REGIONAL INCOME INEQUALITY IN INDONESIA AND THE INITIAL IMPACT OF THE ECONOMIC CRISIS

This paper estimates regional income inequality from 1993 to 1998, using a Theil index based upon district-level GDP and population data. Between 1993 and 1997, when Indonesia's annual average growth rate exceeded 7%, regional income inequality rose significantly. A two-stage nested inequality decomposition analysis indicates this was due mainly to an increase in within-province inequality, especially in Riau, Jakarta and West and East Java. In 1997, the within-province component represented about 50% of regional income inequality. The crisis caused per capita GDP growth to revert to its 1995 level, but the impact was spread unevenly across provinces and districts. In 1998 regional income inequality declined to its 1993-94 level. In contrast to 1993-97, three-quarters of the 1998 decline was due to a change in between-province inequality, with the Java-Bali region playing a prominent role. The crisis appears particularly to have afflicted urban Java and urban Sumatra.     

Structural Changes in a Reforming World Economy: Implications for Indonesia

How will rapid East Asian industrialisation and international trade policy reforms affect Indonesia's economy? Taking an economy-wide perspective and drawing on projections to 2005, based on a global applied general equilibrium model (GTAP), we show the impact of Uruguay Round implementation, and explore other international influences on Indonesia's and neighbouring economies. Trade reforms likely to accompany China's (and Taiwan's) membership of the WTO are projected to boost the competitiveness of Indonesia's primary sectors at the expense of light manufacturing and the overall economy, while failure by OECD countries to honour Uruguay Round obligations to open their textile and clothing markets would reduce industrialisation in the region, slowing growth in its net food imports. The benefits to Indonesia of APEC liberalisations are also reported. All projections were completed in 1997 before the enormity of the financial crisis became clear; follow-on research should quantify the growth slowdown's impact on these results.     

The Structure of Protection in Indonesia in 1989 1

Around the mid-1980s, Indonesia's protectionist regime supported an industrial structure in which industries were mainly oriented towards producing for the domestic market. Since then, trade policies have shifted to a more outward-looking strategy, stimulating the growth and diversification of non-oil manufactured exports. This paper attempts to quantify the nominal and effective rates of protection resulting from trade policies at the end of the 1980s. After an introduction in which the 1989 trade policies are discussed, estimates of nominal and effective rates of protection are presented. It is shown that though the level of protection has declined since 1987, it still varies widely across economic sectors. Furthermore, despite the more open trade strategy, the paper's findings show that the trade regime remains biased against exports. Finally, by examining some trade policy issues, the paper presents further ways of rationalising the structure of protection in Indonesia's industrial sector.     

Indonesia's Industrial Transformation 1 Part I

It is now possible to obtain a fairly complete picture of Indonesian industril development, based on the 1986 Economic Census and subsequent Updates, the mcorporation of the huge oil and gas sector, and die earlier industrial data base. The picture is one of dramatic growth and transformation since the late 1960s when Indonesia was one of the least industrialised countries for its size. In this paper we examine the pattern and changing structure of industry, focusing on industry composition, regional industrialisation, ownership, scale and wages. Indonesia's industrial transformation is evident not only in rapid Output and employment growth, but also in the transition to more capital and skill-intensive industries, a narrowing in the earlier very large (almost ‘dualistic’) productivity differentials, strong productivity and wage growth, a broadening of the industrial base outside Java, and a probable reduction in concentration levels (at least by establishment).     

The road to pro-poor growth: the Indonesian experience in regional perspective

Indonesia's long-run ‘pro-poor growth’ record is among the best in Asia. It shows that appropriate policies can free societies from poverty's worst manifestations in a generation, a crucial message as democracy begins to influence the policy process. This paper places Indonesia's record in regional perspective, analysing determinants of income distribution in Asia and connecting this analysis to Indonesia's pro-poor growth process and the policy mechanisms that encourage pro-poor growth. Using a data set for eight Asian countries, it examines patterns of change in incomes and distribution across countries and over time. Building on Indonesian experience, the paper presents a pro-poor growth model encompassing three levels: improving the ‘capabilities’ of the poor, lowering transactions costs in the economy, especially between rural and urban areas, and increasing demand for goods and services produced by the poor. It finds that rapid pro-poor growth requires simultaneous and balanced interaction between growth and distribution processes.     

Comparative Advantage and Protection in Indonesia 1

The comparative advantage of Indonesia's traded goods producing sectors is examined in this paper. Comparative advantage is studied by computing the domestic resource costs of foreign exchange earned or saved in each of the 138 such sectors defined in the 1985 input-output tables for Indonesia. The paper also computes measures of effective rates of protection. It is found that these two types of measures are highly correlated across industries. The paper also shows that between 1975 and 1987 the distortionary effects of Indonesia's trade policies declined markedly. Nevertheless, Indonesia's most highly protected industries continue to be those in which its comparative advantage is least.     

Are workers more vulnerable in tradable industries?

