Window-dressing in German inter-war balance sheets

German accounting rules value assets and liabilities asymmetrically and thus lead to grossly distorted balance sheets. In the inter-war debate on a reform of disclosure regulation, financial experts considered the (undisclosed) tax balance sheet, which had to be drawn up separately for the corporate tax assessment, as a paradigm for adequate financial disclosure. However, due to tax secrecy they were barred from analysing tax documents. Using archival evidence, we analyse tax balance sheets as a means of assessing the reliability of disclosed balance sheets of the inter-war period. It emerges that companies overstated their profits in the mid- and late-1920s, but grossly understated them in the Nazi economy.     

Firm balance sheets and monetary policy transmission

The functioning of internal capital markets in financial conglomerates facilitates a novel identification strategy of the balance sheet channel of monetary policy. We look at small subsidiary banks that are affiliated with the same holding company but operate in different geographical areas. These banks face the same marginal cost of funds due to internal capital markets, but face different borrowers as they concentrate their lending with small local businesses. Exploring cross-sectional variation in local economic conditions across these subsidiaries, we investigate whether borrower creditworthiness influences the response of bank lending to monetary policy. Our results are consistent with a demand-driven transmission mechanism that works through firm balance sheets and is independent from the bank lending channel.     

The Chrysler effect: The impact of government intervention on borrowing costs

This paper studies intercreditor conflict arising from political interference in the bankruptcy process. The U.S. government’s intervention in the 2009 reorganizations of Chrysler and GM purportedly elevated claims of the auto union over those of the automakers’ senior creditors in violation of bankruptcy priority rules. Critics predicted that businesses would experience an increase in their borrowing costs because of the risk that politically-powerful junior claimants might now leap-frog other creditors. We examine the financial market where this effect would be most detectible, the market for bonds of highly unionized companies. We find no evidence that bondholders of unionized firms reacted negatively to the government intervention and reject the claim that investors viewed the reorganizations as establishing a precedent for priority jumping by organized labor.     

Knowledge balance sheets in Austrian universities: The implementation,use, and re-shaping of measurement and management practices

The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of how a mandatory external (mostly) non-financial reporting process, labelled Knowledge Balance Sheets (KBS), is interpreted and used by different stakeholders in the Austrian university system. We are also interested in how the content and structure of the report transforms over time, how the possible link to the internal management control agenda is made, and how it reshapes organizational routines. The paper applies a critical approach where mostly non-financial, intellectual capital-related measurement, management, and reporting processes and structures are being questioned and discussed from different perspectives.This study is based on a qualitative case study approach where a number of semi-structured interviews have been conducted in various Austrian universities at different management levels over a period of approximately one year. In addition, interviews have been held with other stakeholders of universities (e.g., representatives from the ministry) and with members of the working group dealing with the KBS at the supra-university level. An inductively oriented methodology was chosen to obtain a deeper understanding of the current (management) interpretation and use of the KBS, both externally and internally. This paper aims to investigate the practice of KBS in order to build new knowledge relating to both externally oriented reporting and internally oriented management control.The findings indicate that as a reporting-tool, the KBS is embedded in a broader framework of governance and accountability regarding public universities, and interlinks the following different reporting-formats: (1) the KBS itself, (2) the performance report, and (3) the financial statement of accounts. Rectors, deans, and management accountants have highlighted different parts of the framework as important and problematic. However, it is obvious that governing via externally oriented reports and rules of accountability also has relevance to internal management decision and control agendas.Furthermore, there is an on-going debate about measuring, benchmarking, and standardizing qualities within and between universities. Scientific professionals generally question the viability of only one standardized reporting format for scientific outcomes, while the administrative staff usually promotes the necessity of such a report – for example, with respect to benchmarking routines. By analysing the practices triggered by KBS reporting, we contribute to the discussion of how performance (measures and targets) can be represented, interpreted, and acted upon within public organizations in general and within public universities in particular.     

Information in balance sheets for future stock returns: Evidence from net operating assets

In this paper, we show that the negative relation of net operating assets (NOA) with future stock returns first documented by Hirshleifer et al. (2004) applies to both net working and investing pieces of NOA, while it is mostly driven by asset NOA components. Predictability of returns is significant only for their unexpected parts (unrelated to past sales growth) and not uniform across different industries. We also find that only high (low) NOA firms with asset expansion (contraction) and weak (strong) background of profitable investments exhibit negative (positive) abnormal returns. Our evidence suggests that the NOA anomaly may be present due to a combination of opportunistic earnings management and agency related overinvestment.     

国有股减持的前因后果

世界银行的一位高级专家来华访问时曾说过,中国股市所有的问题都可以归结到"有2/3的股票不能上市流通",这就是中国的一股独大,即股权分置.所谓股权分置,是指中国股市因为特殊历史原因,在特殊的发展演变中,中国A股市场的上市公司内部普遍形成了"两种不同性质的股票"(非流通股和流通股),这两类股票形成了"同股不同价不同权"的市场制度与结构.目前进行的股权分置改革,是中国资本市场自建立以来最为重大的制度性改革.     

