Impacts of the Rise of China on Developing Country Trade: Evidence from North Africa*

Abstract: Despite the global financial and economic crisis, China has continued to experience strong export‐driven growth and, indeed, became the world's largest exporting country in 2009. This rise of China in international markets presents African countries with growing competition in their home and export markets, but also with new opportunities. This paper focuses on the impacts of these developments on countries in North Africa, which are directly affected by the prominence of Chinese manufacturing. In particular, the analysis addresses two policy questions: First, is competition from China leading to substantial displacement of resources that incur significant adjustment costs while moving to new activities, or are there opportunities to exploit finer patterns of specialization that entail less disruption? And second, will policies that mitigate the impact of competition from China limit the longer‐term capacity to exploit new opportunities in the global market? The findings from the empirical analysis suggest that policy makers can support North African producers in the increasingly fierce competition with China by reviewing the regulatory and incentives environment, reducing trade logistics costs, and broadening trade promotion efforts to non‐traditional markets.     

TPP谈判及其对中美贸易的影响

由于多哈回合停滞不前和全球贸易结构尤其是服务贸易结构趋向高级化,加上美国的强力推动,全球贸易规则不断演进,TPP谈判的影响力越来越大。TPP谈判涵盖的内容非常广泛,不仅要求开放服务业,还关注贸易背后的诸如劳工和环境标准的问题,其谈判的分歧取决于谈判各方在多大程度上接受美国的贸易规则。一旦TPP施行,美国服务贸易的优势将得到增强,并且美国贸易商将获得规则上的优势。而对于中国而言,TPP的施行将给中国出口带来负面影响,但中国可以选择深度开放、加强双边或区域经济合作以及利用上海自贸区对TPP规则进行融合等方式来应对TPP的影响。     

多哈回合谈判全面中止的政治经济学分析

2006年7月持续近5年之久的世贸组织多哈回合全球贸易谈判全面中止。多哈回合谈判全面中止产生的最重要影响是打击了人们对多边贸易体系的信心，从而可能引发新一轮的区域和双边贸易自由化谈判并由此加剧贸易保护主义。从历史经验来看，多哈回合谈判中止可能仅是暂时性的，经过发达成员和发展中成员的积极努力，最终会重启并完成新一轮全球贸易谈判。     

Impacts of the Doha Round on Brazilian,Chinese and Indian agribusiness

The central themes to be addressed during the Doha Round of the world trade negotiations are the reduction of the agricultural production and export subsidies and improved market access for agricultural and non-agricultural goods. The G-20 group wields enough power to press negotiations at the Doha Round toward lower agricultural trade barriers and production and export subsidies. The objective of this study is to determine the impacts of the Doha Round on the economies of Brazil, China, and India. The Global Trade Analysis Project's (GTAP) general equilibrium model and database (version 7) are used. The Doha Round scenarios simulated in this paper consider the WTO agricultural production and export subsidy reduction requirement, and the application of the Harbinson approach, and Swiss formula to reduce import tariffs. Brazil and China present the highest GDP growth rate varying from 0.4 % to 1.4%. India shows a negative GDP growth rate in all scenarios, except in that which replicates the Uruguay Round. The welfare gains are positive, but small, for Brazil, China and India. The GDP loss observed in the economies of the EU25 and the US may make it difficult to reach a trade agreement at the Doha Round.     

Free Trade Agreements and the SADC Economies

Countries in southern Africa have engaged in a variety of tradeliberalisation initiatives such as the European Union (EU)–SouthAfrica Free Trade Agreement (FTA), the EU's ‘Everythingbut Arms’ (EBA) initiative to eliminate trade barriersagainst imports from the least developed countries and a potentialFTA among Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries.In this paper we use a multi-country computable general equilibrium(CGE) model to analyse the impact of trade liberalisation inthe region. First, we analyse the FTA between South Africa andthe EU. Then, we consider how the rest of southern Africa mightrespond: (i) by enforcing an SADC FTA; (ii) by exploiting theadvantages of unilateral access to the EU in addition to anSADC FTA; and (iii) by entering an FTA with the EU and otherSADC countries. The scenarios are ordered such that the SADCcountries pursue increased trade liberalisation. We find thatunder all FTA arrangements the increased total imports fromFTA partners exceeds the reduction in imports from non-FTA partners— the FTAs examined are all net trade creating. Some SADCeconomies are slightly hurt by the FTA between the EU and SouthAfrica, while others gain slightly. Overall, the agreement isnot a beggar-thy-neighbour policy. We also find that unilateralaccess to the EU is more beneficial for SADC countries thanan SADC FTA because the SADC countries trade more with the EUthan with each other. However, reciprocal reforms under an EU–SADCFTA dominate unilateral access to the EU because they requiremore structural adjustment in the SADC countries. Finally, wefind that South Africa is not large enough to serve as a growthpole for the region. Access to EU markets provides substantiallybigger gains for the other SADC countries than access to SouthAfrica.     

