Statistical Discrimination with Peer Effects: Can Integration Eliminate Negative Stereotypes?

We introduce peer effects in the costs of human capital acquisition into a model of statistical discrimination in labour markets. This creates a link between the level of segregation in social networks and racial disparities in job assignment and wages. We show that this relationship is characterized by discontinuities: there is a threshold level of segregation below which negative stereotypes become unsustainable, and steady-state skill levels can change dramatically. This change can work in either direction: skill levels may either rise or fall in both groups. Which of these outcomes arises depends on the population share of the disadvantaged group and on the distribution of the costs of human capital investments. We also examine the effects of affirmative action policies in the presence of peer effects and provide conditions under which such policies eliminate negative stereotypes.     

Market Inertia and the Introduction of Green Products: Can Strategic Effects Justify the Porter Hypothesis?

If, according to Porter’s hypothesis, a “greener” strategy is more profitable, why may its implementation need regulatory intervention? We present a repeated Cournot duopoly where the market may exhibit inertia towards the adoption of even cost-efficient environmental goods. With consumers recognizing that a product is green only with a time lag, if a firm unilaterally adopts the green product initially loses profit due to (a) increased costs (direct effect) and (b) reduced market share (strategic effect). By imposing simultaneous adoption, regulation eliminates (b), thus enhancing long-run profitability. Through a similar mechanism a government can increase its domestic firms’ international market share and profits by forcing them to simultaneously adopt the green product.     

What Drives Urban Consumption in Mainland China? The Role of Property Price Dynamics

This paper adds to the literature on wealth effects on consumption by disentangling house price effects on consumption for mainland China. In a stochastic modelling framework, the riskiness, rate of increase and persistence of house price movements have different implications for the consumption/housing ratio. We exploit the geographical variation in property prices by using a quarterly city‐level panel data set for the period 1998Q1–2009Q4 and rely on a panel error correction model. Overall, the results suggest a significant long‐run impact of property prices on consumption. They also broadly confirm the predictions from the theoretical model.     

Strategic complementarities and social transfers: how do PROGRESA payments impact nonbeneficiaries?

The article examines local economy effects of social transfers by focusing on food consumption and asset holdings of noneligible households in rural Mexico following the introduction of Programa de Educación, Salud y Alimentación (PROGRESA) in 1997. The quasi experimental nature of the evaluation data collected for the purposes of evaluating the impact of PROGRESA enables comparison of welfare indicators among noneligible households in treatment areas and control areas. The analysis finds that noneligible households in treatment areas show significantly higher levels of food consumption and asset holdings following the introduction of PROGRESA, compared to noneligible households in control areas. These results are interpreted to suggest that transfers in poor rural areas in Mexico enable agents to interact more strategically such that nonbeneficiaries, as well as beneficiaries, reap consumption and production advantages.     

Bundled discounts: Strategic substitutes or complements?

Bundled discounts by pairs of otherwise independent firms play an increasingly important role as a strategic tool in several industries. Given that prices of firms competing for the same consumers are strategic complements, one would expect their discounts levels also to be strategic complements. However, in this paper we show that under some circumstances bundled discounts may be strategic substitutes. This occurs under vertically differentiated products where a low quality pair of producers may indeed prefer to lower its discount after an increase in the discount offered by a high quality pair of producers.     

Shifting Taxes from Labor to Consumption: More Employment and more Inequality?

This paper investigates the effect of shifting taxes from labor income to consumption on labor supply and the distribution of income in Germany. We simulate stepwise increases in the value‐added tax (VAT) rate, which are compensated by revenue‐neutral reductions in income‐related taxes. We differentiate between the personal income tax (PIT) and social security contributions (SSC). Based on a dual data base and a microsimulation model of household labor supply behavior, we find a regressive impact of such a tax shift in the short run. When accounting for labor supply adjustments, the adverse distributional impact persists for PIT reductions, while the overall effects on inequality and progressivity become lower when payroll taxes are reduced. This is partly due to increases in aggregate labor supply, resulting from higher work incentives.     

Can the Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model Account for Traders' Expected Currency Returns?

This study uses survey data on traders' exchange rate forecasts to test whether their expected excess returns are related to the covariance between the exchange rate and consumption; as predicted by the consumption capital asset pricing model (CCAPM). The covariance is measured through the novel use of rolling windows of the realized covariance (both forward and backward looking) and testing is conducted with the cointegrated VAR. The model is able to account for expected returns with more plausible degrees of risk aversion, but only when using sufficiently long, backward‐looking measures of the covariance. This suggests that market participants assess risk, in part, based upon the pro‐cyclicality of returns, and infer it from experience in the recent past. There is also evidence that inclusion of the real exchange rate improves the plausibility of the estimates and the model fit.     

The politics of growth: Can lobbying raise growth and welfare?

We consider a setup where lobbyist firms undertake contributions to an office-motivated policy maker in exchange for profit increasing regulations, in a general equilibrium model of R&D-driven growth. We find that, despite increasing concentration—which leads to higher prices and less varieties—lobbying may stimulate growth and increase welfare by means of an expansion in aggregate demand if its real costs are small. This conclusion is supported by a simple calibration exercise.     

Regulatory Uncertainty and Share Price Volatility: the English and Welsh Water Industry’s Periodic Price Review

This paper models the London stock markets response to the 1994 Periodic Review of prices in the English and Welsh water industry using both GARCH and stochastic volatility models. The results indicate that a significant reduction in the volatility of share prices for eight of the ten water and sewerage companies followed the announcement of revised industry price-caps. Investor expectations adjusted rapidly, reflecting confidence in the credibility and political sustainability of the settlement.     

Consumption over the life cycle: How different is housing?

