基于GWR模型的南京市住宅地价影响因素及其边际价格作用研究

研究目的：以南京市为例,探索城市住宅地价影响因素及其边际作用空间变化性及各因素边际作用大小空间分布状况,为城市土地科学管理提供帮助。研究方法：地理加权回归模型（GWR）。研究结果：（1）地铁站点、商业网点、水景观、绿地公园对住宅地均价的边际影响能力的空间变化性强,高等学校、医院等其他因素边际作用的空间变化性较弱;（2）容积率住宅地价边际增值能力高于其他因素,各因素在具体不同地块上边际作用能力高低不同。研究结论： GWR模型可以改进传统空间回归方法,可对城市地价影响因素边际价格作用空间变化性进行良好的估计;住宅土地价格对快速交通、商服条件及自然景观因素较为敏感,反映主城区人们对住宅便捷性及休憩性呈强偏好;容积率边际增值能力空间变化弱与土地的住宅性用途有关,但容积率始终是边际增值能力最高的因素; GIS良好的输出图像可视化技术能够指导相关部门调控具体地块的主要规划因素,促进城市土地科学管理。     

Capitalisation of residential solar photovoltaic systems in Western Australia

Due to government financial incentives and falling prices of photovoltaic (PV) systems, solar power has become the fastest growing renewable energy source in Australia. As financial incentives are being reduced or phased out, there is a possibility that adoption of this technology will slow down, thus creating a need for improved policy instruments targeted at adoption of residential PV systems. One of the factors affecting adoption of solar technology in the residential sector is its capitalisation in property values. Yet, the awareness of the capitalisation of PV investments in the Australian property market is limited. Our data indicate that homeowners who anticipate selling their properties in the near future are reluctant to adopt PV systems. This paper presents the first empirical estimate of the property price premiums associated with residential solar PV systems in Australia using residential property sales data from the Perth metropolitan area of Western Australia. An estimated 2.3–3.2 per cent property price premium associated with the PV systems suggests that homeowners fully recover the costs of PV investments upon the sale of their properties. Effective government policy could use this information to encourage adoption of residential PV systems by homeowners.     

The changing United Kingdom residential real estate market

Summary

The residential property market is dependent upon the overall well‐being of the economy, with movements of the residential property prices following a cyclical movement over time. The macro‐economic factors that influence prices are studied for the United Kingdom and compared with results from other countries. In the United Kingdom's case interest rates, building costs, the number of new housing starts, disposable income, investment in other assets, inflation and expectations play important roles in the determination of residential price movements.

In addition, the numbers of new housing developments that are started are determined by interest rates, disposable income, building costs and expectations of property price rises. The building costs are also determined by wage rates, interest rates and the rate of inflation.     

Assessing economic instruments to steer urban residential sprawl,using a hedonic pricing simulation modelling approach

Over the past centuries, cities have undergone major transformations that led to global urbanization. One of the phenomena emerging from urbanization is urban sprawl, defined as the uncontrolled spread of cities into undeveloped areas. The decrease in housing prices and commuting costs as well as the failure to internalize the real costs associated with natural land, led to households moving-out into the urban fringe – resulting in fragmented, low-density residential development patterns that has multiple negative impacts. Awareness for this problem has fed the need for the implementation of effective policies against urban residential sprawl – a subject that has received considerable attention in literature, albeit little attention has been given to economic incentive instruments. Hence, the objective of this paper is to assess the effectiveness of different economic instruments in steering urban residential sprawl – assessing property taxes, land taxes and public transport subsidies. To this end, the Sustainable Urbanizing Landscape Development (SULD) model is used and adapted, and a case study is provided for the medium-sized City of Aveiro in central Portugal. Results show that a flat property tax and a public transport subsidy for low and middle-income households are the most efficient instruments, leading to a decrease in urban residential area, living space and housing quantity as well as an increase in real estate values. On the other hand, a land tax results in insignificant changes in urban residential development patterns.     

