Measuring the Trade Restrictiveness of Domestic Support using the EU Common Agricultural Policy as an Example

We develop an index that measures the overall trade effects of domestic support payments. Our index is based on the Mercantilist Trade Restrictiveness Index (MTRI) and is capable of analysing the development of the trade restrictiveness of domestic support payments over time and across countries. It facilitates the evaluation of agricultural policy reforms introducing changes in the composition of domestic support payments. We conduct this analysis with a computable general equilibrium model that is extended to depict detailed agricultural policies using the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union (EU) as an example. For the representation of agricultural policies, we updated the underlying database by incorporating detailed EU domestic support payments taken from the OECD Producer Support Estimate (PSE) tables and reconcile PSE data with the WTO classification scheme. Our index confirms a decrease in trade distortion stemming from the implementation of decoupled support in the EU. In addition, the trade-equivalent protection rate shows that the trade restrictiveness of domestic support payments depends on the assumptions made with regard to the degree of decoupling of those payments.     

The distributional effects of the Hilmer reforms on the Australian gas industry*

We analyse changes in the Australian gas industry during 1990s that were motivated by the Hilmer Reforms. We estimate the effects on real household income of the changes by combining a computable general equilibrium model with a microsimulation model. Although the structural changes were significant in their effects on the gas industry, they are estimated to have had minor effects on real household income in all Australian regions owing to the small size of the gas industry and household gas consumption at that time, and low importance of gas as an input to other industries. The changes are estimated to have slightly increased income inequality owing to the redistribution of income from labour to other primary factors.     

Exploiting comparative advantage in agriculture and resources: the way forward for Small Island States

Using Papua New Guinea as a case study, this paper investigates the macroeconomic and sectoral impacts of various developments in its agricultural and resource sector. It was found that commodity booms from 2004 to 2009 and the proposed large liquefied natural gas project increase output growth substantially but with Dutch disease consequences. The output expansion of the agricultural and fishery sectors on the other hand has limited positive impacts and the challenge lies in raising the productivity growth in these sectors and the better use of foreign aid. Lastly, the optimal policy strategy for sustainable development in the agricultural, fishery and resource sectors lies in the packaging of appropriate complementary policies (both institutional and economic) that support one another and the coherent implementation of these policies in a timely manner.     

GM crop technology and trade restraints: economic implications for Australia and New Zealand*

How much might the potential economic benefit from enhanced farm productivity associated with crop biotechnology adoption by Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) be offset by a loss of market access abroad for crops that may contain genetically modified (GM) organisms? This paper uses the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model to estimate effects of other countries' GM policies without and with ANZ farmers adopting GM varieties of various grains and oilseeds. The gross economic benefits to ANZ from adopting GM crops under a variety of scenarios could be positive even if the strict controls on imports from GM‐adopting countries by the European Union are maintained, but not if North‐East Asia also applied such trade restaints. From those gross economic effects would need to be subtracted society's evaluation of any new food safety concerns and negative environmental externalities (net of any new environmental and occupational health benefits), as well as any extra costs of segregation, identity preservation and consumer search.     

Economic and Household Impacts of Projected Policy Changes for the Irish Agri‐food Sector

The policy environment for the Irish agri‐food sector could change rapidly in the coming decade. A potentially positive factor will be the elimination of milk quotas in 2015, although a potentially negative factor will be further trade liberalisation and increased import competition. These changes come on top of the move to decouple direct aids to farmers in 2005 as part of the Mid‐Term Review of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy agreed in 2003. This paper examines these reforms and their impacts on the Irish economy and income distribution using a CGE model particularly rich in detail on the agri‐food sectors, differentiated household groups, and agricultural policy instruments including their links to productive factors and households. The results suggest that the past and projected changes in the policy environment have, in sum, a small positive impact on GDP and household income. However, the gains and losses are unequally distributed across sectors and household groups due to the highly differentiated distribution of support and protection. Although all households generally gain from the sequence of policy reforms in the long run, some experience strong adverse effects from particular reforms and in the medium term.     

Extent and possible causes of intrayear agricultural commodity price volatility

Wheat, corn, rice, soybeans, and cotton experienced higher volatility in the second half of the 2000s. For the sample at hand, the unit root tests only validate a new period of high volatility for wheat and cotton. If in the next couple of years however, corn, rice and soybeans maintain their higher volatility, a new period of high volatility may also be validated statistically. Regarding the factors driving the intrayear volatility GMM estimates show that “commodity market fundamentals” i.e., the stock‐to‐use ratio and to a lesser extent the degree of internationalization, are the most systematically statistically significant coefficients among commodities. Over time, consecutive low stock‐to‐use ratios and a thin international market provoke typically high volatility. Speculative activity and liquidity in the agricultural derivative market have a stabilizing effect on the spot price, if any. Finally, “common macro” factors significantly impact volatility, especially the volatility of petrol and of exchange rates; their dispersion importance over the sample is quite sizeable. However, it is difficult to establish a link between, on the one hand, loose monetary policy, business cycle and inflation, and, on the other hand, commodity price volatility, as the sign of the estimated coefficient changes depending on the commodity and the estimated elasticities are quite low.     

