HOW MUCH DOES INDUSTRY MATTER,REALLY?

In this paper, we examine the importance of year, industry, corporate-parent, and business-specific effects on the profitability of U.S. public corporations within specific 4-digit SIC categories. Our results indicate that year, industry, corporate-parent, and business-specific effects account for 2 percent, 19 percent, 4 percent, and 32 percent, respectively, of the aggregate variance in profitability. We also find that the importance of the effects differs substantially across broad economic sectors. Industry effects account for a smaller portion of profit variance in manufacturing but a larger portion in lodging/entertainment, services, wholesale/retail trade, and transportation. Across all sectors we find a negative covariance between corporate-parent and industry effects. A detailed analysis suggests that industry, corporate-parent, and business-specific effects are related in complex ways. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Construction Cycles in the United States Since World War II*

The article analyzes the cycles of total construction and its major sectors after adjustment for the varying growth trends of real expenditures. Fluctuations in GNP and business fixed investment serve as “reference cycles.” The findings elucidate the relationships between cycles in total construction and its components and between construction and GNP cycles. Special analyses are devoted to the movements of public versus private construction expenditures and to the “countercyclical” behavior of residential building. The paper shows increasing volatility of private construction over time and substantial inter-sector differences in average volatility. Although public policies have a strong potential influence on the cyclical performance of construction, the complexities revealed in the study indicate severe problems in attempts to stabilize its output.     

Regional trade,government policy and food security: Recent evidence from Zambia

Given heavy dependence on rainfed maize production, countries in East and Southern Africa must routinely cope with pronounced production and consumption volatility in their primary food staple. Typical policy responses include increased food aid flows, government commercial imports and stock releases, and tight controls on private sector trade. This paper examines recent evidence from Zambia, using a simple economic model to assess the likely impact of maize production shocks on the domestic maize price and on staple food consumption under alternative policy regimes. In addition to an array of public policy instruments, the analysis evaluates the impact of two key private sector responses in moderating food consumption volatility – private cross-border maize trade and consumer substitution of an alternate food staple (cassava) for maize. The analysis suggests that, given a favorable policy environment, private imports and increased cassava consumption together could fill roughly two-thirds of the maize consumption shortfall facing vulnerable households during drought years.     

CONTRACTING FOR GOVERNMENT SERVICES: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM U.S. CITIES*

Local governments can provide services with their own employees or by contracting with private or public sector providers. We develop a model of this ‘make‐or‐buy’ choice that highlights the trade‐off between productive efficiency and the costs of contract administration. We construct a dataset of service provision choices by U.S. cities and identify a range of service and city characteristics as significant determinants of contracting decisions. Our analysis suggests an important role for economic efficiency concerns, as well as politics, in contracting for government services.     

中国制造业服务化的发展特点——基于中美日德英法的投入产出分析

文章采用投入产出分析方法研究中国与发达国家制造业服务化的趋势。结果表明,中国制造业服务化并没有出现与发达国家制造业服务化相一致的发展趋势,中国制造业的中间投入中来自生产性服务业的投入有所下降,主要是由于制造业对批发零售贸易业和金融保险业的依赖度减少所引起的。这主要是由于中国制造业处于国际产业链的低端环节、中国服务业发展滞后、服务业内部化现象严重、金融市场建设明显滞后所造成的。因此,加快我国制造业服务化进程,促进我国产业升级必须立足于加快现代服务业尤其是现代生产性服务业的发展,健全市场制度、完善市场环境,促进生产性服务业的外部化、专业化发展以及扭转我国制造业在国际分工中的不利地位。     

Inventory investment and sectoral characteristics in some OECD countries

This paper discusses the effects of sectoral structure on the long run macroeconomic inventory behaviour of national economies. Data on 15 OECD countries are included in the analysis, which is based on correlation and cluster analysis methodologies. The study is part of a long-term research project exploring factors influencing the inventory behaviour of national economies.First, we introduce some basic characteristics of macroeconomic inventory formation in the 15 OECD countries. We argue that our previous results on the existence of specific characteristic features of macroeconomic inventory investment are justified, hence it makes sense to study the factors influencing these features. We then examine the contribution of various sectors to the production of in the countries involved and the relationship between sectoral structure and inventory intensity (annual inventory change/Gross Value Added). We find that the high share of agriculture and manufacturing increases inventory intensity, that the increasing share of services has a negative effect and that the role of construction and trade is not obvious. The relatively low stability of the statistical results warns us to be cautious with our judgements. Further, case-by-case analysis would be required to obtain more solid results.     

