Current accounts and oil price fluctuations in oil-exporting countries: The role of financial development

Oil-exporting countries usually experience large current account improvements following a sharp increase in oil prices. In this paper, we investigate this oil price-current account relationship on a sample of 27 oil-exporting economies. Relying upon the estimation of panel smooth transition regression models over the 1980–2010 period, we provide evidence that refines the traditional interpretation of oil price effects on current accounts. While current accounts are positively affected by oil price variations, this effect is nonlinear and depends critically on the degree of financial development of oil-exporting economies. More specifically, oil price variations exert a stronger impact on the current account position for less financially developed countries, this influence diminishing with financial deepness.     

The evolution of trade credit: new evidence from developed versus developing countries

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - Using a large sample of listed firms from 72 countries over the period 1990–2019, we document a marked decrease in trade credit that is more...     

Asymmetric price rigidity and the responsiveness of customers to price changes: The case of deposit interest rates

This article examines differences in the level and type of price rigidity as it applies to different types of deposits offered by commercial banks. Numerous characteristics of the data set employed make it ideally suited for such an investigation. Three basic findings are presented. First, the degree of price rigidity observed for a product varies systematically with the quantity response to a price change likely to be exhibited by customers,with greater rigidity associated with less customer responsiveness. Second, price rigidity is asymmetric in the sense that greater rigidity is observed for upward movements in deposit rates than for downward changes. Finally, this observed asymmetry appears to be greater for cases in which customers are likely to exhibit less of a quantity response to a change in deposit rates.     

The militarization of space: From passive support to active weapons systems

Space has become an essential element of the strategic balance. Large investments in passive satellites and a growing dependence on them have created potential new strategic problems and arms control challenges. there is also a resurgence of interest in ‘active’ weapon systems based on developments in laser and particle beam technology. This paper reviews the evolution of military space programmes, and explores the present and future challenges and dilemmas.     

The impacts of index rebalancing and their implications: Some new evidence from Japan

This study investigates the Nikkei 225 rebalancing. Unlike those for changes in the S&P 500, the price effects are permanent for both additions and deletions despite significant price reversals around both the announcement and effective days. The permanent price effects are shown to be consistent with the imperfect substitute hypothesis. Furthermore, the ‘arbitrage game’, as documented for the S&P additions, is played with both the Nikkei 225 additions and deletions. Lastly, consistent with its higher popularity, the Nikkei 225 changes induce more pronounced price and volume effects, more arbitrage trading, but less long-term volume effects than the Nikkei 500 reshuffles.     

The transfer of research,development and design to developing countries: Analysis and proposals

This article examines the problems associated with the incorporation of R,D&D facilities in schemes to transfer manufacturing technology to developing countries. It contrasts two models which can be used for evaluating the modalities, conditions and impact of such transfers.     

人口老龄化对住院费用增长的贡献——基于CFPS数据的分析

在中国,许多人认为,人口老龄化是医疗费用增长的主要驱动力,极度担忧人口老龄化带来医疗费用的快速膨胀。本文首先利用CFPS 2010年和2012年的调查数据,计算了2009-2011年间中国(老年)人口年龄结构变动和(老年)人口数量变动对住院总费用增长的贡献。接下来,利用2009年和2011年全国人口抽样调查数据进行了校正。结果发现,(老年)人口年龄结构变动不是住院医疗费用增长的主要原因,(老年)人口数量剧烈变动可能对住院医疗费用增长产生较大的影响。但是,就中国现实而言,不论是人口老龄化还是老年人口数量变动,对中国住院费用增长的贡献均极其有限。这既是因为人口老龄化本身的速度很慢,老年人相对于非老年人的平均住院费用较低,并且老年人平均住院费用随年龄升高而下降,也是因为中国年龄别平均住院费用增长过快。为此,未来应进一步提高老年人医疗保障水平,加强慢性病预防和康复体系建设,关注医疗保险支付方式改革,遏制医疗技术快速发展和医师诱导需求现象,以控制医疗费用快速上涨。     

Bank lending to targets of active takeover attempts: The simultaneous choice of loan maturity,pricing, and security

I investigate bank loans to takeover targets considering the simultaneous decision of pricing, maturity, collateral, and covenants applying Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). Results are largely in line with the Agency Theory of Covenants (ATC) as pricing for new bank debt is lower given greater collateral and covenant protection, consistent with existing literature on public debt. However, poor performing targets demonstrate a positive relationship between pricing and covenants while bank loans to high performers are consistent with ATC predictions. Finally, loan terms tied to ex post observations of merger outcomes suggest banks possess some knowledge of merger outcomes in advance.     

The price of fear: Estimating the financial cost of bullying and harassment to the NHS in England

Using a spectrum of measures, this paper estimates some of the financial costs of bullying and harassment to the NHS in England. By means of specific impacts resulting from bullying and harassment to staff health, sickness absence costs to the employer, employee turnover, diminished productivity, sickness presenteeism, compensation, litigation and industrial relations costs, we conservatively estimate bullying and harassment to cost the taxpayer £2.281 billion per annum.     

The distributional impact of access to finance on poverty: evidence from selected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper uses pooled household-level data from thirteen Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries conducted between 2014 and 2018 to examine the impact of access to finance on household wealth. The few studies that investigated this relationship in the past apply a linear estimation, and thus inadvertently assume a uniformly distributed effect across all levels of poverty. This study examines the heterogeneous impact of access to finance along the entire wealth distribution line using a Re-centered Influence Function (RIF) regression model. We adopt a unique approach to this research problem by constructing an asset-based wealth-index for each country, and use it as a proxy for poverty, and thus get around the problem of non-reported and bracket income. Further, to eliminate potential endogeneity, an instrumental variable quantile approach is implemented. Results indicate that the unconditional effect of access to finance on poverty is non-homogenous. The effect is higher at higher quantiles of wealth and very low at the bottom of the wealth index, suggesting that the extension of formal financial services disproportionately benefits wealthier households more than the very-poor categories.     

