THE IMPACT OF TRADE AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT POLICIES ON TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION AND SOURCING OF CHINESE FIRMS

How do trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) policies impact the decisions of firms in technology adoption (process vs. product innovations) and sourcing (internal vs. external and foreign vs. domestic)? We use a sample of Chinese firms to address this question. China's trade and FDI policies lead to different forms of internationalization: ordinary exports, processing exports, majority FDI, and minority FDI. We find that both exporting and FDI stimulate process innovation; ordinary exports, processing exports, and FDI have strong, weak, and no effects on stimulating product innovation, respectively. Exporting firms source technologies both internally through R&D and externally from foreign and domestic sources. FDI firms have a lower tendency of internal technology development and domestic technology sourcing, but a much higher tendency of foreign technology sourcing than exporting firms. (JEL F13, F23, O32)     

西北地区贸易联系与空间流向分析

西部大开发以来,西北各省区对外贸易和省(区)际贸易的绝对量逐步增大,对内和对外开放程度均有所提高。空间上呈现两大特征:一是地区内省(区)际贸易联系较强;二是地区外贸易具有明显的东部沿海指向。对外贸易特别是边境贸易的繁荣是西北各省区国内贸易增长和空间格局变动的重要原因。继续推进西北地区在东、西两个方向上的流通通道建设,同时加强地区内各省区之间的产业关联建设,是促进对外贸易和省(区)际贸易同步发展的关键。     

基础设施投资对社会其他部门投资影响效应

基础设施投资在经济发展中起着十分重要的作用,直接影响着经济发展的速度和质量。文章通过建立计量模型,运用1993—2003我国30个省市(自治区)的面板数据,研究了我国基础设施投资对社会其他部门投资的影响。结果发现基础设施投资对社会其他部门投资具有明显的挤入效应,其中西部地区最大,中部地区次之,东部地区最小。最后提出政策建议:提高财政支出效率,加快基础设施领域改革,加快西部地区基础设施建设。     

REFORM CREATING REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT: APPLICATIONS FOR EAST ASIA

Abstract. We estimate the investment creation and diversion effects of RTAs by using an extended gravity equation focusing on domestic reform as a commitment device for RTA membership. As a case study, we estimate the impact of proposed East Asian RTAs on inward FDI. We find that: (i) reform creating RTA membership, larger market size, better skilled labour and lower trade costs all contribute positively and significantly to inward FDI; and (ii) most of the proposed East Asian RTAs promote intra‐bloc FDI. In particular, both South–North and North–North RTAs prove to be more preferable membership combinations to South–South RTAs in East Asia.     

ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CHINA'S WTO ACCESSION ON INVESTMENT

Abstract.  After a boom in foreign direct investment (FDI) in China in the early 1990s, FDI slowed in the late 1990s. More recently, with China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) a reality, FDI has once again picked up. This paper explores the linkage between WTO accession and investment in China. We find that investment and capital stocks increase substantially. Moreover, foreign ownership of Chinese assets doubles by 2020. Central to this increase is the expected catch-up in the productivity of the services sectors driven by reforms. These estimates are far larger than those predicted by earlier studies, which ignored the reforms affecting Chinese services sectors, and abstracted from international capital mobility.     

THE IMPACT OF TAX REGIMES ON INTERNATIONAL TRADE PATTERNS

This paper discusses the trade implications of value‐added taxes (VATs) that refund domestic taxes paid by exporters of domestic production while imposing taxes on imports of foreign production. VATs are used by over 140 countries of the world, including every member of the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development except the United States. An investigation of the implications of border‐adjustable taxes on the U.S. trade balance suggests that VATs positively affect trade competitiveness but with differing impacts by sector. These results do not necessarily extend to the conclusion that a U.S. VAT would increase U.S. exports; such a prediction requires economic forecasting and appropriate simulations. The present results do imply that the adoption of VATs by other countries appears to have benefited U.S. trade. Panel data over 20 years, 29 industries, and 145 countries is used to conduct the analysis. (JEL F10, H20, K34)     

IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE UNCERTAINTY ON COMMODITY TRADE BETWEEN THE US AND AUSTRALIA*

Exchange rate volatility is said to have negative or positive effect on trade flows. Previous studies that considered the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on the trade flows of Australia employed trade data either between Australia and rest of the world or between Australia and her few major trading partners. They were unable to discover any significant impact. In this paper when we disaggregate trade data by commodity between Australia and one of her major trading partners, the US, we find exchange rate volatility to have short‐run effects on trade flows of most industries. However, the short‐run effects last into long run, only in limited cases, though more in export commodities than import ones.     

