实际工资、劳动就业与中国的货币政策模拟——基于动态新凯恩斯主义视域的一般均衡分析

与传统计量经济学模型关注名义价格粘性和名义工资粘性不同,本文为排除“货币幻觉”的影响,从动态新凯恩斯主义的理论范式出发,设定价格和工资粘性的相关参数,构建符合中国宏观经济波动状况的随机动态一般均衡模型,然后观察实际工资、劳动就业对技术冲击、货币政策冲击的响应.数值模拟研究发现,该模型能够较好地拟合实际工资和劳动就业对技术冲击和货币政策冲击脉冲反应的经验特征.根据失业的历史方差分解,发现总需求冲击以及货币政策冲击在推动失业波动中具有重要作用,我国劳动力市场中存在着显著的“失业回滞”现象,这是经济增长的就业弹性系数相对较小的根本原因,也是抑制经济增长推动社会就业发挥作用的根本原因.同时本文提出,在研究中国劳动力市场和制定相关政策时,一定要密切关注产品和劳动力市场中的实际工资粘性等非完全竞争因素.     

灾难冲击与民营企业劳动力成本粘性

在中国自然灾难频发与劳动市场特征变迁的背景下，本文基于2010-2018年间A股上市公司数据，从成本粘性“效率观”的视角，研究自然灾难冲击如何影响民营企业的劳动力成本调整。本文发现：在调整成本与管理层预期影响下，灾难冲击显著提高了民营企业劳动力成本粘性，其中“数量”粘性提高更为显著，而“薪酬”粘性不显著，即相较于裁员，在遭遇灾难冲击时，企业会偏向调整员工薪酬。另外，本文发现劳动保护程度越高，灾难冲击下劳动力成本粘性越高，但企业、政府、市场的积极应对能缓解这一影响。拓展研究发现：不同的灾难类型对民营企业劳动力成本粘性存在差异性影响；且灾难冲击主要提高了民营企业生产人员的劳动力成本粘性。本文不仅是从企业决策视角对灾难冲击经济后果的重要补充，也丰富了中国制度背景下企业劳动成本调整的文献。     

控制权性质影响税收敏感性吗?——基于企业劳动力需求的检验

西方学者研究表明企业所得税是劳动力需求的重要影响因素,这一理论在中国是否适用?中国大部分上市公司为国有控股企业,这一特殊的制度背景是否会影响企业所得税与劳动力需求的关系?本文基于2007年企业所得税改革这一外生政策变化,在检验西方企业所得税与劳动力需求关系的理论在中国是否适用的基础上,就不同控制权的性质是否会影响企业劳动力需求的税收敏感性进行了检验。研究发现企业所得税税率降低和"就业税盾"增加提高了企业劳动力需求,但这种税率和"就业税盾"的变化对国有控股企业劳动力需求变化的影响要显著小于非国有控股企业。这表明税收是影响企业劳动力需求的重要因素,但国有控制权使得这种税收敏感性变弱。本文的研究结果不仅丰富了相关领域的国际学术文献,而且对我国就业政策的制定具有政策含义。     

数字金融与资本结构动态调整速度

资本结构动态调整对增强微观主体自主活力、提高企业高质量发展具有重要意义。本文以2011—2020年中国A股上市公司为样本数据，检验数字金融对资本结构的优化作用。研究发现，数字金融显著提升企业资本结构调整速度，并且向下调整速度快于向上调整速度。进一步研究发现，随着数字金融发展水平提升，国有企业向下调整速度以及非国有企业向上调整速度更加显著；数字金融通过增加(减少)企业获得长期债务融资的可能性提升向上(向下)调整速度。     

我国价格总水平决定的一个理论模型

开放经济条件下的价格总水平由产品市场、货币市场和劳动市场三个市场达到均衡状态时共同决定,影响我国价格总水平的主要因素包括货币供给量、名义工资水平、利率、汇率和资本市场发展水平。从长期来看,在其他情况不变的情况下,价格总水平随着名义货币供给量、名义工资水平、汇率以及利率的增加而上涨;推动资本市场发展对于促进价格总水平的稳定具有积极作用。     

关于新凯恩斯主义就业理论的思考——基于中国实际就业问题

一、理论与政策 新凯恩斯主义在对劳动力市场的研究中，提出了著名的工资粘性理论。研究者们从不同方向来阐释工资粘性，并提出工资粘性的产生导致了劳动力市场的失灵，只有通过政府干预，市场才得以出清。     

工资粘性、市场分割与劳动配置绩效

本文以工资粘性为切入点,对中国的29个省(区、市)的四个行业的工资调整机制进行二维比较分析,解释了改革开放以来中国工资和失业率双上升现象,得出了关于中国劳动力市场分割扭曲的一些定量结论。     

