税收的静态可计算一般均衡模型分析

建立研究中国税收问题的可计算一般均衡模型是一般均衡模型是本文进行探讨的目的,经过大量简化处理,本文建立的税收可计算一般均衡模型模拟了经济运行情况,并有侧重地讨论了我国三大流转税（增值税、消费税和营业税）的经济影响。同时,该简化模型的方法也为进上步推进中国税收可计算均衡模型研究工作打下基础。     

Externality Policy Reform: A General Equilibrium Analysis

We characterize Pareto‐improving and equilibrium‐preserving policy reforms in a second‐best (Diamond/Mirrlees) world with a consumption externality. A counterintuitive finding is that, starting from an initial equilibrium with no direct quantity control on the externality, it is possible that all Pareto‐improving and equilibrium‐preserving directions of change require an increase in a negative externality. We provide intuition for these results by establishing a nexus between Guesnerie's approach to designing (tax) policy reforms and the standard Kuhn–Tucker technique for identifying the manifold of feasible Pareto‐optimal states, given the instruments available to the policy maker.     

间接税改革的宏观经济效应:一般均衡分析

建立一个研究中国整体经济的可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型.对我国现行税制间接税税率调整,间接税向直接税转化,间接税调整对储蓄、投资的影响等措施的宏观经济效应进行分析,提出一些可供选择的税收政策改革方案.在此基础上,指出了本CGE模型的局限与改进方向.     

The German Business Tax Reform of 2000: A General Equilibrium Analysis

In the year 2000 Germany enacted a major tax reform involving significant cuts in corporate and personal tax rates and a controversial change in the system of dividend taxation. This paper discusses the effects of the business tax reform on the German economy. The analysis is based on a detailed general equilibrium model of the OECD economy which is designed to illustrate the domestic and international effects of national tax policies. The simulations indicate that the German business tax reform will raise domestic economic activity and welfare, although the welfare gain will accrue disproportionately to households with a high ratio of property income to total income.     

Pigouvian Taxes in General Equilibrium with a Fixed Tax Redistribution Rule

This paper establishes existence of a first-best emission tax in a general equilibrium model with pollution, when the redistribution rule of the tax income is chosen fixed and independently of the Pigouvian tax rate. It is known that under standard convexity assumptions each Pareto efficient allocation can be implemented by simultaneously choosing a Pigouvian tax rate and an appropriate lump sum redistribution of income. In real politics, however, tax redistribution schemes are often restricted to a small feasible set. Nonetheless we show that for any given lump sum redistribution rule, being continuous in overall tax income, an emission tax rate exists that leads to a Pareto efficient equilibrium.     

Trade and Indeterminacy in a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model

This paper introduces sector-specific externalities in the Heckscher-Ohlin two-country dynamic general equilibrium model to show that indeterminacy of the equilibrium path in the world market can occur. Under certain conditions in terms of factor intensities, there are multiple equilibrium paths from the same initial distribution of capital in the world market, and the distribution of capital in the limit differs among equilibrium paths. One equilibrium path converges to a long-run equilibrium in which the international ranking of factor endowment ratios differs from the initial ranking; another equilibrium path maintains the initial ranking and converges to another long-run equilibrium. Since the path realized is indeterminate, so is the long-run trade pattern. Therefore, the Long-Run Heckscher-Ohlin prediction is vulnerable to the introduction of externality. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E13, E32, F11, F43.     

The Determination of the Equilibrium Exchange Rate in a Simple General Equilibrium Model

In this article, we develop an analytical general equilibrium model of the equilibrium exchange rate for emerging countries. This theoretical framework allows us to identify a relevant set of variables which determinate the equilibrium exchange rate and to explore how these variables influence the trajectory of the equilibrium exchange rate.     

General Equilibrium Impacts of VAT and Corporate Income Tax in Thailand

International Advances in Economic Research - In this paper, a computable general equilibrium model of Thailand is constructed in order to assess economy-wide impacts of reforms in the value added...     

Learning and Equilibrium Selection in a Monetary Overlapping Generations Model with Sticky Prices

We study adaptive learning in a monetary overlapping generations model with sticky prices and monopolistic competition for the case where learning agents observe current endogenous variables. Observability of current variables is essential for informational consistency of the learning setup with the model setup but generates multiple temporary equilibria when prices are flexible and prevents a straightforward construction of the learning dynamics. Sticky prices overcome this problem by avoiding simultaneity between prices and price expectations. Adaptive learning then robustly selects the determinate (monetary) steady state independent from the degree of imperfect competition. The indeterminate (non-monetary) steady state and non-stationary equilibria are never stable. Stability in a deterministic version of the model may differ because perfect foresight equilibria can be the limit of restricted perceptions equilibria of the stochastic economy with vanishing noise and thereby inherit different stability properties. This discontinuity at the zero variance of shocks suggests one should analyse learning in stochastic models.     