Reduced trade barriers and lower costs of transportation and information have meant that a growing part of the economy has been exposed to international trade. In particular, this is the case in the service sector. We divide the service sector into a tradable and a non-tradable part using an approach to identify tradable industries utilizing a measure of regional concentration of production. We examine whether the probability of displacement is higher and income losses after displacement greater for workers in tradable services and manufacturing (tradable) than in non-tradable services. We also analyze whether the probability of re-employment is higher for workers displaced from tradable services and manufacturing than from non-tradable services. We find that in the 2000s the probability of displacement is relatively high in tradable services in comparison to non-tradable services and manufacturing. On the other hand, the probability of re-employment is higher for those displaced from tradable services. The largest income losses are found for those who had been displaced from manufacturing. Interestingly, the income losses of those displaced from manufacturing seems mainly to be due to longer spells of non-employment, whereas for those displaced in tradable services lower wages in their new jobs compared to their pre-displacement jobs appears to play a larger role.     

Allocative Efficiency of Agrifood Traders: Shrimp Traders in Indonesia

Shrimp is one of Indonesia's most important agricultural export commodities, with an annual export value exceeding $1 billion. If this high-value sector is to remain competitive and continue to grow, rural traders must be able to efficiently allocate scarce labour and factor inputs to trade shrimp. This study tests for factors leading to allocative inefficiency in the shrimp trade, by estimating a stochastic cost frontier on the basis of data from a survey of 200 shrimp traders in Central Java and South Sulawesi. Our results show that larger firms have a distinct cost advantage in trade and, owing in part to greater access to factor markets, are more efficient in allocating factors. Small firms can improve their allocative efficiency and become more competitive by specialising in trading one shrimp variety and by using output contracts to mitigate risk in the output market.     

Competition Policy in Indonesia and the New Anti-Monopoly and Fair Competition Law

This paper explores the role of competition policy in shaping a business environment that will encourage firms to improve their efficiency and competitiveness. After discussing the scope and objectives of competition policy, and whether a liberal trade and investment regime can substitute for, or should complement, a competition law, the paper offers an assessment of Indonesia's new competition law. Its shortcomings include a serious lack of clarity about objectives and a confusion between objectives and the means to achieve them; a failure to distinguish between various kinds of monopoly; a tendency to prohibit certain activities and agreements between firms without a clear analysis of the underlying economics involved; unnecessary and counterproductive exemptions from the provisions of the law; and failure to confront the reality that the principal obstacle to competition in the past has been unwarranted government intervention in markets.     

FIFTY YEARS OF TRADE POLICY IN INDONESIA: NEW WORLD TRADE,OLD TREATMENTS

Indonesia's trade policy has evolved over the last 50 years. It has been influenced by the country's level of development and the conflict between openness and protectionism; external developments, such as commodity booms and busts and increased competition; and international commitments, whether multilateral or regional. As a result, trade policy has often been ambivalent and ineffective. Given that Indonesia has undergone various transformations and that the world is a different place from what it was in 1965, the country needs to take a more pragmatic and forward-looking stance. Trade policy needs to be part of a comprehensive strategy to improve competitiveness and diversify exports. If Indonesia is to be part of the new paradigm, where the production of goods and services is based on production networks and global value chains, its policy focus will need to shift from protecting and favouring sectors to promoting trade and industrial policies that encourage the flow of goods, services, and people.     

Competitiveness of China's Manufacturing Industry and its Impacts on the Neighbouring Countries

This paper investigates the rapid growth of China's share in the international commodity market and the structural changes of China's commodity exports. It demonstrates a significant improvement of international competitiveness in China's manufacturing sector. The panel data analysis, based on a Solow–Swan type growth model on China's 37 manufacturing industries from 1991 to 2002, reveals that the main sources of the strengthened competitiveness of China's manufacturing sector have been mainly from Total Factor Productivity (TFP), while labour productivity has been increasing and capital productivity has been falling. A preliminary empirical analysis on the impacts of China's increasing competitiveness finds that there are negative correlations between China and most of its neighbouring countries, both newly industrialised economies and other Southeast Asian developing economies. However, there is no evidence of negative impacts of China's increasing competitiveness on developed countries such as the United States and Japan.     

Structural Changes and Regional Income Inequality in Indonesia: A Bidimensional Decomposition Analysis*

Using the bidimensional decomposition method of a population‐weighted coefficient of variation, this paper analyzes the changes in the determinants of interprovincial income inequality associated with structural changes in Indonesia from 1983 to 2004. The method unifies two inequality decompositions by regional groups and gross regional product components (industrial sectors) and, therefore, enables us to assess the contributions of gross regional product components to within‐region and between‐region inequalities, as well as to overall inequality. As the share of mining has decreased, the spatial distribution of manufacturing has played a more important role in the inequality of Sumatra and Kalimantan, while the primacy of Jakarta, with strong urbanization economies, facilitated by globalization and trade and financial liberalization, has determined much of the Java–Bali region's inequality and, therefore, overall inequality in Indonesia.     