Some Consequences of the 1994–1995 Coffee Boom for Growth and Poverty Reduction in Uganda

This paper reports a computable general equilibrium analysis that explores the consequences of the 1994–1995 increase in the international price of coffee for Uganda's economy. Evidence is found for a small effect on both medium‐term growth and poverty reduction. Aid dependence is among the reasons why this effect is not found to be larger. Major beneficiary groups are not primarily the farmers to which the windfall initially accrued, but urban wage earners and the urban self‐employed.     

Hedging Multiple Price Uncertainty in International Grain Trade

Commodity and freight futures contracts are analyzed for their effectiveness in reducing uncertainty for international traders. A theoretical model is developed for a trader exposed to several types of risk. OLS hedge ratio estimation is compared to the SUR and the multivariate GARCH methodologies. Explicit modeling of the time-variation in hedge ratios via the multivariate GARCH methodology, using all derivatives, and taking into account dependencies between prices, results in reductions in risk, even after accounting for transaction costs. Results confirm that while the commodity futures contracts are important for hedging risk, freight futures are a useful mechanism for reducing risk.     

Self-Sufficiency Versus Free Trade: The Case of Rice in Iran

The dilemma of free trade and self-sufficiency for the case of rice in Iran justifies continuous governmental intervention in this market. Among all policy instruments, import tariffs have been extensively used to achieve self-sufficiency; however, the results of this policy are quite controversial and remain as a main question for researchers and policymakers. Hence, this article examines the economic impacts of increasing import tariff policy applying a multimarket spatial price equilibrium model. The results suggest that pursuing the goal of self- sufficiency by restricting rice import would be detrimental. Social welfare as well as real and per capita income are adversely affected by increasing import tariffs both in nationwide and regional scale except for 1 region, which is characterized as the largest net exporter region in Iran. Also results show that adopting free trade policies and improving rice yield may be the well-advised strategy in the case of rice in Iran.     

Developing Countries and the Gains from Regionalism: Links between Trade and Farm Policy Reforms in Mexico

We use a multi–country computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with agricultural policy details to simulate the effects of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). We find that Mexico gains from NAFTA only when it also removes domestic distortions in agriculture. In that case, agriculture can generate allocative efficiency gains large enough to offset the terms of trade losses that arise because Mexico has higher initial tariffs than its NAFTA partners. When an RTA forces a developing country to reform its domestic distortions that are linked to trade restrictions, it becomes a building block toward multilateralism.     

Contrasting Quantitative and Qualitative Approaches to Rural Development Analysis: The Case of Agricultural Intensification in Lebanon

While peripheral rural regions in Lebanon face typical problems of lagging development and economic marginalisation, they have not been regarded as a priority for policy‐makers. Local extensionists have encouraged technological innovation as a means of improving farmers’ livelihoods, and this has led to increasing input use and an intensification of agricultural production. This paper applies contrasting quantitative and qualitative methodologies to analyse the effects of such changes at the level of the overall economy of Lebanon and also to explore the impacts on rural households. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model simulates shocks in which agricultural output increases due to different types of intensification. The results are contrasted at local level through the use of qualitative case study analysis carried out in the Hermel district of northeast Lebanon. Quantitative simulations indicate that, while agricultural intensification has a positive effect overall on the Lebanese economy, the effects on rural households and the income of farmers are negative. The case‐study interviews demonstrate that, at local level, agricultural trade liberalisation, increased agricultural output and greater volatility of commodity prices have resulted in farmers opting for lower input use and more secure market forms of production.     

The rural non-farm sector: issues and evidence from developing countries

The rural non‐farm sector has traditionally been viewed as a low‐productivity sector which produces low quality goods. It is often expected to wither away as a country develops. Recent years have seen a shift away from this position towards recognition that the rural non‐farm sector can, and often does, contribute to economic growth, rural employment, poverty reduction, and a more spatially balanced population distribution. This paper reviews the literature on the conceptual and empirical underpinnings of this more recent perspective, focussing on the experience in developing countries. The paper documents the size and heterogeneity of the sector, pointing to evidence that in many countries the sector is expanding rather than declining. The issues associated with measuring the sector's economic contribution are discussed, followed by empirical assessments for several countries and regions. The distributional impact of non‐farm earnings is examined and it is found that a pro‐poor impact, while by no means inevitable, can be considerable. The sector's trajectory over time, in different settings, is reviewed and the scope for, and experience of, various policy interventions is discussed.     

The Indirect Land Use Impacts of United States Biofuel Policies: The Importance of Acreage, Yield, and Bilateral Trade Responses

Recent analysis has highlighted agricultural land conversion as a significant debit in the greenhouse gas accounting of ethanol as an alternative fuel. A controversial element of this debate is the role of crop yield growth as a means of avoiding cropland conversion in the face of biofuels growth. We find that standard assumptions of yield response are unduly restrictive. Furthermore, we identify both the acreage response and bilateral trade specifications as critical considerations for predicting global land use change. Sensitivity analysis reveals that each of these contributes importantly to parametric uncertainty.     