Managing the Trade‐off between Ambiguity and Volatility in New Product Development

Uncertainty is widely recognized to be a key contingency influencing optimal new product development processes. However, extant new product research treats uncertainty in a largely unidimensional manner. Even in studies where multiple dimensions of uncertainty are measured, they are hypothesized to behave in a similar manner. This paper advances a theory describing how ambiguity and volatility place different and conflicting demands on new product development processes. Drawing on ideas from the organization theory and learning literatures, the theory suggests that more ambiguous environments favor slower development processes based on larger samples of data and interpretations whereas more volatile environments favor faster and more flexible development processes. Five hypotheses are advanced suggesting that as the level of ambiguity increases (decreases) relative to the level of volatility, firms should respond by decreasing (increasing) the role of top management in new product development, increasing (decreasing) front‐end and back‐end participation, allocating more (less) time and effort to ideation, and using more (less) aggressive screening processes. Some of these hypotheses are highly intuitive (participation and screening) while others are counterintuitive (top management involvement and screening aggressiveness). The theory is tested using primary data on the development of 120 new products and their subsequent performance collected from firms in U.S. manufacturing industries. The data largely confirm the hypotheses and provide strong evidence of a trade‐off between ambiguity and volatility that can be managed to improve new product performance. The exception is back‐end participation, which should be lower in relatively more ambiguous environments, in contrast to the hypothesis. A comparison with three alternative models shows that ambiguity generally has a larger impact on appropriate new product development processes and success than either the level of volatility or the overall level of environmental uncertainty. A detailed examination of the estimated relationships shows that for ideation and screening, the relative level of ambiguity and volatility determines optimal new product development processes, whereas for top management involvement and participation, processes can be designed based primarily on the level of ambiguity alone, with less concern over the degree of volatility. The study highlights the importance of considering the composition of uncertainty in addition to its overall level in contingent approaches to new product development. Real‐world examples of highly ambiguous and highly volatile new product development contexts are discussed.     

Housing Price Volatility Changes and Their Effects

We examine significant volatility shifts in regional housing price changes, adapting a method of Haugen, Talmor and Torous (1991) independent of predefined sampling blocks. We identify 36 volatility events, most of which are purely regional, but three of which are national. We find significant associations of volatility events and economic conditions, especially national and regional income growth, inflation, and interest rates. During an initial adjustment period after a volatility shift, realized housing returns move opposite to volatility. We find evidence of significant interregional diffusion of volatility increases, but not of decreases. New insights on links between economic conditions and housing volatility and returns should be of value to household investors and mortgage investors.     

It's Been A Hard Day's Night: The Concentration and Intensification of Work in Late Twentieth‐Century Britain

This paper presents evidence on trends in work pressure in late twentieth‐century Britain. The main findings are: (1) Average hours of work levelled off at the start of the 1980s, following a long historic fall, but have not increased since. However, the dispersion of hours has increased, and working hours have been concentrated into fewer households. (2) Work effort has been intensified since 1981. Intensification was greatest in manufacturing during the 1980s, and in the public sector during the 1990s. (3) Between 1986 and 1997 there have been substantial increases in the number of sources of pressure inducing hard work from employees.     

Design Reuse in Manufacturing and Services*

Most professionals, actively engaged in design, live in a world of trade‐offs. The most typical compromise is that reducing the cost of design causes quality to suffer, but there are many others as well. This paper summarizes current use of one of the most popular approaches to improving the new offering development process: design reuse. In the present study 42 companies were surveyed, of which 23 were in manufacturing and 19 were in services—but all were actively engaged in technology and design reuse in new offerings. It was hypothesized that policies for design reuse and internal sourcing would promote the complexity and breadth of reuse (here the combination of modular and architectural substitution), which, in turn would dampen the percentage of substitution and reduce the negative impact on innovativeness of new offerings. These predictions were generally supported. Adoption of policies for encouragement or to mandate design reuse were significantly correlated with the extent of reuse (application of both architectural and modular design vs. just one or the other) among manufacturers but not services firms in the sample. Internal sourcing of ideas for design reuse was significantly correlated with extent of reuse for the total sample, and especially for services. Design reuse percentage and extent of design reuse were significantly and inversely associated for manufacturing, as predicted, but not for services. Novelty of new offerings was significantly and inversely related to percentage of reuse, as predicted, for manufacturing, but not for services. It was found that sector also makes a difference in likelihood of adopting higher levels of reuse with service company respondents reporting significantly higher levels (average of 42% reuse for services and 28% for manufacturing applications). Perhaps one of the most interesting preliminary findings to emerge was that the tipping point of negative impact from design reuse percentage on innovativeness for all firms in the sample of new offerings was 43%, beyond which novelty suffers. For manufacturing, the tipping point was lower: Novelty begins to suffer after 33% design reuse, which has important management implications. The conclusion was drawn, based on these preliminary results, that much can be done to relieve some of the negative consequences of the typical trade‐offs commonly encountered in development programs for new offerings, especially when cost, timing, and innovation are the target goals. However, services and manufacturing are quite different in their approach to design reuse and substitution. Further development of the concept of design reuse strategy appears to be warranted based on these preliminary findings. The findings raise the distinct possibility that mesolevel strategic aggregation issues might lead research into areas that help explain how complex systems realize their full self‐organizing potential and why corporate strategy considerations, alone, have failed to explain the success and failure of organizations coping in rugged landscapes.     

