The regional effects of Indonesia's oil and gas policy: options for reform

This paper analyses the effects on the regions of Indonesia's fuel policy. It discusses how the sharing of oil and gas revenue and taxes between the centre and the regions affects the sub-national fiscal position, and examines the distribution of fuel subsidies across regions. The paper also examines the recent proposals to discontinue subsidising gasoline for private vehicles or to eliminate fuel subsidies altogether, and shows how the regions would be affected if these suggestions were adopted. We argue that the proposals would increase efficiency and equity and should therefore be implemented.     

Biofuels and the policy implications for China

The paper explores China's biofuel policy and compares biofuel development in China and the rest of the world. It is argued that biofuel development depends on financial support, price intervention, and trade barriers, which all call for government support. China's biofuel industry is developing fast but under strict control. China should refer to other countries' experiences and make policy decisions according to national strategies and local conditions.     

Innovation centres: The policy options for local authorities

Over the last few years a growing number of local authorities have set up Innovation Centres (ICs) as part of their repertoire of initiatives aimed at local economic regeneration. According to the recently formed Association of Innovation Centre Executives, ICs exist to provide assistance to both individuals and small firms with the creation and development of new and improved products and processes which can demonstrate market potential. Yet a review of the experience of ICs to date reveals that there is no standard model of an IC that can be taken off the shelf. Roger Leigh and David North seek to clarify the various options and choices that are available to a local authority contemplating setting up an IC, using information and insights gained from a series of interviews with IC managers carried out in 1985.     

Agricultural trade policy reform in South Asia: the role of the Uruguay round and policy options for the future WTO agenda

This paper examines the role of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA) in agricultural trade policy reform in South Asia and policy options for the future reform agenda of the World Trade Organization (WTO). A key policy inference is that, to be effective, planning for freeing agriculture should involve simultaneous reforms of import and export regimes, and domestic production support mechanisms. Policy related lending, in particular provision of financial support for social safety programs, can play an important role in making such comprehensive reforms politically palatable and feasible. While overloading the WTO with matters that fall beyond its purview may be counterproductive, there is certainly a case for a coordinated effort involving the WTO and international development finance institutions.     

Water management options for food security in South Africa: scenarios,simulations and policy implications

Recent research activities of the International Water Management Institute on water and food security have led to the development of a user‐friendly simulation model, Podium, to test national policy options on water allocation to different uses. This article presents an application of the model to South Africa, where water resources development and management constitute a high national priority. Data on demography, nutritional requirements, food imports and exports, climate and hydrology are used to create scenarios about meeting future water requirements for food production while simultaneously satisfying the water requirements of other sectors. The simulation results highlight the need to improve productivity in irrigation and also intensify rainfed agriculture to avoid future food insecurity, especially under high population projections. Merely expanding irrigated areas will not make significant impacts on national‐level food security. There also appears to be scope for increasing domestic per capita water consumption without altering current diversions for agriculture and other requirements.     

The ETS in China and Europe: dynamics,policy options and global sustainability perspectives

The Emission Trading Schemes of China and Europe show that China’s envisaged national ETS could bring a major contribution in the international approach against global warming; new perspectives on the use of composite sustainability indicators are also highlighted. China’s regional pilot schemes will converge to a (more) uniform price of emission allowances. As China is a major economic and political actor in the world economy, China’s progress with ETS is important. At the same time, China’s progress in the field of green international competitiveness – standing for a positive revealed comparative advantage in environmentally friendly goods – in the period 2000–2015 is considerable and the improved positioning of China in the EIIW-vita sustainability indicator shows considerable technological dynamics in Asia. The European ETS is working, but it suffers from the rather low price of emission allowances. The long-term time horizon of 2050 in the EU climate policy is rather ambitious and it is unclear whether or not a consistent G20 approach can be achieved – with the EU, China, Japan and the US cooperating amongst each other. There is a lack of a specialized climate stabilization institution in the world economy, the traditional anchoring of climate policy in the UN weakens the practical pressure for efficient cooperation since the UN is very heterogeneous in terms of per capita income and GHG emissions per unit of GDP; G20 might be an institution that is suitable for effective policy cooperation. More initiatives in the field of recycling could be useful.     

