Das neue System für Regel- und Ausgleichsenergie Gas in Deutschland — Eine Untersuchung der Anreizwirkungen

With its decision on the determination of balancing services (GABi Gas), the Bundesnetzagentur has set up a new regime for system and balancing energy valid from October 2008. Aims are a simplification of balancing rules for traders, a more efficient use of existing flexibility instruments by network operators, and the creation of a functioning market for system and balancing energy. After half a year, the effects on traders and network operators can be analyzed. This study identifies positive and negative incentive effects of the new rules and proposes possible amendments. Among these are: abolishing the differentiation between internal and external system energy, creating incentives for efficient use of the networks’ buffering capacity, standardizing the rules for procurement of system energy, and introducing a pure hourly balancing system. Regulation creates a framework for functioning markets. Yet, competition cannot be enforced. Therefore, sensibility for the incentive effects of regulatory frameworks is needed.     

Kurzfristige Kehrtwende bei der Beschaffung neu zu errichtender Anlagen für die Netzreserve in Deutschland

Shortly before the decision of the Electricity Market Law on June 22, 2016 took place, the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) changed its mind with respect to the procurement of new power plants for the German grid reserve. Other than originally planned, this is no longer organized via a competitive bidding process. Instead, the responsibility for the procurement will be transferred to the transmission system operators, which therefore face the challenge of implementing an appropriate procurement mechanism. This paper presents an economic explanation for this short-term change. Our analysis reveals that the proposed transfer of the concept for the procurement of spare capacity to the procurement of the grid reserve was not appropriate. The bidders would have been exposed to significant risks, in particular due to high cost and calculation uncertainties, which are also critical with respect to the achievement of the objectives of the grid reserve. Therefore, we consider the decision of refusing the original procurement concept as the right step, although we consider a competitive procedure advantageous. However, such a procedure has to take the special requirements of the grid reserve into account. Yet this problem remains even after the transfer of responsibility from the BMWi to the transmission system operators.     

Klimaschutzpolitik in Deutschland – eine ökonomische Konsistenzanalyse der Rahmenbedingungen für den Strommarkt

In order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions stemming from the electricity sector, Germany has implemented various instruments during the last ten years. The joint effect of both these instruments and the emissions trading system of the European Union is significant over-regulation. The German support systems for renewable energy and combined heat and power as well as the electricity tax don’t have any positive effect on climate protection any more. In the case of combined heat and power the support system may even result in increases of CO₂-emissions. For efficiency reasons climate protection policy in the power sector should be limited to emissions trading.     

Lessons to Learn? Rückblick auf 10 Jahre „Schiefergasrevolution“ in den USA und Bestandsaufnahme für Europa

A decade ago, the “shale gas revolution” started in the United States. An increased natural gas production turned the U.S. from a highly import depending gas economy to an exporter of gas. This supply increase led to decreasing gas prices, which were followed by decreasing electricity prices. In contrast to Europe, this price development was the driver for an increased industrial production in the U.S.. This development was enabled by technical progress, namely the advanced usage of hydraulic fracturing, the so-called “fracking”. However, this gas production method could cause significant environmental impacts, such as ground water pollution or earthquakes. Most European governments are driven by environmental concerns, so that it is rather unlikely that a similar “shale gas revolution” will occur in Europe.     

Multikriterielles Entscheidungsmodell für Anpassungsmaßnahmen am Beispiel der L/H-Gas-Umstellung in Deutschland