Micro data over the life cycle show different patterns for consumption for housing and non-housing goods: The consumption profile of non-housing goods is hump-shaped, while the consumption profile for housing first increases monotonically and then flattens out. These patterns hold true at each consumption quartile. This paper develops a quantitative, dynamic, general equilibrium model of life-cycle behavior, that generates consumption profiles consistent with the observed data. Borrowing constraints are essential in explaining the accumulation of housing stock early in life, while transaction costs are crucial in generating the slow downsizing of the housing stock later in life.     

EU-Russia Strategic Energy Culture: Progressive Convergence or Regressive Dilemma?

This article argues that strategic culture, long consigned to the margins of broader, more substantial IR theories, offers a novel mode by which to explore recent developments in EU-Russia energy relations. Approaching seminal strategic policies from the perspective of institutionalised norms and cultural value-sets, strategic culture explores the power of the past and its ability to produce and influence national attitudes in governments and societies. This enables analyses of strategic energy relations between actors like the EU and Russia to move beyond obvious polarities to nuanced insights about the national value sets by which energy security is itself rendered strategic. Beginning with the individual strategic cultures of both the EU and Russia within the area of contemporary energy security policies, the article then appraises the range of bilateral EU-Russia energy security policies, suggesting that in many ways, these shared policies constitute a sector-specific strategic energy culture that includes both the EU and Russia. Areas of ongoing intransigence and policy convergence in EU-Russia energy security approaches constitute the case studies, illustrating that both sides are essentially motivated toward the same goals of energy security, market prosperity and actor-based prestige, but on the basis of vastly different visions, using widely diverse modes of implementation, and with dissimilar standards of evaluation. The analysis then appraises whether this co-constituted area is progressive or regressive in terms of the cooperation or conflict generated between the two sides, concluding that a basis of acknowleged commonalities – made available through strategic culture perspectives – both sides retain the impetus to cooperate to the point of complete agreement on some areas, whilst simultaneously remaining in conflict to the point of aggression in others.     

Combining the minimum-variance and equally-weighted portfolios: Can portfolio performance be improved?

It is documented in the literature that due to estimation errors, mean-variance efficient portfolios deliver no higher out-of-sample Sharpe ratios than does the naïve equally-weighted portfolio (EWP). This paper demonstrates how the out-of-sample performance of the minimum-variance portfolio (MVP) can be improved in the presence of estimation errors by combining the MVP and EWP. Our results indicate that an appropriate combination of the MVP and EWP can enhance Sharpe ratios under any scenarios considered, and can also reduce the portfolio risk if short-selling is allowed. However, the combination strategy is not able to generate a lower risk level than the MVP when a short-selling restriction is imposed. We find that the optimal combination coefficient depends on the factors that greatly impact estimation errors in the MVP, including sample size, estimation method, no-short-selling restriction, and length of the out-of-sample period under consideration.     

Can sustained economic growth and declining population coexist?

Most of the developed countries have been experiencing sub-replacement fertility. This leads to worries over the sustainability of economic growth in these countries. Given this concern, we ask the following questions: Is there a force that would allow economic growth and declining population to coexist? Is there a mechanism that could reverse the decline in fertility? We argue that returns to human capital in production provide the key to understanding this relation. Our theoretical framework predicts that, when the degree of increasing returns to human capital in traditional production technologies falls, advanced economies switch their productive efforts from labor-oriented technologies that require a constant creation of young workforce toward human capital-oriented technologies that support an ageing population. We call this shift the “endogenous efficiency-augmenting mechanism”. This suggests that sustained economic growth and a declining population can coexist in the long run. Finally, we compare our model against the data and find: (i) The degree of increasing returns to human capital has been falling over time throughout the world along with population growth rates. (ii) Increasing returns to human capital and population growth rates are positively correlated. (iii) Predictions of our model are consistent with what the data reveal.     

Punishment and counter-punishment in public good games: Can we really govern ourselves?

A number of experimental studies have shown that the opportunity to punish anti-social behavior increases cooperation levels when agents face a social dilemma. Using a public good experiment, I show that in the presence of counter-punishment opportunities cooperators are less willing to punish free riders. As a result, cooperation breaks down and groups have lower earnings in comparison to a treatment without punishments where free riding is predominant. Approximately one quarter of all punishments are retaliated. Counter-punishments appear to be driven partly by strategic considerations and partly by a desire to reciprocate punishments.     

Strategic Technology Alliances: A Way to Innovative Enterprises in Russia?

This article examines whether, how, and to what extent international technology partnerships of Russian enterprises and research institutes contribute to their technological capability building. It presents results obtained by analysis of both a unique survey of Russian enterprises and research institutes co-operating with Western partners in seven selected high-technology fields and four Russian regions with a high concentration of R&D, and additional evidence from 16 in-depth interviews with managers of such Russian high-technology entities (HTE).     

Price leadership and firm size asymmetry: an experimental analysis

We use laboratory experiments to examine the effect of firm size asymmetry on the emergence of price leadership in a price-setting duopoly with capacity constraints. Independent of the level of size asymmetry, the unique subgame perfect equilibrium of our timing game predicts that the large firm is the price leader. Experimental data show that price leadership by the large firm is frequent, but simultaneous moves are also often observed. Profit outcomes in the previous period affect the subjects’ decisions to announce or wait in a way that hampers convergence to the equilibrium. Furthermore, while both small and large firms display a strong tendency to wait to announce their price when firm size asymmetry is low, they often set prices early when size asymmetry is high. Prices are higher when price setting is sequential rather than simultaneous and when firm size asymmetry is high. Hence, price leadership by either type of firm has an anti-competitive effect that is more pronounced when the size difference between firms is large.