Housing Market and Current Account Imbalances in the International Economy

This paper presents a two‐sector, two‐country model showing that inflation in the housing market, a low personal savings rate, and a construction investment boom can contribute to a large current account deficit. In the model, demand by a group of households in the domestic country is constrained by the availability of collateral. This implies more procyclical debt capacity because constrained households can borrow against the increase in the value of their houses during an expansion. A higher degree of financial liberalization and development helps constrained households reach higher loan‐to‐value ratios, thus relaxing their borrowing constraints. The resulting higher net worth and lower need for savings imply a worsening current account.     

全球经常项目失衡的影响因素——基于跨国数据的实证分析

全球经常项目失衡是影响当前世界经济健康发展的一个不确定性因素,经过多年累积,它已经发展成为威胁全球经济活力的重要隐患.借助于全球范围内56个国家或地区1980-2005年的经济数据,针对影响经常项目失衡的多种因素进行实证检验,结果表明,当前全球经常项目失衡与各国政府的财政收支状况密切相关.政府财政收支对经常项目收支具有显著的正效应;相对劳动生产率对于发达国家经常项目收支影响作用相对突出;金融开放度对经常项目收支具有显著的负效应,但金融深化对经常项目收支的影响作用却没有得到明显的经验证据.因此,在世界经济增速放缓以及全球经济正在进入新的不稳定地带的情况下,只有通过有效的国际经济政策协调,才能促进当前全球经常项目失衡问题的有序解决.     

Current Account Imbalances and Real Exchange Rates in the Euro Area*

Global current account imbalances have been one of the focal points of interest for policymakers during the last few years. Less attention has been paid, however, to the diverging current account balances of the individual euro area countries. In this paper we consider the dynamics of current account adjustment and the role of real exchange rates in current account determination in the EMU countries. After controlling for the effects of income growth, we find the relationship between real exchange rates and current accounts to be substantial in size and subject to nonlinear effects. We find that real exchange rates can offer further insights, beyond the effects of the income catch‐up process, relevant to current account determination in the EMU.     

Global Current Account Imbalances: American Fiscal Policy versus East Asian Savings*

We consider the origins of global current account imbalances. We first discuss how the expansion of the US current account deficit and the decrease in global real interest rates can be reconciled with the widespread view that American expansionary fiscal policy is partly the source of current trends. We then investigate empirically the medium‐term determinants of the current account using a model that controls for factors related to institutional development. In addition to the conventional macroeconomic factors, we examine a series of environmental factors, including the degree of financial openness and the extent of legal development. We find that for industrial countries, the government budget balance is an important determinant of the current account balance; the budget balance coefficient is 0.10 to 0.49 depending on model specifications. These varying estimates lead us to conclude that fiscal factors might be as important as excess savings arising from East Asia.     

外商直接投资与技术外溢:基于吸收能力的研究

通过构建基于中间产品种类扩张型的内生增长模型,本文证实了技术吸收能力对技术外溢效果的决定作用,利用我国1996—2002年30个省市的面板数据进行估计的结果支持了这一结论。进一步实证表明,东部地区人力资本投资相对滞后制约了技术吸收能力,而中西部地区提高技术吸收能力的关键是增强经济开放度。     

Macroeconomic Policy Making,Exchange Rate Adjustment and Current Account Imbalances in Emerging Markets

Given a series of crisis events after 2007 the discussion about the adjustment channels of current account imbalances has been revived. We examine the role of exchange rates vs macroeconomic policies as determinants of current accounts for a set of 86 mainly emerging market economies between 1990 and 2013 to identify adjustment channels for global imbalances. We find that nominal exchange rates are not the main determinant of current account positions. Instead, depending on the region, monetary and/or fiscal policies are identified as the main driving force of current accounts. For East Asia and the oil exporting countries sterilization policies, i.e. relatively tight monetary policies, are the main determinants. In contrast for many European periphery countries fiscal policy stances are at the core of current account positions. Only for the Latin American countries does the exchange rate play a significant role as determinant of current account positions.     

人力资本风险投资:一个人力资本持续投资的分析框架

市场经济条件下人力资本投资具有高风险性,如何促使人力资本各投资主体将更多的资本转移到人力资本投资领域并得以持续投资,显然需要一种新的理念,人力资本风险投资及其分析框架的构建是符合现阶段经济实际的一个重要命题假说。论文基于人力资本投资的不确定性和损失性,提出并界定人力资本风险投资概念,分析人力资本风险投资主体选择及其相互关系,着力构建人力资本风险投资周期及风险管理理论和技术模型,为人力资本投资风险分散提供一种新的分析框架。     

Technology Collaboration and Foreign Equity Participation: A Theoretical Analysis

Technology transfer to the developing nations has been predominantly characterized by technology collaborations between the multinationals and the local firms of these developing countries. When a multinational offers a new technology to a local firm, the firms may have different perceptions regarding the success rate of the technology in the local conditions. This paper discusses various types of contractual arrangements with equity participation by the multinational, which dominate pure technology collaboration agreements.     