The German gas supply system is separated into two networks: one for high-calorific gas (H-gas) and one for low-calorific gas (L-gas). In particular, the L-gas volume is declining significantly, which means that there will be problems in security of supply in near future. This paper highlights the most important aspects that have to be considered when adjusting the German gas network to the future decline of L-gas production. First, the article discusses different possible adjustment options: (1) adjustment of market areas from low-calorific gas supply to high-calorific gas supply, (2) blending facilities (conversion of high calorific gas using nitrogen or air) and (3) the combination of both options. Subsequently, the authors outline the necessary planning process that must precede any adjustment option. The so-called network differentiation is followed by the network modeling: Using the net present value method and taking into account certain constraints, the authors define a simple optimization problem to determine the most economical investment and adjustment times for each option. Based on first model considerations it can be concluded that the implementation of adjustment options should be delayed as long as possible without compromising the security of supply. Nevertheless, an early start of the planning process is mandatory to ensure that adjustment options can be established in due time before an L-gas supply deficit occurs. The question, which adjustment option should be chosen, cannot be answered universally. It depends on the conditions and structure of the network as well as the structure of the final consumers.     

Der EU Richtlinienvorschlag für erneuerbare Energien — Eine Analyse der Transferrestriktionen von Herkunftsnachweisen

Until now the promotion of renewable energies in Europe has been effected on the basis of different promotion systems of the Member States. Currently the EU-wide harmonisation of the promotion systems, from which yields of efficiency and a higher effectiveness are expected, cannot be enforced due to a discordance concerning the “right” promotion instrument.With the proposal for a directive on the promotion of renewable energies, published at the 23. January in 2008, the European Commission attempts to make a first move towards harmonisation. Besides existing promotion systems it will be possible to transfer Guarantees of Origin for renewable energies between Member States. Since, however, some Member States expect negative effects as a consequence of opening their markets the proposal comprises opportunities to restrict the transfer. The present scope of interpretation within the proposal allows for different options concerning the design of the transfer restrictions. These will be identified, analysed, and subsequently evaluated in this article. Despite of both extreme options, the possibility to entirely opt out of the transfer system and the obligation to completely participate in the transfer system, two further hybrid options are discussed. The latter are characterised by the possibility of Member States to restrict the transfer of Guarantees of Origin to a certain extent through a “system of prior authorisation”.     

Sektorale und gesamtwirtschaftliche Beurteilung des „Carbon-Leakage”-Problems für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland

In order to mitigate the global warming issue, the European Commission decided To reduce carbon dioxide emissions in Europe by 2020 by 20% (compared to 1990). This translates into an overall reduction of 1.1 billion tons. The most important Reduction tool in its policy arsenal is the Emission-Trading System (ETS). All ETS industries together are supposed to reduce their CO₂ emissions by 421 million tons or 21 % (compared to 2005). With a planned reduction of 421 million tons of CO₂, Germany’s ETS industries bear almost a quarter of the Overall reduction burden. The associated carbon leakage problem is only to some extent attributed to the climate protection targets. The planned adjustment of the major allocation mechanism in the third trading phase weights considerably more. In the third trading phase the free provision of benchmark-related emission permits will be replaced with a market-price auction system. A current study of the EEFA-Research Institute examines the effects of auctioning on compatibility, production and employment in Germany.     

Dynamische Berechnung der Stromgestehungskosten von Energiespeichern für die Energiesystemmodellierung und -einsatzplanung

Due to the transition in energy supply from fossil to renewable energy sources, energy storage systems are getting more and more important for the security of power supply. Therefore also the modeling of those storage systems in energy system modeling needs to be further discussed. This paper focuses on the levelized costs of energy storage. In the beginning, the existing approaches of calculating those costs are analyzed in a literature review. It will be shown that all of the approaches calculate the levelized costs on the basis of the energy storages’ lifetime. For the usage in energy system modeling it is mandatory that the calculation can be done for variable and shorter time periods. Therefore this work’s approach calculates the costs based on the time of operation in any period chosen. Additionally, the model can be used for any type of storage system. After introducing the mathematical model, the levelized costs of energy storage will be calculated to illustrate the models properties and then verified with reference load profiles for five different energy storage types. Following this, particular input parameters are varied and sensitivities are pointed out. Most of the programs for power plant dispatch calculations use linear or mixed integer linear programing algorithms. As the calculation of levelized costs of electricity is non-linear, most programs use fixed values during the whole time of simulation. In this article the integration of the presented approach into a linear optimization program via recursive and shifted calculation is elaborated. Results are presented and discussed.     

