Measuring and Utilizing Corporate Risk Tolerance to Improve Investment Decision Making

Strategic investment decisions are generally characterized by financial risk as well as an irrevocable commitment of significant amounts of capital. The firm's willingness to undertake financial risks plays an important role in the investment decision making process. A comprehensive economic decision analysis to evaluate strategic investment decisions requires a measure of the firm's tolerance for financial risk. This article describes a decision analysis–based technique for assessing managerial risk tolerance as well as managers' ability to be consistent in terms of their financial risk taking. These assessments are then utilized to assist the firm in establishing a corporate risk policy that can guide strategic decisions under uncertainty. The study firm is a business unit within a U.S.-based major oil company with an annual capital budget of approximately $400 million. Our findings suggest that managers are generally risk averse but struggle in terms of being consistent in their financial risk-taking decisions. This work enabled the firm to implement a financial risk tolerance that could be utilized in the economic decision analysis of investment decisions.     

互补性资产研究综述

本文在归纳不同产业领域中互补性资产的影响和作用基础上,对互补性资产的衡量指标的研究进行了评价分析,认为互补性资产的研究应结合相关领域,研究方法和衡量标准应该符合各产业的实际情况。本文结合建立自主创新型国家、提科研能力的目标,提出从多学科、多角度综合集成的视角探究互补性资产的影响,以及影响的机制和途径。     

Shareholder valuation of foreign investment and expansion

This study analyzes when different foreign investment location choices are value creating for firms at different stages of international expansion. I argue that because direct investment in developing countries is riskier than in advanced countries, shareholders may not value a firm's investment in developing countries until that firm has experience from previous international investments and capabilities to better manage and hedge the higher levels of risk and uncertainty. Using a panel of 191 U.S. manufacturing firms and their foreign investments over a 20‐year period (1981–2000), the empirical results show that firm investments in advanced and developing countries are valued differently by shareholders, depending on the firm's prior international expansion, the firm's capabilities and experiences, and the knowledge intensity of the firm's industry. These results highlight the importance of considering firm location decisions, prior experiences, and resources when analyzing. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

炼油格局继续调整 新兴经济体和产油国炼油业稳步发展——2010年世界炼油工业综述

2010年,全球炼油能力比2009年增加约5030万吨,增速放缓。亚太地区占世界炼油总能力的比例从2009年的27%增至2010年的28.2%,欧美等发达地区炼油业在复苏中继续调整,西欧地区炼油能力继续下降。全球炼厂总数达到662座,炼厂平均规模从2008年的653万吨扩大到2010年的666万吨。随着国际油价逐步回升,2010年对石油下游产业的投资开始复苏,一些受金融危机和经济衰退影响暂时搁置推迟的项目重新启动,新兴经济体和产油国提出了更多的新建炼厂计划,中东依托资源优势积极新建炼厂,非洲寻求外资扩大炼油能力。跨国石油公司继续调整和缩减炼油业务,新兴市场国家石油公司积极拓展海外炼油资产。     

Optimal Capacity,Product Substitution,Linear Demand Models,and Uncertainty

We study the capacity, pricing, and production decisions of a monopolist producing two substitutable products with flexible capacity. Although the capacity decision needs to be made ex ante, under demand uncertainty, pricing and production decisions can be postponed until after uncertainty is resolved. We show how key demand parameters (the nature of uncertainty, market size, and market risk) impact the optimal capacity decision under the linear demand function. In particular, we show that if the demand shock is multiplicative, then in terms of the “invest or not” decision, the firm will be immune to forecast errors in parameters of the underlying demand distribution. Furthermore, incorrectly modeling the demand shock as additive, when, in fact, it is multiplicative, may lead to overinvestment. On the other hand, although the concept of a growth in market size leads to similar conclusions under both additive and multiplicative demand shocks, how market risk affects the optimal capacity decision depends critically on the form of the demand shock as well as its correlation structure. Our analysis provides insights and principles on the optimal capacity investment decision under various demand settings.     

