ESTIMATING EXPECTED EXCESS RETURNS USING HISTORICAL AND OPTION‐IMPLIED VOLATILITY

We test the relation between expected and realized excess returns for the S&P 500 index from January 1994 through December 2003 using the proportional reward‐to‐risk measure to estimate expected returns. When risk is measured by historical volatility, we find no relation between expected and realized excess returns. In contrast, when risk is measured by option‐implied volatility, we find a positive and significant relation between expected and realized excess returns in the 1994–1998 subperiod. In the 1999–2003 subperiod, the option‐implied volatility risk measure yields a positive, but statistically insignificant, risk‐return relation. We attribute this performance difference to the fact that, in the 1994–1998 subperiod, return volatility was lower and the average return was much higher than in the 1999–2003 subperiod, thereby increasing the signal‐to‐noise ratio in the latter subperiod.     

Real option analysis of a technology portfolio

This article contributes to methodology of real options analysis of investments in capital intensive process industries, where relatively homogenous outputs are produced using commonly known production technologies. In addition to capacity expansion, the method can be used for analysis of mergers and acquisitions. Valuation of the real option is based on bid price; i.e., the maximum price the firm is willing to pay. To find such a price, stochastic optimization with an expected utility criterion is used to determine investments in product specific technologies as well as in publicly traded financial instruments (the competing investments). To operationalize the valuation principle, we develop a double binary tree employing Kalman filter for scenario generation. For exponential utility, valuation is carried out by dynamic programming. We extend known methods to allow interdependence of the mill cash flow and return on competing financial investments. For forest industries, we provide an illustration, where the underlying price process in our Kalman filter application is a vector error correction model.     

Long‐term Performance of Greek IPOs

We analyse the long‐run performance of 254 Greek IPOs that were listed during the period 1994–2002, computing buy‐and‐hold abnormal returns (BHAR) and cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) over 36 months of secondary market performance. The empirical results differ from international evidence and reveal long‐term overperformance that continues for a substantial interval after listing. Measuring these returns in calendar time, we find statistical significance with several of the benchmarks employed. We also find that long‐term overperformance is a feature of the mass of IPOs conducted during a pronounced IPO wave. Cross‐sectional regressions of long‐run performance disclose several significant factors. The study demonstrates that although Greek IPOs overperform the market for a longer period, underperformance eventually emerges, in line with much international evidence. Our interpretation is that the persistence of overperformance over a significant interval is due to excessive supply of issues during the ‘hot IPO period’. Results associated with pricing during the ‘hot IPO period’ indicate positive short‐ (1‐year), medium‐ (2‐year) and negative long‐term (3‐year) performance.     

Distinguishing Between Rationales for Short‐Horizon Predictability of Stock Returns

In this paper, we shed light on short‐horizon return reversals. We show theoretically that a risk‐based rationale for reversals implies a relation between returns and past order flow, whereas a reversion in beliefs of biased agents does not do so. The empirical results indicate that returns are more strongly related to own‐return lags than to lagged order imbalances. Thus, the evidence suggests that monthly reversals are not completely captured by inventory effects and may be driven, in part, by belief reversion. We do find that returns are cross‐sectionally related to lagged imbalance innovations at horizons longer than a month.     

Short‐Horizon Return Predictability in International Equity Markets

This study measures the degree of short‐horizon return predictability of 50 international equity markets and examines how its variation is related to the indicators of equity market development. Two multiple‐horizon variance ratio tests are employed to measure the degree of return predictability. We find evidence that return predictability is negatively correlated with publicly available indicators of equity market development. Our cross‐sectional regression analysis shows that the per capita gross domestic product, market turnover, investor protection, and absence of short‐selling restrictions are correlated with cross‐market variations in return predictability.     

ROBUSTNESS OF THE HEADQUARTERS‐CITY EFFECT ON STOCK RETURNS

Recent studies report that U.S. firms headquartered near each other experience positive comovement in their stock returns, a finding suggestive of local biases in equity trading activity. We investigate the robustness of these findings and find that including additional pricing factors in models for monthly stock returns materially reduces the magnitude of the headquarters‐city effect in stock returns. Additionally, we find that an implicit null hypothesis of zero local return comovement is inappropriate as there is positive comovement between a stock's return and returns on portfolios of stocks from nonheadquarters cities, on average. Nevertheless, results benchmarked against estimates based on resampling methods indicate a significant and robust headquarters‐city effect in stock returns.     