Competition in telecommunications

The author examines the impact of competition from both domestic and international perspectives. He provides a critique of the pro-competition argument, although a number of advantages of competition are also outlined. The advantages are discussed in relation to equipment and services. International trends towards competition are then described and the disadvantages of such trends are debated in relation to cross-subsidization, interconnection, the telecommunications manufacturing industry, and the market structure. Finally, competition in the international arena is discussed.     

Do markets and trade help or hurt the global food system adapt to climate change?

Rapidly expanding global trade in the past three decades has lifted millions out of people out of poverty. Trade has also reduced manufacturing wages in high income countries and made entire industries uncompetitive in some communities, giving rise to nationalist politics that seek to stop or reverse further trade expansion in the United States and Europe. Given complex and uncertain political support for trade, how might changes in trade policy affect the global food system’s ability to adapt to climate change? Here we argue that we can best understand food security in a changing climate as a double exposure: the exposure of people and processes to both economic and climate-related shocks and stressors. Trade can help us adapt to climate change, or not. If trade restrictions proliferate, double exposure to both a rapidly changing climate and volatile markets will likely jeopardize the food security of millions. A changing climate will present both opportunities and challenges for the global food system, and adapting to its many impacts will affect food availability, food access, food utilization and food security stability for the poorest people across the world. Global trade can continue to play a central role in assuring that global food system adapts to a changing climate. This potential will only be realized, however, if trade is managed in ways that maximize the benefits of broadened access to new markets while minimizing the risks of increased exposure to international competition and market volatility. For regions like Africa, for example, enhanced transportation networks combined with greater national reserves of cash and enhanced social safety nets could reduce the impact of ‘double exposure’ on food security.     

Regime Shifts in Asian Equity and Real Estate Markets

This paper applies a new statistical technology for identifying regime shifts to analyze recent data on real estate and equity markets in eight developing Far Eastern countries in the 1992–1998 time period. We find that regime shifts in volatility occur in the summer of 1997; however, most of the regime shifts in returns occur in the spring of 1998. While the clustering of regime breaks does not seem to follow any obvious pattern, the country's exposure to trade and firm leverage are important. An analysis of Granger causality suggests that, in most cases, equity returns cause real estate returns but the converse is not true. We also find two-way causality in volatility, suggesting that a common factor drives volatility in these markets. Finally, we provide evidence that the regime shifts generally imply higher relative risk for real estate securities after the estimated breaks.     

How do inputs and weather drive wheat yield volatility? The example of Germany

Increases in cereals production risk are commonly related to increases in weather risk. We analyze weather-induced changes in wheat yield volatility as a systemic weather risk in Germany. We disentangle, however, the relative impacts of inputs and weather on regional yield volatility. For this purpose we augment a production function with phenologically aggregated weather variables. Increasing volatility can be traced back to weather changes only in some regions. On average, inputs explain 49% of the total actual wheat yield volatility, while weather explains 43%. Models with only weather variables deliver biased but reasonable approximations for climate impact research.     

数字贸易赋能制造业质量变革机制与效应——来自跨境电子商务综合试验区的准自然实验

数字贸易已经成为全球发展的趋势。本文使用2009~2020年沪深A股制造业上市公司,以跨境电子商务综试区设立为“准自然实验”,探究数字贸易赋能制造业质量变革的作用机制与效应,结果发现:(1)设立跨境电子商务综试区能够显著提高企业全要素生产率,数字贸易推动制造业企业质量升级;(2)机制分析发现,数字贸易使得企业能获得和使用市场中更多的信息来满足消费者,提升了企业研发创新能力,进而提升企业质量。数字贸易对出口企业质量升级的影响大于非出口企业,数字贸易对两者的影响途径存在差异;(3)异质性分析表明,政治资源诅咒与基础设施限制,使数字贸易对非国有企业和高互联网发展水平制造业企业质量升级的影响更加明显;(4)数字贸易赋能制造业升级具有出口提升效应,数字贸易提升了制造业企业出口产品质量、产品种类与海外市场。本文结论对理解数字贸易在我国制造业质量改革中发挥的作用,以及数字贸易政策实践具有借鉴意义。     