住房支出、住房价格、财富效应与居民消费增长——兼论货币政策对资产价格波动的关注

理论上看,从住房支出和财富效应的综合角度加强对居民消费的分析是必要的。本文构造一个包括住房支出、资产及其财富效应、可支配收入和利率的消费函数。实证分析表明,住房支出等占居民消费性支出的比重较大,住房支出的比例与居民消费的增长呈现反方向变动关系,资产呈现较弱的负财富效应。一个重要的涵义是,要通过居民消费的增长来实现经济增长方式的转型,必须有效遏制住房价格的过快上涨,并维持房地产市场的平稳发展。为此,应该使用财政货币政策等多种手段,促进房地产市场的稳定运行。     

住宅市场风险、需求倾向与住宅价格波动-一个理论与实证分析

本文基于一个包含市场风险的住宅需求倾向与住宅价格决定模型,利用CHNS数据,检验了住宅价格风险和风险对冲倾向对需求倾向与住宅价格的影响。本文的主要发现是,住宅价格风险对需求倾向和住宅价格具有负向影响,风险对冲倾向对购房概率和住宅价格具有正向影响;在住宅需求倾向方面,风险对冲倾向对社会地位高的家庭的影响要高于社会地位较低的家庭,但后者的消费行为对住宅价格的影响则更显著。     

Resource Rights and Markets in a General Equilibrium Model of Production

Rights to a free resource lead to distributional deadweight losses in partial equilibrium. The present paper examines related distortions in a general equilibrium model of production with output prices constant for the small open economy. The free resource can result in lower output than a market with weak substitution in the other sector. The free resource also leads to a convex production frontier implying a price increase lowers output in the sector. Regarding policy, an import tariff, export subsidy, or price support would lower sector output. These general equilibrium distortions increase the incentives to favor resource markets over rights.     

期房价格博弈模型的一个均衡解及其应用

对期房市场的分析发现：在信息不对称的情况下，开发商与消费者在动态的博彝过程中，由于受到交易利益的约束，双方就质量与价格的评判及其市场行为选择将在某一时点上达到均衡：在理想状态下，开发商与消费者关于期房市场其预期价格的相对比值为“1：√2”。应用该结果对天津市期房市场目前的价格走势进行分析，发现存在着价格虚高，产品结构不尽合理等问题。为此政府应加强宏观调控，规范开发商的市场行为，同时加大经济适用房的开发与建设。     

The Impact of Monetary Policy and Housing-Purchase Restrictions on Housing Prices in China

This paper examines the level and volatility effect of monetary policy on housing prices in China utilizing a novel set of housing price indices constructed by (Fang, H., QuanlinGu, W. X., & Zhou, L.-A. (2015). Demystifying the Chinese housing boom. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015, Volume 30. University of Chicago Press.). We find that in the long-run, average housing prices react positively to inflation, money supply and bank lending growth, and negatively to the reserve requirement ratio and benchmark lending rate. Housing prices in Tier 1 cities respond more sensitively to monetary shocks relative to Tier 2 and 3 cities, possibly due to surging demand and limited supply under housing-purchase restrictions (HPR). We further study the volatility effect of monetary shocks using the GARCH model and find that the benchmark lending rate, reserve requirement ratio and money supply growth have strong negative impact on the volatility of housing price growth. Our benchmark results remain robust after incorporating the HPR policy variable in the estimation, with a significant negative effect of HPR on housing price growth in Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities. Lastly, we conclude with recommendations on future monetary policy design and implementation, with a specific focus on the heterogeneous characteristics of China’s housing market.     

转轨国家的机制性腐败:一个一般均衡模型

本文通过一个一般均衡模型考察腐败对经济福利，分工的网络规模以及社会生产力的影响，我们首先计算了在每个个体均可自由择业的市场经济中的瓦尔拉斯均衡。然后考察当一个特权集团被选定为高层管理者时对社会福利产生的影响；最后考虑在管理者通过其代理人而形成共谋时的情形，即机制性腐败，此时，这个代理人通过索取一笔相当于贿赂的进入费用来为管理者的利益服务，而这时的管理者服务的价格仍然由一个瓦尔拉斯市场的供给和需求决定。该模型表明腐败增加了转轨国家特权集团（包括腐败的官员以及与其密切联关的人）的福利，并以牺牲大众的利益为代价。     

中国利率政策与房地产价格的互动关系研究

本文通过建立结构向量自回归模型对中国房地产价格与利率政策之间的互动关系进行了探讨,发现中国的利率政策并不能对房地产价格形成有效的调节,造成了利率政策房地产价格传导渠道的失效;相反,房地产价格冲击对利率政策却具有显著的正向影响,说明中国历史上的利率政策制定的确参考了房地产价格因素,并对其作出了一定的反应。本文还利用模拟分析对样本期间内我国利率政策的实施效果进行了分析评价。研究结论对中国中央银行利率政策的有效执行及房地产市场调控具有重要政策启示。     

Policy Bias and Agriculture: Partial and General Equilibrium Measures

The paper examines the impact of industrial protection, agricultural export taxes, and overvaluation of the exchange rate on the balance between the agricultural and nonagricultural sectors. Various agricultural terms-of-trade indices are constructed to measure the policy bias against agriculture in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework and compare the results with earlier partial equilibrium measures. Our results indicate that the partial equilibrium measures miss much of the action operating through indirect product and factor market linkages, while overstating the strength of the linkages between changes in the exchange rate and prices of traded goods on the agricultural terms of trade.     

CGE模型与税制研究

一般认为,在市场经济或混合经济条件下,可计算一般均衡模型(CGE模型)是进行宏观经济政策定量化分析的最合适的工具.由于任何一项税收政策的变化,都将通过价格机制把它的冲击传递到整个经济系统.因此,如果离开了一般均衡理论及其具体实现CGE模型,则很难从数量上去评价该项政策列整个国民经济的全面影响.目前,在西方国家,CGE模型技术已经成为分析税收政策的一项标准技术.本文将建立一个基本上能反映我国宏观经济运行状况的,用来进行税收政策研究的静态CGE模型.通过模型的模拟运行,研究各种税收政策变动对国民经济的近期影响和冲击.