Exchange Rate Flexibility and Current Account Adjustment: A Threshold VAR Analysis

Global imbalances (current account imbalances) have become an important issue for economists and policy makers. Greater exchange rate flexibility is often suggested as a means to achieve faster and more efficient adjustment in the current account. However, previous empirical studies show little support for this hypothesis. This paper revisits this issue with a large panel dataset and a threshold VAR model and finds that (1) some existing popular exchange rate classifications may not capture actual exchange rate variability as well as expected; (2) Once exchange rate variability is correctly identified, the speed of mean reversion in the current account balance is indeed higher in a regime with greater exchange rate variability.     

Threshold Effects in the Capital Account Liberalization and Foreign Direct Investment Relationship

This paper examines how capital account liberalization （CAL） affects foreign direct investment （FDI） inflows. Authors use a dynamic panel model encompassing 14 Middle East countries over the period from 1985 to 2009. The findings suggest that countries that are able to reap the benefits of the capital openness policy satisfy certain threshold conditions regarding the level of financial development and institutional quality. Thus to promote FDI, governments in this region should develop a set of policies that not only focus on financial openness, but also on the improvement of the financial system and legal institutions.     

出口平台型直接投资研究综述

出口平台型投资是经济全球化浪潮中出现的一种新型投资模式，区别于在东道国销售的水平型投资和返销母国的垂直型投资。出口平台型直接投资生产的产品主要面向第三国销售。由于传统的两国模型根本无法分析向第三国出口的出口平台型投资，该概念仅仅在最近几年才出现在经济学文献中。本文在总结现有出口平台型投资理论研究和实证研究成果的基础上，说明出口平台型投资对东道国外资流入和投资国贸易的基本影响。     

External Imbalances and the US Current Account: How Supply‐Side Changes Affect an Exchange Rate Adjustment*

The influential work of Obstfeld and Rogoff argues that a closing‐up of the US current account deficit involves a large exchange rate adjustment. However, the Obstfeld–Rogoff model works exclusively via demand‐side channels and abstracts from possible supply‐side changes. We extend the framework to allow for endogenous supply‐side changes and show that this fundamentally alters the mechanism of the adjustment process. Allowing for such an extension attenuates quite significantly the implied exchange rate adjustment. The paper also provides some empirical evidence of variations in the supply‐side structure and correlations with the exchange rate and the current account. The policy implications are that measures to foster a supply‐side reaction would facilitate the external adjustment by alleviating an exclusive reliance on demand and exchange rate changes, with the latter being potentially destabilizing for the global financial system.     

当前国际直接投资特点及我国政策建议

受国际金融危机影响,全球国际直接投资持续下滑,发达国家尤为突出。从总量上看,发达国家仍然主导国际直接投资格局,但从增量和发展趋势来看,新兴市场国家正在改变国际直接投资格局,发达国家限制外资的政策也有所松动。我国应抓住有利时机,优化利用外资结构,提升利用外资水平,同时,加快我国海外并购与投资步伐,借鉴国际经验、健全对外投资促进机构,为我国对外直接投资的企业提供服务。     

跨国直接投资区位的行为经济学分析

跨国直接投资的区位研究一直是理论界的一个热点,但目前的研究都是在新古典经济学的框架之下进行的。本文运用行为经济学的基本理论对跨国直接投资区位理论进行研究,认为经济结构、文化、空间偏好等也是影响跨国企业对外直接投资区位选择的因素。     

Licensing of New Technology Versus Direct Foreign Investment: A General Equilibrium Analysis

In a general equilibrium model with sector-specific capital, a country which licenses new technology and imports capital itself would have lower national income than if it permitted direct investment by foreigners with rights to the technology. However, the reverse can be true if capital is mobile between sectors. Thus, licensing is a poor policy in the short run but can be a good policy in the long run.     

关于外资进入我国的策略分析及对策

通过分析我国加入WTO前后所面临的冲击和压力、外资进入我国的类型、方式、目的与扩张的策略，针对引进外资过程中存在的问题，我们必须加快制订和完善外商投资法规，保护国内经济安全，扩大开放，在竞争中提高国内企业的竞争力。     

FDI与中国经常项目的实证分析

本文基于储蓄—投资的视角,采用时间序列计量技术,在5个变量系统内检验了外国直接投资对中国经常项目的影响。结果显示:经常项目、外国直接投资、名义汇率、名义利率以及GDP等5个变量之间存在长期的协整关系;利率、汇率不是经常项目的Granger原因,外国直接投资和GDP是经常项目的Granger原因,外国直接投资的增加导致经常项目顺差增加,GDP增加导致经常项目顺差减少。其政策含义在于,通过对包括外国直接投资和国内需求在内的有关宏观经济变量的调整可以有效调节中国的经常项目收支。     

The Relative Dynamics of Investment and the Current Account in the G7-Economies

This paper contributes to the empirics of the intertemporal approach to the current account. We use a cointegrated VAR framework to identify permanent and transitory components of country-specific and global shocks. Our approach allows us to investigate empirically the sensitivity to persistence implied by many forward-looking models and our results shed new light on the excess volatility of investment encountered by Glick and Rogoff (1995). In G7 data, we find the relative current-account and investment response to be in line with the intertemporal approach.