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1.
面对金融危机,关联储不仅非常规地使用传统货币政策工具,而且还采取大量激进的非常规措施,通过购买各种证券向市场注入流动性以及运用信息沟通引导市场预期降低长期借贷成本的方式缓解金融市场紧缩局面。非常规货币政策是应对非常时期的非常措施,随着经济的复苏,各国经济刺激政策如何寻找安全退出路径是这一时期全球央行的主要任务。  相似文献   

2.
    
The Great Recession was not a failure of free markets. Rather it was a classic example of the undesirable unintended consequences of government intervention, both through expansionary monetary policy and misguided attempts to bolster the housing market in the USA. Getting government out of banking is the best way to end the disastrous boom and bust cycles that have characterised the last century and a half.  相似文献   

3.
REAL BUSINESS CYCLE MODELS OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION: A CRITICAL SURVEY   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1  
Abstract.  Recent years have witnessed a revival of interest in the Great Depression of the 1930s. Among the differing new interpretations, the real business cycle (RBC) approach is particularly significant. It represents an outstanding methodological innovation in trying to cast the Great Depression within an 'equilibrium' framework. This paper critically reviews the RBC interpretation of the Great Depression, clarifying its theoretical and methodological foundations, and paving the way for future assessments of its validity.  相似文献   

4.
    
We discuss the origins of the Money Study Group in 1969 and its subsequent journey via the Money Macro Finance Study Group to become the Money Macro and Finance Society. It has provided a forum for debates on macroeconomics and monetary policy and has expanded to incorporate other aspects of finance. Its activities have successfully brought together academics, policy makers and city practitioners.  相似文献   

5.
    
Following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, interbank borrowing and lending dropped, whereas reserve holdings of depository institutions skyrocketed, as the Fed injected liquidity into the U.S. banking sector. This paper introduces bank liquidity risk and limited market participation into a real business cycle model with ex ante identical financial intermediaries and shows, in an analytically tractable way, how interbank trade and excess reserves emerge in general equilibrium. Investigating the role of the federal funds market and unconventional monetary policy for the propagation of aggregate real and financial shocks, I find that federal funds market participation is irrelevant in response to standard supply and demand shocks, whereas it matters for “uncertainty shocks”, i.e. mean-preserving spreads in the cross-section of liquidity risk. Liquidity injections by the central bank can absorb the effects of financial shocks on the real economy, although excess reserves might increase and federal funds might be crowded out, as a side effect.  相似文献   

6.
    
Several recent papers have studied the impact of macroeconomic shocks on the financial policies of firms. However, they only consider the case where these macroeconomic shocks affect the profitability of firms but not the financial markets conditions. We study the polar case where the profitability of firms is stationary, but interest rates and issuance costs are governed by an exogenous Markov chain. We characterize the optimal dividend policy and show that these two macroeconomic factors have opposing effects: all things being equal, firms distribute more dividends when interest rates are high and less when issuing costs are high.  相似文献   

7.
    
This paper studies optimal monetary policy in the presence of ‘uncertainty’, time-variation in cross-sectional dispersion of firms׳ productive performance. Using a model with financial market imperfections, the results suggest that (i) optimal policy is to dampen the strength of financial amplification by responding to uncertainty (at the expense of creating mild degree of fluctuations in inflation). (ii) Higher uncertainty makes the welfare-maximizing planner more willing to relax financial constraints. (iii) Credit spreads are a good proxy for uncertainty. Hence, a non-negligible response to credit spreads – together with a strong anti-inflationary policy stance – achieves the highest aggregate welfare possible.  相似文献   

8.
货币政策对资本市场的影响是宏观经济领域研究的课题之一。本文对货币政策的溢出效应进行理论分析,通过构建VAR模型,以2008—2015年货币政策中存款准备金变化的数据为样本,实证分析中国货币政策变化与资本市场相互关系的影响。实证研究发现,货币供应量的变动对股市影响比较大,货币政策的制定和实施对资本市场的影响比较明显。货币政策的制定必须充分考虑到对资本市场的影响,并积极完善利率市场化,推进资本市场向纵深发展。  相似文献   

9.
    
Austrian Business Cycle Theory can shed light on the ways in which the current Chinese economic boom is unsustainable. On the one hand, government interventions, such as land monopolies, have raised costs for real estate developers. By limiting the availability of investment instruments and access to external markets, government interventions have created a strong demand for housing as a hedging tool. On the other hand, a loose monetary policy and artificially low interest rates have made the property market tempting for developers. Over‐construction and over‐consumption in the housing sector epitomise the capital structure analysis that Austrian economists regard as the core of their business cycle theory.  相似文献   

10.
    
In the 2010 London School of Economics and Political Science Hayek Memorial Lecture, the author argues that flaws in the design of the monetary and financial system were responsible for the global financial crisis and the subsequent recession. The crash reflected the unsustainable nature of the bubble induced by artificial credit expansion created by fractional‐reserve banking under the direction of central banks. Such boom–bust cycles will continue until radical reforms are implemented, including a 100% reserve requirement for demand deposits.  相似文献   

11.
    
