GROWTH, POVERTY, AND INEQUALITY IN LATIN AMERICA: A CAUSAL ANALYSIS, 1970–94

Taking advantage of consistent poverty and income inequality data for 12 Latin American countries between 1970 and 1994, we analyze the determinants of changes in the incidence of urban and rural poverty and in Gini coefficients over spells of years, stressing in particular the role of aggregate income growth. We find that income growth reduces urban and rural poverty but not inequality. We also find that income growth is more effective in reducing urban poverty if the levels of inequality and poverty are lower, and the levels of secondary education higher. We show that there is an asymmetry in the impact of growth on poverty and inequality, with recession having strong negative effects on both poverty and inequality. Since growth does not reduce inequality, economic cycles create ratchet effects on the level of inequality. However, post-structural adjustment growth is quite effective at reducing poverty, particularly if inequality is low.     

收入不平等对中国经济增长的影响

使用21个省市的面板数据,对收入分配总体不平等进行分解,实证检验农村不平等、城市不平等以及城乡间不平等对经济增长的影响。研究发现:农村不平等程度越高,对经济增长的抑制作用越大;城市不平等对经济增长没有显著的影响;城乡间不平等与经济增长之间存在负相关关系。农村不平等、城乡间不平等与城市不平等相比,前两者在解释人均产出增长时发挥了更重要的作用。     

GENDER INEQUALITY IN EDUCATION IN CHINA: A META‐REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Although there is evidence that there was gender inequality in China's education system in the 1980s, the literature in China has mixed evidence on improvements in gender inequality in educational attainment over the past three decades. Some suggest gender inequality is still severe; others report progress. We seek to understand the progress China has made (if any) in reducing gender inequality in education since the 1980s. To meet this goal, we use a meta‐analysis approach which provides a new quantitative review of a relatively large volume of empirical literature on gender educational differentials. This article analyzes differences across both time and space, and also across different grade levels and ethnicities. Our results indicate that gender inequality in educational attainment still exists, but it has been narrowing over time. Moreover, it varies by area (rural versus urban) and grade level. There is nearly no significant gender inequality in the case of girls in urban areas or in the case of the 9 years of compulsory education (primary school and junior high school). Girls, however, still face inequality in rural areas (although inequality is falling over time) and when they reach high school or beyond. (JEL I24)     

Economic policy and income distribution in China

"Using the Kakwani interpolation method to reconstruct rural and urban size distributions, the authors present Lorenz curve estimates for Chinese income distribution by period, 1952-1986. The level of inequality is one of the lowest in the world. The change in inequality over time conforms to the experience of other less-developed countries. Although rural inequality increased after 1978, national inequality fell, due to a reduction in the rural-urban income gap."     

公共品二元结构对农民素质的消极影响及建议

农民是建设社会主义新农村的主体力量，农民素质的高低最终决定着社会主义新农村建设的成败。目前农民素质相对较低的社会根源是城乡公共品二元结构。我国长期存在的城乡公共品二元结构使农民丧失了提高自身素质的经济能力、积极的社会环境条件和教育条件。改革公共品二元结构，实现城乡公共品供给平等化，是提高农民素质的体制保证。     

Labor mobility, marketization and urban income change: Potential rural-urban harmonization or not

Previous literature omitted marketization process, a distinct phenomenon in transitional China, when the relationship between immigrants and indigenous urban income is investigated. We find that (1) marketization is a key factor of rural-urban harmonization; (2) segmentation of labor market has no real effect on urban income change since it may be evaded partly by rural labor; (3) the key determinants of urban income change are the cross effect between marketization and mobility, openness, and government spending; and (4) the marginal effect of immigrants is positive in some regions although it is averagely negative during the sample period. Rural-urban harmonization is totally possible if marketization process continues.     

收入差距与社会地位寻求:一个高储蓄率的原因

我们使用中国城镇住户调查数据证实:在控制家庭收入之后,收入差距仍然会显著减少家庭除教育以外的消费。我们还发现收入差距对低收入或年轻家庭的消费抑制更加明显,但能刺激教育投资的上升。这很可能来源于为提升社会地位而储蓄的动机。更高的社会地位可以带来各种物质或非物质上的收益。而社会不平等的增加意味着进入社会上层可以获得更高的收益,同时提升地位需要更多的财富。这些都可能加强人们为提高社会地位而储蓄的激励。     

Regional convergence of growth,inequality and poverty in India—An empirical study

The paper attempts to examine whether there is regional convergence of per capita consumption, inequality and poverty across various states in India. Using panel unit root tests that are robust to cross-sectional dependence, we find that inequality and poverty indicators converge at both rural and urban levels. Further, per capita consumption converges at urban level but not at rural level. Based on factor analysis, we find two groups of states for rural sectors, viz., low-growth and high-growth states, for each of which per capita consumption converges. We also attempt at identifying the responsible entities — central or state governments or both in cases where convergence is not achieved.     