Policy-Induced Technology Adoption: Evidence from the U.S. Lead Phasedown

Theory suggests that economic instruments, such as pollution taxes or tradable permits, can provide more efficient technology adoption incentives than conventional regulatory standards. We explore this issue for an important industry undergoing dramatic decreases in allowed pollution – the U.S. petroleum industry's phasedown of lead in gasoline. Using a duration model applied to a panel of refineries from 1971–1995, we find that the pattern of technology adoption is consistent with an economic response to market incentives, plant characteristics, and alternative policies. Importantly, evidence suggests that the tradable permit system used during the phasedown provided incentives for more efficient technology adoption decisions.     

The Sources and Advantages of Japanese Industrial Organization

Using agency theory, this paper investigates advantages linked to Japanese industrial organization. Three variables theoretically linked to keiretsu organization, ownership structure, inter-firm investment, and financing flexibility were able to correctly classify U.S. and Japanese firms. We detect polarization of U.S. and Japanese firms in terms of performance and strategic decisions.     

The effect of U.K. incentives on R&D activities in U.S.-owned electronics companies in Scotland

The British Government provides numerous financial assistance programmes to assist electronics companies in funding investment projects, R&D activities, and applications of new technology. Interviews were conducted at fifteen U.S. electronics subsidiaries in Scotland to determine the effect of these government incentives in promoting technology and innovation. Results indicate that capital investment grants were widely used, but that financial aid schemes to encourage R&D and the adoption of advanced technology have no bearing on technical characteristics and decisions at the affiliates.     

Investment under economic and implementation uncertainty

Some investment decisions are exposed to uncertainty over their implementation phase apart from the underlying economic uncertainty. We provide a general way of introducing implementation uncertainty, which includes prior research as a special case. The generality of our treatment stems from the fact that implementation uncertainty is allowed to affect both the level and the timing of project profitability. In a case explicitly addressed, implementation uncertainty might even cause earlier investment if the probability of uncertainty resolution exceeds the opportunity cost of delaying investment. Investment will be earlier, the higher the effect of uncertainty resolution on project profitability.     

Uncertain regulatory timing and market dynamics

Using a dynamic model of capacity accumulation, I examine the relationship between uncertainty about the timing of a new Pigouvian tax and oligopolistic competition. I find that for some market structures uncertainty about the timing of the regulatory change leads firms to increase investment. These results stem from the nature of the uncertainty and its interaction with firms' strategic incentive to engage in capacity races. They dramatize the importance of accounting for initial conditions when forecasting firms' reactions to anticipated regulatory changes. In addition, I find that more protracted uncertainty leads to greater welfare costs.     

THE EFFECTS OF CAPACITY ON SALES UNDER ALTERNATIVE VERTICAL CONTRACTS*

Retailer capacity decisions can impact sales for products by affecting, for example, availability and visibility. Using data from the U.S. video rental industry, we report estimates of the effect of capacity on sales under alternative vertical contracts. New monitoring technologies facilitated new supply contracts in this industry, reducing upfront costs of capacity but requiring minimum capacity purchases, strongly impacting stocking decisions. We find that larger capacity (more tapes) for a given title can substantially increase rentals of that title; and that alternative vertical contractual forms for distributing tapes from studios to retailers strongly impacts the relationship between capacity and rentals.     

The impact of industry environment on early market entry decisions by B2B managers in the U.S. and Japan

Managers form simplified mental models to cope with market environment uncertainties and to process information. A critical decision is whether to enter a high-potential market early. Large innovation and development investments involved in this decision increase uncertainty. We examine the importance ascribed by U.S. and Japanese managers to competitive forces when making early market entry decisions. We expect that the competitive forces will have different effects on the likelihood of early market entry in the U.S. versus Japan due to cultural and business environment differences, and we thereby develop several propositions. We develop a decision-making exercise simulating early market entry decisions, and tested our propositions with managers in medium to large business-to-business (B2B) firms from both countries. We assessed impacts of the competitive market forces on entry strategy selection via relative weights, repeated-measures analysis of variance, and frequency analysis. Our findings revealed differences in the mental models of Japanese and U.S. managers. Buyer power had a larger effect on the decision to make an early market entry for Japanese managers, while threat of new firm entry had a larger effect for U.S. managers; these findings were consistent with our propositions. We also found several areas of agreement between U.S. and Japanese managers. We conclude with theoretical implications and recommendations to B2B management.     

