TRADE CREATION AND DIVERSION EFFECTS OF THE U.S.-CANADIAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT

This study empirically estimates and evaluates the economic benefits of the U.S. and Canadian Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Most past studies rely on aggregate data. The analysis here emphasizes the trade effects of removing tariff and nontariff barriers on each commodity group classified by the Standard International Trade Classification. Estimating the amount of trade expansion under FTA for both countries involves using the import demand elasticities from a dynamic demand model. Results show that U.S. imports from Canada are more sensitive to domestic, import, and world prices than are Canadian imports from the United States. U.S. imports from Canada would increase roughly £3.257 billion compared to the £2.432 billion increase for Canadian imports from the United States .     

THE IMPACT OF MERGERS IN U.S. PETROLEUM INDUSTRY ON WHOLESALE GASOLINE PRICES

Starting in the mid‐1990s, the U.S. petroleum industry experienced a wave of mergers, several of them between large petroleum companies that were previously competitors. Using an econometric analysis of terminal city‐specific data, this study finds that the majority of the mergers led to higher wholesale gasoline prices in the United States in the mid‐1990s through 2000. (JEL L7, L13, L40)     

Does the stock market affect investment by Chinese firms? Some new evidence

During the 1990s, the Chinese government increasingly relied on the stock market as the major tool for state‐owned enterprise (SOE) reform and for the allocation of investment resources. This paper investigates the impact of stock market development in China on firm‐level capital investment by using a panel data set constructed by the author of all Chinese listed firms for the period 1992 to 1999. The results show that stock market valuation, as measured by Tobin’s q, has a highly independent, significant and positive influence on listed firms’ investment decisions, particularly during the stock market boom from 1996 to 1999. Given the sizable real effects of the stock market, deviations of stock prices from fundamentals can have substantially negative consequences. As a result, this study suggests that sensible regulation of the Chinese stock market is needed in order to enhance the efficiency of stock prices and facilitate an effective channeling of investment funds.     

BILATERAL TRADE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA: IMPLICATIONS OF THE FREE TRADE AGREEMENT

This study's primary objective is to evaluate empirically the economic effects of the U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement (FTA). The paper emphasizes bilateral trade flows of agricultural and industrial products between the United States and Canada, given that the FTA removes tariff and non-tariff barriers. It evaluates the FTA's impact on the two countries' trade with third countries. The paper specifies a traditional log-linear trade model consisting of import demand and export supply equations for both agricultural and industrial products. It uses quarterly time-series U.S. and Canadian trade data for 1972–1985.
The study uses the two-stage least-squares estimator to estimate the models. The models had R coefficients ranging from 0.78 to 0.99, indicating that the models' explanatory variables explain most causes of variations in the dependent variable. This study reveals that U.S. imports of agricultural and industrial products from Canada were more sensitive than were Canadian imports not only to import and domestic prices but also to world prices. This is because Canadian consumers have less domestic substitutes than do their U.S. counterparts. Also, Canada has a smaller internal market than does the United States. The study estimates that U.S. imports from Canada will increase $2.8 billion while Canadian imports from the United States will increase $1.2 billion. The impact on the two countries' trade with third-party countries will be insignificant.     

UNITED STATES-CHINA TRADE AT THE COMMODITY LEVEL AND THE YUAN-DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE

In 1978 when China began her economic reforms of moving toward a free market economy and trade liberalization, the trade balance between China and the United States was in favor of the United States in the magnitude of 600 million dollars. Over the 1978–2002 period, however, it has changed in favor of China such that in 2002 China had a surplus of 120 billion dollars against the United States. Over the same period, the Chinese yuan has depreciated almost fourfold. Is real depreciation of the yuan against the dollar a factor in the trade between the two countries? In this article, we employ data at the industry level (88 two‐ and three‐digit industries) and recent advances in error‐correction modeling to show that indeed the real yuan‐dollar rate has played a significant role. This contradicts most previous research that used trade data at the aggregate level. (JEL F31, F32, F14)     

THE MEASUREMENT OF U.S. REAL CAPITAL INPUT, 1929–1967

The purpose of this paper is to develop methods for the measurement of real capital input. These methods are based on perpetual inventory estimates of capital stock and corresponding estimates of capital service prices. Stocks and service prices are adjusted for relative utilization of capital. The resulting estimates represent a separation of income from capital into price and quantity components. Estimates of capital input in current and constant prices are constructed for corporate business, non-corporate business, and households and non-profit institutions in the United States for the period 1929–1967. These estimates are prepared in a form suitable for integration into the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts.     

