Unemployment, Factor Substitution and Capital Formation

Abstract. We incorporate a wage-bargaining structure in a dynamic general equilibrium model and show how this feature changes short- and long-run properties of equilibria compared with a perfectly competitive setting. We discuss how employment, capital and income shares respond to wage-setting shocks and show that adjustment dynamics depend decisively on the magnitude of the elasticity of substitution between labour and capital. Values of the elasticity below unity add persistence, tend to preserve stability and lead to empirically plausible adjustment patterns. By contrast, values above unity introduce additional volatility, thereby making steady states potentially unstable.     

Exports,Supply Constraints and Growth: An Investigation using Regional Data

In this work we first model the role of demand‐ and supply‐side factors (labour market adjustment, productive efficiency) in explaining economic growth. Empirically testing the model, we evaluate why different growth regimes may appear in the 20 Italian administrative regions. This exercise uses a two‐stage econometric approach. Estimates for the elasticity of manufacturing output to exports are obtained from regional time series: a significant long‐run relationship indicates the existence of a demand‐constrained growth regime. We then ascertain whether the regional dispersion of supply‐side factors has an impact on the regional dispersion of growth regimes. The empirical evidence supports our expectations of strong regional differences. Southern regions are less likely to display demand‐constrained regimes. In explanation of these differences, second‐stage analysis reveals that a strong role is played by such efficiency‐enhancing factors as technological innovation, bank diffusion and ‘social capital’. No role is found for labour market rigidities.     

A NOTE ON PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION IN A LINEAR CITY AND WAGE BARGAINING

Economides (Economics Letters, 1986, 21, pp. 67–71) has shown that within a linear city an equilibrium exists in a two‐stage location–price game when the curvature of the transportation cost function is sufficiently high. One important point is that not all of these equilibria are at maximal differentiation. In this paper, we include an additional stage with decentralized wage bargaining. This intensifies price competition resulting in locations that are nearer to the extremes of the city. The magnitude of this effect depends on the bargaining power of the unions. Contrary to the model with exogenously given costs, if unions are sufficient strong all price equilibria in pure strategies are at maximal differentiation. With a low parameter for the curvature of the transportation cost function unions can improve the location decision from a social viewpoint.     

Dynamic factor demands and adjustment costs: An analysis of bell Canada's Technology

In this paper a dynamic model of production is estimated for Bell Canada. The dynamics arise from the costs of adjustment associated with capital expansion. Estimation results showed that there are significant adjustment costs. Thus, the hypothesis of long-run cost minimization is rejected. As Bell Canada increases its capital stock by $1, there are additional adjustment costs of $0.36. This result implies that Bell Canada minimizes the present value of production and adjustment costs which results in a short-run equilibrium position. Price, substitution and output elasticities are estimated. In the short-run the inputs are substitutes and the price effects are highly inelastic. Overshooting occurs with respect to labour and material demands in the short-run since the demand for capital responds very little to output expansion. Returns to scale are also estimated in this cost of adjustment model. Bell Canada exhibits increasing returns to scale initially and then decreasing returns such that on average there are constant returns to scale with a scale elasticity of 1.08.     

Supply-side effects of strong energy price hikes in German industry and transportation

This article studies the short-term effects of energy price hikes on the supply of industrial goods and transport services including the repercussions on remuneration of input factors. The empirical analysis is based on a theoretical model, which assumes that the output good is produced by capital, labour and energy according to a nested production function framework where capital and energy are combined by a CES function at the intermediate stage. The output responses to energy price changes are derived, using estimates of the elasticity of substitution. While industry suffered more from the oil price shock of the late 1970s than from that of the early 1970s and the 2004?C2008 upsurge, evidence suggests the reverse for transportation. Regarding the impact on income distribution, both sectors share the same pattern, whereby in the recent episode, rising energy costs were more than compensated by falling unit labour costs, while in the 1970s, cost structures had been strained by an expansive wage policy in addition to the oil price shocks.     

Two‐level CES Production Technology in the Solow and Diamond Growth Models*

The two‐level CES aggregate production function—that nests a CES into another CES function—has recently been used extensively in theoretical and empirical applications of macroeconomics. We examine the theoretical properties of this production technology and establish existence and stability conditions of steady states under the Solow and Diamond growth models. It is shown that in the Solow model the sufficient condition for a steady state is fulfilled for a wide range of substitution parameter values. This is in sharp contrast with the two‐factor Solow model, where only an elasticity of substitution equal to one is sufficient to guarantee the existence of a steady state. In the Diamond model, multiple equilibria can occur when the aggregate elasticity of substitution is lower than the capital share. Moreover, it is shown that for high initial levels of capital and factor substitutability, the effect of a further increase in a substitution parameter on the steady state depends on capital–skill complementarity.     

Cross-base tax elasticity of capital gains

This paper studies the cross-base tax elasticity of capital gains realizations to labour income taxes when capital gains are taxed at a separate proportional tax rate. Using a longitudinal panel of over 265 000 individuals in Sweden, this paper shows in a regression kink design that labour income taxes affect capital gains realizations in two ways. An increase in the marginal labour income tax rate increases the likelihood of realizing capital gains and the amount of realized capital gains. One implication of this result is that labour income taxes have a lock-out effect but that the magnitude of this effect is smaller than the lock-in effect of the actual capital gains tax.     