Portfolio diversification into the Asia-Pacific capital markets: A currency perspective

This paper examines the potential benefits of international investment in the Asia-Pacific capital markets. Using the viewpoints of U.S., Hong Kong and Japanese investors, the study shows that the returns from international investment within the region are more dependent upon the state of exchange rate changes. For the Hong Kong investors, despite the adopted pegged-rate between the Hong Kong dollar and U.S. dollar, the pattern of exchange returns from investing in the region resembles that of Japan rather than that of the U.S.     

Firm Investment Behavior and Collective Bargaining Strategy

Using survey data on labor union coverage at the firm level, this paper examines union-nonunion differences in investment activity among 706 U.S. companies during the 1970s. Consistent with a model of union rent seeking, firm-level collective bargaining is associated with significantly lower physical capital and R&D investment, even after controlling for firm and industry characteristics. Deleterious union effects on investment are considerable throughout the 1972–80 period, but they vary across industries. Without significant changes in collective bargaining power or strategies, diminished investment activity by unionized companies is likely to exacerbate the already considerable decline in U.S. union coverage     

Contingent Product Design and Marketing Strategies Influencing New Product Success and Failure in U.S. and Japanese Electronics Firms

The commercial success or failure of a product doesn't rest solely on the whims of the marketplace. The myriad, often interdependent, strategic trade-offs made throughout the product development process go a long way toward determining whether a product succeeds or fails. The key to success often rests in finding the right combination of product design and market choice decisions. Toward that end, William E. Souder and X. Michael Song examine the relationship between product success and several product design and market choice strategies. In particular, they explore the possibility that the correct strategy combination differs depending on a firm's perception of market uncertainty, which they measure in terms of the respondents' perceived familiarity with the market for a product, perceived understanding of customer needs, and perceived capability to translate those needs into product performance specifications. Recognizing that the correct combination of strategic choices may also depend on firm size, industry, and culture, the study focuses on small U.S. suppliers of electronics components. Fortune 500 producers of electronics final products, and Japanese producers of electronics final products. For the small U.S. firms in the study, an emphasis on performance superiority, technical superiority, or radically new products provides a recipe for failure under low market uncertainty. Even under high market uncertainty, these characteristics do not equate to success for the small U.S. firms in this study. The findings suggest that these firms should focus on design compatibility with a purchaser's installed base. The responses from Fortune 500 firms and Japanese companies indicate that under low market uncertainty these larger organizations should consider emphasizing compatibility and avoiding radical designs. For markets that the larger firms perceive to be highly uncertain, the results suggest that these companies should emphasize performance superiority, technical superiority, and radical designs. The findings related to market choice strategies also support the notion that the correct combination of strategic decisions depends on firm size, culture, and the perceived level of market uncertainty. However, the guidelines presented in this study should not be construed as hard-and-fast rules for formulating product strategy. Instead, the results presented here will be helpful for challenging assumptions and guiding actions, as one element in the effort to shape an effective product strategy.     

Alternatives to the U.S. Antitrust Agency approach to market definition

Shortcomings of the U.S. Antitrust Agency Guidelines method of market definition include failure to focus on competition, the need for cost data, and discontinuities. Two alternative approaches are presented which avoid these problems and the Guidelines' inclusion of substitutes on an all-or-nothing basis. One alternative focuses on the size of a change in capacity of a substitute that would be needed to have the same effects as a unit change in capacity of an initial item. The second proposed alternative offers a simple operational method of giving practical content to the “reasonable interchangeability” concept which is a prominent feature of U.S. Supreme Court decisions. The alternative approaches are evaluated in comparison to that of the Guidelines and some modified versions of the latter.     

