Retirement Expectations and Satisfaction with Retirement Provisions

This paper investigates the relationship between subjective expectations regarding the replacement rate of income at retirement and several measures of pension satisfaction. We use panel data on Dutch employees, analyzed with fixed effects models, allowing for correlation between unobserved heterogeneity in satisfaction and optimism or pessimism in expectations. The level of the expected replacement rate is found to be positively related to satisfaction: respondents who revise their expectations of the level of their replacement rate upwards tend to become more satisfied with their pension provisions, in particular with the level of the expected benefits. We do not find robust evidence for a relationship between uncertainty and pension satisfaction.     

开发养老与社保养老并行构想

本文提出树立开发养老的新观念,主张当前我国养老事业应由传统的单一社保养老机制向开发养老与社保养老的并行机制转换。     

Women and Retirement Pensions: A Research Review

Abstract

The links between women's caring work and access to economic resources are particularly critical in the context of widespread public policy debates about retirement and pensions, many of which neglect care as a key issue for analysis. However, among feminist economists it is widely recognized that women's patterns of care provision have adverse implications for their access to economic resources in later life. The feminist economics literature examines many of the interactions between women's caring roles and their access to resources, particularly women's capacity to access economic resources through publicly mandated or regulated pension schemes. This article reviews research that places women's patterns of work and care at the center of analyses of retirement pension policy in an effort to provide a summary of research on gender and pensions policy and to contrast the extent to which differing institutional and policy frameworks accommodate women's caring roles.     

Retirement and health behaviour

This article investigates whether and to what extent retirement changes health behaviour. For identification we use an instrumental variable approach that exploits exogenous variations in the early and normal retirement ages within and across 10 European countries. Our results reveal that among those who abstained from alcohol and vigorous or moderate exercise at baseline, retirement increased those activities. Non-smokers did not increase smoking upon retirement. Retirement led to less smoking for those who smoked before retiring. It also brought about an increase in vigorous exercise for those who had the behaviour at baseline. These results further vary by a person’s job type, but less so with respect to gender or geographic region. Overall, our findings provide new empirical evidence on the causal link between retirement and health behaviours and how such link relates to four sources of individual heterogeneity: gender, European geographic region, job type and baseline health behaviour.     

Efficient Timing of Retirement

This study introduces a retirement decision into the classic Merton model. A familiar result is that you should retire if and when the marginal utility of another year's wages is equal to the disutility of work. A new result is that at the point of retirement your exposure to risky assets should not jump. Under power utility and constant time preference, the retirement timing problem has a closed form solution; the nine inputs to the formula in question give rise to nine comparative-static results on retirement timing. Further specialization of preferences, to log consumption utility and zero time preference, reduces the required number of inputs to four. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E21, G11, J26.     

Lifetime consumption and investment: Retirement and constrained borrowing

Retirement flexibility and inability to borrow against future labor income can significantly affect optimal consumption and investment. With voluntary retirement, there exists an optimal wealth-to-wage ratio threshold for retirement and human capital correlates negatively with the stock market even when wages have zero or slightly positive market risk exposure. Consequently, investors optimally invest more in the stock market than without retirement flexibility. Both consumption and portfolio choice jump at the endogenous retirement date. The inability to borrow limits hedging and reduces the value of labor income, the wealth-to-wage ratio threshold for retirement, and the stock investment.     

Early Retirement and Economic Incentives

In Norway, early retirement programmes have gradually reduced the retirement age from 67 to 62 for a majority of the labour force. Based on micro data for 1990 and 1992, we estimate a competing-risk model with three states: full retirement, partial retirement/part-time work and full-time work. We then use the estimated model in simulations to study how financial incentives can be strengthened to extend working life. Financial incentives, educational background and industry affiliation are found to influence retirement behaviour. For low and medium incomes, the tax system shifts the incentives heavily towards early retirement and, in particular, towards partial retirement combined with part-time work.     

Retirement saving and development traps

This paper establishes the existence of multiple equilibria that help explain why some countries remain poor and diverge from the economic progress experienced by rich countries. Endogenous growth models cannot explain the negative correlation between work-lives and long-run growth rates. Extending growth models to explain this negative correlation leads to multiple equilibria; one with long work-lives and low rates of growth and another with short work-lives and high rates of growth.     

Planning Retirement Income in Australia: Routes through the Maze

Individual retirees face a daunting task when they consider how best to invest their accumulated superannuation account and non-superannuation savings. This article highlights the fact that there is rarely an obvious decision in this choice and that the optimal decision depends on a number of factors. These factors include the valuation criterion adopted, the level of benefits, the individual's income level, the means-tests, the tax rates on income and superannuation benefits and the person's life expectancy. The optimal behaviour at retirement is significantly affected by the individual characteristics of relative lifetime earnings and post-retirement rates of mortality.     

Why Women Have Lower Retirement Savings: The Australian Case

This study provides empirical evidence of the gender gap in retirement savings trajectories using a large longitudinal Australian database. The persistent trend of retirement income policy over recent decades has been to place responsibility for retirement savings accumulation with the individual employee. These plans are fundamentally linked to employment conditions and individual choices, which shape retirement savings trajectories and outcomes. Australia has a mature compulsory system and thus provides insight for countries embarking on similar paths. This study shows that the gender gap in retirement savings is observable from early on in an individual’s paid working life and persists over time, providing evidence that women are disadvantaged early in their careers, with few signs of improvement. Men, in contrast, are overrepresented in the upper quartile of growth in retirement savings. This study provides important empirical evidence for policymakers concerned with gender differences in retirement outcomes.     

Optimal Retirement with Increasing Longevity

We develop an optimizing life‐cycle model of retirement with perfect capital markets. We show that longer healthy life expectancy usually leads to later retirement, but with an elasticity less than unity. We calibrate our model using data from the US and find that, over the last century, the effect of rising incomes, which promote early retirement, has dominated the effect of rising lifespans. Our model predicts continuing declines in the optimal retirement age, despite rising life expectancy, provided the rate of real wage growth remains as high as in the last century.