Dynamics of the growth–inequality nexus in China: roles of surplus labor,openness, education,and technical change in province-panel analysis†

The paper examines the complex interrelationship between economic growth and the urban–rural income inequality in China by estimating a simultaneous equation system. This study uses a panel data-set that covers 29 provinces from 1988 to 2007, and compares the earlier period with the later period. It finds a robust and positive impact of the rural surplus labor on urban–rural inequality, which is consistent with Lewis’ dual economy theory. Economic growth is found to aggravate the urban–rural inequality in the earlier period, but there is no hard evidence in the later period. This implies that China has not yet, or at least by 2007, entered the second stage of the Kuznets curve. We also find no robust evidence on the impact of the inequality on growth in either period, but find robust evidence on the impact of both foreign direct investment and exports on the increasing inequality during the earlier period, whereas no significant impact in the later period is found. Finally, the spread of education reduced the inequality in the earlier period, but no such impact is robust in the later period.     

包容性金融发展与城乡居民收入差距*——基于中国内地省级面板数据的实证研究

本文借鉴二元经济增长模型,分析了包容性金融发展与城乡居民收入差距的关系,并采用2011—2015年中国内地省级面板数据,运用面板数据模型和系统GMM模型对理论假设进行了实证检验。实证分析发现：（1）包容性金融发展对缩小城乡居民收入差距具有明显的促进作用;（2）传统银行的金融服务成本、互联网金融的数字支持服务程度对城乡居民收入差距的影响显著为负,这表明,包容性金融发展缩小城乡居民收入差距的直接作用主要是通过降低金融服务成本实现的;（3）传统银行金融包容性在缩小城乡居民收入差距方面的作用,东部比中西部更加明显,而互联网金融包容性对城乡居民收入差距的影响在中西部地区显著。据此,本文提出,应重视包容性金融发展的收入分配效应,以缩小我国城乡居民收入差距。     

Culture,legal heritage and the regulation of labor

According to cross-cultural psychologists, cross-country differences in individualism vs. collectivism constitute an important dimension of cultural variation. Legal-economic theorists argue that legal philosophies such as common law and civil law have developed differently over centuries and have persistent effects. In this paper, we argue that the effects of culture and institutions should not be analyzed in isolation from each other, as this disregards their interactions. We merge the two separate literatures on cultural attributes and legal origin theories, and derive a hypothesis regarding their joint effects on labor market regulations. We hypothesize that the effect of individualism on the political determination of labor regulations should be particularly pronounced in more market-oriented economic systems (as in British common law countries) compared to more rigid and bureaucratic state-centered systems (as in French civil law countries). Market oriented economies give individual effort and ability greater room to flourish, which in individualistic cultures yields weaker labor regulations. The effect of individualism should be smaller in state centered systems. Using data on the average rigidity of labor regulations during the years 1950–2004 in 86 countries, we find that the negative effect of individualism on the rigidity of labor regulations is enhanced by the presence of a common law legal system. In fact, individualism has no effect on the rigidity of labor market regulations in civil law countries. Analogously, the negative effect of common law legal origin on labor market regulations is found to be conditional on the level of individualism. Individualism and common law legal systems are complements in the determination of labor regulations.     

二元经济下的集聚效应分析

本文基于农村工业化过程中存在严重的集聚不足之现实，以城市集聚经济的相关理论为基础引入城乡分割的约束条件实证分析了城市与农村工业活动的集聚效应。结果显示，城乡分割导致工业活动在农村与城市的“集聚二元性”，而集聚程度及其效应存在明显的地区和城乡差异。提高外国地区集聚程度能改善生产效率，这预示不仅要关注整体经济发展水平，也要重视促进城乡经济的一体化，提高经济活动集聚程度，以缩小地区和城乡差距。     

间接税归宿对城乡居民收入分配影响研究

使用全国城乡家庭消费和收入微观数据考察间接税对于城乡收入差距和收入分配的影响发现:平均来看,全国居民负担的税收占收入的比例是10.6%;不论在全国范围来看还是分别在城乡内部来看,间接税负担都呈现累退:低收入的负担率高于高收入的负担率。在城乡之间,城镇居民的税收负担率高于农村居民的税收负担率。间接税增加了城乡内部不平等,降低了城乡之间的不平等。间接税主要对低收入群体影响较大,略微恶化了整体收入不平等。     

Search, migration, and urban land use: The case of transportation policies

We develop a search-matching model with rural-urban migration and an explicit land market. Wages, job creation, urban housing prices are endogenous and we characterize the steady-state equilibrium. We then consider three different policies: a transportation policy that improves the public transport system in the city, an entry-cost policy that encourages investment in the city and a restricting-migration policy that imposes some costs on migrants. We show that all these policies can increase urban employment but the transportation policy has much more drastic effects. This is because a decrease in commuting costs has both a direct positive effect on land rents, which discourages migrants to move to the city, and a direct negative effect on urban wages, which reduces job creation and thus migration. When these two effects are combined with search frictions, the interactions between the land and the labor markets have amplifying positive effects on urban employment. Thus, improving the transport infrastructure in cities can increase urban employment despite the induced migration from rural areas.     