刘易斯模型与"民工荒"

刘易斯的二元经济模型是早期发展经济学的重要理论基石之一．本文结合中国的现实对刘易斯模型做了改造，使其变成一个包括三个阶段的模型，在劳动力供给曲线表现为水平线之前还有一个阶段向右上方倾斜，如此，刘易斯模型就能够解释不久前中国出现的所谓“民工荒”问题，“民工荒”实际上是由于工资粘性造成的一种假象，刘易斯模型的基本思想并没有错误。对企业来说。提高农民工名义工资是解决“民工荒”问题的基本措施，本文也认为农民工工资提高是一件大好事，但部分没有能力提高工资水平的企业必须实施战略、战术的调整．甚至转进内地。     

会计-税收差异、盈余管理与证券市场估值

在构建了资产负债表债务法下所得税"会计-税收差异"的度量公式后,将"会计-税收差异"区分为向上盈余管理的"会计-税收差异"和向下盈余管理的"会计-税收差异"。以2008～2010年沪深两市上市公司为研究样本,分别检验了这两种不同方向的"会计-税收差异"对证券资产市场估值的影响,研究结果表明:市场具有价值发现和自动纠正偏差的功能,将向上盈余管理"会计-税收差异"越大的公司视为越蕴含了夸大的业绩,对其估值越低;对向下盈余管理"会计-税收差异"越大的公司视为业绩越被低估的公司,从而调高了对其的估值。但从实证结果来看,投资者对向上盈余管理"会计-税收差异"的负向反应强度要显著高于对向下盈余管理"会计-税收差异"的正向反应强度。     

智能制造与劳动力成本粘性——基于工业机器人应用的视角

工业机器人是实现中国产业结构升级和经济高质量发展的重要推手，随着在各行业生产经营活动中的广泛应用，引发了各界对于其经济后果的密切关注。本文基于工业机器人应用产生的人工替代和就业创造效应，并结合我国劳动力供给和产业结构现状，探究了工业机器人应用对微观企业劳动力成本粘性的影响。研究发现，工业机器人应用显著降低了企业劳动力成本粘性。机制检验表明，工业机器人应用降低了生产经营活动中对劳动力的依赖，企业在业绩下降时裁撤了更多低教育水平冗余劳动力资源，通过减少员工数量而非降低员工薪酬待遇的方式调整劳动力成本。此外，工业机器人应用对于劳动力成本粘性的降低作用在劳动力被替代可行性较高、劳动力调整成本较低、民营企业、行业竞争程度较高以及客户集中度较低时更加明显。本文的研究结论不仅为“机器人换人”提升企业生产经营效率提供了来自中国的直接证据，也为如何规避“机器人换人”的潜在风险提供借鉴。     

How Rigid are Nominal Wages? Evidence and Implications for Germany*

Many recent attempts to find evidence on downward nominal wage rigidity in micro data have suffered from problems such as composition bias and the effects of measurement error. In this paper, a model of proportional downward nominal wage rigidity is developed which avoids these problems by taking into account the determinants of wage changes and the measurement process that leads to observable earnings changes. We find a high degree of downward nominal wage rigidity in German micro data. Its real implications for individual expected wage growth, the aggregate wage level and equilibrium unemployment have marked effects for rates of inflation lower than 3 percent.     

Downward nominal wage rigidity in Europe: an analysis of European micro data from the ECHP 1994–2001

This paper substantially extends the available evidence on downward nominal wage rigidity in the European Union (EU) and the Euro Area. We develop an econometric multi-country model based on Kahn’s (Am Econ Rev 87(5):993–1008, 1997) histogram-location approach and apply it to employee micro data from the European Community Household Panel for 12 of the EU’s member states. Our estimates for the degree of downward nominal wage rigidity on the national as well as the EU-wide level point to substantial downward nominal wage rigidity within the EU. A detailed comparison with other cross-national studies reveals an emerging consensus about which countries can be characterized as high or low rigidity countries, although the status of some countries remains unclear. The variation in national degrees of downward nominal wage rigidity cannot convincingly be explained by institutional variables.      

Downward nominal wage rigidity: Evidence from Canada 1901–1950

This paper tests for the presence of downward nominal wage rigidity in Canadian wage data for 26 occupations in 38 cities from the first half of the 20th century. The sample is of particular interest as it contains periods with average inflation rates that are close to zero as well as two sharp deflations. Results from a variety of different tests indicate that wage change distributions are consistent with the presence of downward nominal wage rigidity. However, for two subsamples containing sharp declines in output and prices, estimates of the extent of downward nominal wage rigidity are much lower. This suggests that downwards adjustments did occur during times of severe depression and deflation.     