The complexity of price discovery in an efficient market: the stock market reaction to the Challenger crash

We provide evidence on the speed and accuracy of price discovery by studying stock returns and trading volume surrounding the crash of the space shuttle Challenger. While the event was widely observed, it took several months for an esteemed panel to determine which of the mechanical components failed during the launch. By contrast, in the period immediately following the crash, securities trading in the four main shuttle contractors seemingly singled out the firm that manufactured the faulty component. We show that price discovery occurred without large trading profits and that much of the price discovery occurred during a trading halt of the firm responsible for the faulty component. Finally, although we document what are arguably quick and accurate movements of the market, we are unable to detect the actual manner in which particular informed traders induced price discovery.     

Migrating customers to new distribution channels: The role of communication

Banks throughout the world are making substantial investments in technology to reduce the cost of distributing their products and services to customers. It is, however, becoming increasingly clear that the desired reduction in operating expenses is not being achieved. This paper highlights the need for banks to recognise that effective communication is critical for persuading consumers to adopt the new technology. It then presents an approach for selecting a cost-effective method for migrating customers to a new service technology. An empirical study at a large US bank that utilised the proposed approach and benefited from the systematic investigation of this issue is then described. Implications for financial service providers are provided.     

The choice between private and public capital markets: The importance of disclosure standards and auditor discipline to countries divesting state-owned enterprises

For a sample of 1866 privatizations from 37 countries, we estimate the impact of disclosure standards and legal institutions that discipline auditors on the method chosen to divest state-owned enterprises. The agency conflict between minority and controlling shareholders can impede a government from privatizing by selling its stake to diffuse investors in the public capital market with a share-issue privatization (SIP) that typically generates important spillover economic benefits, rather than an asset sale to a small group of buyers. However, prior research implies that accounting transparency plays a natural role in preventing controlling shareholders from siphoning corporate resources by helping minority investors identify any diversionary practices. After controlling for firm-level and other country-level characteristics, we find that SIPs become more likely when countries mandate strict disclosure standards, although this result is sensitive to model specification. In comparison, we provide strong, robust evidence that SIPs are more likely in jurisdictions that relax the burden of proof in civil lawsuits and criminal prosecutions against auditors, leading to more credible financial statements. From a policy perspective, our cross-country research suggests that investors value reforms that subject auditors to more severe private and public enforcement over several other legal determinants, including enhancing disclosure standards.     

From space to time : The music of old earth and new time

With this article I.F. Clarke resumes his series on the long advance towards modern ways of looking at the future. Two hundred years ago, he says, the world still managed well enough with the old short-scale measure of time. According to that system the beginning of human life dated from the creation of Adam and Eve on the afternoon of Friday, 28 October 4004 BC. Then came the first palaeontologists who pushed back the origins of organic life by millions of years. Their discoveries changed the perceived role of Homo sapiens in earth history as decisively as the Renaissance astronomers transformed all thinking about the place of our planet in the universe. The dominant evolutionary ideas of the 19th century joined with the evident technological advances to confirm the idea of progress as the most favoured doctrine of the age. It is still with us.     

The future of India's obsolete dams: Time to review their safety and structural integrity

India has built over 5000 large dams till date to boost electric power and to enhance irrigated agriculture. In spite of this big dam building venture, India lacks expertise in decommissioning old dams. As a matter of fact, India has more than 500 large dams that were built 50 years ago, and 100 of them have passed over a century. This article analyses the existing facts on India's outdated dams, their safety matters and recommends future strategies to safeguard the large dams from potential future threats.     

The market for new issues of municipal bonds: The roles of transparency and limited access to retail investors

I examine how transparency and interdealer trading affects prices investors pay in municipal bond offerings. Real-time trade reporting for municipal bonds started January 31, 2005. The dispersion of purchase prices fell sharply at that time. There was little impact on average markups for most trades, but they increased for purchases of more than $100,000. Bonds often pass through a series of dealers before being placed with a buy-and-hold investor. As the interdealer trades progress, trade sizes decline and trade prices rise. Markups on investor purchases increase with the amount of interdealer trading before the trade.     

The reaction of asset prices to macroeconomic announcements in new EU markets: Evidence from intraday data

We estimate the impact of macroeconomic news on composite stock returns in three emerging European Union financial markets (the Budapest BUX, Prague PX-50, and Warsaw WIG-20), using intraday data and macroeconomic announcements. Our contribution is twofold. We employ a larger set of macroeconomic data releases than used in previous studies and also use intraday data, an excess impact approach, and foreign news to provide more reliable inferences. Composite stock returns are computed based on 5-min intervals (ticks) and macroeconomic news are measured based on the deviations of the actual announcement values from their expectations. Overall, we find that all three new EU stock markets are subject to significant spillovers directly via the composite index returns from the EU, the U.S. and neighboring markets; Budapest exhibits the strongest spillover effect, followed by Warsaw and Prague. The Czech and Hungarian markets are also subject to spillovers indirectly through the transmission of macroeconomic news. The impact of EU-wide announcements is evidenced more in the case of Hungary, while the Czech market is more impacted by U.S. news. The Polish market is marginally affected by EU news. In addition, after decomposing pooled announcements, we show that the impact of multiple announcements is stronger than that of single news. Our results suggest that the impact of foreign macroeconomic announcements goes beyond the impact of the foreign stock markets on Central and Eastern European indices. We also discuss the implications of the findings for financial stability in the three emerging European markets.