Education,Innovation and Long‐Run Growth

We extend a second‐generation Schumpeterian growth model to incorporate human capital accumulation to clarify the general equilibrium effects of subsidy policies on human capital accumulation and R&D activities in a unified framework. Despite the conventional argument that subsidies always stimulate these growth‐promoting activities, we find that subsidies asymmetrically affect human capital accumulation and R&D activities. Our theoretical results suggest that research using standard models of human capital might find false negative relationships between education subsidies and economic growth.     

Optimal Reserves and Short‐Term Interest Rates in a Model of Bank Runs

A global game framework of bank runs is used to analyse a bank's choice of its reserve level and short‐term interest rate. Higher level of reserves and a lower short‐term interest rate would decrease the probability of bank runs. When the bank's reserve policy is transparent, it will hold excess reserves to discourage withdrawals by patient depositors. This inefficiency of excess reserves increases with the proportion of impatient depositors. When the bank has private information about its reserve level, it will follow a more risky strategy of choosing lower reserves and higher early return than what maximizes depositor welfare and increases the probability of bank runs.     

The Impact of Labour Market Reforms and Economic Performance on the Matching of the Short‐term and the Long‐term Unemployed

As a reaction to high and persistent unemployment in Germany, the largest labour market reforms in post‐war history were implemented between 2003 and 2005. We analyse the impact of the reforms and its coincidence with an economic expansion on the efficiency of matching out of unemployment. Especially focussing on searcher heterogeneity, we estimate a system of stock‐flow matching functions for short‐term and long‐term unemployment (three‐stage least squares) on the basis of administrative data. In sum, the reforms increased matching efficiency for both groups, but the effect was larger for the long‐term unemployed. The interaction of reforms and economic expansion, however, was not influential.     

Improving the Performance of a Long‐Run Variance Ratio Test for a Unit Root

Cai and Shintani (2006, Econometric Theory, 22, 347–372) considered the impact of introducing an inconsistent long‐run variance estimator when constructing a class of kernel‐based ratio tests for testing non‐stationarity in the series. They found that the quotient of two estimators with different rates of convergence under the null and the alternative hypotheses may lead to a test having an interesting size and power trade‐off. This paper develops modified versions of this test, presents new asymptotic results and tabulates critical values. The finite sample performance is explored through Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that the modifications proposed lead to more powerful unit root tests.     

Long‐Term Contracts,Irreversibility, and Uncertainty

Long‐term contracting implies contracting based on expected future demand. In this paper, I develop a multiperiod procurement model where, once the actual level of demand is realized, the irreversible initial provision level may be supplemented by additional provisions. This paper shows that, with the possibility of additional upward adjustments, the first‐period provision level will be lower than when no additional adjustments are possible. This reduction in first‐period provision level is higher under complete contracting than under incomplete contracting, and because of the reduction in information rents it yields a higher expected utility to the principal but lower total welfare.     

Macroeconomic Control in the Transforming Chinese Economy: An Analysis of the Long‐Run Effect

This paper analyzes the issue of macroeconomic control in the Chinese economy where there is a dual structure (consisting of a state sector and a non‐state sector) and the financial sector is still under tight control by the government. Given the dual structure and financial repression, when inflation is a severe problem, the authors investigate whether it is possible for the government to bring inflation under control without hampering long‐term economic growth performance. The investigation is conducted within the context of an endogenous growth model that incorporates the two major institutional features of the transforming Chinese economy. The paper evaluates the long‐run effects of changes in government monetary and fiscal policies on the major macroeconomic aggregates. The analysis suggests that increasing in the interest rate on government bonds will reduce inflation without affecting the growth rate of output; while increasing the nominal interest rate on bank deposits will exert a stagflationary effect on the economy: raising the inflation rate but reducing the growth rate of output.     

银行非自愿超额准备金与宏观经济波动:来自中国的经验证据

基于将银行超额准备金分解为预防性超额准备金和非自愿超额准备金,以及将非自愿超额准备金作为银行体系流动性衡量指标,并对非自愿超额准备金的波动机制及其对宏观经济波动影响机制进行考察,发现1998-2010年期间,在外汇占款和银行贷款的综合作用下,非自愿超额准备金率经历了先降后升,然后再次下降的走势。而且从短期看,非自愿超额准备金的累积会对产出、价格和银行贷款产生负向效应,但从长期看,则又体现为正向效应,从而放大和加剧了宏观经济波动。在此情况下,货币当局在流动性管理过程中,应审慎针对非自愿超额准备金展开微调性操作,从而实现宏观经济的平稳运行。     

Banking in Croatia; Macroeconomic Conditions and the Banking Reform in Croatia

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Bank Lending: Evidence for Germany and the Euro Area

Abstract. This paper analyzes the dynamic response of loans to the private sector and of economic activity to aggregate supply, demand and monetary policy shocks in Germany and the euro area based on a standard macroeconomic VAR using sign restrictions to identify the structural shocks. The main results of this analysis are that (i) with the exception of the response to the supply shock in Germany, the response of loans to the three macroeconomic shocks is rather weak and in most cases insignificant; (ii) the 2000–05 credit slowdown and weak economic performance in Germany were primarily driven by adverse supply shocks; and (iii) the marked slowdown in credit creation in Germany over this period actually represents a realignment of the outstanding stock of loans with its deterministic level. In order to assess the role of bank lending in the transmission of macroeconomic shocks, we further perform counterfactual simulations and analyze the dynamic responses of German loan subaggregates in order to test the distributional implications of potential credit market frictions. These exercises do not indicate that credit market frictions play an amplifying role in the transmission of macroeconomic fluctuations.     