Microeconomic uncertainty and macroeconomic indeterminacy

We propose a stylized intertemporal macroeconomic model wherein the combination of decentralized trading and microeconomic uncertainty (taking the form of privately observed and uninsured idiosyncratic shocks) creates an information problem between agents and generates indeterminacy of the macroeconomic equilibrium. For a given value of the economic fundamentals, the economy admits a continuum of equilibria that can be indexed by the sales expectations of firms at the time of investment. The Walrasian equilibrium is one of these possible equilibria but it is reached only if firms are optimistic enough. With a weaker degree of optimism, equilibrium output, employment and real wages will be lower than in the Walrasian equilibrium. Moreover, the range of possible equilibria will depend positively on the wage elasticity of the labour supply and on the magnitude of the information problem between buyers and sellers (in our case, the variance of the idiosyncratic shocks).Stochastic simulations performed on a calibrated version of the model show that pure demand expectation shocks may generate business cycle statistics that are not inconsistent with the observed ones.     

Unemployment, wage bargaining and capital-labour substitution

Many economists believe that capital accumulation, technicalprogress and labour force expansion have no lasting effect onunemployment. This view rests on the empirically doubtful assumptionthat the elasticity of substitution between labour and capitalis equal to unity (i.e., production is Cobb-Douglas). Usinga simple model based on the work of Layard, Nickell and Jackman,this paper demonstrates that, with a lower elasticity of substitution,the equilibrium unemployment rate is affected by all of theabove factors. It considers briefly how capital accumulationmay be endogenised and what long-run implications this has forunemployment.     

Skilled–unskilled wage inequality,product variety,public input and increasing returns: A static general equilibrium analysis

The paper develops a four sector small open economy model with two traded final good sectors, a public intermediate good producing sector and a nontraded good sector producing varieties of intermediate goods. There are three primary factors: capital, skilled labour and unskilled labour. Industrial sector producing a traded good uses capital, intermediate goods and skilled labour as inputs. Intermediate goods producing sector also uses capital and skilled labour. Public input producing sector and the agricultural sector producing the other traded good use capital and unskilled labour as inputs. It is shown that, if production technologies are the same for the agricultural sector and the public input producing sector and if the scale elasticity of output is very low, then an increase in capital stock (unskilled labour endowment) raises (lowers) the skilled–unskilled wage ratio. However, an increase in skilled labour endowment does not produce any unambiguous effect. On the other hand, an increase in the tax rate on industrial output and/or an increase in the price of the agricultural product, armed with the same set of assumptions, lowers the skilled–unskilled wage ratio.     

Foreign investment and expropriation under oligarchy and democracy

We study the incentives to expropriate foreign capital under democracy and oligarchy. We model a two‐sector small open economy where foreign investment triggers Stolper–Samuelson effects through reducing exporting costs. The incentives to expropriate depend on the distributional effects associated to the investment. How investment affects the incomes of the different groups in society depends on the sectors where these investments are undertaken and on structural features of the economy such as factor intensity, factor substitutability, and price and output elasticities. We characterize the equilibria of the expropriation game and show that if investment is undertaken in the sector that uses labor less intensively then democratic expropriations are more likely to take place. We test this prediction and provide strong evidence of its validity.     

Bilateral oligopoly and quantity competition

Bilateral oligopoly is a market game with two commodities, allowing strategic behavior on both sides of the market. When the number of buyers is large, bilateral oligopoly approximates a game of quantity competition played by sellers. We present examples which show that this is not typically a Cournot game. Rather, we introduce an alternative game of quantity competition (the market share game) and, appealing to results in the literature on contests, show that this yields the same equilibria as the many-buyer limit of bilateral oligopoly, under standard assumptions on costs and preferences. We also show that the market share and Cournot games have the same equilibria if and only if the price elasticity of the latter is one and investigate the differences in equilibria otherwise. These results lead to necessary and sufficient conditions for the Cournot game to be a good approximation to bilateral oligopoly with many buyers and to an ordering of total output when they are not satisfied.     

Balanced‐Budget Rules,Elasticity of Substitution,and Macroeconomic (In)Stability

This paper examines the relation between factor substitution and (local) stability of equilibria in a one‐sector real business cycle model under balanced‐budget rules. We show that under non‐unitary elasticity of factor substitution, the Schmitt‐Grohé‐Uribe indeterminacy result can be altered. Using the two‐step normalization procedure, we highlight two opposing effects of factor substitution, namely, the efficiency effect and the distribution effect, on aggregate stability. With endogenous distortionary taxes and gross substitutability between capital and labor, the existing literature overlooks the distribution effect and finds that balanced‐budget rules are likely to deliver indeterminacy. However, if capital stock is relatively more abundant, a higher elasticity of substitution generates a source of stability due to the distribution effect. Our calibration shows that the distribution effect is always the dominating force.     