The impact of agricultural conservation easement on nearby house prices: Incorporating spatial autocorrelation and spatial heterogeneity

The impact of farmland under agricultural conservation easement (ACE) contract on the values of nearby residential properties is investigated using housing sales data in two Pennsylvania counties. ACE-protected farmland had a positive impact on nearby property values in one study county but a negative impact in the other. The paper also looks at the impact of forest land use, and discovers that preserved forest land had a positive impact on the nearby property values in both counties. House prices showed strong spatial correlation in both counties, and a spatial error components (SEC) model fit the data better than the OLS model, a spatial-lag model (SLM), or a spatial autoregressive error model (SEM). Geographically weighted regression (GWR) showed that the impact of ACE-protected farmland on nearby property values varied within one of the two study counties, with positive impacts in some parts of the county and negative impacts in other parts. The impact of forest cover on property values also varied, with positive impacts within both counties. A new hybrid GWR-SEC model is introduced that incorporates both spatial correlation in prices and spatial heterogeneity in the model parameters. Statistical goodness of fit measures showed that the GWR-SEC model fit better than the GWR model or a hybrid GWR-SEM model.     

农村集体经营性建设用地价格影响因素的实证分析*——基于江西省余江县179份交易案例

[目的]确定农村集体商服用地、工业用地价格的影响因素,为科学评估农村集体经营性建设用地地价、构建城乡统一建设用地市场提供参考。[方法]利用全国农村土地使用制度改革试点之一的江西省余江县179个交易案例,运用特征价格模型分析农村集体商服用地、工业用地价格的影响因素及各类因素的贡献率。[结果](1)农村集体商服用地价格的主要影响因素依次为乡镇财政收入、人均纯收入、到客运站距离、到国道的距离、教育设施;农村集体工业用地价格的主要影响因素依次为人均纯收入、人均农村居民点面积、到客运站的距离、到国道的距离。(2)社会经济因素、区位交通因素和公共设施因素对集体商服用地价格的贡献度分别为69. 0%、20. 4%和10. 6%;社会经济因素和区位交通因素对集体工业用地价格的贡献度分别为52. 8%和47. 2%。[结论]总体上与国有城镇建设用地价格存在共性规律,但存在部分因素与国有建设用地价格规律存在差异,农村集体经营性建设用地估价不宜完全套用城镇建设用地的思路。     

Quantitative micro-scale flood risk assessment in a section of the Trotuș River,Romania

This paper focuses on the estimation of direct damages caused by three flood scenarios with different return periods in the section Făgetul de Sus – Ghimeş – Palanca Pass of Trotuș River, with the aim of highlighting the need of improved land use plans. The damage for three land use classes (residential building, infrastructure and agriculture) were estimated using the damage curves developed by the European Joint Research Centre (JRC) as well as site specific maximum damage values. The data were processed with the help of the ArcMap 10.2 software and FloodRisk tool from QGIS software. Furthermore, the flood risk was assessed using the damage – probability curves, which associates the damage with the corresponding frequency of occurrence. This method was identified and adapted to the characteristics of the study area in order to develop a methodology of flood risk assessment that is answering the question: does the lack of land use plans increase the vulnerability and the flood damage? The results showed that the greatest damages are registered for the residential building land use class for a flood probability of 0.001. In this case the damages reach up to 60% on the scale range of deterioration factor, the total damage value being 2 million euros. For the same hazard probability the total registered damage value for roads is 7500 euro, for railways is around 12,000 euro, while for agriculture is around 84,000 euro. These results highlight the need of protection measures and land use plans development and implementation. Regarding the protection measures we consider that the egalitarianism would be the concept that should be applied in the study area and also an improved cooperation between government, specialized agencies and local authorities at local level would lead to a more efficient flood risk management process. The proposed methodology can be applied for micro-scale analysis, providing quantitative results regarding the flood damage and flood risk assessment. It includes a detailed vulnerability analysis of the elements-at-risk with the aim of developing a more comprehensive approach of flood risk assessment.     

基于不同住房属性视角的土地供应规模对房价的影响

研究目的：基于住房消费品和投资品的双重属性视角分析住宅用地供应规模对房地产市场的差异化影响。研究 方法：理论分析、固定效应面板回归模型、门槛回归模型。研究结果：（1）上一年住宅用地供应面积增加 1% 可使当年 住房竣工面积显著增加 0.17%,弱于房地产投资资金对住房竣工面积所产生的 0.25% 的提升作用,该结果一定程度上 验证了住宅用地供应与住房供给之间存在生产函数渠道的影响路径;（2）基于实际房价与租金还原房价的偏离程度测 算,发现不同房地产市场投资热度下,住宅用地供应对房价影响存在双重门槛效应,门槛值分别为 2.05 和 2.92;（3）低 投资热度下,上一年住宅用地供应规模的增加可显著降低当年的房价,而高投资热度下则会起到推高房价的作用。研 究结论：住房作为消费品和投资品,存在不同的价格机制和供求规律。当住房市场以投资品属性为主导时,需求曲线 向上的刚性走势违反了一般的商品需求规律,供给曲线的右移将导致均衡价格越来越高。     