Trade and agroindustrialization in developing countries: trends and policy impacts

There have been important changes in the international trade of processed and high-value added food products from developing countries over the past several decades. One of them has been the emergence of oilseeds and fruits and vegetables, replacing traditional products such as sugar, coffee, and cocoa as the main exports from developing countries. Another trend has been the collapse of African agroindustrial exports and the increase of exports from Asia. The paper highlights key trends, and explores possible reasons for the trends, focusing on trade policies in less-developed countries (LDCs) and developed countries (DCs). The paper argues that national trade policies and other economic policies appear to have been relatively supportive of agroindustrial production and exports in Asia. In contrast, policies have had more mixed effects in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), and seem to have been just one component in a larger array of forces inhibiting economic development in Africa. The performance of agroindustrial production and exports from LDCs may be now more dependent than ever on the completion of reforms in the agricultural trade policies of DCs. For Africa, however, a more supportive international environment and better macroeconomic and trade policies will not be enough to ensure a thriving agroindustrial sector within a broader process of economic development until military confrontations stop.     

Land expansion and growth in low‐ and middle‐income countries*

Over past decades, low and middle‐income countries have experienced considerable expansion of agricultural land, yet this effect on growth has not been examined The following paper shows that the Solow‐Swan growth model can be extended to the case whereby arable land is expanding, as originally suggested by Solow (1956). This extension indicates that land expansion boosts growth, and this effect increases with the relative share of land in income. An empirical analysis over 1990–2018 for 138 low and middle‐income countries supports this finding. The growth impact of land expansion over 1990–2018 varied significantly across the sample of countries depending on how much income was derived from land. This result explains why countries dependent on agriculture have engaged in extensive land expansion: it boosts overall growth. However, these growth benefits must be weighed against the considerable environmental costs of converting forests and other natural habitat to more agricultural land, such as increased carbon emissions, loss of ecosystem services and biodiversity, risk of disease, and impacts on local livelihoods.     

Food policy and poverty in Indonesia: a general equilibrium analysis*

Rice is Indonesia's staple food and accounts for large shares of both consumers' budgets and total employment. Until recently, Indonesia was the world's largest importer, but rice import policy is now highly protectionist. Since early 2004, rice imports have been officially banned. Advocates of this policy say it reduces poverty by assisting poor farmers. Opponents say it increases poverty, stressing negative effects on poor consumers. This paper uses a general equilibrium model of the Indonesian economy to analyse the effects of a ban on rice imports. The analysis recognises 1000 individual households, including all major socioeconomic categories, disaggregated by expenditures per person. It takes account of effects on each household's real expenditure and its income, operating through wages and returns to land and capital. The results indicate that the rice import ban raises the domestic price of rice relative to the import price by an amount equivalent to a 125 per cent tariff, six times the pre‐2004 tariff. Poverty incidence rises by a little under 1 per cent of the population and increases in both rural and urban areas. Among farmers, only the richest gain. These results are qualitatively robust to variations in key parametric assumptions.     

Warehouse receipt financing for smallholders in developing countries: Challenges and limitations

A warehouse receipt is a document issued by a warehouse operator as evidence that a specified commodity of stated quantity and quality has been deposited at a particular warehouse by a named depositor. When backed by an appropriate legal and regulatory framework, a warehouse receipt becomes a formal financial instrument that allows the depositor to confer a security interest in the stored commodity to another party without requiring physical delivery, allowing the warehouse receipt to serve as possessory collateral for a loan. Warehouse receipt financing, in theory, permits smallholders farmers in developing countries to store their surplus safely in a modern warehouse to sell at a later date when prices are higher, while allowing them to use the stored commodity as collateral to secure a loan to finance household consumption and investment needs in the interim. However, in practice, warehouse receipt financing generally has not been embraced by smallholders in developing countries in which it is available. Here, we develop and analyze a formal stochastic dynamic model of seasonal commodity marketing that exposes the transaction cost and risk reallocation problems that undermine the benefits of warehouse receipt financing to smallholders.     

论国际贸易中跟单信用证风险及对策

跟单信用证是国际贸易中最主要的一种结算支付方式。其最大的特点之一在于它是一种纯粹的单据业务。跟单信用证交易中的严格相符原则已成为制约信用证当事人间的基本法律原则。分析了跟单信用证单证不符点及对策和跟单信用证项下的欺诈及防范,在国际贸易中具有重要的理论意义和应用价值。     

Distinguishing between Equilibrium and Integration in Spatial Price Analysis

This article introduces a new spatial price analysis methodology based on maximum likelihood estimation of a mixture distribution model incorporating price, transfer cost, and trade flow data. This method permits differentiation between market integration and competitive market equilibrium and derivation of intuitive measures of intermarket tradability, competitive market equilibrium, perfect integration, segmented equilibrium, and segmented disequilibrium. One can also use these estimates to derive semiparametric measures of time-varying regime probabilities to track changing market conditions. An application to trade in soybean meal among Pacific Rim economies demonstrates the usefulness of the method.