On the Stability of the Cross‐Section of Expected Stock Returns in the Cross‐Section: Understanding the Curious Role of Share Turnover

In this paper, we shed further light on cross‐sectional predictors of stock return performance. Specifically, we explore whether the cross‐section of expected stock returns is robust within stock groups sorted by past monthly return. We find that the book/market and momentum effects are remarkably robust to sorting on past returns. However, share turnover is negatively related to future returns for stocks with abnormally low stock price performance in the recent past, but postively related to returns for well‐performing stocks. This casts doubt on the use of turnover as a liquidity proxy, but is consistent with turnover being a proxy for momentum trading which pushes prices in the direction of past price movements. Our results are robust to both NYSE/AMEX and Nasdaq stocks, and also robust to stratifying the sample by time period.     

Risk‐Adjusted Long‐Term Contrarian Profits: Evidence from Non‐S&P 500 High‐Volume Stocks

Can trading volume help unravel the long‐term overreaction puzzle? With portfolios of non‐S&P 500 NYSE stocks, we show that (1) both the high‐ and low‐volume (abnormal volume) contrarian portfolios earn a much higher market‐adjusted excess return than the normal‐volume contrarian portfolio, (2) however, when leverage‐induced risk is factored in, excess returns from contrarian portfolios with normal‐ and low‐volume stocks are insignificant, (3) only excess returns from high‐volume contrarian stocks are significant and cannot be explained by the time‐varying risk and return framework, and (4) such high‐volume, risk‐adjusted excess returns arise mainly from winner (glamour) stocks.     

The decreasing value of non‐SOEs’ political connections during China’s anti‐corruption campaign: evidence and mechanism

In this paper, we find that China’s anti‐corruption campaign since 2012 significantly reduces the value of political connections for non‐state‐owned enterprises (non‐SOEs). We provide evidence showing that the decline of the value of political connections for non‐SOEs is attributed mainly to the decreasing return from political connections, instead of increasing political risk. We further find that the decreasing return of the politically connected firms is driven mainly by the disappearance of the ‘resource effect’ of political connection in facilitating access to bank credit and government subsidies, but not due to the increasing cost of maintaining political connections.     

Information Asymmetry,Trade Size,and the Dynamic Volume‐Return Relation: Evidence from the Australian Securities Exchange

This paper investigates the influence of information asymmetry on the cross‐sectional variation of volume‐return relation. We find that the dynamic volume‐return relation within medium‐size trades has the most significant response to the degree of information asymmetry. We also show that the effect of information asymmetry on the volume‐return dynamics migrates to small‐size trades in recent years, especially in larger stocks. These results are consistent with the notion that informed traders prefer medium‐size trades and this preference has shifted to small‐size trades. Our findings highlight the importance of incorporating informed traders’ trade‐size decision in the examination of the dynamic volume‐return relation.     

INFORMATION ASYMMETRY,DIVIDEND STATUS,AND SEO ANNOUNCEMENT‐DAY RETURNS

We analyze the relation between the dividend‐paying status of a firm and the seasoned equity offering (SEO) announcement‐day return. Asymmetric information theory suggests there should be a positive relation: the larger the disagreement, particularly between managers and shareholders, the larger the price drop on the SEO announcement day. However, this theoretical result has not been supported by prior empirical research. In this article we reconcile the gap between the theory and extant empirical results by identifying a structural change in the way the stock market treats dividend‐paying firms. Since the mid‐1980s the difference in information asymmetry between dividend‐ and non‐dividend‐paying firms has increased sharply. As a result, before the mid‐1980s the market did not differentiate strongly between them, but subsequently the market has reacted less negatively to announcements by dividend payers.     

DAY‐END EFFECT ON THE PARIS BOURSE

We study the day‐end effect on the Paris Bourse, a computerized order‐driven market with competing dealers. The day‐end return is approximately double the magnitude found in U.S. data and is nearly four times larger for stocks trading with a registered dealer. However, this is largely explained by the time between trades and the bid‐ask spread. Unlike the U.S. data, the effect does not decline as stock price increases, probably because of a variable tick size in the Paris market. Finally, a change to a closing call auction in May 1996 for a subset of stocks did not reduce the day‐end effect.     

Investment Dynamics and Earnings‐Return Properties: A Structural Approach

We propose the standard neoclassical model of investment under uncertainty with short‐run adjustment frictions as a benchmark for earnings‐return patterns absent accounting influences. We show that our proposed benchmark generates a wide range of earnings‐return patterns documented in accounting research. Notably, our model generates a concave earnings‐return relation, similar to that of Basu [1997], and predicts that the earnings‐return concavity increases with the volatility of firms’ underlying shock processes and decreases with the level of firms’ investments. We find strong empirical support for these predictions. Overall, our evidence suggests that our proposed benchmark is useful for understanding the joint dynamics of variables of interest to accounting research (e.g., earnings, returns, investment, market‐to‐book) absent accounting influences, a necessary precondition for inferring the effects of accounting from these dynamics.     