对我国当前土地改革政策的思考

在中国13亿人口中,农民占了2/3以上,因而我们可以说中国问题就是农民问题。"土地流转问题"是十七届三中全会的一大亮点,新的土地改革政策必将成为解决我国"三农问题"的重大突破口。     

The pricing of China stock index options based on monetary policy uncertainty

In the field of option pricing, scholars have been exploring the constant settings of volatility and interest rate ever since the Black-Scholes model was put forward. This research introduces a floating interest rate into the local volatility model, analyzes the model’s pricing effects, and compares them from the aspects of an in-sample pricing error and out-of-sample pricing error respectively using data of CSI (China Securities Index) SH-SZ (Shanghai-Shenzhen) 300 stock index options. The empirical results show that the Surface Stochastic Volatility Inspire model is better than the Stochastic Volatility Inspire model.     

Monetary policy and the behaviour of inflation in India: Is there a need for institutional reform?

Inflation rates in a number of developed countries follow a common trend over the past five decades: inflation starts out low in the 1950s, rises for a time before peaking in the 1970s, and then falls back to initial levels. Interestingly the behaviour of trend inflation in India broadly exhibits such a pattern. This similarity in the behaviour suggests that any explanation of inflation ought to apply across countries. To this end we construct a reduced-form inflation model for India that encompasses various well-known policy mistake theories as special cases. The restriction imposed by each of these theories on the behaviour of inflation is tested empirically. Reduced-form estimates lend support to all these theories. Although the reason for the inflation bias differs from one theory to the other, the mechanism at the heart of these theories are in fact quite similar. They all lay responsibility for inflation with the nature of monetary institutions. We use these results to interpret India's inflation experience over the past five decades and discuss the implications for institutional reform.     

我国出口退税政策改革探析

我国自1985年实施出口退税政策以来,对促进我国外贸进出口的发展做出了重要贡献,但是在运行过程中出现了出口骗税、中央财政退税压力过大、不适应产业结构调整优化的要求等问题。出口退税制度的改革对于缓解进出口贸易顺差,优化产业结构起着极大推动作用。     

刍议我国农产品贸易政策改革

在国际贸易领域内,农产品贸易一直处于极其特殊的地位。农业所具有的基础性地位使其关联着粮食安全、环境保护、国内政治等诸多问题。中国是一个农业大国,农业在国民经济中处于极其重要的地位。基于对上述问题的思考,以及长期以来对农业问题的关注和对农业经济学的兴趣,本文从农产品贸易自由化与农业政策变革之间的互动关系进行了分析。     

Competition policy and intellectual property rights in the information and communications technology sector: Policy implications and options for ASEAN

ASEAN exports are dominated by products with high levels of new knowledge and innovation but they are also characterised by low value addition due to limited innovation inputs in export processing. The information and communications technology sector embodies wide‐ranging opportunities for innovation‐driven value creation and structural upgrading among interdependent industries and economies. There are, however, also formidable challenges from the systemic or unexpected consequences of the anti‐trust and intellectual property policy regimes, anticompetitive business conduct, and the nuanced and layered outcomes in adjudication as regards the property rights and competition interface. The international experiences in enforcement approach and emphasis, substantive and procedural convergence, and enforcement versus advocacy have yielded some important policy insights, deployable options, and implementation prerequisites for consideration by the young or new competition authorities as well as for research attention in ASEAN and elsewhere.     

Rapid growth and changing economic structure: The expenditure side story and its implications for China

The purpose of this essay has not been to provide China with a detailed list of all of the things that the country must do to maintain a high growth rate. The purpose of this essay instead has been to analyze some of the most basic choices that China must make going forward, choices that are not yet fully understood either by government or private analysts. China has a very unusual economic structure at least on the aggregate demand side and that creates special challenges that other countries have not had to face to the same degree. How well China handles these challenges will determine whether it will continue to progress rapidly to middle income status and beyond.     

Fiscal policy and economic growth: some evidence from China

Review of World Economics - China has experienced profound economic and social changes in recent decades. During this period, China’s fiscal policy framework has been substantially reformed....     