Ein Jahr danach: Erste empirische Ergebnisse der Ausschreibungen für Windenergie an Land gemäß EEG 2017

The sixth amendment of the German Renewable Energy Sources Act (Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetzes [EEG]) came into force at January 1st, 2017. Especially regarding onshore wind energy, it includes fundamental changes. Having set raised market integration as well as market compatibility and cost-efficiency as the main three goals, market-based tendering shall be the instrument to reach them.Meanwhile, the first three calls have been completed. This enables the opportunity for a first evaluation of the tendering as a system to fund onshore wind energy in Germany and a comparison of the criticism which came along with the newest amendment. At first glance, several improvements can be found: Especially a—previously expected—forced competition on the market but also low bid and tender values show a massive potential of cost reduction. However, the analysis further shows that energy cooperatives are disproportionally privileged, which leads to a distortion of competition and the risk of a future non-continuous development. Additionally, the current system results in regional disparities, coming along with disadvantages especially for the southern states. 10 suggestions for improvement show possible answers concerning the main shortcomings.     

Eine Bewertung verschiedener Kapazitätsmechanismen für den deutschen Strommarkt

This article examines the economic impacts of an implementation of different capacity mechanisms in the German market for electricity. We discuss selective mechanisms that address only newly installed capacity, as well as global mechanisms. Whenever appropriate, we give examples from international experience. We show that global mechanisms—contrary to selective mechanisms—can incentivize efficient investment decisions. However, due to the regulatory intensity of such mechanisms we advise not to take such measures unless a clear need is indicated.     

Bereitstellung von Regelleistung durch Elektrofahrzeuge: Modellrechnungen für Deutschland im Jahr 2035

The German government has set ambitious goals for both the expansion of renewable energy supply and electromobility. According to its Energiewende policy, electricity supply from fluctuating renewables is supposed to further increase considerably. This will tend to require a greater provision of balancing reserves. At the same time, supply from conventional dispatchable plants, which used to provide the bulk of reserves, will decrease. Against this background, this article analyzes the scope for an assumed fleet of 4.4 million electric vehicles to supply balancing reserves in 2035. Examining two different future power plant scenarios, it explores the potentials of reserve provision with and without the option of feeding electricity from vehicle batteries back to the grid. Results from an extended open-source power system simulation model show that the assumed vehicle fleet can efficiently provide a substantial share of reserve requirements, also in case the vehicle-to-grid option is not available. Arbitrage on wholesale markets, on the other hand, is negligible under basic assumptions. Likewise, total system cost savings are minor when compared to a pure cost-optimal loading of vehicle batteries. Under alternative assumptions on the future power plant portfolio as well as on battery degradation costs, however, wholesale arbitrage, reserve provision, and system cost savings can be substantial.     

Stromspeicher für die „Energiewende“ – eine akteursbasierte Analyse der zusätzlichen Speicherkosten

Political targets for implementing the German “energy turnaround” aiming at the ambitious extension of renewable energies to generate electricity. However, a majority of the renewable supply is provided by intermittent sources, e.g. wind and solar power. For balancing the increasing supply fluctuations additional storage options are claimed beside of an enforced grid infrastructure and a more flexible demand side. Despite of the political guidelines the economics of additional flexibility measures has to be considered. For this paper we analyse the costs of large scale stationary battery storages to be operated in wholesale markets and transmission grid level. By deriving a key figure based on a life-cycle cost approach, we are able to evaluate the additional costs of electricity of selected battery technologies (lead-acid, lithium ion, sodium sulphur, redox-flow). Moreover, current and valid parameters of the cost analysis are received by scientific and industrial stakeholders of battery systems via online survey and face-to-face interviews. According to the stakeholder estimation a nationwide operation of stationary battery storages will be established at wholesale and transmission grid level until the year 2030. The life-cycle cost analysis, which also includes estimated future cost reductions, shows that lead-acid batteries remain the cost-efficient technology, assuming about 100 storage cycles p.a. In addition, a sensitivity analysis reveals the impact of increasing annual storage cycles as well as the achievable cost reduction by economies-of-scales of the power unit of the storage system.     