A DYNAMIC ENTRY AND PRICE GAME WITH CAPACITY INDIVISIBILITY

Strategic market interaction is here modelled as a two‐stage game in which potential entrants choose capacities and next active firms compete in prices. Due to capital indivisibility, the capacity choice is made from a finite grid and there are economies of scale. In the simplest version of the model with a single production technique, the equilibrium turns out to depend on the ratio between the level of total output at the long‐run competitive equilibrium and the firm's minimum efficient scale: if that ratio is sufficiently large (the market is sufficiently ‘large’), then the competitive price emerges at a subgame‐perfect equilibrium of the capacity and price game; if not, then the firms randomize in prices on the equilibrium path. The role of the market size for the competitive outcome is shown to be even more important if there are several available production techniques.     

劳动力就业、固定资产投入与中国工业增长——基于柯布-道格拉斯生产函数的判断

对经济增长源泉进行判断是经济增长方式转型的前提。利用2009年中国分省区工业经济增长的数据,基于柯布-道格拉斯生产函数对工业增长的动力源进行判断,结果表明,中国经济增长主要依靠固定资本和劳动的投入,二者对经济增长的解释度为98%,说明我国的经济增长方式仍是外延式增长;同时,资本产出和劳动产出弹性之和为1·2,说明中国工业增长具有规模报酬递增的性质。因此,通过规模扩大促进经济增长仍应为当前经济增长方式之一,但更重要的是,在经济增长中要重视劳动的产出弹性增加,即人力资本是经济转型和增长的未来持续动力源。     

Income and wealth distribution in a simple model of growth

Summary. This paper studies a deterministic one-sector growth model with a constant returns to scale production function and endogenous labor supply. It is shown that the distribution of capital among the agents has an effect on the level of per-capita output. There exists a continuum of stationary equilibria with different levels of per-capita output. If the elasticity of intertemporal substitution is large, a higher output level can be achieved when income inequality is great, that is, when the income distribution is strongly dispersed. If the elasticity of intertemporal substitution is low, the reverse relation holds. The paper shows that countries with identical production technologies and identical preferences may have different GDP levels because wealth is distributed differently among their inhabitants. Received: January 29, 1999; revised version: October 4, 1999     

Structural Changes in Australian Manufacturing Industry*

The paper uses a neoclassical production function and historical data to test for structural stability in Australian manufacturing industry. The production function is an extended constant elasticity of substitution form in which factor substitution elasticity, returns to scale and market structure in output, capital and labour are testable hypotheses. Tests for structural changes in homogeneity and factor substitution elasticity relations are based on overall and individual tests of covariance analysis and also on a special version of the Swerling-Kalman filtering systems as proposed by Cooley and Prescott. The empirical findings possess desirable statistical properties and indicate the existence of structural instability in the industry. The evidence also repudiates the assumptions of unitary factor substitution elasticity, constant returns to scale and market competitiveness in output and factors of production.     

What drives the cross‐country growth and inequality correlation?

Abstract.  We present a neo‐classical model that explores the determinants of growth‐inequality correlation and attempts to reconcile the seemingly conflicting evidence on the nature of the growth‐inequality relationship. The initial distribution of human capital determines the long‐run income distribution and the growth rate by influencing the occupational choice of the agents. The steady‐state proportion of adults that innovates and updates human capital is path dependent. The output elasticity of skilled‐labour, barriers to knowledge spillovers, and the degree of redistribution determine the range of steady‐state equilibria. From a calibration experiment we report that a skill‐intensive technology, low barriers to knowledge spillovers, and high degrees of redistribution characterize the industrial countries with a positive growth‐inequality correlation. A negative correlation between growth and inequality arises for the group of non‐industrial countries with the opposite characteristics. JEL classification: E1, O4     

Factor Demand in Pakistan's Manufacturing Sector

This paper estimate factor demand function by choosing appropriate technology. Departing from the conventioanl parting from the conventional practice of using and capital as factor inputs we extend the list of factors of production by including energy. Since we have more than two factor inputs the two-level (nested) CES production function is the natural choice for the appropriate technology. Using this technology we derive the factor demand for functions and estimate these for Pakistan's manufactruing sector covering a period from 1959-60 to 1982-83. The output elasticity of labour, capital and energy are found to be 0.47, 0.66 respectively. These informations, in particular, the employment elasticity are extremely important for manpower planning. These findings confirm the capital intensive structure of Pakistan's manufacturing units. [200]     

New measures of factor productivity in Australia: a Sato approach

This article derives new results of the Elasticity of Substitution (ES) between capital and labour and factor productivity for Australia, an economy which experienced major economic reform that substantially increased the flexibility of its labour, product and capital markets throughout the 1980s and 1990s. It employs a Sato production function specification which has unique properties that enable the estimation of capital–labour substitution elasticity and changing marginal productivities through time. These estimates reveal that the substitution elasticity and labour productivity in Australia rose significantly from the mid-1960s and remained elevated during the economic reform period. A novel contribution of this article is the depiction of Australia's production isoquants to convey how combining labour and capital to produce real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has changed over recent decades.