Flexible exchange rates and perfect foresight: The implications of domestic monetary policy for foreign prices and stabilization policy

Zusammenfassung Flexible Wechselkurse und vollkommene Voraussicht: Implikationen der inl?ndischen Geldpolitik für die Preisentwicklung und Stabilisierungspolitik im Ausland. — Vorgestellt wird eine Variante mit zwei L?ndern und vollkommener Voraussicht, die auf dem 1976 von Dornbusch entwickelten Modell flexibler Wechselkurse basiert. Die Güterpreise in beiden L?ndern passen sich danach nur z?gernd der übernachfrage an. Die Isolierung des ausl?ndischen Preisniveaus von einem unerwarteten dauerhaften Anstieg der heimischen Geldmenge erfordert in dem Augenblick eine sprunghafte Erh?hung der ausl?ndischen Geldmenge, in dem es im Inland zum Anstieg kommt, gefolgt von einem Rückgang auf das frühere Niveau. Soll das ausl?ndische Preisniveau bei einer im voraus angekündigten Geldpolitik im Inland stabilisiert werden, dann mu\ die ausl?ndische Geldmenge zu dem Zeitpunkt sprunghaft erh?ht werden, zu dem die Ankündigung im Inland erfolgt. Die weitere zeitliche Entwicklung der Geldversorgung im Ausland h?ngt von bestimmten Parametern des Modells ab, die n?her erl?utert werden.

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Résumé Taux de change flexibles et la prévision parfaite: les implications des politiques monétaires locales pour les prix et la politique de stabilisation à l’étranger. — L’auteur présente une version de prévision parfaite et à deux pays d’un modèle des taux de change flexibles développé par Dornbusch en 1976. Les prix des biens dans les deux pays s’ajustent inertement à l’excès de demande. L’isolation du niveau de prix étranger d’une imprévue augmentation permanente du stock monétaire rend nécessaire un saut en stock monétaire étranger au moment où l’augmentation locale se passe, suivie par une réduction jusqu’au niveau initial. La stabilisation des prix à l’étranger au cas d’une politique locale monétaire préannoncée implique un saut en masse monétaire étrangère si l’annonce est faite. Le développement subséquent de la masse monétaire dépend des certains paramètres dans le modèle.

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Resumen Tasas de cambio flexibles y predicción perfecta: las implicaciones de la política monetaria doméstica sobre los precios externos y la política de estabilización. — Se présenta una versión de predicción perfecta de dos países de un modelo de tasas de cambio flexibles de Dornbusch de 1976. Los precios de los bienes se ajustan en ambos países lentamente al exceso de demanda. La aislación del nivel de precios extranjero de un aumento permanente no anticipado del stock monetario del pais natal requière de un salto en el stock de monedas extranjeras cuando se produce el aumento doméstico, seguido de una disminución a su nivel original. Estabilización de precios extranjeros con una pol⩼ica monetaria doméstica preanunciada envuelve un salto en la oferta monetaria extranjera cuando se hace el anuncio. La trayectoria en el tiempo de la oferta monetaria depende de ciertos parámetros en el modelo.

     

Economic crisis and policy response in Malaysia: the role of the new economic policy

Since achieving independence in 1957, Malaysia has experienced three recessions, each of which emanated from different sources of vulnerability. This paper analyses the policy response to economic crisis, in particular, the role of the New Economic Policy (NEP) which was introduced in 1970 and which remains in force today. It concludes that in spite of the diversity in the proximate causes of the crises, the policy response was consistent and sought to ensure that NEP objectives were paramount and the vested interests that had emerged as a result of the NEP and which were linked to the ruling party were preserved.     

印度金融服务外包发展政策及其对我国的启示

印度金融服务外包的快速发展离不开印度政府的政策支持,其中包括提供优惠的税收政策和制定严厉的监管制度,以及建立相应的行业协会和机构。本论文通过分析印度政策的特点及其对我国金融外包发展的启示,认为我国现有的政策制定宜采取"政策三部曲"——吸引、优化和改善等三个步骤为出发点,进一步完善促进金融外包的发展政策,加快进行相关金融制度和环境改善,从而加速我国金融服务外包的发展。