对外贸易与中国制造业发展：基于可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型的模拟分析

运用CGE模型模拟分析了对外贸易对我国制造业主要行业的产出、收益及投资水平的作用效果。分析结果显示,制造业产出、收益和投资变化率与对外贸易变化率呈正相关;除了金属行业的收益增长率在贸易小幅增长时,其行业的收益率高于贸易的增长率以外,其余行业的贸易的增长率均大于各行业收益增长率,低于投资增长率;而贸易的小幅增长对于纺织业、金属行业、炼焦、煤气和石油加工业的收益水平的提升更有利;贸易的高度增长对于具有增长潜力的机械行业更有利;对于食品制造业、化学行业、非金属矿物制品业来讲贸易的适度增长对行业发展更有利。由此提出在大力发展制造业贸易的同时,要针对各行业对贸易的不同敏感程度,合理的调整产业政策,发挥技术创新能力,以此提升制造业的贸易利得。     

Local Immigration Enforcement and Local Economies

We examine the impacts of a locally enforced immigration program—287(g)—on private employer reports to the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. Using contiguous‐county pairs to account for time‐varying local economic shocks, we identify impacts on immigrant‐intensive industries that are robust to prepolicy time trends, implementation timing, and the exclusion of pairs with large prepolicy differences. Reported employment was 4 percent higher in manufacturing, but 7–10 percent lower in administrative services. These results are consistent with adverse labor‐supply shocks, and, to a lesser extent, a decline in labor demand for locally produced goods and services.     

Which Service? How Industry Conditions Shape Firms’ Service‐Type Choices

This article studies the role of industry conditions as determinants of manufacturing and software firms’ decisions to offer services. It draws on the competence perspective on industry evolution and servitization to theorize and provide empirical evidence on how industry conditions affect firms’ choice to offer two distinct types of services—product‐oriented services and customer‐oriented services. It is argued that firms are likely to offer product‐oriented services in Schumpeterian industry environments to address high technological uncertainty by leveraging and reinforcing capabilities in the existing technology. In contrast, firms are likely to offer customer‐oriented services in non‐Schumpeterian industry environments to address value generation uncertainty by building competences in new technological or market areas. Based on longitudinal data on 410 public firms from manufacturing industries and the software industry, empirical evidence suggests that firms are indeed more likely to offer product‐oriented services in Schumpeterian industry environments, such as in the early stage of the industry life cycle and under conditions of high R&D intensity and competition, whereas they are more likely to offer customer‐oriented services in non‐Schumpeterian environments, such as in the later stages of the industry life cycle and in highly cyclical industries.     

要素价格扭曲与中国工业企业出口行为

"对内改革"是"对外开放"的国内背景;中国"对内改革"渐进性诱发的要素市场扭曲是中国"对外开放"面临的独特约束。基于这一判断,本文从要素价格扭曲视角,利用1999—2007年中国微观企业数据,重新审视中国企业出口行为。结论认为:中国工业企业要素价格存在严重负向扭曲并有增加趋势;东部地区、外资、港澳台资和私营企业扭曲程度最高;总体上看,要素价格负向扭曲促进了中国企业出口。这意味着,中国出口奇迹离不开要素价格负向扭曲;中国企业将国内"生产要素应得"通过低价出口形式转移给了国外消费者;贸易规模扩大、贸易结构优化的同时,更应注意贸易利益分配。     

中国制造业贸易成本的测度

传统贸易成本的估计采用缺乏微观基础且基于对称性假设的理论模型,本文利用克服以上缺点的模型,估计了中国与主要贸易伙伴之间制造业各产业的贸易成本,结果显示:1997—2007年,中国与主要贸易伙伴的贸易成本在制造业各产业上都表现出不同程度的逐年下降趋势,在制造业所有的产业中,高技术型制成品贸易成本最低,下降幅度最大。在主要贸易伙伴中,中国与日本、韩国的贸易成本低于欧美国家。中国与欧美等发达国家之间存在较大的技术鸿沟,高技术产业仍处于国际产品内分工的低端环节。因此,国家亟待调整和出台国际贸易及相关支持政策,引导、促进中国制造业在国际产业价值链中加快升级,减少贸易成本。