Explaining House Prices in Australia: 1970–2003*

This paper aims to explain changes in real house prices in Australia from 1970 to 2003. We develop and estimate a long-run equilibrium model that shows the real long-run economic determinants of house prices and a short-run asymmetric error correction model to represent house price changes in the short run. We find that, in the long run, real house prices are determined significantly and positively by real disposable income and the consumer price index. They are also determined significantly and negatively by the unemployment rate, real mortgage rates, equity prices and the housing stock. Employing our short-run asymmetric error correction model, we find that there are significant lags in adjustment to equilibrium. When real house prices are rising at more than 2 per cent per annum, the housing market adjusts to equilibrium in approximately four quarters. When real house prices are static or falling, the adjustment process takes six quarters.     

A DECADE OF DECLINING WELFARE PARTICIPATION: SORTING OUT THE CAUSES

Since the late 1970s, the proportion of all single-parent families receiving benefits from the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) program has been declining. This is reversing an earlier two-decade trend. This paper uses data from the Current Population Survey so as to investigate the reasons for the decline. The analysis reveals that for the years prior to 1981, the decline has resulted both from an erosion in real AFDC guarantee levels–caused by high rates of inflation–and from changes in demographic conditions. For the years subsequent to 1981, the decline has resulted from an increase in effective AFDC benefit reduction rates caused by the Omnibus Reconciliation Act of 1981. Somewhat offsetting the participation rate decline were falling real child support collections and a rising unemployment rate.     

Does the sector bias of skill-biased technical change explain changing skill premia?

This paper shows the sector bias of skill-biased technical change (SBTC) can help explain changing skill premia within countries in recent decades. Our model demonstrates that in many cases it is the sector bias of SBTC that determines SBTC's effect on relative factor prices, not its factor bias. Rising (falling) skill premia are caused by SBTC that is concentrated in skill-intensive (unskill-intensive) sectors. Our empirical findings for ten OECD countries over the 1970s and 1980s are consistent with sector bias being important. In countries when skill premia were rising (falling), SBTC was generally concentrated in skill-intensive (unskill-intensive) sectors.     

房地产价格与宏观经济互动关系实证研究——基于我国31个省份面板数据分析

运用面板数据模型对我国1995-2006年31个省市的数据进行分析后发现,房地产价格明显受利率和通货膨胀率的影响,而且房地产供给、收入等基础性宏观经济变量在中长期也决定房地产价格。房地产价格明显影响到宏观经济稳定,房地产价格上升会增加社会总投资和总消费,房地产投资通过"财富效应"对消费的影响始终明显,对社会总投资的影响也非常显著。因此,当前要稳定宏观经济,促进经济增长,必须稳定房地产价格。     

Real Rates of Return in Electricity Supply: New South Wales,Tasmania and Victoria*

This paper uses a newly developed economic return model to estimate the real (inflation adjusted) costs of supply, and rates of return, for the electricity systems in three States over very long time periods. It is shown that because of a combination of public ownership and the use of historical cost accounts, the real return on capital tends to fall with the onset of rapid inflation such as occurred in the mid 1970s In NSW in particular the rapid growth in demand for electricity in the 1970s due to falling real electricity prices and considerable increases in other energy prices has given rise to a major investment program and rapidly developing excess capacity. Higher real electricity prices in the 1980s, combined with the economic slump of 1982, resulted in low or negative growth rates in demand Much of the boom I bust mentality evident in all three States may have been avoided or ameliorated had the electrical supply authorities been required to earn even a very modest real rate of return of (say) 4 or more per cent p.a. which is considerably below the (pre-tax) return earned in the corporate sector.     

PRICE HETEROGENEITY AND "REAL" INEQUALITY: A CASE STUDY OF PRICES AND POVERTY IN RURAL SOUTH INDIA

This paper, based upon a case-study of three Indian villages, studies whether households within the same market pay different prices for identical goods. It is found that not only are unit prices for food heterogeneous, but that the poor pay more for the same goods than the rich. This is because liquidity constraints force poorer households to purchase goods in small quantities and consequently subject them to quantity premiums. Household specific index numbers are used to adjust nominal incomes to real values and it is found that Gini coefficients of real incomes are between 12 percent to 23 percent greater than the Gim for nominal incomes. An econometric analysis of the determinants of prices shows that incomes are negatively correlated with prices, as is family size, but that the amount of land owned shows a positive relationship.     

THE TREND IN RETIREMENT*

A model with leisure production and endogenous retirement is used to explain declining labor force participation rates of elderly males. The model is calibrated to cross‐sectional data on labor force participation rates of U.S. males by age, their drop in consumption, and leisure good expenditure share in 2000. Running the calibrated model for the period 1850–2000, a prediction of the evolution of the cross‐section is obtained. The model accounts for more than 87% of the increase in retirement of men over 65. The increase in retirement is driven by rising wages and falling prices of leisure goods.     