Marktwirtschaftliche Energiewende: Ein Wettbewerbsrahmen für die Stromversorgung mit alternativen Technologien

If the German energy transition is to succeed, environmental soundness should not be the only criterion on the agenda with respect to the restructuring of the energy system. It is rather the security of electricity supply and likewise the social sustainability during the transformation process that has to be ensured. The primary question is how to fulfill this challenge in the light of the legal obligation of a complete nuclear power phase-out in the most cost-effective way. The looming avalanche of costs triggered by record-breaking highs of the expanding solar power systems, promoted under the German Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG), should have made it clear that cost efficiency has only played a minor role so far. According to this study, (real) additional costs for all solar power systems, which had been installed between 2000 and the end of 2011 in Germany, sum up to about 100 billion Euros (prices as of 2011). Since these resources are withdrawn from other societal uses, it is essential that costs for the energy transition in general and in particular the consumers’ costs due to an increased share in renewable energies have to be minimized. For this reason, a new, more cost-efficient and market-oriented promotion/funding system is needed to replace the current system based on the EEG. As suggested by the Monopoly Commission (Monopolkommission 2011), the German Council of Economic Experts (SVR 2011) and recently by acatech, Germany’s National Academy of Science and Engineering (acatech 2012), a market-based promotion system with quantity control in the form of quotas for “green” energy would be a more efficient system. If from 2013 onwards, the future expansion of renewable energies would be fostered by a national quota-based system instead of the EEG, the expansion could be more cost-effective, according to calculations of this study. If, for example, the future price for green electricity certificates exclusively accelerated the expansion of on-shore wind power, the overall subsidies for those wind power capacities that may be installed between 2013 and 2020 merely amount to EUR 6.8 billion (current prices) instead of subsidies in the amount of nearly 58.8 billion Euro (current prices) in the case of further sticking to the EEG. This alone should give sufficient reason to replace the EEG as quickly as possible by a market-based support system such as the quota system.     

CO2 Speicherung in Deutschland: Eine Brückentechnologie als Klimalösung?

The technology for CO₂ capture, transport and storage (CCTS) in the power plant and industrial sector are considered as an important component in a portfolio of technologies for CO₂ reduction. However, delayed or canceled demonstration projects show that the cost of the capture unit, the necessary pipeline infrastructure and the scarce storage potential in geological formations restrict the CCTS potential. In addition, growing public resistance could lead a further reduction of the CO₂ abatement potential. In this paper the contribution of the CCTS technology for CO₂ reduction in the energy and industrial sectors in Germany is calculated using the model CCTSMOD. It turns out that the application of CCTS is economically interesting for selected industrial sectors under CO₂ certificate prices of 50 €/t and for the power sector under certificate prices of 75 €/t. Because of the limited storage potential, lack of alternative mitigation options and low cost of the deposition, a predominant use of technology in the steel and cement sector is recommended.     

Staatliche Regulierung und Digitalisierung als Antezedenzien für Innovationen in der Energiewirtschaft am Beispiel von REMIT

Probably no other industry is as affected by governmental interventions via regulation and their respective directives as is the energy industry. On the one hand, firms must deal with a considerable amount of resources bound in order to satisfy consequential challenges. On the other hand, a variety of chances are offered due to the phenomenon of strict regulation often fostering innovation. In addition, digitization has heavily influenced the energy industry among many others in several ways. Digitization has not only enabled new business model innovation, but also incorporated it in itself. Unfortunately, the circle of beneficiaries remained limited in the beginning, because many foremost municipal utilities do not possess enough capacities to exploit these chances. Nonetheless, as our case study of REMIT highlights established utilities were able to utilize this new market in form of business model innovation. Therefore our case serves as a blueprint for innovation management driven by regulation and digitization alike.     