基于面板数据的省会城市居住地价的差异及成因研究

研究目的：基于2000 — 2006年面板数据,分析省会城市居住地价的差异、主要影响因子及其影响程度。研究方法：混合OLS估计方法、固定效应模型和随机效应模型。研究结果：（1）中国省会城市居住地价存在明显的时空差异,2005年及以后地价增长明显,且东部地区地价与中、西部地区的差距进一步拉大;（2）将城市间居住地价的影响因素分为全国宏观经济因素、区域整体差异因素和城市个体因素三个层面,并基于引致需求理论,构建更具实效性的城市居住地价影响因子体系;（3）建成区面积、城市人均GDP、国际旅游收入、2004年8月31日之后土地供应方式的重大转变（正向关系）和房地产开发投资（负向关系）对居住地价有显著影响。研究结论：面板数据模型是中国城市间地价问题定量分析的一个有效工具。     

宅基地多功能识别及其空间分异研究 ——基于嘉兴、义乌、泰顺的典型村域分析

研究目的:基于宅基地多功能识别结果,构建多功能量化评价体系,揭示不同地区不同区位宅基地功能分异规律。研究方法:基于可达性划分宅基地类型,构建基于宅基地利用的多功能量化评价体系,引入产业区位熵测算宅基地功能优势度。研究结果:(1)生产功能以嘉兴城中村、义乌城中村及近郊具有突出优势;(2)资产功能呈现城中村近郊远郊边远的分异特征;(3)生态功能呈现出山区平原丘陵盆地和城中村近郊远郊边远的分异规律;(4)心理功能与保障功能未呈现显著性差异。研究结论:不同区位宅基地功能结构具有显著差异,在宅基地退出时应对其进行差别定价与补偿。     

The Effect of Agricultural Zoning on Rural Residential Property Values: An Application to Ontario's Greenbelt

Although previous studies on property value effects of land use policies have focused primarily on agricultural properties and on residential properties in close proximity to preserved areas, this paper examines for the effect on rural residential property values within the preserved area. This effect is examined in the context of Ontario's Greenbelt legislation, which prohibits urban development of rural land within a large area around the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). This preserved area includes not only agricultural properties but also a substantial amount of rural residential properties due to proximity to the GTA. With the amenity value that rural residential properties derive from the surrounding rural landscape, the imposed development restrictions that permanently preserve this open space are anticipated to increase the values of these properties. This expectation is confirmed by the results of a hedonic approach, which indicate a positive effect on the values of rural residential properties within the Greenbelt's boundary. This effect is found to be greater for properties with more surrounding open space and those that are relatively closer to the GTA. These results also provide an estimate of the property value impact of converting all surrounding developable open space to permanently preserved open space.     

Property rights and housing prices: An empirical study of small property rights housing in Shenzhen,China

Small Property Rights Housing (SPRH) is an important part of informal housing in China. SPRH is defined as housing developed with collective land ownership that is then sold to outside homebuyers such as non-indigenous villagers. This housing practice is legally forbidden and comes without formal titles. SPRH is popular in big Chinese cities where formal housing prices are constantly rising and increasingly unaffordable for many urban residents. However, research on SPRH is rare. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the effects (or the lack thereof) of de-jure property rights on housing prices by using the empirical case of Shenzhen where SPRH and FPRH estates constitute the main sources of urban housing for its residents. We collected both SPRH and formal Full Property Right Housing (FPRH) data in the Shenzhen housing market and adopted the Boundary Fixed Effect method and matching strategy to mitigate the bias caused by unobservable location and neighborhood factors. This empirical study shows that the lack of de-jure property rights has negative and significant effects on housing prices. The average housing price for SPRH apartments is, ceteris paribus, 52.82% lower than for formal FPRH apartments. Also, the premium of property rights varies across two administrative regions with different locations and economic environments, and the premium decreases as the age of the building increases.     