中国的贸易扩张及其对亚太地区贸易增长的贡献

本文以1990—2003年为考察时段,从总体和产业两个层面,对中国在亚太地区主要经济体出口增长中的贡献度进行实证评估。通过对各经济体出口增长来源的分解,我们发现亚太地区的贸易扩张越来越依赖于需求拉动的作用,而从需求方面看,中国对亚太地区贸易增长的贡献越来越大,对本地区经济的影响力已替代了日本。东盟对中国的依赖程度越来越高。一个以中国为中心的更加紧密的东亚地区贸易关系正在形成,这为今后该地区区域经济一体化的发展创造了一个良好的合作基础和利益来源。     

PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENTS AND MULTILATERAL TARIFF COOPERATION*

Are preferential trade agreements (PTAs) building or stumbling blocks for multilateral trade liberalization? I address this question in an infinitely repeated tariff game between three countries engaged in intraindustry trade under oligopoly. The central result is that when countries are symmetric, a free trade agreement (FTA) undermines multilateral tariff cooperation by adversely affecting the cooperation incentive of the nonmember whereas a customs union (CU) does so via its effect on the cooperation incentives of members. However, when countries are asymmetric with respect to either market size or cost, there exist circumstances where PTAs facilitate multilateral tariff cooperation.     

CURRENCY UNIONS, TRADE FLOWS AND CAPITAL FLOWS

Abstract.  Trade within currency unions is much larger than outside of currency unions, even after factoring in many relevant variables. The existing empirical evidence is based on reduced form models of trade, and therefore indicates correlation between but neither causality nor mechanism. This paper argues that the causal relationship runs from currency unions to trade, and then considers two possible mechanisms behind this: currency union membership: reduces trade resistance or reduces investment resistance. We argue that both mechanisms are required to explain the observed economic impact of currency union membership.     

20年来大陆—香港关系及重大事件对两岸旅游互动的影响分析

1997年香港回归中国是其政体隶属关系的重大转变。依据1990—2007年的有关统计资料,选取入境客流量、环比增长率、占出境游客比率和占入境旅游比率4个指标,定量分析了回归前后7次重大事件及政策变化对旅游双向互动的影响。结果显示:1997年回归之前,香港隶属英国租界,经济发达出游率高,在旅游流互动中处于强势地位;1997年香港回归之后,随着大陆经济实力的不断增强,大陆入境香港旅游则成为旅游互动的核心,庞大的客流量和旅游购买力成为拉动香港经济发展的重要因素。1990—2007年,香港赴大陆旅游客流量由1 653.3万人次增加到7 794.9万人次,占大陆入境旅游比由60.2%下降至59.1%,比例变化不大;而大陆入境香港客流量由75.4万人次增加至1 548.7万人次,占香港入境旅游比由11%增长到55%,依赖性不断增强。     

THE IMPACT OF GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT ORGANIZATIONS IN MALAYSIA ON THE PERFORMANCE OF THEIR PORTFOLIO COMPANIES

Research into the impact of government ownership on the financial performance of listed companies typically assumes the government to be a monolithic entity and fails to consider that government ownership rights are administered by different types of government organizations. Exploring the financial performance of government controlled listed companies we find that in Malaysia the impact of government ownership varies depending on the type of organization which manages the government's ownership stakes. Taking into account golden Share provisions as well as the presence of senior civil servants and of politicians on boards of Directors, we find that firms controlled by investment organizations under federal government control tend to outperform firms controlled by regional governments’ investment organizations.     