中国农村家庭脆弱性的测量与分解

在理论层面上,本文在效用理论基础上对脆弱性进行了定义并对其分解以反映消费的不平等性和波动性。在实证分析层面上,本文使用CFPS(Chinese Family Panel Studies)数据对中国农村家庭脆弱性进行量化与分解。量化结果表明多数农村家庭是脆弱的;分解结果发现相对于村间不平等,村内不平等是脆弱性的主要组成部分。家庭脆弱性及五个分解部分对家庭特征集合变量的OLS回归结果表明:增加农村家庭收入是降低其脆弱性最有效的手段;提高劳动力平均受教育水平能够有效降低家庭脆弱性,但大学教育支出会显著提高家庭的脆弱性水平,这较好地解释了目前出现的农村籍高中生弃考大学这一现象;新型农村合作医疗和社会保险能有效降低农村家庭脆弱性;社会资本、更大的家庭规模和更高的劳动力占比有利于降低家庭脆弱性,这能较好地解释中国农村家庭频繁的送礼活动以及倾向于组建大家庭的现象。     

The influence of rapid rural-urban migration on Korean national fertility levels

A autoregressive model is applied to personal migration and pregnancy histories recorded in the 1974 Korean World Fertility Survey to assess the adaptation effect of rural-urban migration on migrant fertility and national fertility levels. The objective of this study is to provide policy makers in developing nations with a model that will enable them to quantify the effects of rapid urbanization on the fertility level of migrant women and thus on national fertility levels. The fertility of rural-urban migrants is on the average lower than that of rural stayers; this study supports the adaptation hypothesis and indicates that rural-urban migrants experienced a significant reduction in 5 year fertility rates from those of comparable rural stayers after migration to the urban area. In addition, the city specific effects of migration on fertility are of considerable importance; migrants to larger cities adapt more over their lifetime than migrants to smaller cities. The completed adaptation by postmarital, rural-urban migrants is largest among migrants who are least educated. The autoregressive model controls the fertility level at the beginning of the observed period; it is assumed that this is a proxy for family size preferences. Results show that the completed fertility of migrant women with less than 4 years of school is 1.9 children fewer than that of comparable rural stayers, 1 child fewer for migrant women with 4 to 6 years of school, and .8 children fewer for migrant women with at least 6 years of school. For Korea, the overall effects on national fertility of rural-urban migration represent a reduction of 1.79 births per woman for the 1965-1970 period; it is estimated that the 945,400 rural-urban women migrants of this period would avoid, on average, 71,300 births annually for their expected average 24 years of urban life.     

产业结构调整的收入分配效应研究--基于1998-2012年中国省际面板数据模型的分析

产业结构调整作为政府实现宏观发展战略目标的重要调控手段,具有显著的收入分配效应。构建产业结构调整对城乡收入差距影响机理的分析框架,利用中国30个省份1998-2012年的面板数据,运用联立方程模型和内生分布滞后模型,研究产业结构调整的收入分配效应,结果发现：由于产业结构调整与人力资本结构负相关,在即期会强化农村居民在就业市场中的弱势地位,扩大城乡收入差距;在长期,城乡居民根据产业结构调整重塑就业预期,通过调整人力资本投资结构、提升人力资本水平实现职业转换,第5年以后将出现农村居民收入增幅高于城镇居民的格局,形成乡城收入赶超效应,产生缩小城乡收入差距的正面效应。     

Income Distribution and Aggregate Saving: A Non‐Monotonic Relationship

Drawing on a panel of advanced economies, this paper documents a concave and non‐monotonic link between inequality and the aggregate household saving rate. We find that, at a low level of inequality, more inequality is associated with higher saving; but we also show that a negative relationship between inequality and saving prevails where inequality is high. Using different empirical approaches, we locate the turning point, where the marginal effect of inequality turns from positive to negative, at a net income Gini coefficient of around 30. Moreover, we show that the relationship between inequality and saving also depends on financial market conditions. While inequality increases saving, when credit is scarce it tends to reduce saving at high levels of credit. This paper primarily focuses on household saving, yet we also find some evidence for a non‐monotonic effect of inequality on private saving, national saving, and the current account balance.     

我国收入不平等、金融发展和消费需求波动的实证研究:1978～2001

本文考察了收入不平等与总消费需求变动之间的联系,在高收入地区,不平等程度越大似乎消费需求波动越大,而在低收入地区,收入不平等越大,消费需求波动反而较小。本文找到证据表明金融发展水平能有助于解释为什么收入分配在高收入和低收入地区中影响消费需求的短期波动是不同的,本文的政策含义是,加快低收入地区如中西部的经济和金融发展步伐,加大金融发展相机调整的力度。