AN APPROPRIATE SYSTEM FOR DEFLATION OF SECTORAL INCOME IN A DEVELOPING ECONOMY ILLUSTRATED BY THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR OF THE INDIAN ECONOMY FROM 1951 to 1965*

The technique of national income accounting is a part of what Hicks has termed “The Fixprice Method”. Deflation is an attempt to approximate a real economy to a fixprice economy. It is shown that if the propositions of macro-dynamics are to hold, this deflation cannot be done in accordance with the price structure prevailing at any particular historical time, but must use that given by the capital theory of value, viz., when returns to labour are equal to zero. For a labour-abundant developing economy this will correspond to prices based on opportunity cost principles. As an illustration, sectoral incomes on this basis have been calculated for the industrial sector of the Indian economy for the years 1951 to 1965.     

An Empirical Investigation of the Ratchet Effect in the OECD, 1985–2009

This paper employs a reduced form structuralist model of inflation in the OECD over the period 1985–2009 to find out whether domestic prices respond symmetrically to rising and falling import prices. We find that the response is asymmetrical: domestic prices rise when import prices rise but they do not fall when import prices fall. Our finding thus confirms the presence of a ratchet effect in the sample countries during the sample period, and implies that factors – such as exchange rate fluctuations and movements in tariff rates – that influence import prices tend to be inflationary.     

土地财政制度对房地产价格的影响因素研究*

本文基于动态系统GMM模型,运用Stata软件和计量经济学方法,对2009—2015年中国15个大中城市房价水平的变化趋势进行研究。结果表明：（1）地方政府依靠土地财政和房地产维持地方财政,土地财政是导致房价上涨的根本原因。（2）在经济下行的背景下,地方政府和房企共同经营土地,地方政府试图通过做大土地财政拉动地方经济。（3）中央政府选择有利于中央政府效用水平增加的经济发展方式。所以中央政府、地方政府与房企会形成经济增长联盟共同推动房价上涨。（4）房企行为对土地财政导致的高房价具有放大效应,且作用效果在东部、中西部地区呈现明显的区域差异。本文的贡献是发现了房企行为与土地财政、房价上涨之间相互作用的逻辑关系,为找到缓解房地产价格上涨的措施提供了新的可能性。     

中国房地产价格泡沫原因分析

房地产业与其他行业联系密切,对国民经济发展具有明显的拉动作用。20年来,中国房地产业逐步发展壮大。伴随着中国房地产市场的强劲增长,其价格出现了泡沫化倾向。本文分析了我国房地产价格泡沫的原因,指出流动性膨胀、房地产市场虚拟化、虚拟经济部门资金错配、土地价格不断上涨和房地产市场需求刚性是房地产价格出现泡沫的主要原因。当前的挤出政策治标不治本,改堵为疏才是正确选择。     

Residential water demand responds asymmetrically to rising and falling prices

This paper econometrically estimates residential water consumption in Germany between 2007 and 2013 based on a panel of almost 3000 supply areas. In particular, the analysis distinguishes periods of rising and falling water and sewage water prices. The short-run (long-run) price elasticity is estimated at around 4.2% (13%), but water demand appears to respond asymmetrically to rising and falling prices. When prices are rising, the short-run (long-run) price elasticity is around 6.5% (17%). When prices are falling, the short-run price elasticity is not statistically different from zero, and the long-run price elasticity is estimated at around 12%. Additional results illustrate that employing average prices instead of marginal prices results in substantially overestimating the price elasticity. These findings are particularly relevant for utilities and regulators planning to alter the tariff structure towards a higher fixed fee and a lower volumetric fee.     

IMPACT OF TAX, TRANSFER, AND EXPENDITURE POLICIES OF GOVERNMENT ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF PERSONAL INCOME IN CANADA

This is a study of the first order incidence of government taxation and expenditure policies on the incomes of families and unattached individuals in Canada in 1970. The specific purposes of the study are twofold. The first is to estimate for calendar year 1970 the first order incidence of governments'actual tax, transfer, and expenditure policies on spending units. The second objective is to simulate the changes in this incidence that would have occurred in 1970 if the new federal personal income tax, unemployment insurance, old age sccurity and family allowance programs had been in operation during that year. The methodology is similar to that used by W. Irwin Gillespie in his pioneering 1964 study for the Royal Commission on Taxation.
It is concluded that the 1970 incidence of the combined tax and transfer programs of all levels of government is broadly redistributive, with net incidence of federal government programs being considerably more redistributive than that of provincial and local governments. In general, the public sector provides large net benefits to families and individuals with incomes of less than $4,000, declining net benefits to families earning from $4,000 to $11,000 and levies small but increasing levels of net tax on families and individuals with incomes in excess of $11,000. This general conclusion is relatively insensitive to the precise assumptions made about the shifting of taxes and the distribution of expenditures on pure public goods. From simulation experiments, recent reforms of the federal income tax, unemployment insurance, old age security and family allowance systems were estimated to increase the amount of redistribution from the rich to the poor.     