多哈回合的进展、困境及其原因探析

多哈回合自启动以来已艰难地跋涉了近七个年头。尽管谈判已有相当的进展和积累,但是随着前不久小型部长级会议在农业特别保障措施等焦点议题上的再次受挫,今年结束谈判的希望基本落空。事实上,议题的复杂性、发展水平的差异性、利益取向的多元化,特别是WTO成员内部结构的权力变化导致"联盟化"博弈等诸多因素,正是多哈回合旷日持久、一波三折、陷入困境的主要原因。在世界经济增速减缓的背景下,如何重整旗鼓,破解难题,使2009年成为多哈回合的终结年,这是WTO所有成员面临的重大挑战。     

Going beyond Cancun: Realizing the development promise of the Doha agenda

The launch of a new trade round in Doha in November 2001 was a major breakthrough following the discord in Seattle in 1999. The Doha Round is the first set of multilateral trade negotiations in which the needs and interests of developing countries have been officially declared a priority and whose conclusion deemed essential. However, the failure of the Doha negotiations in Cancun in September 2003 was a major setback. The trade talks are now stalled in several policy domains vital to developing countries such as agriculture, non‐farm trade, access to patented drugs, special and differential treatment and dispute settlement, and in areas of interest to the developed countries such as the “Singapore issues” dealing with investment, competition, trade facilitation and government procurement This paper discusses the reasons behind the failure, its wider implications as well as the policies that member governments of the World Trade Organization (WTO) will need to make to move beyond Cancun.     

多哈回合谈判的困局及出路

经过近九个年头的谈判,多哈回合仍然没有任何结果,让人觉得前途暗淡。然而必须看到,多哈回合的胜利完成,一方面,会带来更大的贸易自由化;另一方面,可以抵御日渐抬头的贸易保护主义;而它的失败则会对全球贸易带来严重后果。因此,针对目前的僵局,发达国家应该做出更多让步;小国家则应该组成不同的集团,以集团代表的方式参加各项议题的讨论;而谈判委员会主席的工作和职权则应该受到更多的约束。只有各方都做出调整,谈判才有可能顺利完成。     

中国对非援助的出口贸易效应——基于出口增加值的视角

基于Eora26投入产出表数据和全球中国官方金融数据库，本文检验了中国对非援助与中国对非出口增加值的因果关系及机制。研究结果显示：(1)中国对非援助可以显著提升中国对非出口增加值，在进行了一系列的稳健性检验和处理了内生性问题后，该结论依然成立；(2)提高非洲国家的交通和通信设施质量是中国对非援助影响出口增加值的主要机制；(3)中国对非援助的出口增加值效应会随产业分类、援助类型的不同而产生差异；(4)进一步研究表明，非洲接受的DAC发展委员会国家和国际多边组织援助的“碎片化”会削弱中国对非援助的出口增加值的促进作用，这种影响在经济实力和政府治理能力较弱的非洲国家更为明显。本文的结论为中国对非援助的贸易效应提供了进一步的经验支持，并揭示了中国对非援助影响中国对非出口增加值的内在规律。这对于加强中非经贸关系，构建“中非命运共同体”具有重要意义。     

FTA、联盟外部性与多哈困境

WTO多边贸易体制的困境使得谈判主体达成一致协议的交易成本不断提高,利益成员在多哈回合不能实质突破的情况下会积极寻求体制外的有效安排。自由贸易协定自然导致联盟外部性,领导国对多边谈判议价和序列谈判议价的选择取决于跟随国存在正或负的联盟外部性。现实情况表明美国更倾向于自由贸易协定的建设,而客观形成了对多边贸易体制的阻碍作用。中国自由贸易协定建设起步较晚,应积极推动与不同发展程度国家贸易磋商与谈判,以加强中国外贸可持续发展的战略合作。     

China's WTO Commitments in Agriculture and Impacts of Potential OECD Agricultural Trade Liberalizations*

After accession to the WTO, China's agriculture is affected by the implementation of its WTO commitments and will be impacted by any multilateral liberalization (actions by the rich OECD economies in particular) resulting from the Doha negotiations. Using the actual commitment data, our computable general equilibrium simulation results show that China's WTO commitments will lead to increased agricultural imports and slightly declined outputs in China. The resulting efficiency gains will be negated by terms‐of‐trade losses, leading to quantitatively small welfare impacts. Furthermore, sectoral results depend critically on correctly representing the more complex policy measures, such as the tariff rate quotas. The negative output effects on Chinese agriculture can be alleviated/reversed if the rich OECD countries commit to reform their agriculture policies. The present paper concludes that trade liberalization should be carried out in both developing and developed countries. Reforming the latter will be particularly helpful in easing the problems facing those developing countries that are carrying out ambitious trade reforms.     

