RISK PERCEPTION AND EQUITY RETURNS: EVIDENCE FROM THE SPX AND VIX

We use the semi‐nonparametric (SNP) model to study the relationship between the innovation of the Volatility Index (VIX) and the expected S&P 500 Index (SPX) returns. We estimate the one‐step‐ahead contemporaneous relation subject to leverage GARCH effect. Results agree with a body of newly established literature arguing non‐linearity, and asymmetries. In addition, the risk‐return behaviour depends on the signs as well as magnitudes of the perceived risk. We conclude that influence of fear or exuberance on the conditional market return is non‐monotonic and hump‐shaped. Very deep fear does not necessarily mean huge losses, instead, the loss may not be as bad as fears of normal levels. Results pass the robustness tests.     

RETURNS TO DEBT AND EQUITY IN FARM PRODUCER ORGANIZATIONS

While the capital structure irrelevance proposition is the point of departure in corporate finance, it is unknown if debt‐or‐equity decisions matter to farm producer organizations. To inform decisions of capital acquisition, a panel study is conducted to estimate the relationships of different types of debt (current, long‐term) and equity (allocated, unallocated) to the financial performance of 707 farm producer organizations in the United States during the 2005–2011 period. Using 3,120 observations, the panel analysis indicates net sales in period t is increased by $1.97, $9.59, and $4.01 with an addition of $1 in current debt, allocated equity, or unallocated equity in period t_‐1. Furthermore, the magnitude of the positive relationship of an additional dollar of allocated (unallocated) equity to net income is estimated at $0.32 ($0.14). We thus reject the notion managers and directors of farm producer organizations should decide to use debt or equity with a coin toss.     

TERRORISM AND THE RETURNS TO OIL

The effect of terrorism on global oil prices has been largely explained through demand-side effects. We estimate an empirical model to re-examine the effect of terrorism on the price of global oil stocks across oil market regimes that reflect different supply constraints. We believe that terrorism will have larger impacts when global capacity is tight (i.e. when global demand is close to global supply). This means that any shock to capacity (say by conflict) should have the largest impact on profits before the first OPEC shock in the early 1970s. Since then, conflict shocks would not allow firms to exploit production in the same way, thus reducing the available profits that could be garnered by such production manipulation. If capacity constraints are binding when a conflict occurs, then we predict that a positive stock price reaction can be expected for oil firms from such a shock. We exploit a new panel dataset to investigate the relationship between oil profitability and conflict, using conflict data from the top 20 oil producing and exporting countries in the world. We show that in the later part of our sample, 1974–2005, as cartel behavior of OPEC member countries has diminished and as conflict has become more regular and thus the information surrounding it noisier, oil stock prices do not increase in response to conflict. However, in earlier capacity constrained eras, we find that oil stocks can in fact increase in response to conflict. In some cases, the impact of conflict may cause the return of oil stocks to increase by as much as 10 percentage points.     

LOWER OIL PRICES AND STATE EMPLOYMENT

Even after two years of adjustment, it was apparent that the sharp drop in oil prices occurring during late 1985 and early 1986 would have a profound effect on the regional distribution of employment in the United States. In this paper, we develop and implement a procedure for quantifying the long-term consequences of lower oil prices on employment in each of the 50 states. We use the estimates developed to determine how much of the variation in state employment growth during 1986 can be attributed to the oil price decline. We also use the estimates to gauge the feasibility of political action, such as an oil import tariff, to reverse the oil price decline.     

能源工业的股权结构多元化与有效竞争的形成

能源工业的股权及投资主体的多元化状况,直接受制于投融资体制,成为能源工业市场化程度衡量标准之一。分析能源工业股权结构及投资主体多元化状况,有利于认清我国能源工业市场化推进程度,从而为进一步改革能源工业体制、提高能源工业效率提供依据。     

THE PERSIAN GULF, GLOBAL OIL RESOURCES, AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

This article analyzes the interaction of politics and military security in global oil markets since the 1980s. The authors outline the historical evolution of the pricing structure that maintained a stable world oil market. They argue that the security framework underlying this pricing structure relied on a trade-off between price stability and military security that has contributed to growing political instability in individual Persian Gulf countries and the rise of Al Qaeda and similar groups. The article concludes with a discussion of the pros and cons of three possible policy approaches to this dilemma—a "hands-off" approach that is similar to the policy that prevailed between 1973 and 1990, a unilateral security system organized and led by the United States, and an international security framework. (JEL D47 , F02 , L11 , Q32 , Q41 , Q43 , Q48 )     

中俄石油现状及合作

石油是国家现代化发展中的最重要战略资源之一.近年来在国内资源禀赋和经济发展的共同作用下,中国石油供应的对外依存度不断提高.作为OPEC之外的最大石油输出国,俄罗斯已经成为中国石油进口的又一个重要来源.鉴于良好的地缘政治基础和明显的资源互补性,中俄两国的石油合作颇具前景.     

近十年全球主要国家房价波动的特征及驱动因素——基于经济学文献的分析

过去十年全球房价的上涨幅度与持续时间都是历史罕见的,各主要国家实际房价周期表现出高度的同步性。虽然本轮房价膨胀与经济周期相背离,但是多数国家房价的上涨仍然处于合理范围内。全球实际利率的持续走低与流动性过剩可能是全球房价膨胀与同向变化的主要因素。     

ASIAN REAL EXCHANGE RATES AND OIL PRICES: A COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS UNDER STRUCTURAL BREAKS

We examine the long‐run relationship between Asian real exchange rates and oil prices in the presence of structural breaks. The relevance of considering breaks is demonstrated by utilizing the Johansen et al. procedure that allows for up to two predetermined breaks. Using conventional tests that do not consider breaks reveals no evidence of cointegration. However, the Johansen et al. procedure clearly demonstrates the importance of considering breaks and provides strong support for a stable long‐run relationship in all but Japan and the Philippines. Moreover, the results suggest evidence of bi‐directional causality in Malaysia and Thailand, uni‐directional causality from exchange rates to oil prices in Korea, the Philippines, and Singapore, uni‐directional causality from oil prices to the exchange rate in Indonesia, and no evidence of causality in Japan.     

PRICES,INEQUALITY, AND POVERTY: METHODOLOGY AND INDIAN EVIDENCE

This paper uses a methodology for evaluating the distributional implications of price movement for inequality and poverty measurement. The methodology is based on a distinction between inequalities in nominal and real expenditure. The conversion of nominal to real expenditure takes into account the varying household preferences. The empirical application to the Indian budget datasets from NSS rounds 50, 55, and 61 shows the usefulness of the proposed procedures. The relative price changes in India have tended to be inequality and poverty reducing as confirmed by formal statistical tests. The result is robust to expenditure dependent equivalence scales. The progressivity of the relative price changes weakened in the second half of our time period as Fuel and Light overtook the composite group called “Miscellaneous” in recording the largest price increase. While the poverty rates registered a decline, which was marginal in the urban areas, there was a sharp increase in inequality.     

全球现代服务业集聚区崛起及中国的对策

近年来全球现代服务业集聚区迅速崛起,发展现代服务业也是我国经济发展的必然选择.在分析现代服务业集聚区源起与特征的基础上,对现代服务业集聚区迅速崛起的动因进行了研究,提出在全球视野下我国构建现代服务业集聚区多样化的对策:从国际和国内两个市场出发,构建以生产性服务业集聚区、服务外包集聚区和总部经济集聚区为代表的现代服务业集聚区.