THE ROLE OF EXCHANGE RATE IN SINO-U.S. BILATERAL TRADE

We use the error component two-stage least squares estimation method to examine the effects of the Sino-U.S. exchange rate and the weighted exchange rate between the United States and other Asian countries on the Sino-U.S. trade patterns. Our study suggests that both the exchange rates have contributed to China's increased trade surplus with the United States. China has imported intermediate goods from the Asian countries, produced final goods using its cheap labor, and exported those goods to the United States. This is especially true for bilateral trade of high-tech manufacturing goods. Our study also reveals that the U.S. bilateral trade balance could improve if China appreciates its currency (Yuan) against the U.S. dollar. ( JEL F14, F10, F19)     

Macroeconomic News and Stock Returns in the United States and Germany

Abstract. Using daily data for the January 1997 to June 2002 period, we analyze similarities and differences in the impact of macroeconomic news on stock returns in the United States and Germany. We consider 27 different types of news for the United States and 12 different types of news for Germany. For the United States, we present evidence for asymmetric reactions of stock prices to news. In a boom (recession) period, bad (good) news on GDP growth and unemployment or lower (higher) than expected interest rates may be good news for stock prices. In the period under consideration there is little evidence for asymmetric effects in Germany. However, in the case of Germany, international news appears at least as important as domestic news. There is no evidence that US stock prices are influenced by German news. The analysis of bi-hourly data for Germany confirms these results.     

NAFTA AND THE MAQUILADORAS: BOON OR BANE?

This article examines the factors that affect the value added of the maquiladoras as a group as well as the apparel, electrical equipment, food, furniture, and motor vehicle equipment industries. It also explores the impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on the maquiladoras. The economic variables of relative wage rates, relative prices between Mexico and the United States, and U.S. real gross domestic product generally appear to have their expected effects. However, with the possible exceptions of the clothing and electrical equipment industries, this study suggests that NAFTA had either a negative impact or no effect on the maquiladoras. ( JEL F14, 054)     

THE DETERMINANTS OF PRIVATE CAPITAL FLOWS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES: THE ROLE OF THE FED'S UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY

Previous studies on the effect of the Fed's Unconventional Monetary Policy on capital flows in Emerging Economies have not been conclusive. I analyze if the effect of these policies on capital flows is heterogeneous between countries. This approach could be the smoking gun in this debate as I attempt to find evidence of a specific mechanism by which Unconventional Monetary Policy could affect the pattern of capital flows in Emerging Economies. The results suggest that Unconventional Monetary Policy has a significant effect on capital flows which depends on the type of measure adopted and the degree of financial exposure of each country to the United States. (JEL C23, E52, E58, F21, F32)     

Financial Market Data Versus Accounting Data: Which Better Explains Stock Returns?

This paper presents the comparison of how financial market and accounting data affect stock prices and returns. The goal was to ascertain whether financial information or accounting data dominate in evaluating stock prices. Most valuation techniques used by firms are based on models using either accounting variables (earnings, book value, cash flows, research and development expenses) or financial market data (e.g. beta, market value, interest). The answer is of great importance for valuators and investors as it will help them focus on the most important variables and make better valuations and choices. This answer is also important for accounting standard setters as the preferred method will serve as an indicator for the quality of financial statements and their importance to users. The paper contributes to the existing literature in the fields of value relevance of accounting information and firm valuation and accounting standards (e.g. International Financial Reporting Standards, United States General Accepted Accounting Principles). To answer this question, share prices were estimated based on financial data using the capital asset pricing model and for accounting data, using Ohlson’s model. The results were tested for both methodologies by comparing estimated share prices with actual ones. The greater the correlation between the two variables the better the explanatory power of the model. The focus was on S&P 500 firms for the period 2002–2017.

     

Daily variation,capital market efficiency and predicting stock returns for the Hong Kong and Tokyo exchanges

Studying capital market efficiency is important because result may infer that there are predictable properties of the time series of prices of traded securities on organized markets. We examine the weak form of the efficient markets hypothesis to indicate its usefulness in terms of the results of this study. Furthermore, this study of individual securities prices of traded securities on the organized markets of Hong Kong and Japan corroborate previous findings of studies of individual stocks and market indexes both in Asian nations, the United States and other stock exchanges in the United Kingdom and Europe. Daily patterns are present in the times series of securities prices. You will note also, that the models identified reflect the returns on individual firms listed on the two of the three largest Asian Stock Exchanges.     

The effects of the Uruguay round: empirical evidence from U.S. industry

This article uses an event study to evaluate the anticipated results of the Uruguay Round on U.S. industry. Economists commonly use computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to predict the net economic efficiency effects of trade agreements. The event study method represents a complementary approach that relies on stock price movements to assess how investors predict that an event, in this case the conclusion of the Uruguay Round, will affect industry profitability. The empirical estimates indicate that U.S. industries with comparative advantage (disadvantage) experience positive (negative) stock price reactions, reflecting an increase (a decrease) in the industry trade and investment opportunities as well as an increased (decreased) return to existing tangible and intangible assets. For the market as a whole, the variation in stock prices does not differ significantly from zero, and the economic magnitude of industry gains and losses is small. These results are consistent with most CGE assessments and with the skeptical attitude that the real impact of the Uruguay Round Agreement remains uncertain.     