Downward wage rigidity and job mobility

Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) we study whether being individually affected by downward wage rigidity has an effect on layoffs, quits and intra-firm mobility. Within a structural empirical model we estimate the individual extent of wage rigidity. This is expressed by the wage sweep-up, which measures by how much individual wage growth increases through the effect of downward wage rigidity when compared to a counterfactual labour market with flexible wage setting. We find robust negative effects of wage sweep-up on quits and layoffs and some evidence for a positive association of wage sweep-up and promotion opportunities. This is consistent with a core-periphery view of the labour force, where a core work force is protected from layoffs and wage cuts and at the same time enjoys good promotion opportunities. On the other side a peripheral work force provides a buffer for adjustment and suffers from both flexible wages, more insecure jobs and less internal promotion opportunities.      

Downward Wage Rigidity in Europe: A New Flexible Parametric Approach and Empirical Results

Abstract. We suggest a new parametric approach to estimate the extent of downward nominal wage rigidity in ten European countries between 1995 and 2001. The database used throughout is the User Data Base of the European Community Household Panel (ECHP). The proposed approach is based on the generalized hyperbolic distribution, which allows to model wage change distributions characterized by thick tales, skewness and leptokurtosis. Significant downward nominal wage rigidity is found in all countries under analysis, but the extent varies considerably across countries. Yearly estimates reveal increasing rigidity in Italy, Greece and Portugal, while rigidity is declining in Denmark and Belgium. The results imply that the costs of price stability differ substantially across Europe.     

Does downward nominal wage rigidity dampen wage increases?

Focusing on the compression of wage cuts, many empirical studies find a high degree of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR). However, the resulting macroeconomic effects seem to be surprisingly weak. This contradiction can be explained within an intertemporal framework in which DNWR not only prevents nominal wage cuts but also induces firms to compress wage increases. We analyze whether a compression of wage increases occurs when DNWR is binding by applying Unconditional Quantile Regression and Seemingly Unrelated Regression to a dataset comprising more than 169 million wage changes. We find evidence of a compression of wage increases and only very small effects of DNWR on average real wage growth. The results indicate that DNWR does not provide a strong argument against low inflation targets.     

Downward Nominal Rigidity in West German Earnings, 1975–95

If downward nominal wage rigidity exists, it should affect the distribution of earnings changes. We present a common analytical framework for three distinct and previously unconnected approaches to the analysis of downward nominal rigidity, the skewness–location approach, the symmetry approach and the histogram–location approach. We modify them by dropping the assumption of time-invariant rigidity and apply them to earnings data from the IAB-Beschftigtenstichprobe (IABS). We find that the distribution of West German log earnings changes is indeed affected by downward nominal rigidity. Our modification of the approaches also allows us to find that the degree of nominal rigidity depends on business cycle conditions, with weaker rigidity in times of rising unemployment. Our findings support the critics of very low inflation targets.     

Pre-recession wage inflation and the strength of the subsequent recovery

This study shows that the rate of wage inflation in the year before a recession is positively related to the rate of employment growth in the subsequent recovery. A possible explanation for this relationship is downward nominal wage rigidity. It is also found that the prior rate of wage inflation is not significantly related to the employment decline during the ensuing recession, suggesting that prior wage inflation has a greater impact on the strength of the recovery from a recession than on the severity of the recession.     

Does the Choice between Wage Inequality and Unemployment Affect Productivity Growth?

Abstract. We present a non-scale continuous-time overlapping-generations growth model that provides an explanation for why economies with relative wage rigidity feature higher unemployment, but not slower productivity growth, than economies with flexible wages. The compression of the wage distribution associated with relative wage rigidity slows down human capital accumulation and growth ceteris paribus . But unemployment among the low-skilled workers strengthens the incentives to invest in human capital and, hence, growth. The two effects are offsetting, and growth is independent of the prevailing degree of relative wage rigidity. This knife-edge result is robust with respect to some modifications of the model.     

Dynamic Model for Market Competition and Price Rigidity

This article presents a price floor model in which durability, unit costs and production period are factors in explaining price rigidity. This article elaborates that cost structure plays an essential role in resolving the inconclusive relationship between market concentration and price rigidity. When the industry is characterized by decreasing returns of scale, the degree of price flexibility decreases as market competition intensifies. The reverse is true when the industry exhibits increasing returns of scale. The factors that cause price rigidity also foster price adjustment asymmetry and price adjustment lag. During times of recession, the model exhibits upward price flexibility as costs increase, but downward price rigidity as costs decrease. Even under forward-looking expectations, the way in which firms adjust prices could look as though they have adaptive expectations. If price stickiness is a characteristic of market competition, then public policies determined by price level could be too drastic for firms in competitive markets.