Pioneering Advantages and Entrepreneurs' First‐mover Decisions: An Empirical Investigation for the United States and China

New ventures are often launched for the purpose of pioneering an innovative new product or service in the marketplace. Entrepreneurs or founders of new ventures thus often have to make the decision whether to be the market pioneer or the first mover. While being a first mover potentially is advantageous, it also involves taking risks and facing uncertainties. Entrepreneurs must assess the benefits and risks of pioneering in the first‐mover decision‐making process to realize the potential competitive advantages associated with being a pioneer. Previous research has shown how entrepreneurs perceive potential gains and losses associated with exploring opportunities as the key defining element of entrepreneurial decision‐making. Past studies have also indicated that cultural and business environmental factors affect both perceptions and decision‐making. However, studies to date have insufficiently addressed the relationship between entrepreneurs' perceived pioneering advantages/disadvantages and their first‐mover decisions, with little attention to cross‐national differences. This study includes hypotheses postulating how entrepreneurs' perceived advantages and disadvantages of pioneering affect the number of first‐mover decisions made by entrepreneurs in two different cultural contexts, the United States and China. We collect data from 152 U.S. entrepreneurs and 140 Chinese entrepreneurs over a four‐year period and carry out empirical tests on the hypotheses using Poisson regression models. Our results provide insight on how culture affects perceptions of advantages and disadvantages of pioneering, and how these perceptions impact the likelihood of making a first‐mover decision. We find that a higher level of perceived advantages will drive first‐mover decisions, whereas perceived disadvantages will deter first‐mover decisions. The negative effect of perceived erosion disadvantages on the number of first‐mover decisions was higher for Chinese entrepreneurs, consistent with the high risk‐aversion culture in China. However, this effect was not found for perceived uncertainty disadvantages, suggesting that the risk‐averse characteristics of Chinese entrepreneurs is an oversimplification, and that the Chinese cultural, business, and legal environment helps offset uncertainty disadvantages. We also find an interesting positive moderating effect of perceived advantage on the relationship between perceived disadvantages and the number of first‐mover decisions in China only. That is, if perceived advantages are low, Chinese entrepreneurs are more risk averse than U.S. entrepreneurs; but if perceived advantages are high, Chinese entrepreneurs are more risk‐seeking than U.S. entrepreneurs. This finding again challenges the risk aversion conclusion found by previous studies of Chinese managers.     

Uncertainty premia in REIT returns

We provide a systematic study of how financial and real estate uncertainty affect the aggregate return performance of the U.S. REIT market from 1994 to 2017. A temporal causality analysis reveals a negative uncertainty impact on REIT returns. The asset pricing analysis confirms the predictive relation and suggests that REITs are statistically significantly exposed to changes in market-wide uncertainty, for which investors require a return compensation. We also identify economic state variables to explain time-varying uncertainty exposures as well as periodic hedging characteristics of REITs. Finally, we find evidence that the source of uncertainty matters for compensating expected REIT returns.     

Economies of scale in petroleum refining, 1947–1984: A survivor principle - time series analysis

The survivor test to determine scale economies in an industry is applied to the U.S. petroleum refining industry. A time series covering every refinery for the period 1947–1984 is used. The results support Stigler's original conclusion of a saucer-shaped long-run average cost curve when his technique is duplicated on the full time series. However, we argue that the technique is misleading and try an alternative method which concludes that costs are decreasing for large scale refineries.     

Timing the Start of Material Substitution Projects: Creating Switching Options under Volatile Material Prices

Firms developing new products often face the challenge of making investment decisions under uncertain input–cost conditions due to the price volatilities of the materials they use. These decisions need to be made long before the final products are launched on the market. Therefore, firms that invest in the opportunity to switch materials in a timely manner will have the flexibility to react to material price changes and realize competitive advantages. However, volatile material prices may also cause a firm to delay investment. Using real‐options reasoning, this paper studies the influence of input‐cost fluctuations on the timing decision to start new product development (NPD) and thus create the follow‐on opportunity to later replace an existing product. A model that combines waiting and switching options to derive influencing factors of the flexibility value that triggers the investment is developed and tested on a sample of material substitution projects from manufacturing firms. The results show how price uncertainty of the new and the old material, their joint price development, the expected project duration, and competitive preemption are related to the propensity to delay the start of NPD. The findings provide new insights on how timing in adopting materials can be used to hedge exposure to volatile material prices. The insights are relevant for adopters and producers of new materials, as well as for policy makers who strive for supporting the diffusion of new materials.