Local regulatory responses during a regional housing shortage: An analysis of rezonings in Silicon Valley

Scholars have partially blamed high housing prices in many metropolitan areas on residential density restrictions. Santa Clara County is the geographic heart of California’s Silicon Valley and is one of the most expensive counties in the U.S. for renters and homebuyers. This research answers two questions about how municipalities change their zoning. First, how common are rezonings? Second, what are the determinants of density-increasing “upzonings” and density-decreasing “downzonings”? This is the first study to analyze rezonings across neighboring municipalities and expands our limited explanations of rezonings. The three largest cities in Santa Clara County are analyzed using a parcel dataset with zoning at two time periods: 2006–2016 for San José and Sunnyvale, and 2012–2016 for the city of Santa Clara. Multinomial logistic regression models are used to compare the relative risk of a parcel being upzoned or downzoned compared with no zoning change. Little land was upzoned in the three cities. San José increased allowable residential densities on 0.6% of its parcel land area on average per year, while Santa Clara averaged 0.3% and Sunnyvale averaged 0.1% per year. Downzoning was less common and tended to involve small reductions in allowable density. San José decreased allowable residential densities on 0.5% of its land area per year, and Santa Clara and Sunnyvale engaged in almost no downzoning. The main findings are: (1) regulatory changes were more likely in San José, the central city, than in the neighboring smaller municipalities; (2) there was little upzoning or downzoning, regardless of a neighborhood’s homeownership rate; and (3) rezonings tended to be small-scale and initiated by property owners rather than through large-scale municipal actions.     

A fine-scale spatial analytics of the assessment and mapping of buildings and population at different risk levels of urban flood

Nowadays, urban flooding is becoming a severe issue in most of the developing and developed countries. The growth of the urbanization rate is also increasing, and the United Nations (UN) projected that 68 % of the world’s population would live in urban areas by 2050. People tend to migrate from rural to urban areas, which expose them more vulnerable to urban floods. The flood-related damages and deaths are increasing every year globally. Using the Birmingham city, Alabama (AL), USA as the study area, the objective of this research is to assess potential damage risks due to flood exposure of buildings and population in an urban area. Different social and environmental factors influence urban floods in an urban area. This paper considered elevation, slope, flow accumulation, land-use, soil types, and distance from the river as significant influential factors to urban flooding. The flood risk model hence can be developed by using an integrated GIS and cartrographic approach, in which we assessed and assigned weights to these factors and formed a GIS risk assessment model, which shows the level of flood risks in the floodplain areas of Birmingham and quantifies and maps both commercial buildings, home buildings, and populations’ exposed to flooding risks. This study found that the Valley Creek area is the highest flood risk zone in Birmingham, and about 48.85 percent of Valley Creek’s floodplain area will face very high flood risk. The findings further reveal that total number of 5602 people are living in high and very high flood risk zones in Birmingham that approximates 44.04 % of the total population in this floodplain area. The physical vulnerability is also assessed, and findings suggest that the Valley Creek zone has the highest percentage of residential (i.e., 56.14 %) and commercial (i.e., 75.34 %) buildings located in very high flood risk areas. Our study providing a GIS risk assessment approach to locating and mapping the areas, buildings, and populations from the most to the least at risks with a fine spatical scale for urban flood risk management. The numbers of vulnerable buildings and populations within each risk category are quantified and their distributions are mapped. Therefore, revealing population’s and buildings’ risks and their geographic information, this flood risk assessment can help local governments and communities prepare better to take actions against future urban flood events in Birmingham, and this integrated GIS and cartographic analysis for fine flooding assessments can be applied to other urban areas for flood mitigation and risk management.     