Die Kosten des Klimaschutzes am Beispiel der Strompreise für private Haushalte

Power prices in Germany have been surging since the outset of the new millennium. Among the major reasons for this tendency are newly raised taxes and levies on electricity prices, whose introduction is primarily motivated by climate concerns. Without these taxes and levies, net electricity prices would have remained constant for private households. This article discusses these taxes and levies that have been responsible for the cost increases in private households’ electricity consumption. Most influential have been the feed-in tariffs for renewable energies, above all photovoltaics. According to our calculations, the levy for renewables will further increase in the up-coming years, thereby pushing consumers’ electricity cost once again. Our calculations also show that within the next couple of years, there will be a fierce competition among renewable energy technologies, most notably between photovoltaics and wind power. Politics would be well-advised, therefore, to limit the annual capacity of newly installed solar modules in order to avoid both the explosion of consumers’ electricity bills and strong competition among renewables.     

Kurzfrist-Lastprognose für die Day-Ahead- und Intraday-Stromnachfrage bei sich systematisch ändernden Lasten

Load forecasts are used in various fields of the German energy economic to plan and to optimize the schedule of the power generation or the purchase of power from the markets based on the results of the forecasts. Therefor accurate load forecasts are necessary. But many load forecasting models reach their limits when dealing with systematic changes in the profile of the energy demand, since the model is usually calibrated by historic data so the relation between the load and the input parameters are estimated. Due to changes in the load profile the load level is moving to another level compared to the historic one. While the forecasting model is still calibrated on the old level, this can lead to higher forecasting errors and these can in turn have negative consequences on the following optimization steps. That is why a methodological approach is presented so that the forecasting model is able to adapt a systematic change in the load profile. Therefor the presented approach is at first applied to a case of application, before it is applied to two more extreme variations of the load profile to identify possible limits of the presented approach.     

Der Markt für Sekundärregelenergie – Eine Bewertung des Regelenergieeinsatzes im Rahmen des Netzregelverbundes

In Germany there are four control areas that are operated by four independent system operators. Up to November 2008 there occurred antipodal use of secondary balancing power. Because this is inefficient, the market for secondary balancing power had been harmonized step by step. Since May 1st, 2010, harmonization is complete and no antipodal use occurs, so secondary balancing power should be used in an efficient way. This paper starts with an analysis of the auction data from May 1st, 2010 to December 31st, 2010. Total costs are computed as well. In the next step, total costs are computed. Subsequently, a comparison with the data before the harmonization process is made. On the one hand, major efficiency gains have been achieved. On the other hand, bids have strongly increased, which may be due to a different market environment, but also due to strategic bid submission.     

Techno-ökonomische Bewertung von Energie-Autarkie für die Energieversorgung von Einfamilienhäusern

Many consumers currently follow the idea of energy self-sufficiency and try to contribute to meet their energy needs in order to become independent and self-sufficient from the central power supply system. In order to achieve load-oriented energy self-sufficiency the provision of energy must cover the full energy demand at any time. Against this background, in this paper the costs and potentials of a load-oriented energy self-sufficiency of single-family homes are analysed. Thereby it is differentiated between electricity-, heat- and energy self-sufficiency. The modelling is carried out with the simulation environment ?Polysun Designer“ which allows a high temporal dynamic simulation of the annual energy demand and supply.The results show that, within the investigated supply variations, the highest levels of energy self-sufficiency can be achieved by an energy supply system completely based on electricity using a combination of PV; heat pump and battery storage. Depending on the building standard, a maximum of 45 (existing buildings) and 71?% (new buildings) of the building’s energy demand can be covered with renewable energy. The economic evaluation however has shown that under present conditions, none of the investigated supply variants can compete with conventional energy supply (public grid connection + gas condensing boiler).