The effect of tax revenue budgeting errors on fiscal balance: evidence from the Swiss cantons

This study is an empirical analysis of the impact of direct tax revenue budgeting errors on fiscal deficits. Using panel data from 26 Swiss cantons between 1980 and 2002, we estimate a single equation model on the fiscal balance, as well as a simultaneous equation model on revenue and expenditure. We use new data on budgeted and actual tax revenue to show that underestimating tax revenue significantly reduces fiscal deficits. Furthermore, we show that this effect is channeled through decreased expenditure. The effects of over and underestimation turn out to be symmetric.     

The politics of government investment

This paper investigates the relation between corporate political connections and government investment. We study various forms of political influence, ranging from passive connections between firms and politicians, such as those based on politicians’ voting districts, to active forms, such as lobbying, campaign contributions, and employment of connected directors. Using hand-collected data on firm applications for capital under the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), we find that politically connected firms are more likely to be funded, controlling for other characteristics. Yet investments in politically connected firms underperform those in unconnected firms. Overall, we show that connections between firms and regulators are associated with distortions in investment efficiency.     

Measuring the balance of government intervention on forward and backward family transfers using NTA estimates: the modified Lee arrows

In this paper we propose a way to measure the degree of government intervention on forward—from parents to children—and backward—from adult children to elderly parents—intergenerational family transfers (IFT). We carry out a discussion about the possibility of using Generational Accounts (GA) and National Transfer Accounts (NTA) methodologies to generate indicators that could measure government intervention on both sides of IFT. As a result, we propose a modification of arrow diagrams used by Lee (in J. Human Res. 29:1027–1063, 1994b). An illustration of the results in the Spanish case indicates that the degree of government intervention on backward IFT is above that on forward IFT. This could be one of the main reasons to explain the Spanish low fertility rate.     

The impact of government ownership on dividend policy in China

We investigate the impact of State ownership on Chinese corporate dividend policy. We find that Chinese firms' dividend payout rates respond fairly quickly to earnings changes, and the average actual payout ratio for Chinese firms falls between the payout ratios for emerging-market and developed firms. These results are consistent with the dividend policies of developing economies in general. We also find that dividend payouts among dividend-paying firms, and the likelihood that a firm will pay a dividend, are increasing in State ownership. Our findings are consistent with the State's need for cash flow as a partial motivation for continued State ownership of a significant portion of the corporate economy, and support the agency and tax clientele explanations for dividend policy.     

“J”曲线效应与中美贸易收支

本文从实际汇率的角度研究了人民币实际汇率变动对中美贸易收支的短期和长期影响.实证分析的结果表明:人民币实际汇率和贸易收支之间存在长期协整关系;马歇尔-勒纳条件不能成立,即当前还不能通过人民币实际汇率来有效地调节中美贸易收支,也说明当前人民币兑美元的升值并不能有效地改善中美贸易顺差过大的局面;并证明了人民币实际汇率变动对中美贸易收支的影响存在"J"曲线效应.     

The impact of government deficits on money growth in developing countries

This paper investigates the relationship between government budget deficits and money growth in the developing countries for which reliabile data exist. It is sometimes suggested that it is more likely that money growth follows debt growth in developing countries, due to the embryonic state of capital markets and because the central bank generally comes under direct control of the minister of finance. Our results provide only mixed support for this contention, however. In the majority of countries in our sample there is no evidence that government deficits affect money growth. For high-inflation years there seems to be more support for a relationship between deficits and money growth.     

The benefits of expediting government gold sales

Additional gold can be made available either by mining at high cost (approximately $250 per ounce in 1997 dollars) or by mobilizing government stocks at zero cost. Governments own massive above-ground stocks but loan out only a small percentage of these stocks. Making all government gold available for private uses immediately through some combination of sales and loans maximizes total welfare from private uses, a consequence of the first welfare theorem. We simulate a calibrated version of our model to quantify the effects of liquidating government stocks on alternative dates. If governments sell immediately rather than never, total welfare increases by $340 billion; if they make an unanticipated sale in 20 years, $105 billion of that amount is lost. By depressing prices, such sales benefit depletion and service users but injure private owners of stocks above and below-ground. However, the injury to above-ground stock owners is more than offset by the benefits to service users—often the same individuals. Mine owners would be the principal losers; however, they could be compensated (twice over) from government sales revenue without any need for tax increases.     

人民币汇率变动对国际收支平衡的影响

从2005年1月至今，人民币对美元不断升值，但考察美元、日元、欧元和英镑四种货币，从2006年1月后，虽然人民币对这四种货币的综合比例关系是升值的，但人民币汇率基本不变。所以，2005年实行汇率体制改革以来，人民币对其他货币的汇率关系，并不像人民币兑美元那样不断升值。     

资本流动对中国国际收支的影响

本文从分析中国国际收支失衡局面的形成原因入手,主要探讨了资本流动在国际收支失衡中的决定性作用,指出这种资本流动形式具有较大的潜在不稳定性,在目前人民币汇率弹性还不够充分时,资本项目尤其是对于资本流出的管制不宜过快放开。     

规范政府采购工作的思考

自政府采购实施以来，充分证明了实行政府采购在节约预算支出、提高预算资金利用效果，防止“暗箱操作”，确保政府机构的高效运转等方面起到了积极作用。但是在采购过程中，我们看到有许多环节诸如采购方式的选择、评审专家的管理、采购合同的监督等方面尚需规范，这就要求我们不仅要建立健全政府采购的管理体制和运行机制，还要求我们在运作过程中力求规范，以真正达到“公正、公平、公开”。