Increasing Returns,the Choice of Technology,and the Gains from Trade

This paper studies the implications of international trade in a general equilibrium model in which the returns to scale are internal and firms choose their production technologies. The production function generated from internal increasing returns and the choice of technology leads to returns to scale similar to those based on external increasing returns. Trade always increases a country's welfare in a two-sector model in which the agricultural sector has constant returns to scale and average cost in the manufacturing sector may decrease without being bounded asymptotically by a given level of marginal cost. Why a small country may lose from trade under external increasing returns is also illustrated.     

Infrastructure and Industrial Development: The Case of Central Java

Industrial development does not take place in all regions at the same speed. This paper seeks explanations for regional differences in the development of manufacturing industry in Central Java. Special attention is paid to the impact of infrastructure (roads, telecommunications, electricity) on industrial development. The spatial distribution of manufacturing industry is analysed by means of both secondary data at the kabupaten level and primary data on 274 firms in various parts of Central Java. In addition to demand side factors, infrastructure does indeed play an important role, but local government bureaucratic procedures for obtaining land and permits are also important.     

The Role of Markets,Technology, and Policy in Generating Palm-Oil Demand in Indonesia

Indonesia produces more palm oil and consumes more palm oil per capita than any country in the world. This article examines the processes through which Indonesia has promoted palm-oil consumption and some of the consequences of that promotion. Partial equilibrium modelling shows that Indonesia's remarkable increase in palm-oil consumption since 1985 is not largely attributable to population and income growth. Instead, much of this consumption growth has resulted from substitution away from coconut oil, facilitated by government policies on technology, pricing, distribution, and trade. The switch from coconut oil to palm oil in Indonesia was associated with increased land conversions to agriculture and diminished smallholder competitiveness. Despite lower rates of cooking-oil substitution in the future, simulations suggest that Indonesia's total palm-oil consumption in 2035 will be at least double that of 2010.     

Income Strategies Among Rural Households in Mexico: The Role of Off-farm Activities

Off-farm activities generate on average more than half of farm households' incomes in the Mexican ejido sector. Participation in these activities helps reduce poverty and contributes to greater equality in the distribution of income. This paper analyzes the determinants of access to off-farm sources of income across households. We find that education plays a major role in accessing better remunerated nonagricultural employment. Adults of indigenous ethnic origin suffer from an educational lag and have less access to off-farm nonagricultural employment than non-indigenous adults at identical educational levels. The regional availability of off-farm employment strongly affects participation. In addition, women are differentially limited by distance to urban centers in their ability to gain off-farm employment.     

Indonesia's Transition to a Net Oil Importing Country: Critical Issues in the Downstream Oil Sector

Given its limited oil reserves and increasing petroleum product consumption, Indonesia will become a net oil importer in the near future, facing increasing petroleum product imports while continuing to export still available but diminishing crude oil This paper examines the implications of that prospect for Indonesia's terms of trade, assessing the future supply and demand balance in the domestic market The assessment includes a petroleum price forecast vis-à-vis the international market, in which Indonesia imports more valuable products while exporting less valuable crude oils To meet this challenge, the key policy issue in the downstream oil sector is the need to bring private participation into the refining and retailing business, by means of a freer market pricing policy and private access to the domestic market.     

Interindustry Linkages in Indonesian Manufacturing 1

Deepening and strengthening of the industrial structure one of the prionties of industrial development in Indonesia. In this article, data from input-output tables have been used to examine the interindustry structure of the Indonesian non-oil manufacturing sector. Analysis of structural changes in manufacturing shows thaf exports have become the main engine of growth for the non-oil manufacturing sector. It is also found that this development is not inconsistent with the integration of the manufacturing sector in the economy, as manufactured exports on the whole are characterised by strong backward linkages. Furthermore, the analysis reveals that manufactured exports make significant contribution to employment, because both direct and total labour intensities of Indonesia's expomng sectors are relatively high.     

Exports,Imports and Productivity: Results from Indonesian Establishment Data

Using detailed micro data from the Indonesian manufacturing sector we examine whether participation in international trade affects establishments' productivity. Establishments participating in exports or imports have relatively high levels of productivity. Furthermore, the results suggest that establishments engaged only in exports have shown comparable high productivity growth. The larger the share of an establishment's output that is exported, the higher its productivity growth. The results concerning the effect of imports on productivity growth are mixed.     

The Surge of Asian NIC Investment into Indonesia 1

Since 1987 a dramatic increase in both domestic and foreign investment in Indonesia, most of it in export-oriented activities, has occurred in response to improvements in a previously unattractive investment climate and in the country's trade regime. Most striking has been the rise in investment by Asia's four ‘newly-industrialising countries’ (NICs): Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore. This paper analyses the factors contributing to this increase and the investment patterns of the four countries. It then focuses on investment in the manufacturing sector, where most of the NIC investments have taken place. The relative importance of each country as a source of investment in individual sectors and industries is examined. The paper concludes that this recent investment surge may yield net social benefits for Indonesia, provided the country continues to adhere to sound macroeconomic and export-promoting policies.