只是在想,也许这些人到了城里,住房问题自然会马上解决——可是今后他们到哪儿去散步？     

Where to draw the line: Data problems and other difficulties estimating urbanisation in Africa

The purpose of this article is to review the current state of knowledge on the pitfalls around definitions of the urban and the use of census data in estimating and tracking changes in urban populations. Differing criteria for the urban population and changing definitions make comparisons of levels of urbanisation very difficult across countries. Where censuses are held infrequently and administered less rigorously, accurate data on the urban population are a particular problem. This is especially the case in sub-Saharan Africa. Secondary African cities are increasingly important sites of urbanisation in sub-Saharan Africa, yet there is far less knowledge about these smaller cities. This article therefore looks at issues around estimates of populations in sub-Saharan cities and why this is a particular problem in smaller cities. Some of the implications of these problems are discussed, as well as measures to improve our understanding of the urbanisation process in smaller cities.     

新型城镇化背景下的流动人口研究：范畴变迁、实践审视与演进方向

第七次全国人口普查的结果显示，我国人口流动趋势更加明显，超大城市集结人力资本的虹吸效应日渐增强，高素质、高学历、高技能人才逐渐成为城市流动人口的主体部分。文章梳理了流动人口研究的概念范畴变化，主要是从笼统的农民工概念到次级群体，再到城市新移民研究，这一动态演变过程反映国内流动人口精细化研究的内在需要。城市新移民的研究视角进一步丰富了流动人口研究，有助于破除先前研究的思维定势，还原流动人口的多样性特点，体现流动人口的时代性特征。文章提出，随着以人为核心的新型城镇化战略的提出，国内流动人口研究应转向城乡互融性思维、关注人口结构性融合以及强化微观整合性等视角，更加重视超大城市复杂化人口结构中的城市治理难题、青年群体在城市经济社会发展中的作用及困境、域外经验对国内应对流动人口策略的借鉴作用，进而为新时代具有中国特色的新型城镇化发展提供理论和实践借鉴。     

Urban‐biased Policies and the Increasing Rural–Urban Expenditure Gap in Vietnam in the 1990s

There was a significant and widening rural–urban gap during the economic boom in Vietnam in the 1990s. Using an econometric decomposition, we find that differences in individual characteristics such as education, ethnicity and age are the primary explanation for this widening gap, whereas differences in the returns to these characteristics are the primary explanation for the increase in the gap at higher percentiles. We then argue that government investment policies and the manipulation of price incentives were important factors behind the gap. In particular, we argue that government policies created some benefit to urban dwellers at the expense of rural areas, lending support to Lipton's urban‐bias hypothesis, which states that government, under strong political pressure from the urban population, directs resources from rural to urban areas without consideration of efficiency or equity.     

Further progress in the desegregation of South African towns and cities, 1996–2001

Between 1996 and 2001 South African towns and cities have continued the slow process of residential desegregation which was first noted in the previous inter-census period. The changes have been group-specific and place-specific, and the experiences of different groups and regions have differed substantially. The key African–White index of dissimilarity remains exceptionally high throughout the country, although it has now shown some evidence of decline. The Free State stands out as being significantly more segregated than the rest of the country. KwaZulu-Natal continues to be the most desegregated province and significant changes are evident in this respect for most inter-group indices. Nevertheless, the vast majority of the urban population continues to live in highly segregated suburbs.     

‘Population pressure’ on the land: Analysis of trends past and future

At some point during development, total agricultural labour force (ALF) begins to decline even as total population is increasing. This paper explores the determinants of this decline. We find that income level and population growth rate explain much of the variation in ALF. Rate of income change does not seem to have an independent effect. Population density may or may not have an independent effect. If population growth is considered to be an intermediate variable, the overall effect of income alone is such that the elasticity of ALF with respect to income is of the order of ?0.27 to *minus;0.4.     

国家重点生态功能区人口发展的现状、问题与对策研究

国家重点生态功能区是关系到全国生态环境安全的敏感性区域,其中人口因素是经济社会发展的关键性因素.以全国重点生态功能区为研究范围,以区域内县域为分析单位,对2007—2018年数据进行分析.结果表明,重点生态功能区区域人口增长率、人口城镇化水平、人均GDP、人均财政收入和人均受教育程度显著低于全国平均水平;区域人口主要分布于中西部地区,且少数民族人口多,为人口净迁出区,劳动力人口占比较低.区域存在人口总量不利于生态环境保护、城镇发展水平低、外出打工农民比例大、农业人口迁移意愿不强烈、劳动力素质低、区域贫困人口多等问题.最后,针对重点生态功能区人口的发展问题提出对策建议,为实现区域人口的均衡发展提供借鉴和参考.     

The economic geography of race in the New World: Brazil, 1500–2000†

Race is a fundamental aspect of historical inequality and institutions, yet it is at times overlooked within the literature on comparative development in the Americas. This article investigates the nature of staple production in Brazil and attendant changes in the racial composition of 20 modern states from its discovery by the Portuguese to the present. The Indigenous population was surpassed by that of African descent in the north‐east, south‐east, and north, respectively, during the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries; not until decades after the abolition of slavery did people of European heritage come to constitute a majority. These transitions were guided by the relative productivity, natural increase, and price of Native and African slaves, contingent on the extent of natural resource wealth (mineral deposits or land suitable for growing cash crops) and supply of free labour. In those areas where slavery was most profitable, a 1 per cent increase in the relative cost of Native labour raised the proportion of people of African ancestry by up to 2 per cent, depending on the measures of slave prices and racial classifications considered. This relationship is robust to changes in output prices or the populace of European descent, and alternative scenarios of aboriginal population decline.     

The development of real wages in Norway about 1730–1910

Abstract

Prior to about 1850, the classes in Norway living in households where the living standard of household members was wholly or largely determined by the size of an annual wage paid in cash were numerically speaking marginal. In 1801, for example, the aggregate urban population of Norway formed no more than about 10% of the country's total population of 883,000. During the industrial revolution in Norway the subsistence economy was to a large extent replaced by the cash economy, but around 1910 about 360,000 of the occupationally active total of 880,000 were still employed in primary occupations.