Learning in Elections and Voter Turnout

Voter turnout in game theoretic models of voting has typically been difficult to predict because of the problem of multiple Nash equilibria ( Palfrey and Rosenthal 1983, 1985 ). Many of these equilibria require an extreme precision of beliefs among voters that is unlikely to be reached in real elections. At the same time, mechanisms like pre‐election polls exist to shape the beliefs of voters about expected turnout. We combine these two features in a model of voter learning in elections and characterize the asymptotically stable equilibria of both complete and incomplete information games in a simple symmetric setting with two candidates. We also show how the model can be used to qualitatively explain several phenomena observed in reality: increases in costs of voting affect turnout adversely but there may be persistence of turnout levels between elections even though costs and other parameters change. Increase in uncertainty increases turnout while increases in the size of the electorate decrease it, in line with intuition.     

Searching for the Downsian Voter with a Simple Structural Model

Studies of voter turnout consistently find that turnout responds to the closeness of the election, yet it is widely claimed that the probability of casting the deciding vote is too minute to be of consequence. We provide evidence on this puzzle by deriving a structural rational voting model in the form of a relatively simple regression equation, and fitting it to data from a large sample of US congressional elections.     

The Politics of Foreign Aid: A Median Voter Perspective

The paper presents a model where the median voter in the donor country determines the support of foreign aid. It is first established that an individual in the donor country is affected by the direct benefits (due to altruism) and costs (due to taxes) of giving aid, and by the indirect benefits or costs of a change in the terms of trade. Then it is shown that the latter effect works through changing both the donor country's average income and its distribution of income. Given the stylized facts of a capital-abundant donor country and relatively capital-poor median voter, it is shown how redistribution-of-income effects soften the impact of terms-of-trade changes on the political support for foreign aid.     

Exploring Voter Preferences in Cultural Policy: A Case Study for Austria

The aim of the paper is to explore the demographic, social, economic and politicaldeterminants of voting behavior in a recently held referendum on the constructionof a new theater (``Musiktheater') in the city of Linz (Upper Austria) in 2000. Itwas the first referendum on cultural policy of its kind in Austria, and it led to arejection of the proposal by a majority of the voters (59.70% of ``No' votes).Exploring the determinants of approval or disapproval of the proposition by usingfor group data in communities is thus an interesting question from an economic aswell as a political point of view. We find econometric evidence for the influence ofthe size of the population in the community, the distance of the community from thecity of Linz, income-related variables, variables denoting the economic structure ofthe community, and political variables such as the ratio of the communities' debt torevenues and voters' preferences in the last national election.     

基于信息修正的非期望效用模型

人们对事件发生的可能性存在着主观判断。在不同的概率区间,人们对概率变化的敏感度是不一样的。传统的期望效用理论忽视了决策者对概率的主观反应,无法准确描述风险决策行为。基于信息修正的非期望效用模型,将客观概率转换成主观决策权重,可以弥补期望效用模型在捕捉决策者对概率主观反应方面的缺陷;同时,利用基于信息修正的非期望效用模型,通过量化人们在购买保险或股票时对风险的主观概率判断,可以对人们的保险需求和证券投资行为作出更好的解释或预测。     

基于JIT的一种混流生产排序模型

混流生产排序是国际上制造业领域的热点问题。运用数学规划方法及生产作业排队理论,建立了一种基于准时生产的同质产品的混流生产排序模型。研究结果认为,该模型将有益于中国制造业的发展。     

一个基于行为主体的在线信任形成机理模型

消费者在线信任被视为B2C电子商务成功的必备条件,并得到很多学者的关注。但由于研究者的研究视角和关注焦点的不同,导致了目前在线信任理解上的复杂和混乱。本文在梳理各个学科对信任的定义和理解的基础上,识别出在线交易环境中的行为主体,通过文献回顾整理出各信任行为主体的信任属性,最后提出了一个在线信任形成模型。     