The dependence structure between the Canadian stock market and the USD/CAD exchange rate: a copula approach

Abstract This paper investigates the dependence structure between the real Canadian stock returns and the real USD/CAD exchange rate returns, using the Symmetrized Joe‐Clayton (SJC) copula function. We estimate the SJC copula with monthly data over the period 1995:1 to 2006:12. Our results show significant asymmetric static and dynamic tail dependence between the real stock returns and the real exchange rate returns, such that the two returns are more dependent in the left than in the right tail of their joint distribution. We explain this asymmetric dependence in terms of an asymmetric interest rate policy by Canadian monetary authorities in response to changes in the real exchange rate during sub‐periods of falling and rising commodity prices.     

THE TREATMENT OF STOCK APPRECIATION IN THE MEASUREMENT OF NATIONAL INCOME*

In the latest official national income publication the Australian Commonwealth Statistician has altered the treatment of stock appreciation in the measurement of national income at current prices. Previously, stock appreciation had been included in both national expenditure and national product. Now the amount of stock appreciation (the difference between the change in the value of stocks and the value of the change in stocks) has been deducted from investment in stocks, and consequently national expenditure, and from trading incomes, and consequently national income. The former procedure (including stock appreciation in national expenditure and national product) had been advocated by the present author, when editor of the first official national income publications issued by the Commonwealth Statistician. In this note an attempt is made to set out the reasons for this view. A new approach is also suggested for handling the item of stock appreciation in national income accounts, which does not rest on the assumption that stock appreciation is a capital gain which should be excluded from trading incomes and national product.     

THE IMPACT OF CHANGES IN TERMS OF TRADE ON A SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS: AN ATTEMPTED SYNTHESIS*

The objective of this paper is to reformulate the terms of trade effect within a framework of national accounts in constant prices. The issue has been discussed by Professor R. C. Geary, Dr. G. Stuvel and others. In what follows the author proposes a new formula for deflating the net factor income from abroad and the net lending to the rest of the world. It is shown that the terms of trade effect which follows from the formula be expressed as a synthesis of Geary's and Stuvel's approaches. The author also shows that a similar approach be applied to the construction of the sector production account in constant prices. By formulating an appropriate deflator which is right for deflating factor incomes he concludes that the terms of trade arising from changes in inputs prices relative to output price be closely associated with the term which expresses the effect of productivity changes.     

北京市60年城市空间发展及展望

通过分析北京市60年来在人口、居住、产业、社会等方面取得的成就以及相应空间格局的演变,表明北京市人口质量与居住水平不断上升,居住空间向多元化和郊区化发展;产业结构调整加快,现代服务业、高新技术产业和现代制造业快速兴起,文化与创意产业、旅游业蓬勃发展,产业空间呈现快速扩张与多元化的特点;文化与生态建设步伐加快,新的都市文化和理念逐渐建立,符号消费异军突起,社会分化日益显现;各种新的城市空间使得城市空间发展更趋复杂化。未来北京城市空间调整与城市转型更加深化,将形成分散多中心结构的世界城市。     

ON THE LIVING ARRANGEMENTS OF ELDERLY WIDOWS*

Between 1970 and 1990, the share of elderly widows living alone grew by 23.2% in the United States, whereas those living with their children decreased by a similar amount. We pose a variety of models for determining the living arrangements in which living together increases consumption because of economies of scale and may also provide utility directly. We estimate these models using the 1970 data and obtain an excellent fit. The estimated models predict that changes in the incomes of both the widow and her offspring generate three‐quarters of the increase in the number of widows living alone.     

抑制我国房地产市场过度投机的政策研究

房价的过快上涨引起了社会的普遍关注,如何抑制房价的过度波动成为政府管理的重要目标。从中国房价的实际来看,很多研究者认为是投机推动了房价的较大波动。中国房价的上涨已经无法用价值规律和其他经济学原理来加以解释,很多城市的房价收入比和房屋租售比远远超过国际警戒线,如此离谱的涨幅背后,房地产投机炒作行为功不可没,抑制投机成为关键的手段。利用有关模型,本文分析了投机动力的产生机理,并且研究了房地产市场中过度投机产生的原因,包括投机的进入门槛低,地方政府、住宅房产的特性和不完善的租赁市场等对投机的影响等。根据这些诱因,从防止出现金融危机和削弱投机动力降低投机预期收益的角度,可能的政策组合包括建立和完善保降性住房政策、改革政绩考核指标、完善税制结构、取消预售制度或建立预售款第三方托管制度和完善租赁市场等。     

Geographies of injustice: the socio-spatial determinants of energy poverty in Poland,the Czech Republic and Hungary

Falling real incomes, rising utility prices and the historically poor thermal quality of the housing stock are some of the main factors that have driven the rise of systemic injustices surrounding energy poverty in the post-communist states of Eastern and Central Europe (ECE). We undertake a socio-spatial and temporal assessment of energy poverty in Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland, using Household Budget Survey micro-data and the consolidated national results of the EU Survey of Income and Living Conditions. Our results indicate that increases in domestic energy prices and expenditures during the last decade have not been offset by purchasing power gains or energy efficiency improvements, resulting in sustained and growing levels of energy poverty. Capital city regions have fared better than rural areas even if traditional macroeconomic performance indicators do not easily match domestic energy deprivation metrics. We thus question policy approaches that favour income-based solutions and fail to recognise housing- and demography-related vulnerabilities.