Emerging from Bankruptcy with When‐Issued Trading

We examine the set of firms that emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy and traded on a when‐issued basis before their official return to the regular way in NASDAQ, Amex, or NYSE. We find that this when‐issued market is liquid and price efficient. The when‐issued closing price is a good indicator of the first closing price in the regular way market. Emerging firms that have when‐issued trading experience lower regular way volatility and smaller relative spreads than those without when‐issued trading. Our probit regressions show that firm size is an important determinant of the adoption of when‐issued trading.     

EXPECTED VOLATILITY,UNEXPECTED VOLATILITY,AND THE CROSS‐SECTION OF STOCK RETURNS

The existing literature finds conflicting results on the cross‐sectional relation between expected returns and idiosyncratic volatility. We contend that at the firm level, the sample correlation between unexpected returns and expected idiosyncratic volatility can cloud the true relation between the expected return and expected idiosyncratic volatility. We show strong evidence that unexpected idiosyncratic volatility is positively related to unexpected returns. Using unexpected idiosyncratic volatility to control for unexpected returns, we find expected idiosyncratic volatility to be significantly and positively related to expected returns. This result holds after controlling for various firm characteristics, and it is robust across different sample periods.     

Time‐Varying Risk–Return Trade‐off in the Stock Market

We uncover a strong comovement of the stock market risk–return trade‐off with the consumption–wealth ratio (CAY). The finding reflects time‐varying investment opportunities rather than countercyclical aggregate relative risk aversion. Specifically, the partial risk–return trade‐off is positive and constant when we control for CAY as a proxy for investment opportunities. Moreover, conditional market variance scaled by CAY is negatively priced in the cross‐section of stock returns. Our results are consistent with a limited stock market participation model, in which shareholders require an illiquidity premium that increases with CAY, in addition to the risk premium that is proportional to conditional market variance.     

DIVERGENCE OF OPINION AND LONG‐TERM PERFORMANCE OF INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERINGS

Miller's hypothesis posits that divergence of opinion can lead to asset overvaluation and subsequent long‐term underperformance in markets (such as initial public offerings [IPOs]) with restricted short‐selling. Consistent with this hypothesis, we find that early‐market return volatility, a proxy for divergence of opinion, is negatively related to subsequent IPO long‐term abnormal returns. This relation holds after accounting for other factors that previous studies suggest affect long‐term abnormal returns for IPOs (including another proxy for divergence of opinion). Moreover, we find that this relation is stronger in IPO markets than in non‐IPO markets (where short‐selling restrictions are less stringent), again consistent with Miller's hypothesis.     

A Tale of Two Anomalies: Higher Returns of Low‐Risk Stocks and Return Seasonality

Prior studies have shown that low beta and low volatility stocks earn higher average returns than high beta and high volatility stocks, contradicting the prediction of the capital asset pricing model and the fundamental relationship between risk and return. In this paper, we demonstrate that this phenomenon is driven by the seasonality of stock returns. We show that the risk‐return tradeoff does hold in the nonsummer months, and that switching to a portfolio of low‐risk stocks in summer outperforms—both in terms of absolute and in risk‐adjusted returns—buy and hold strategies as well as the Sell in May strategy of switching to treasury bills in summer.     

Bad beta good beta,state‐space news decomposition and the cross‐section of stock returns

This study employs an innovative market‐based approach, where return on equity (ROE) is employed as a proxy for cash‐flow news and a state‐space model is used for market news decomposition. We document that the bad beta good beta (BBGB) model of Campbell and Vuolteenaho (2004) explains about 30 per cent of the cross‐sectional variations in US stock returns. We also find that the BBGB model adequately explains the size effect leading to its superior performance in this area. Our method controls for the news decomposition method and market news proxies’ bias. We contribute to the literature by providing an alternative easy‐to‐implement and consistent market‐based method for news decomposition.     

Equity‐Based Incentives,Risk Aversion,and Merger‐Related Risk‐Taking Behavior

We find that post‐merger equity risk is negatively related to the sensitivity of CEO wealth to stock return volatility (vega), but is concentrated in CEOs with high proportions of options and options that are more in‐the‐money. The probability of industrial diversification also increases in vega. Additional tests show that the decline in post‐merger equity risk results in a significant decrease in shareholder wealth. This decrease is concentrated among firms with CEOs having the highest delta and the highest delta and vega. Our results suggest that the increased convexity provided by option‐based compensation does not necessarily increase risk‐taking behavior by CEOs.