基于钻石模型的福建省生态农业竞争力研究

本文尝试运用钻石模型剖析福建省生态农业的竞争力,并在此基础上结合灰色关联度分析法对福建省与其他华东诸省生态农业的竞争力进行比较,研究结果显示：相对而言,福建省生态农业的总体竞争力水平较低,仅在高级生产要素及机遇方面具有一定优势,我们应从优化生产要素、拉动需求和拓宽政策导向等方面来提升福建省生态农业竞争力。     

产业结构变动对货币流通速度的影响——中国货币流通速度下降之谜

文章运用协整分析、格兰杰因果检验和误差修正模型实证研究了中国产业结构变动与货币流通速度之间的动态关系以及“货币化假说”。实证分析结果显示货币化对货币流通速度的影响随着时间逐渐增强,但这并不能完全解释我国货币流通速度下降;产业结构变动才是影响我国货币流通速度下降的主要原因。通过误差修正模型发现我国狭义货币流通速度相对于产业结构变动的弹性为2.7,广义货币流通速度相对于产业结构变动的弹性为1.2。     

内源性-外源性动机的仆人式领导理论

服务领导是近年来西方领导学的前沿课题。尽管过去几年对服务领导的研究甚多,学者们尚未对此概念的精确定义与模型有所共识。本文在综览现有相关文献的基础上,寻找其共性,结合逻辑推理给出了新的整合定义,并在此基础上提出了基于内源性一外源性动机理论的服务领导理论模型。     

Political Resource Allocation: Benefits and Costs of Voter Initiatives

This article explores the benefits and costs of the voter initiative,a direct democracy device that allows policy decisions to bemade by voters rather than their elected representatives. Previousresearch suggests that by introducing "competition" into theproposal process, the initiative leads to policies that arecloser to the median voter's ideal point. In our model, in contrast,the effect of the initiative is conditional on the severityof representative agency problems and uncertainty about voterpreferences. The initiative always makes the voter better offwhen representatives are faithful agents, but when voter preferencesare uncertain, initiatives can cause "shirking" representativesto choose policies farther from the voter's ideal point. Ourevidence shows that initiatives are more common in states withheterogeneous populations, and initiatives reduce state spendingwhen Democrats control the government and when citizens havediverse preferences.     

中国碳减排政策的模拟分析——基于中国能源CGE模型的研究

通过构建中国能源CGE模型,在模型中引入碳税和碳排放变量,细化出能源部门,并将煤炭、石油和天然气三种主要能源作为生产要素,设定节能减排基准情景,针对碳减排、碳税和能源结构调整这三个不同的能源政策对经济发展以及碳排放的冲击效果进行了模拟分析.模拟结果表明,单一的能源政策总有不足之处,要么减排效果欠佳,要么严重制约经济发展,因此国家应该将减排政策系统化,构造一个适应现实需要的低碳经济政策体系.     

基于价值的股票价格理性波动模型

如何区别股票价格中的理性波动和非理性波动是市场参与者面临的主要问题。利用伊滕定理和鞅过程的性质。提出基于价值的股票价格理性波动模型。利用该模型可以界定股票价格的运行状态。     

基于股东中心主义的国有公司治理模型分析

本文采用共同代理模型,结合我国国有公司独特的治理背景．在股东中心主义的理论基础上,运用分布参数模型法求解最优的国有公司经理努力水平。讨论了国有股东效用组成、股权结构和激励机制等因素对最优的经理努力水平的影响。研究发现,国有公司股权需要一定的集中度．但并不应该人为规定股权比例,激励与努力不存在单调关系,激励机制的效果取决于多种激励手段的综合运用。     

基于战略匹配的核心员工动态识别模型

核心员工识别方法上的缺陷源于核心员工概念界定不清。本文在梳理核心员工概念界定基础上,对核心员工的高绩效性、难以替代性和战略匹配度三者之间的关系进行了深入研究,认为核心员工群体是随着战略变革而动态变化的。从绩效、替代难度和战略匹配度三维视角上对核心员工进行了再定义,认为战略性绩效突出、战略性替代难度大、战略匹配度高的员工才是企业的核心员工,基于此提出了核心员工动态识别模型。