Long‐Term Unemployment and the Great Recession: Evidence from UK Stocks and Flows

Long‐term unemployment more than doubled during the United Kingdom's Great Recession. Only a small fraction of this persistent increase can be accounted for by the changing composition of unemployment across personal and work history characteristics. Through extending a well‐known stocks‐flows decomposition of labour market fluctuations, the cyclical behaviour of participation flows can account for over two‐thirds of the high level of long‐term unemployment following the financial crisis, especially the procyclical flow from unemployment to inactivity. The pattern of these flows and their changing composition suggest a general shift in the labour force attachment of the unemployed during the downturn.     

Optimal Monetary Policy in OLG Models with Long‐Lived Agents: A Note

This note reexamines Crettez, Michel, and Wigniolle ( 2002 ), who studied a two‐period overlapping generations model with cash‐in‐advance constraints and showed that a combination of saving tax and monetary policy involving positive nominal interest rates could achieve the first‐best allocation. The note shows that their result does not hold if agents live for three periods. The implementation of the first best requires the Friedman rule. If agents are long‐lived, saving tax cannot offset a distortion caused by the positive nominal interest rate.     

金融危机、政府担保与储户挤兑——来自中国“白银风潮”的历史证据

政府担保在金融危机期间如何影响储户的挤兑行为,对该问题的回答有助于我们从储户行为的视角认识政府担保在维护金融稳定中的作用.1935年的“白银风潮”作为中国近代史上的一次金融危机,为研究上述问题提供了绝佳的自然实验.文章利用总行设在上海的银行1932-1935年的资产负债表数据,实证检验了“白银风潮”期间政府担保对储户行为的影响.结果表明:政府担保显著降低了银行遭遇储户挤兑的概率,并且促使银行吸引更多存款流入;储户从不受政府担保的银行提取存款转而存入受到政府担保的银行,由此引起的存款再分配效应避免了整个银行体系的崩溃.文章还发现,具有政府担保的银行在危机期间投放了更多信贷,这对经济的复苏起到了推动作用.文章对于我国的金融安全网从隐性政府担保向显性存款保险制度的转型具有启示.     

The Effects of Macroeconomic Policy with a Disparity in Price Elasticity Between Private‐ and Public‐ Sector Demands

We introduce a disparity in price elasticity between government demand and consumption demand into a simple money‐in‐the‐utility‐function model. This extension demonstrates that the effect of fiscal policies on production may be positive, negative, or neutral depending on the disparity in price elasticity between sectors. Because the effect of an increase in nominal money supply with constant nominal government expenditure is the opposite to that of a fiscal policy, a fiscal policy financed by seigniorage can have positive, negative, or no effects depending on parameter values. Moreover, the effect of simultaneous implementation of expansionary–contractionary policies depends on how they are combined.     

Determinants of the Timing of Downsizing Among Large Japanese Firms: Long‐Term Employment Practices and Corporate Governance

This paper analyses the relation between corporate governance and employment adjustment behaviour among Japanese firms. The results are summarized in the following two points. First, in the period before 1997, although main banks were likely to allow firms' employment maintenance until they experienced 2 consecutive years of losses, they tended to press firms to downsize once firms faced financial distress. Second, the reduced function of main banks and the increased influence of foreign owners have changed the timing of downsizing since 1997. Changes in corporate governance have brought about slight but non‐negligible changes in Japanese employment practices.     

2010年下半年中国宏观经济形势预判——基于央行近期发布的政策报告的解读

2010年下半年以来,中国宏观经济增速减缓已经是不争的事实。央行作为宏观调控部门,针对目前国内的宏观形势,频繁地公开发表了多项政策调研报告。本文结合目前的宏观形势及央行的政策报告,从多个角度分析了宏观形势,探讨了中国宏观经济下滑的内外部决定因素,对下半年是否会探底进行初判,并提出相应的政策建议。     

The Earnings of Immigrant Men in Australia: Assimilation, Cohort Effects, and Macroeconomic Conditions

This paper analyzes the earnings of immigrant men in Australia using data from Income Distribution Surveys for 1982, 1986 and 1990. The paper expands on the standard approach used in the literature to evaluate immigrant earnings adjustment by considering the impact of current labour market conditions and conditions at labour market entry on current earnings. Immigrants from non-English speaking backgrounds have significantly lower earnings on arrival in Australia compared with native-born males, and this gap is not narrowed as years in Australia increase. However, poorer macroeconomic conditions at entry are found to have a significantly smaller negative effect on the earnings of immigrants from non-English speaking backgrounds than native-born males.     

Tax Principles and Tariff‐Tax Reforms under International Oligopoly

In a two‐country duopoly model, this paper compares destination‐ and origin‐based commodity taxes adjusted to tariff reductions so that the world price and foreign welfare remain unaltered. We first find that this tariff‐tax reform reduces domestic welfare under the destination principle while the opposite holds under the origin principle. Then, it is shown that this ranking is reversed if exports are taxed. In short, which is preferable between destination and origin taxes depends on the tax principle and which between imports and exports are taxed.     

国际资本流动和国际贸易对国内物价的冲击效应——基于不同汇率机制和宏观经济环境的研究

在开放经济条件下,国际资本流动和国际贸易与国内物价的联系越来越密切。文章根据不同的汇率机制和宏观经济环境,分四个阶段研究了1994—2011年国际资本流动和国际贸易对国内物价的冲击效应。研究发现,在不同的汇率机制和宏观经济环境下,国际资本流动和国际贸易对国内物价的冲击程度不同。整体上,国际资本流动对物价的冲击相对于国际贸易呈现增大的趋势。因此,在制定宏观经济政策时,除了要考虑国际资本流动和国际贸易对物价的影响外,还要考虑当时的汇率机制和宏观经济环境。