2021年土地科学研究重点进展评述及2022年展望 ——土地经济分报告

研究目的：梳理并比较2021年国内外土地经济领域的研究进展和研究重点,展望未来研究方向。研究方法：文献分析法。研究结果：2021年,国内研究集中于城市土地利用效率、城市土地供给、农地流转机制建设、土地价格的空间分布、土地要素市场化、产权安全效应、产权制度创新、土地征收补偿以及宅基地制度改革等问题;国外研究重点关注城市土地价格的影响因素、土地市场与农业发展、土地市场参与主体与土地利用效率、产权安全与农业生产效率、土地制度改革的减贫效应等。研究结论：土地经济研究的深度和广度得到了拓展,土地经济研究需要进一步结合中国国情,着力探索理论创新,为形成有中国特色的土地经济理论、更好地为新时代土地制度改革服务而努力。2022年《中国土地科学》将重点关注土地经济基础理论探索、土地市场波动的理论与实证研究、土地要素市场化机制设计、土地制度改革配套政策、确权登记颁证进展与绩效评估、重要改革试点的跟踪与评价等。     

The impact of flood dynamics on property values

There is evidence that environmental amenities and dis-amenities may be nonlinearly related to property valuation. This would bring inconsistency in estimating environmental variables of the hedonic price model. To explore the linearity of the relationship this study analyses spatial and temporal variation impacts of the 2011 Brisbane flood on property markets using semi-parametric estimation. The results show that most environmental variables impacts on property values nonlinearly, and in particularly distance to the river, indicating that the amenity value of being close to a river outweighs the flood risks. The estimation of the combined impact of elapsed time and neighbourhood income indicates that the flood risk impact on property markets disappears over time.     

Farmland prices and land-use changes in periurban protected natural areas

This paper provides empirical and conceptual insights in analysing the factors that determine the prices of farmland within Protected Natural Areas that are close to densely populated urban areas, the changes in land use experiences as well as the additional control policies needed to curb this unsustainable trend.The Urdaibai Biosphere Reserve nearby the metropolitan area of Bilbao (Basque Country, Spain) is the case study considered and its bordering non-protected rural area is used as a reference for comparison. A spatial hedonic farmland price model is estimated and the willingness of land purchasers to pay for different farmland characteristics quantified both inside and outside the Urdaibai Biosphere Reserve. The main results are that: (1) residential development is taking place in all categories of farmland, (2) aside from neighbouring prices, farmland prices depend on different factors depending on whether the marketed plots stand inside or outside the Protected Natural Area, (3) the “reserve effect” on land prices is less powerful than the “proximity to the metropolitan area (and motorway) effect” observed from villages of the non-protected area located in the 3rd crown of Bilbao, (4) the reasons for farmers non-compliance with policy regulations is the necessary knowledge base for the farmland conservation policy design and (5) in the light of the results, three development-control policy instruments such as Payments for Ecosystem Services, Tradable Planning Permits and development-taxes are discussed considering the factors that could improve compliance.     

Who responds more to environmental amenities and dis-amenities?

It is hypothesised that different property sub-markets react to flood risk information, floods and environmental factors differently. To test this hypothesis this research uses spatial quantile regression and quasi-experimental techniques to examine property sub-market behaviour in response to availability of flood risk information and actual flood. This new contribution to the literature is based on the use of the mapping of flood risk areas in 2009 and the 2011 flooding of Brisbane, Australia, as a case study. The results show that the impact of flood risk and actual flood on property markets varies between different sub-markets. They therefore confirm the existence of property sub-markets based on property and environmental characteristics and suggest the need for differentiate mitigation policies.     

The Effects of Housing Prices, Wages, and Commuting Time on Joint Residential and Job Location Choices

An empirical model of joint decisions of where to live and where to work demonstrates that individuals make residential and job location choices by trading off wages, housing prices, and commuting costs. Wages are higher in metropolitan markets, but housing prices are also higher in urban areas. Consumers can live in lower priced nonmetropolitan houses and still earn urban wages, but they incur commuting costs that increase with distance from the city. Improvements in transportation that lower commuting time will increase nonmetropolitan populations and will increase the number of nonmetropolitan commuters to metropolitan markets. Equal wage growth across labor markets causes a shift in relative population from rural to urban markets, while an equiproportional increase in housing prices causes a population shift toward rural areas.     

Valuing public and private urban tree canopy cover

In this paper, we estimate the effect of tree canopy cover on sales price of urban residential properties in Perth, Western Australia. Using a data set of 5606 single family homes sold in 2009 and a spatial hedonic model with three spatial effects – spatial‐temporal lag on dependent variable, spatial error, and spatially lagged independent variables – we estimated the location‐specific effect of tree canopy cover. Tree canopy cover increases the property value when located on adjacent public space, but decreases the value when it is on own property and on the adjacent property within 20 m of property boundary. The results are suggestive that council urban tree planting programs provide significant private benefits to homeowners.