THE RENT-PRICE RATIO FOR THE AGGREGATE STOCK OF OWNER-OCCUPIED HOUSING

We construct a quarterly time series of the rent-price ratio for the aggregate stock of owner-occupied housing in the United States, starting in 1960, by merging micro data from the last five Decennial Censuses of Housing surveys with price indexes for house prices and rents. We show that the rent-price ratio ranged between 5 and 5.5 percent between 1960 and 1995, but rapidly declined after 1995. By year-end 2006, the rent-price ratio reached a historic low of 3.5 percent. For the rent-price ratio to return to its historical average over, say, the next five years, house prices likely would have to fall considerably.     

DO STOCK RETURNS VARY WITH CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS? BUSH VS. GORE: THE FLORIDA RECOUNT

I examine the relation between campaign contributions and stock returns during the Florida recount period of the 2000 presidential elections. Using the full population of publicly traded firms, I find an economically significant positive (negative) relation between pre‐election campaign contributions to Bush (Gore) and stock returns during the 37‐day election recount period. This relation exists for both the level and partisanship of contributions, and exists incrementally at both the firm and industry levels. These relations are robust to several different specifications, including alternative event windows that exclude the potentially confounding House/Senate races. The firm‐level analysis is consistent with contributions being influence‐motivated.     

FOREIGN ENTRY INTO U.S. SERVICE INDUSTRY BY TAKEOVERS AND THE CREATION OF NEW FIRMS

We study the relation between foreign entry in U.S. service sector industries and the revealed comparative advantage of the investing country using U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis firm‐level data on all foreign takeovers and new foreign‐owned firms from 1998 to 2008. We find foreign acquisitions in the service sector are in industries of U.S. comparative advantage while new foreign firms are in industries of investing country's comparative advantage. This suggests that foreign acquisitions in the service sector are not directly related to foreign investors' competitiveness in the industry of investment. In contrast foreign investors in new service sector firms come from countries with a competitive edge in the industries of investment. We also find that foreign investors of new service sector firms are from Organization for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) countries with a comparative disadvantage in royalties and trademarks. (JEL F21, F23, G34)     

The 2015 Chinese Food Safety Law and market quality

Safety standards, including food safety laws, provide necessary infrastructure to improve market quality. The present study investigates the impact of the revised Chinese Food Safety Law on the quality of China's food market. Using an event study approach, we empirically analyse the impact of nine official news events relating to the new Food Safety Law on the stock prices of companies engaged in food‐related businesses. The study demonstrates that three news events have a statistically significant and robust impact, and that all the events have a negative influence on the prices. The results show the possibility of a drop in market quality in the short term in the process of improving quality.     

PARTISAN POLITICS, INTEREST RATES AND THE STOCK MARKET: EVIDENCE FROM AMERICAN AND BRITISH RETURNS IN THE TWENTIETH CENTURY

We examine the relationship between government partisanship, interest rates and the mean and volatility of stock prices in the United States and United Kingdom. We suggest that traders in the stock market rationally expect higher (lower) post-electoral interest rates during the incumbency of the left-wing (right-wing) party – Democrats and Labor (Republican and Conservative) – and in election years when they expect the left-wing (right-wing) party to win elections. We hypothesize that expectations of higher (lower) interest rates decrease (increase) the mean and volatility of stock prices during the actual incumbency or even anticipation of a left-wing (right-wing) party holding the office of the chief executive. Results from empirical models estimated on data from U.S. and U.K. markets over most of the twentieth century statistically support our claims.     

Bond rating changes and stock returns: evidence from the Spanish stock market

This study analyzes the effect of corporate bond rating changes by international agencies on stock prices. This topic has not yet been analyzed for the Spanish stock market, despite the growing importance of ratings in Spanish financial markets. On an efficient market, rating changes will only have an effect if they contain some new information. The results from an event study indicate that rating actions cause significant negative abnormal returns in issuing firms around the date of the announcement. This evidence indicates an informational effect related to downgrades, which supports the hypothesis that credit rating agencies provide information that may reduce the asymmetric information problem between firms and investors. In the case of upgrades, our results are compatible with a redistribution of wealth between bondholders and owners or with the reputation hypothesis.      

PARTICIPATION OF FIRMS IN VOLUNTARY ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION PROGRAMS: AN ANALYSIS OF CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY AND CAPITAL MARKET PERFORMANCE

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) employs voluntary programs as a policy instrument to encourage firms to go beyond mere compliance with laws and regulations in protecting the environment. Based on event study methodology, this paper tests for abnormal stock market returns from membership in the National Environmental Performance Track (NEPT) program. The analysis shows that there is strong evidence that acceptance of a facility to the NEPT adds significantly to the market capitalization of the accepted firms. Corporate social responsibility can be financially rewarding for firms and voluntary programs of the EPA can be an effective complement to performance‐based regulatory instruments. (JEL G14, Q58)