The Role of Trade Policies in Building Regional Value Chains – Some Preliminary Evidence From Africa

Regional value chains (RVCs) are considered as an important step towards greater integration into global value chains (GVCs), but African countries trade very little value added with each other. Based on the UNCTAD‐Eora GVC database, this paper estimates a panel model from 2006 to 2012 for 37 African countries and sheds light on the role of trade costs in building RVCs in Africa. First evidence is provided for a significantly negative effect on foreign value added of charged tariffs on capital goods and higher time to trade. In addition, higher regulatory quality and a stronger telecommunication infrastructure seem to be positively correlated with a country's ability to participate in RVCs.     

多哈回合谈判现状及我国的策略选择

“巴厘一揽子协定”是多哈回合谈判的“早期收获”,但因协定并未涉及分歧较大的议题,加之WTO谈判机制的弊端仍然存在,区域贸易主义又呈现蒸蒸日上的发展趋势,多哈回合谈判依然前途未卜.我国作为最大贸易国,应当积极参与WTO的规则制定,明确谈判立场,在充分考量利弊的基础上选择最优的策略应对多哈回合的每一议题.     

美韩FTA对中国出口的贸易替代效应研究

美国和韩国于2007年6月正式签署了自由贸易协定。两国都是中国重要的出口市场,中美和中韩出口结构存在一定的竞争性。美韩FTA将会使中国出口产品面临相对较高的关税,差异性的关税可能使美国市场上中国出口产品被韩国替代,同时,韩国市场上中国出口产品也可能被美国替代。本文考察了三国HS2位编码产品的国际竞争力和平均实施关税,以定量估计美韩FTA对中国造成的贸易替代效应。结果表明,在美国市场上,中国的纺织品和服装出口将受到明显影响;在韩国市场上,中国农产品和工业品出口都会受到不同程度影响,且受影响的产品种类较多。     

服务贸易自由化发展的不平衡性分析

多哈回合以来,区域层次服务贸易自由化蓬勃发展,而以GATS为代表的多边层次服务贸易自由化进展相对有限.本文从多边和区域层次角度分析了服务贸易自由化发展呈现的不平衡性.     

中国RTAs发展及与拉美国家区域经济合作

本文通过对近年来中国区域贸易安排(RTAs)发展进程的分析,阐明了中国RTAs发展的特点。中国RTAs及其发展体现了多边贸易合作和双边贸易合作并举、广泛参与RTAs谈判活动、先易后难、策略灵活务实、选择的贸易合作对象与中国的经济具有较强的互补性等特点。在此基础上,文章进一步探讨了中国与拉美国家发展RTAs的利弊,认为在经济全球化的大背景下,中国是多边贸易制度的最大受益者之一。为此,在兼顾区域贸易合作发展的同时,要以长远的战略眼光促进WTO多哈回合谈判的成功。     

Building Complementarities in Africa between Different Development Cooperation Modalities of Traditional Development Partners and China

Abstract: China's relationship with Africa has grown exponentially over the last decade with US$95 billion in bilateral trade in 2008 and US$5.4 billion of Chinese investment in Africa for the same year. The growth of Sino‐African relations also has an impact on the role of traditional development partners in Africa in particular in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, which has already led some traditional development partners to reduce their aid budgets and subsequently their Official Development Assistance (ODA) flows to Africa. The objective of this paper is to analyse different development cooperation modalities in Africa of traditional development partners and China. This requires identifying trends in aid, debt relief, general budget support, trade, preferential trade access, and investment flows of both traditional development partners and China. The paper advocates that complementarities can be built between these development modalities on a national, regional and global level. This would enhance development effectiveness, increase efficiency and create win‐win situations which would be beneficial to African countries, China and traditional development partners.     