THE IMPACT OF EXPORTING AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT ON PRODUCT INNOVATION: EVIDENCE FROM CHINESE MANUFACTURERS

To understand the drivers of product innovation at the firm level, I compare the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) and exporting on product innovation using a rich firm‐level database of manufacturing and industrial enterprises. The article focuses on product innovation, as it is vital to economic development. Estimates from linear regressions and propensity score matching tests show that learning‐by‐exporting is a stronger predictor of product innovation. Firms that receive foreign investment also tend to engage in more product innovation, but not at the same level as the firms that export. Additional tests confirm that as they start and stop exporting, firms change their patterns of investment in the drivers of product innovation—fixed capital and research. (JEL D22, F14, F23, L25, O31)     

FDI外溢效应对我国工业行业技术进步的影响

我国工业行业存在明显的FDI外溢效应的人力资本"门槛效应",要想充分利用FDI的外溢效应,必须跨越人力资本门槛,提高人力资本水平、技术装备水平、研究开发能力和消化吸收能力。     

中国对外贸易和FDI相互关系的研究

本文基于1980—2001全国的时间序列数据,对中国对外贸易与FDI 之间的关系进行了格兰杰因果关系检验,并以各省及东中西部三大区域数据作统计描述辅证之。文章得到以下结果:中国对外贸易与 FDI 之间的互补作用远大于替代作用,各省市 FDI 与贸易之间的关系存在着惊人的一致性;FDI与制成品的出口具有双向的因果关系;虽然长期中 FDI 对制成品的进口具有促进作用,但短期中 FDI 对制成品的进口具有替代效应;FDI 对贸易的短期影响具有滞后性,滞后三期的效果最为显著。     

制造业FDI行业内和行业间溢出对全要素生产率变动的影响*

在中国制造2025的大背景下,如何利用FDI来促进制造业全要素生产率、技术效率与技术水平的提升具有重要意义。采用2005—2014年中国制造业的26个行业的面板数据实证分析FDI行业间和行业内的技术溢出对全要素生产率变动的影响,结果发现行业内直接溢出能有效促进内资制造业全要素生产率和技术效率的提高;行业内间接溢出则会挤占内资企业的生存空间阻碍全要素生产率、技术效率和技术水平的增长;行业间后向关联程度能显著且明显地促进内资制造业全要素生产率和技术效率的提升;行业间前向关联程度能显著但微弱地抑制内资制造业全要素生产率和技术效率的提升。     

中国资本账户开放进程中跨境证券投资对国内金融市场的影响*

随着中国资本项目开放进程的推进,跨境证券投资对国内金融市场的冲击日益增强。在此背景下,本文首先通过构建考虑了资本市场收益率以及有管理浮动汇率制度的IS LM BP模型对跨境证券投资与中国国内金融市场的相互影响机理进行了理论探究,并基于中国2005年7月—2016年8月的月度数据,运用马尔科夫区制转移向量自回归模型对中国资本账户开放进程中跨境证券投资与人民币汇率、股票市场收益率、短期利率的联动关系进行了实证分析。研究结果表明：第一,四者的关联性存在明显的区制特征,区制1主要包括次贷危机时期（2007—2008年）、欧债危机时期（2010—2012年）以及后金融危机时期（2015—2016年）,经济呈现“股票市场收益率较低、跨境证券投资较少、短期利率较高、金融市场波动性大”的状态;区制2主要包括次贷危机前夕（2005—2006年）、次贷危机后的量化宽松时期（2009—2010年）以及欧债危机后的调整期（2013—2014年）,经济呈现“股票市场收益率较高、跨境证券投资较多、短期利率较低、金融市场波动性小”的状态。第二,当处于资本市场化进程较快、金融市场波动性较大的区制阶段（区制1）时,跨境证券投资与国内金融市场的联动关系更加明显。本文研究结论对于我国进一步开放资本市场具有借鉴价值和政策启示。     

城投债对地区产能过剩的影响：促进还是抑制*

在构建城投债影响产能过剩的理论基础上,以我国2004-2016年地级市面板数据为样本,本文检验了城投债影响产能过剩的具体效应和相关机制。研究发现：城投债与地区产能过剩之间呈现U型关系;其中城投债对产能过剩的影响在中西部地区、南方地区、大城市和金融危机爆发后更为显著;机制检验表明,地方政府借助城投债压低工业用地价格和投资交通基础设施会加剧产能过剩,且压低工业用地价格带来的效应更为严重。因此,本文从适度控制债务规模、改善体制激励措施和完善要素定价机制等方面提出相应建议。