Innovation policy is designed to produce social benefits by solving a market failure problem associated with private investment in new knowledge. Yet the social costs of these policy interventions are routinely ignored. We use the Djankov et al. (2003) institutional possibility frontier model to analyse the trade‐offs between the social costs of disorder and those of dictatorship that particular innovation policies impose. We show how different innovation policies impose different types of social costs. We conclude that the case for public support for innovation policies is often both distorted and overstated because of failure to account for social costs.  相似文献   

12.
伴随着中国证券市场的长足发展 ,股市的“财富效应”也日益显著。本文从分析股市“财富效应”及“财富负效应”影响货币政策的机制入手 ,进而探讨了其对我国现行货币政策的冲击 ,并相应提出了几点政策建议。  相似文献   

13.
    
This paper examines the stock market integration between frontier and leading markets, focusing on the periods of pre and post global financial crisis. Using time-series analysis, the results mostly support leading markets can Granger-cause frontier markets. Frontier markets in different regions have distinct relationships with leading markets. Population growth, industry value, interest rate, tax rate, and tariff of the frontier markets significantly influence the integration between both markets. Energy, gross national income, stock traded value, and high-technology exports of leading markets saliently influence the integration. Finally, the global financial crisis impacts the relationship between the frontier and leading markets and changes the determinants of stock market integration.  相似文献   

14.
本文认为,在完全资本市场假定下,公司面临理想化的环境,财务决策相对简单,其直接结果包括股利政策无关、应全部以负债融资、投资政策考虑未来现金净流量现值。这些结果之所以与财务实务有较大误差,很大程度上是由于所基于的完全市场体系与现实市场环境不符。在加入交易成本、代理成本、信息成本等市场不完全因素后,公司财务决策明显复杂化,且财务决策在不同市场间、不同公司间不再具有普适性。  相似文献   

15.
    
The study explores the structural breaks in the correlations between nine Asian stock markets and the US stock market. This study employs the EGARCH-DCC model to obtain the daily correlations between Asian and the US stock markets, and use the method of Carrion-i-Silvestre (2005) to detect the structural breaks. The empirical results indicate there are multiple breaks in the correlations and imply that both 2001 Dot-com bubble and 2008 financial crisis have impacts on the correlations between Asian and the US markets. These results bring the crucial insights for the portfolio strategy of international investors.  相似文献   

16.
    
It is now more than ten years since the dismantling of the USSR began, not only in terms of the reasserted independence of the member states, but also in terms of the end of the centralised Soviet command economy. The experiences of a myriad of investors, public and private, who have lost funds they so hopefully made available to emerging enterprises in the Eastern European states, particularly in Russia, have clearly demonstrated to Western observers the difficulties associated with making a transition from a command to a market economy. And yet the transformation in different states has had different degrees of success. For example, in Estonia, the strategies to move from a command to a market economy, adopted by the political leadership throughout the 1990s, have been relatively successful. In this article, the policies that led to this success are identified. It is believed that tentative generalisations from the experiences of Estonia may be helpful in determining the necessary conditions for successful change from a command to a market economy in other countries. To the extent that such transitions contribute to real economic growth, empirical evidence about the conditions necessary for their realisation provides general understanding of the forces underlying economic development. Moreover, it may well be that these generalisations can be used by private and public organisations to obtain a first indication of the probabilities of success of investments that they are contemplating making in a transitional economy, whether measured by return on capital, and/or contribution to general welfare.  相似文献   

17.
次贷危机爆发以后,各国纷纷实行非传统的货币政策来刺激经济。自2009年下半年以来,随着一些国家的经济状况开始恢复,人们开始担心通货膨胀的出现,因此研究非传统货币政策何时退出就成为当前各国宏观经济保持稳定的一个重要任务。发达国家实行非传统货币政策的原因在于传统的货币政策传导机制,即从市场基准利率向短期利率和长期利率的传导受阻。因此非传统货币政策实施的目的在于降低短期利率预期和风险溢价,同时提高通胀预期,降低长期实际利率,最终起到刺激实体经济的作用。文章以美国为例,考察了美国金融指标、通胀指标和宏观经济指标,得出结论:传统的货币政策传导机制的恢复还未得到充分的确认。另外,由于欧洲债务危机的出现给全球经济复苏蒙上阴影,因此全面退出非传统货币政策尚不具备条件。但是在全球化时代,寻求大国之间退出策略的合作和协调是十分必要的。  相似文献   

18.
近年来,房地产价格持续快速增长,影响房价的因素有很多,文章以辽宁省为例,建立贷款利率、货币供应量、城镇居民可支配收入和房屋销售价格的VAR模型,进行实证研究。利用EVIEWS7.0软件对模型进行脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析,得出贷款利率、货币供应量和居民可支配收入均对房价产生正向影响,并且居民可支配收入的贡献度最强,五年以上贷款利率贡献度最弱。  相似文献   

19.
随着我国金融宏观调控从直接调控为主转向间接调控为主,公开市场操作越来越成为主要的间接调控手段。相比政策性金融债券和中央银行票据,国债因其所具有的优势决定了其更加适合作为我国公开市场操作的主要工具。本文通过中美国债比较,认为通过优化国债投资方向和国债期限结构等一系列政策手段,解决目前我国国债在发行规模、期限结构、投资者资产结构和市场结构方面存在的问题,可使得以国债作为主要工具更加具有可行性。  相似文献   

20.
邓韬 《基建优化》2007,28(3):71-74
根据宏观经济学中最基本IS-LM模型建立了房地产市场的均衡产出和投资模型,并找出利率影响货币政策和均衡投资额的关键因子.在此基础上结合模型中的关键影响因子综合分析造成我国近年来利率对于房地产投资规模调控不力局面的原因.最后结合美国的相关经验,提出对我国改进利率调控机制的建议.  相似文献   

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