Trade and Competitiveness of African Economies in the 21st Century

One of the major challenges that may be confronting sub–Saharan African (SSA) economies in the 21st century is that of a changing North–South trading structure. An earlier study (Olofin, 1995), tried to show that close to the turn of the century, the SSA countries remained the only group of countries whose exports were predominantly primary products, complemented by trade in manufactured imports. In virtually every other region of the world, this pattern of trade had changed to a more competitive one. Most other nations had moved progressively away from primary exports to manufactured exports of the labour intensive type, and subsequently to more resource intensive manufactures. The single major development that has reshaped the terrain for global trade, and which will significantly influence the course of trade and international competitiveness in the 21st century, is the Uruguay Round (UR) negotiations. It produced the 1994 General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), and the subsequent World Trade Organization (WTO) treaty. Various analyses have shown (Sorsa, 1997) that the overall impact of UR trade liberalization on SSA countries may be quite insignificant at least in the short run. This is primarily because many of the provisions of the resulting WTO treaty do not cover the bulk of African trade, especially in respect of their exports. However, there is hardly any doubt that the GATT 1994/WTO treaty and its provisions would define the stage for global competition in production and trade in the 21st century. If SSA countries are not to be marginalized in the scheme of things over the medium to longer term, they will of necessity have to respond, if not to the immediate effects of the treaty on trade and competitiveness, at least to its longer–term ramifications. The resulting patterns of trade and competitiveness are likely to have far–reaching effects on the prospects for evolving a viable strategy for sustainable growth and development in these countries. The primary objective in this paper, therefore, is first to examine some of the implications of the outcome of the Uruguay Round negotiations for the external trade of sub–Saharan African countries as a bloc. Secondly, to identify some of the major obstacles to their competitiveness; and thirdly as a consequence, to be able to arrive at some form of research agenda, that should engage the attention of researchers and policy–makers alike within the region in the near to medium term. This is crucial, if appropriate policies are to emerge towards addressing the growing concerns on African marginalization in the face of increasing globalization. Les changements dans la structure des échanges entre le Nord et le Sud sont l’un des principaux défis auxquels les économies d’Afrique subsaharienne pourraient Átre confrontées au cours du 21ème siècle. Dans une étude précédente (Olofin, 1995), nous avons tenté de montrer qu’au tournant du siècle, l’Afrique subsaharienne reste l’unique région du monde dont les exportations sont essentiellement composées de produits primaires, complétées par des importations de produits manufacturés. Les négociations de l’Uruguay Round sont le seul élément nouveau majeur qui soit à l’origine de la recomposition de la physionomie du commerce mondial et qui exercera une influence significative sur l’évolution des échanges et de la compétitivité internationale au 21ème siècle. Ces négociations ont débouché sur l’Accord général sur les tarifs et le commerce (GATT) de 1994 ainsi que sur le traité subséquent relatif à l’Organisation mondiale du commerce (OMC). Diverses analyses (Sorsa, 1997) ont montré que la libéralisation du commerce, négociée dans le cadre de l’Uruguay Round, n’aura qu’un impact global mineur sur les pays d’Afrique subsaharienne, au moins à court terme. Le présent document examine l’évolution consécutive aux principaux accords internationaux régissant le commerce et le transfert de technologie. Il analyse ensuite le manque de compétitivité des prix des exportations traditionnelles africaines et définit la nature des défis que les pays subsahariens devront relever en vue de devenir compétitifs dans une économie mondiale en constante mutation, durant le 21ème siècle et au–delà. Ces défis sont présentés sous la forme d’un guide sur le programme de recherche que la communauté des chercheurs s’intéressant au développement de l’Afrique devra nécessairement réaliser afin de trouver des solutions efficaces au problème de la marginalisation du continent et de sa compétitivité décroissante dans l’économie globale.     

贸易自由化与环境保护的平衡——世界贸易组织框架下的环境保护机制探析

作为以促进贸易自由化为宗旨的国际组织,世界贸易组织在平衡贸易自由化与环境保护关系方面显得步履艰难。在制度设计上,世界贸易组织偏重于对贸易自由化的维护,而在案件审理实践中,争端解决机构则越来越顾及环境保护的要求。在新一轮的“多哈回合”中,各方对贸易与环境议题的争论和分歧较大,谈判的失败标志着世界贸易组织框架下的贸易和环境的利益平衡将面临着更多的挑战。     

贸易区域化下国际知识产权立法的新趋势及其应对

国际贸易区域化进程中,国际知识产权立法呈现若干新趋势,包括立法方式、立法标准的统一性、立法内容等方面的转变。上述趋势不仅限制了作为协定缔约方的发展中国家的立法空间,也给其他发展中国家带来负面影响。我国应制定相应策略,并联合其他发展中国家抵御上述趋势的负面影响。